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Iron Emissions Are Shifting a North Pacific Plankton Bloom

Wed, 08/06/2025 - 13:25

Smelting metals and burning coal vaporize small amounts of iron. Some of this iron wafts out of East Asia and into the North Pacific Ocean, where it supercharges phytoplankton growth, a new study found.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, used isotope analysis to estimate that around 39% of the iron in seawater sampled from the North Pacific during the springs of 2016, 2017, and 2019 came from human activities. This added iron is helping phytoplankton consume marine nitrogen faster, causing a long-term northward shift in a North Pacific algal bloom.

“The nitrogen is like a paycheck that they get every year, and when they have more iron, they spend through it faster.”

“The nitrogen is like a paycheck that they get every year, and when they have more iron, they spend through it faster,” said the study’s first author, Nick Hawco, a marine geochemist at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa.

Strong winds churn the waters of the North Pacific every winter, lifting nitrogen and other nutrients to the surface. As ocean currents carry the nutrients south toward a region of mixing gyres called the North Pacific Transition Zone, they fuel a phytoplankton bloom that extends from California to Japan. Tuna, humpback whales, and other sea creatures come to feast on the animals supported by the phytoplankton.

Over the spring and summer, the phytoplankton exhaust the nutrients brought south by currents. This depletion causes the southern extent of the bloom, called the transition zone chlorophyll front, to shift north each year, toward the nutrient-rich subarctic.

Have Iron, Will Travel

Hawco and his colleagues studied the metabolisms of phytoplankton captured from the North Pacific and found signs of iron deficiency. Iron is a limiting factor for phytoplankton growth in the region, the authors argued.

Though desert dust carried long distances by winds historically brought iron to the North Pacific, previous research has shown that industrial activities in East Asia—especially burning coal and melting metals—are a new and growing source of iron.

Between 1998 and 2022, steel production in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan quadrupled, and coal use more than tripled, according to data from the Global Carbon Project and the World Steel Association. During the same period, the southern edge of the bloom in April shifted north by about 325 miles (520 kilometers), according to satellite measurements of chlorophyll.

“This extra iron is leading to the nitrogen being drawn down earlier in the season, and it’s pushing these waters that eventually become nitrogen limited further to the north.”

In the northern parts of the phytoplankton bloom, chlorophyll concentrations increased, suggesting that the added iron is driving a more intense bloom, according to the authors. As a consequence, the southern edge of the bloom does not reach as far south during the spring, Hawco said. The nutrients that used to fuel it are likely being consumed by the more intense bloom up north, he said.

“This extra iron is leading to the nitrogen being drawn down earlier in the season, and it’s pushing these waters that eventually become nitrogen limited further to the north,” said Peter Sedwick, a chemical oceanographer at Old Dominion University in Virginia who was not involved in the study.

Northward movement of the bloom could have wide-ranging effects. Because the ecosystem supports abundant marine life, many anglers from Hawaii travel there to fish, Hawco said. As it shifts north, that trip is becoming longer and more expensive, he said.

Chlorophyll concentrations, a proxy for phytoplankton, shift seasonally. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

In addition, research suggests that climate change will reduce the amount of nutrients brought from the depths to the surface of the North Pacific. That will reduce the supply of nutrients brought south by currents, causing the southern extent of the bloom to move even farther north, Hawco and his colleagues said. Iron emissions and climate change are having synergistic effects on the transition zone chlorophyll front, they concluded.

Further research is needed to understand the impacts of this extra metal. The phytoplankton bloom sucks up carbon and helps maintain the balance of carbon dioxide between the ocean and the atmosphere, Sedwick said. Any change to the ecosystem could alter that balance, he added.

—Mark DeGraff (@markr4nger.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: DeGraff, M. (2025), Iron emissions are shifting a North Pacific plankton bloom, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250286. Published on 6 August 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

地震如何改变湖泊微生物群落

Wed, 08/06/2025 - 13:25
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. 本文是Eos文章的授权翻译。

当地震引起滑坡、泥石流或侵蚀时,它可以通过引入颗粒更大的沉积物来改变附近湖泊的组成,导致沉积物堆积更快,并影响碳封存。堆积在湖底的沉积物就像一个历史档案,记录了湖泊的生物、物理和化学变化,以及它们如何影响硅藻(微小的玻璃状藻类)等微生物。然而,人们对于地震引发的突然扰动会如何影响湖泊生态系统知之甚少。

Xue等人观察了喜马拉雅地区措普湖(Lake Tsopu)的长期变化。1900年至2017年期间,措普湖周围200公里半径内发生了63次5级以上地震。这里的高海拔、高寒气候和低人类活动使得措普湖成为研究这些地震引起的微生物和地球化学变化的理想场所。

2017年,研究人员从措普湖中心水深14米处采集了一个45厘米长的沉积物岩芯。然后,他们将岩芯分成41个1厘米长的样本进行分析。研究人员发现了1900年至1923年间发生的两次大地震(7.09级和7级)的标志。一个标志是深度为28到35厘米处的砂粒含量增加,另一个标志是,与较浅处(1到23厘米)相比,深度较深处(28到35厘米)的颗粒大小中位数增加。

研究人员按照两个时间段对沉积物岩芯进行划分,第一阶段包含地震事件(1886-1917),第二阶段包括地震后的几十年(1923-2017)。他们注意到,地震后硅藻数量急剧减少,这可能是因为沉积物和氮的增加。在第一阶段,硅藻的多样性暂时增加,而后在第二阶段减少,这可能是由于沉积物的横向运输。此外,底栖物种在地震后减少,而漂浮物种则激增。

根据措普湖的研究结果,研究人员估计,全球大约有15000个湖泊——约占全球湖泊数的1.1%和湖泊面积的1.7%——在大地震之后经历了类似的剧烈变化,改变了水面以下以及周围景观的生态系统平衡。(Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JG008723, 2025)

—科学撰稿人Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social)

Read this article on WeChat. 在微信上阅读本文。

This translation was made by Wiley. 本文翻译由Wiley提供。

Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Early-Career Book Publishing: Growing Roots as Scholars

Wed, 08/06/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Vox is a blog from AGU’s Publications Department.

Some may think writing or editing a scholarly book is something scientists only do later in their careers after several decades of research, teaching, and other professional experience. On the contrary, two scientists who completed book projects with AGU as early-career researchers found the years right after earning their PhD to be the ideal time to pursue this opportunity. In the first installment of three career-focused articles, these scientists reflect on the positive outcomes the experience had on their professional development.

Matthew Currell co-edited the book Threats to Springs in a Changing World: Science and Policies for Protection, which explores the causes of spring degradation and strategies to safeguard them. Rebekah Esmaili authored Earth Observation Using Python: A Practical Programming Guide, a book on basic Python programming to create visualizations from satellite data sets. We asked Currell and Esmaili about why they chose to complete book projects as early-career researchers, the unique strengths early-career researchers bring to such endeavors, and the impacts their books had on their careers.

How would you describe the early-career researcher stage in a scientist’s career?

MC: The first decade of a researcher’s career is a time of great discovery, when the world opens up in front of you. This period can also have its challenges and be quite daunting. It is when responsibility to identify the big research questions of our time, design quality research projects, and start supervising other researchers in training is handed to you all at once. Staying true to the motivations and passion that led you into research in the first place—and making sure you take time to keep listening and learning from those with experience, insight, and knowledge in your field—are key to success. 

Even though early-career contributions differ from those of senior researchers, they are still incredibly important for the community to continue thriving.

RE: Early-career researchers are the fresh growth on the knowledge tree, branching out in new directions. They have novel ideas and the enthusiasm to share them, and are quick to learn and adopt new concepts and technologies, so they help the tree gather nutrients and grow. It’s an exciting time to work alongside senior researchers who are astoundingly knowledgeable. A challenge is that early-career researchers may struggle to find their voice; but even though early-career contributions differ from those of senior researchers, they are still incredibly important for the community to continue thriving.

Why did you decide to write or edit a book?

RE: I did not plan on writing a book until I presented a scientific workshop, “Python for Earth Observation,” at an AGU annual meeting. I was inspired to simultaneously teach Python skills while showcasing the visually stunning, publicly available imagery produced by Earth satellites. I initially planned to offer the workshop only once, but the participants’ feedback showed strong interest in the material. Since then, I have presented the workshop every year that I could attend AGU. I decided to write the book to amplify my workshops and to make the content accessible to those unable to travel to conferences. Writing a book appealed to me because books can be widely shared and referenced, and can provide greater detail than is possible during a 4-hour workshop.

MC: The idea for the book first came in an email from my co-editor on the project, Dr. Brian Katz. As soon as I saw the suggested topic on freshwater springs, I was hooked and quickly became determined to make the book a reality. Having spent time with many people, including Aboriginal Traditional Owners from my home country, Australia, I knew how important springs are as a source of water but also a source of life, culture, and connection to the land. I also knew firsthand how many springs were under threat, and how urgent the task was of promoting good science and good policy in the way we manage these springs.

What impact did your book have on your career?

The biggest value and benefit from the book was all the fantastic people and relationships that it helped to build.

MC: I think the biggest value and benefit from the book was all the fantastic people and relationships that it helped to build. For example, the chapter on springs in the Great Artesian Basin at Kati Thanda was very well received by the Arabana Rangers, who are the custodians of the springs and the lands of northern South Australia. This relationship has grown, and now the Arabana Rangers are set to come and present their story of the springs at the upcoming International Association of Hydrogeologists Congress, where I’m organizing the program through the conference technical committee. 

RE: Writing a book was a huge project, but doing so helped me master the subject matter, as I had to think deeply about the content and consider how digestible it would be to a new programmer. It also gave me the confidence to take on challenges at work. For example, learning to break down tasks into smaller pieces during the publication process empowered me to apply for larger grants and projects. Project management at work felt less overwhelming because after writing a book, I had experience writing proposals, developing milestones, creating reasonable schedules, collaborating with multiple partners, and delegating chapter reviews.

What were the benefits of completing a book as an early-career researcher, as opposed to doing so at another point in your career? 

RE: Early-career scientists can have more empathy for the reader because they have more recent experiences learning new concepts built upon knowledge they have not mastered yet. My awareness of the audience was a strength, and I ended up writing the book I wished I had when I was getting started. I was sensitive to using dense, discipline-specific language that was challenging to understand. Instead, I made a conscious choice to use clear, kind, and encouraging language. If I had written the book later in my career, it might have resembled a traditional textbook, many of which make assumptions about what the reader should already know.

MC: The book helped me to get in touch with many fantastic people around the world working in freshwater springs research, and I had the chance to learn a huge amount from editing the different chapters that present case studies from around the world. These relationships have inspired new ideas and collaborations, and the circle keeps growing —for example, through the global network of researchers called “the Fellowship of the Spring.” Finally, completing a book and seeing it published also brought a huge sense of accomplishment.

—Matthew Currell (m.currell@griffith.edu.au, 0000-0003-0210-800X), Griffith University, Australia; and Rebekah Esmaili (rebekah.esmaili@gmail.com, 0000-0002-3575-8597), Atmospheric Scientist, United States

This post is the first in a set of three. Stay tuned for posts about leading a book project in the mid-career stage and as an experienced researcher.

Citation: Currell, M., and R. Esmaili (2025), Early-career book publishing: growing roots as scholars, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO255025. Published on 6 August 2025. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Nearly 94 Million Boulders Mapped on the Moon Using Deep Learning

Wed, 08/06/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets

Boulders are ubiquitous on the lunar surface. However, the lifetime of boulders on the surface is relatively short, lasting no longer than a few hundred million years, as the boulders are broken down and eroded in the space environment. Therefore, the presence of rocks indicates relatively recent activity. The rock abundance and size distribution can provide information on the evolution of the lunar surface and the development of the dust and rock fragments that comprise the regolith.

Rock abundance maps have been generated in the past by fitting models to thermal data. However, the rock abundance derived from the images provides greater detail about the size distribution of the rocks and their locations. Manually identifying and measuring the sizes of boulders on the lunar surface using images from orbiting spacecraft is very time consuming and laborious. As a result, a global map of boulders identified from images requires automated methods.

Aussel et al. [2025] use a deep learning algorithm to identify and measure the size of approximately 94 million boulders, providing the first near-global map of boulders larger than 4.5 meters across the lunar surface between 60° S and 60° N. The data show boulders are concentrated around impact craters and steep slopes. Distinct differences occur between the maria and highlands, with maria having higher densities of boulders, but with smaller average sizes. However, a significant variation in abundances is observed on different mare units suggesting differences in the properties of the volcanic rocks. The study also quantifies the size distribution of boulders and how the largest boulder sizes ejected by impact craters scale with crater size. While this study finds general agreement with the thermally derived maps, local differences are observed likely due to the sensitivity of the techniques to different rock sizes and geologic settings.

The study highlights how cutting-edge machine learning techniques can push the boundaries of what can be done in planetary science and can open up new avenues in research that previously were intractable. The end result is a rich dataset that has the potential to yield continued insights into the lunar environment, and the processes that shape that environment, as the research community studies the data further.  

Citation: Aussel, B., Rüsch, O., Gundlach, B., Bickel, V. T., Kruk, S., & Sefton-Nash, E. (2025). Global lunar boulder map from LRO NAC optical images using deep learning: Implications for regolith and protolith. Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 130, e2025JE008981. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JE008981

—Jean-Pierre Williams, Editor, JGR: Planets

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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The possible causes of the Dharali (Tharali) debris flow in Uttarakhand, India

Wed, 08/06/2025 - 07:19

A possible cause of the 5 August 2025 landslide is the failure of a large body of glacial material high in the valley above the village.

The imagery that is emerging after the 5 August 2025 debris flow in Dharali (Tharali), in Uttarakhand, northern India make very somber viewing. Melaine Le Roy posted this comparison to BlueSky, which illustrates the scale of the flow that has struck the village:-

BEFORE/AFTER the Dharali village debris flow today!

NASA Planning for Unauthorized Shutdown of Carbon Monitoring Satellites

Tue, 08/05/2025 - 18:10
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

For the past month, the Trump administration, via NASA’s Acting Administrator Sean Duffy, has been directing NASA employees to implement workforce adjustments and plan for the shutdown of dozens of missions and programs slated for cuts under in the President’s Budget Request to NASA. Doing so ahead of a Congressionally-approved budget for fiscal year 2026 (FY26) is tantamount to illegal impoundment of federal funds appropriated for the current fiscal year (FY25), according to an 18 July letter to Duffy signed by 64 members of Congress.

Now, despite warnings that their actions are illegal, NPR reports that Duffy and other senior NASA officials have continued to secretly direct NASA employees to draw up plans to end at least two major satellite missions specifically designed to monitor global carbon dioxide. Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2, a free-orbiting satellite, and OCO-3, which is attached to the International Space Station, are slated for defunding in the 2026 President’s Budget Request (PBR).

David Crisp, a retired NASA atmospheric physicist who was the principal investigator of the original OCO mission and was OCO-2’s science team leader, told NPR that he was contacted by several NASA employees who asked him pointed questions about the satellites that added up to mission termination plans.

 
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“What I have heard is direct communications from people who were making those plans, who weren’t allowed to tell me that that’s what they were told to do. But they were allowed to ask me questions,” Crisp said. “They were asking me very sharp questions. The only thing that would have motivated those questions was [that] somebody told them to come up with a termination plan.” (Crisp is also a Fellow of AGU, which publishes Eos.)

Two current NASA employees confirmed to NPR that NASA leaders were told to make plans to terminate projects that would lose funding should Trump’s PBR be enacted. The employees, who requested anonymity, also told NPR that agency leadership is seeking private backers to keep the OCO satellites running should they lose federal funding.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatories were designed specifically to monitor and map the global carbon budget, and they have provided valuable data about the drivers of climate change. The satellites also exhibited a surprising ability: monitoring plant growth. The mission has provided maps of photosynthesis around the world that have proved valuable tools for farmers and the agricultural industry, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Experts warn that farmers could lose access to those tools if the satellites are privatized or decommissioned.

“Just from an economic standpoint, it makes no economic sense to terminate NASA missions that are returning incredibly valuable data,” Crisp said.

Growing plants emit a form of light detectable by OCO-2 and OCO-3. Here, red, pink, and white indicate areas of growth and gray indicates areas of little growth. Credit: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio Budgets Pending

Both the Senate and House appropriations committees recently released FY26 funding bills for NASA for consideration by Congress. The House does seek to cut NASA’s overall budget, though far less than requested by the Trump administration. The House’s draft bill does not break down appropriations by NASA’s subdivisions or programs, so there is little information about whether OCO would be defunded should the House’s budget be adopted.

The draft budget from the Senate appropriations committee, which also doesn’t mention OCO by name, nonetheless offers more details about what funding they would approve. Under that budget framework, NASA would receive $24.9 billion total (up from $24.8 billion in FY25). NASA’s Science Mission Directorate would lose a modest amount of funding ($7.3 billion, down from $7.5 billion), and the Earth Science division, which operates OCO, would also lose some funds ($2.17 billion, down from $2.2 billion).

The Senate committee’s more detailed explanation may shed light on its plans for OCO and other Earth-observing missions:

  • “The Committee rejects the mission terminations proposed in the fiscal year 2026 budget request for Earth Science, Planetary Science, Astrophysics, and Heliophysics.” That’s about as explicit as they can be.
  • “In advancing the U.S. national interest, NASA should seek, to the extent practicable, to retain public ownership of technologies, scientific data, and discoveries made using public funds.” This directive runs counter to NASA’s plans to privatize satellites that Trump seeks to defund.
  • “Earth Science missions could help to understand the efficacy of carbon dioxide removal proposals, including to track carbon stocks and carbon cycling in aboveground biomass and coastal marine ecosystems.” The committee recognizes that Earth-observing satellites are important to the future of the planet.

Neither the House nor Senate appropriations bills have been taken up by either chamber of Congress. The bills still need to be passed by their respective chambers, reconciled into a single budget bill that passes both chambers of Congress, and signed into law by the president before FY25 ends on 30 September.

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Correction 5 August 2025: David Crisp’s position with NASA and his association with AGU have been corrected.

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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A very initial perspective on the 5 August 2025 debris flow at Tharali / Dharali in northern India

Tue, 08/05/2025 - 16:40

A massive landslide has destroyed a remote Himalayan village. Fifty or more people may have died.

Astonishing and terrifying footage has appeared today of a dreadful debris flow that struck the village of Tharali (also called Dharali in some places) in Uttarakhand today. The video has been widely shared on social media. This is a version on Youtube (the footage starts at about 6 seconds):-

There is confusion about the location of this event, but i believe it is at: [31.0406, 78.7811]. This is a Google Earth view of the village in question:-

Google Earth view of the site of the 5 August 2025 debris flow at Tharali in northern India.

News reports indicate that four people are known to have died and that about 50 people are missing, although there will be huge uncertainty in those numbers.

Whilst this event has been variously described as a flood or a flash flood, it is without doubt a debris flow (i.e. a landslide). The trigger appears to have been a cloudburst event. The exact mechanism to generate the debris flow is unclear at present, but the valley above Tharali is steep and rugged:-

Google Earth view of the valley that generated the 5 August 2025 debris flow at Tharali in northern India.

Note the marker that delineates Tharali – it is the valley above the village that has generated the flow. Possible causes could be multiple landslides that have combined to create a channelised debris flow, a single large landslide that transitioned into the flow, or a valley blocking landslide that collapsed. We won’t know until satellite or aerial imagery is available.

Rescue operations are going to be hampered by the blockage of other roads by the same rainfall event, the remote location and the low survivability of such debris flows.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Exoplanet Triggers Stellar Flares and Hastens Its Demise

Tue, 08/05/2025 - 13:06

As giant planet HIP 67522 b orbits its host star, it triggers its own doom. The planet orbits HIP 67522, a young star slightly larger than the Sun, in just 7 Earth days. At just 17 million years old, the star is far more active than our Sun, regularly flaring and releasing massive amounts of energy and stellar material.

By using observations from three exoplanet telescopes, scientists have found that these flares don’t occur at random times and locations like on our Sun. Instead, they are concentrated at a particular time in the planet’s orbit, which suggests that the planet itself could be triggering the flares. What’s more, the flares are also pointed at the planet, bombarding it with nearly 6 times more radiation than it would experience if the flares occurred at random.

“We want to understand the space weather of these systems in order to understand how planets evolve over time, how much high-energy radiation they get, how much wind they’re exposed to, what consequences that has on the evolution of their atmospheres, and, down the line, habitability,” said Ekaterina Ilin, lead researcher on the discovery and an astronomer at the Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON) in Dwingeloo.

Magnetic Interactions

Space weather is common in our solar system. At Earth’s relatively safe distance from the Sun, space weather manifests as aurorae and enhanced solar wind that, nonetheless, can wreak havoc on navigation and communication systems.

But in exoplanet systems, space weather can be far more deadly. Stars have strong magnetic fields, which are even stronger and more turbulent when stars are young. A star’s magnetic field lines stretch out from its surface, carrying superheated plasma along with them. Field lines regularly twist and tangle and coil until they eventually snap back into place, releasing stored energy and stellar material in a flare or coronal mass ejection (CME).

Astronomers have observed exoplanets orbiting so close to their stars that their atmospheres or even rocky surfaces are being blasted away by intense stellar radiation, winds, and flares. But for decades, astronomers have theorized that the connection between stars and close-in planets can go both ways.

NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory detected this X1-class solar flare from the Sun on 22 March 2024. This video was taken in extreme-ultraviolet light that highlights hot material in the flare. Credit: NASA/SDO

According to the theory, some planets orbit so close to their star that they are inside the star’s magnetic boundary, the so-called sub-Alfvénic zone. Such a so-called short-period planet could gather up magnetic energy like a windup toy as it orbits and release it in waves along the star’s magnetic field lines. When the energetic waves reach the star’s surface, they could trigger a flare back toward the planet.

The idea was born after the discovery of the first exoplanet—51 Pegasi b—in 1995 showed astronomers that planets could orbit extremely close to their host stars (51 Pegasi b has a 4.23-day orbit). Ilin said that although the theory has existed since the early 2000s, it has taken a while to find even one exoplanet that might fit the bill because most planets discovered thus far orbit much older stars with few flares and weak magnetic fields.

Too Close for Comfort

Ilin and her colleagues combed through thousands of confirmed and candidate exoplanets detected by the now-retired Kepler Space Telescope and the extant Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). They looked for young, flaring stars with close-in giant planets—a very broad search with hundreds of results—and narrowed their search down by looking for planets that might orbit within the sub-Alfvénic zone and for stars with strange flare timings.

“It was really a shot in the dark,” Ilin said.

After a long, tedious search, the team homed in on HIP 67522 and its two planets: planet HIP 67522 b, with its 7-day orbit, and a second giant planet with a 14-day orbit. The star’s flares were clustered together, but only barely within the margin of significance.

“The expectation was that it would have one of the strongest magnetic interactions based on how close the star is to the [inner] planet, how big the star is, how big the planet is, how young it is, [and] how strong a magnetic field we expect,” Ilin said. Despite the marginal significance, she thought, “Oh, actually, it might be worth a second look.”

“Statistically, almost impossible.”

The researchers observed the star with the European Space Agency’s Characterising Exoplanets Satellite (CHEOPS) for 5 years. They characterized 15 stellar flares during that period, a typical number for this size and age of star, but found that the flares clustered together when the innermost planet passed between the star and the telescope’s vantage point at Earth.

“When the planet is close to transit, the flaring goes up by a factor of 5 or 6, and that should not happen,” Ilin explained. “Statistically, almost impossible.”

“It is fascinating to see clustered flaring following the planet as it orbits its star,” said Evgenya Shkolnik, an astrophysicist at Arizona State University in Tempe who was not involved with this research. Some of Shkolnik’s past work investigated enhanced stellar activity in Sun-like stars with hot Jupiters, but those stars were much older and did not flare as much as HIP 67522. “It makes sense that more flares could be triggered through the same type of magnetic star-planet interactions we observed,” she said.

“It makes its life even worse by whipping up this interaction…and firing all these CMEs directly into the planet’s face.”

Like other short-period giant planets, HIP 67522 b likely would have been losing its atmosphere to stellar radiation no matter what because of how closely its orbits—indeed, the planet is about the size of Jupiter but just 5% its mass. But because the flares are synced with HIP 67522 b’s orbital period, Ilin’s team calculated that HIP 67522 b is experiencing roughly 6 times the stellar radiation that it would if the flares were randomly distributed, and the corresponding CMEs are pointed directly at it.

The team’s simple estimates show that because of this increased radiation, the planet is losing its atmosphere about twice as fast as it would otherwise.

“It makes its life even worse by whipping up this interaction…and firing all these CMEs directly into the planet’s face,” Ilin said. These results were published in Nature.

“This discovery is extremely exciting,” said Antoine Strugarek, an astrophysicist at the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission in Paris who was not involved with the research. “Such magnetic interactions are clearly the prime candidate to explain the observed phenomenon, and no other theories are really convincing to explain these observations, to the best of my knowledge.”

Expanding the Search

Strugarek explained that the magnetic interaction observed in the HIP 76522 system has a few analogs in our own solar system. The Sun experiences “sympathetic flares,” he said, in which a solar flare in one spot can trigger another one nearby—they account for about 5% of solar flares. And in the Jupiter system, the Galilean moons Io, Ganymede, and Europa propagate waves along their orbits that trigger polar aurorae on Jupiter.

For HIP 76522, “the theory is that the perturbation originates from the exoplanet. This is definitively a possibility, and extremely exciting for future research,” Strugarek said. He added that he would like to see future work constrain the geometry of HIP 76522’s magnetic field to better understand the star-planet connection.

“We need to scrutinize all the compact star-planet systems with large flares for such occurrences. This should be ubiquitous for very compact systems.”

He also wants to go back into the archives to look for more exoplanets like this. “Now that we have one tentative system, we need to scrutinize all the compact star-planet systems with large flares for such occurrences,” Strugarek said. “This should be ubiquitous for very compact systems.

Shkolnik added, “I would love to see dedicated observing programs at both higher- and lower-energy wavelengths, namely, in the far-ultraviolet, submillimeter, and radio wavelengths.” The far ultraviolet is more sensitive to flares, and finding more flares might confirm the theory that the planet is triggering them.

Thus far, HIP 76522 b is the only planet discovered to be magnetically influencing its star. Ilin said that when her team started looking into HIP 76522 b, it was the youngest short-period planet in their catalogs. TESS has since observed several more, and Ilin’s team is ready to investigate them.

The researchers also hope to flip the script on star-planet interactions. Instead of starting with an exoplanet and looking for clustered stellar flares, they want to first look for flare patterns and then find the planet causing them. The untested technique could detect exoplanets around stars that other detection methods struggle with: young, active stars.

“It is a bit of a statistically tough cookie,” she said, “but it will be quite exciting if we can make that happen.”

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: Cartier, K. M. S. (2025), Exoplanet triggers stellar flares and hastens its demise, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250284. Published on 5 August 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Eight Ways to Encourage Equality, Diversity, and Inclusion Discussions at Conferences

Tue, 08/05/2025 - 13:06

Conferences are key enablers of community building within and outside academic ecosystems, bringing together broad groups of individuals with different perspectives, experiences, and backgrounds. They can also provide safe and constructive environments for open discussions of cultural issues important to scientific communities, including those related to equality, diversity, and inclusion (EDI, also known as DEI) [Hauss, 2021; Zierath, 2016].

These discussions, which likely would not otherwise occur on a broad scale outside of meetings [Oester et al., 2017; Barrows et al., 2021], are particularly valuable in geoscience and climate research. Those fields are notably lacking in diversity, and within them, hearing the voices of marginalized groups is crucial for guiding effective evidence-informed public policy [Standring and Lidskog, 2021; Bernard and Cooperdock, 2018; Colquhoun and Fernando, 2020; Dowey et al., 2021]. Involvement in conference EDI programming by a wide swath of the scientific community can also help to ameliorate the academic “minority tax” that often disproportionately burdens scientists from underrepresented groups with the responsibility for driving change.

Many conferences now include EDI-related sessions [e.g., Fiedler and Brittani, 2021]. However, encouraging broad engagement with EDI- and community culture–focused sessions—both those looking inward within academia and those looking outward at how science affects society—at conferences remains a challenge. On the basis of our experiences organizing these types of sessions and the current literature on best practices, we propose eight changes that organizers and convenors can implement to boost attendance in, engagement with, and useful outputs from such discussions. These approaches group into three themes: focusing attention on EDI programming, facilitating open and productive discussion, and emphasizing evidence and solutions.

Focusing Attention on EDI Programming

A key part of generating wider engagement with equality, diversity, and inclusion (EDI) sessions at conferences is indicating that they are priorities for organizers and all attendees.

1. Be thoughtful about time-tabling. A key part of generating wider engagement with EDI sessions is indicating that they are priorities for organizers and all attendees (especially those in leadership roles), rather than ancillary topics of interest only to marginalized groups. Meeting convenors can signal this importance through effective time-tabling of EDI sessions, which can enhance attendance and engagement [Burnett et al., 2020].

Specifically, we advise against holding these sessions at the start or end of the day, when attendance tends to be lowest, especially for those with caregiving responsibilities. Likewise, organizers should be cognizant of how placing these sessions at the very end of conference programs may result in sparse attendance, unintentionally portray the session topics as less valuable to the community, and reduce their effectiveness in influencing change. Instead, we suggest that convenors schedule EDI-related sessions during the main program alongside prominent scientific programming and use plenary and keynote talks to highlight and support discussions of EDI.

2. Optimize physical placements. In addition to careful time-tabling of EDI sessions, organizers should consider how to maximize attendees’ opportunities to engage with related posters and talks by designating optimal locations for content sharing. EDI-related issues have an advantage over many scientific topics in that they are relevant to all attendees; hence, placing them in central, easily accessible locations where they are more visible can spur additional attention and discussion. Additional suggestions for placing EDI posters include displaying them outside main poster halls (e.g., in reception areas), allowing them to be presented multiple times (e.g., once in an “EDI” session and once in a “science” session), and fully integrating them into scientific poster sessions to help normalize conversations around culture in science.

Facilitating Open and Productive Discussion

3. Create welcoming and respectful spaces. Considering how personal issues related to EDI can be, it is crucial that conferences establish robust and agreed-upon codes of conduct and norms for related discussions, as well as mechanisms to enforce them if needed [e.g., Favaro et al., 2016]. Such frameworks help to ensure that conferences are spaces where attendees can present their ideas freely while being accountable for their contributions. The code of conduct and norms should also make clear that reasonable and respectful challenges of ideas (and recognition of how the conduct of these discussions affects others) are encouraged when discussing issues of community culture, in the same way they are in discussions of scientific ideas. Common terminologies for use within EDI discussions can also help to overcome differences in the meanings of words or concepts among countries and languages [Fernando et al., 2024], which can be especially important at climate and geoscience research conferences, given their international attendance.

Many conferences group all EDI-related contributions into large catchall sessions, which can make it challenging for attendees to identify best practices relating to specific aspects of EDI.

4. Avoid additional costs for attendees. Many conferences limit attendees to giving a single oral presentation, which can force them to choose between presenting their science (which often is more highly rewarded in academic systems) or their EDI-related work or experiences. Best practice has been showcased by some organizations, such as AGU, which now allows presenters to contribute two abstracts to its Annual Meeting. Nonetheless, the costs of submitting an additional abstract to a conference can impose a significant financial constraint on a researcher, especially if they must pay for poster printing in cases where only one oral contribution is permitted. When reviewing EDI- and community-focused abstracts, organizers should consider dispensing with single oral abstract submission rules, issuing fee waivers for these abstracts, or issuing small rebates in registration fees (e.g., $50) to partially cover poster printing costs.

5. Group EDI contributions by topic. EDI encompasses a wide range of specific subtopics, from school education to inclusion in graduate programs and beyond. However, many conferences group all EDI-related contributions into large catchall sessions, which can make it challenging for attendees to identify best practices relating to specific aspects of EDI. Organizers should solicit enough EDI contributions that they can group them by theme. Especially at larger conferences, having themes will help organizers reach the critical mass of posters and talks needed to hold parallel sessions focusing on different issues (e.g., one about geoscience education in schools and another about accessible fieldwork), hence maximizing the potential for useful discussions. The United Kingdom’s Royal Astronomical Society, for example, has demonstrated best practice in its larger meetings by soliciting contributions to specifically organized EDI sessions that are integrated into the main conference program but have different focuses (e.g., outreach, supporting students and postdocs).

Emphasizing Evidence and Solutions

6. Encourage sharing of data and applicable lessons. A major benefit of conferences is the opportunities they offer to develop new ideas in groups and to identify and optimize existing solutions that can be applied in new settings. Science departments and institutions often run dedicated programs to widen participation, increase diversity, and improve inclusivity, many of which include elements for monitoring and evaluating their success. However, these programs—and the qualitative and quantitative data they produce—are rarely discussed or presented in conference settings, limiting chances for shared identification of lessons learned and where else such lessons can be applied.

To call attention to the scientific basis behind effective EDI interventions, organizers should explicitly encourage contributions that showcase institutional programs and their evaluations. This encouragement might include asking presenters to share data reflecting how their intervention had positive outcomes or, conversely, why it was ineffective (and what lessons can be learned as a result). Organizers could also provide guidelines for how to present EDI work and outreach programs such that intervention successes and best practices can be shared clearly and potentially scaled for use in other institutions (e.g., by explicitly addressing issues of funding, time and added labor costs, and other logistical requirements). Furthermore, organizers should consider optimal formats for engagement around this information. Standard lecture-style talks, for example, may be less effective than town halls, open discussions, or breakout working groups.

Making an effective case for the need for broad interventions often requires providing quantitative evidence linking individual experiences to systemic and problematic issues.

7. Encourage presenters to link experience and evidence. Issues relating to EDI, scientific culture, and the academic community are naturally rooted in individuals’ lived experiences, and hence, presentations on these experiences often form a substantial portion of EDI sessions. As powerful as these presentations typically are, making an effective case for the need for broad interventions to scientists and decisionmakers (e.g., funding bodies) often requires providing quantitative evidence linking individual experiences to systemic and problematic issues.

Encouraging presenters in EDI sessions to frame their discussions in a scientific light when possible—for example, by presenting a clear synthesis of background literature and an evidence base for the work—can help foster positive reactions and productive decisionmaking for implementing change. Professional associations and conference hosts could, again, provide presenters with best-practice guidelines for discussing EDI topics (for example, encouraging the use of quantitative evaluation and significance testing), given that many EDI presenters are not social scientists by training.

8. Provide space and funding for additional community events. Society and conference leadership should also support their community members and attendees in organizing affiliated EDI-related events that do not fall within traditional conference programs of talks and posters. This support could include providing space or other accommodations (e.g., free refreshments) for groups to arrange meetups or social events that encourage community building and a sense of belonging. Or it could entail offering groups the opportunity to add their events to the main conference program, rather than organizing them on the periphery. When possible, support should also be offered for these groups to write and publish summaries of observations and outcomes from their EDI-related sessions—for example, through small grants funding the publication of white papers—to extend the reach and impact of their discussions.

Progressing Toward Greater Engagement

Enacting many of the above suggestions will come with financial, logistical, or workload costs for conference organizers. Waiving or reducing abstract fees for EDI-related abstracts, for example, would reduce revenue and must be balanced against other financial constraints and commitments, such as providing financial support to people who would otherwise be unable to attend.

These suggestions for change need not all be acted upon simultaneously. Gradual change, such as tackling the simplest improvements first, still represents progress.

Nonetheless, some suggestions (e.g., optimizing scheduling and physical placement of sessions and soliciting more EDI-related abstracts) should incur little to no additional financial cost and could be acted upon immediately. Others, such as developing guidelines for effective presentation of EDI talks and posters, will likely require more sustained effort over multiple conference cycles. Outside experts in EDI, for example, from the diversity committees of professional societies, may be able to help here.

Ideally, conference organizers would adopt all the outlined approaches—and perhaps find additional ways to spotlight and support EDI research and discussions at their events. Considering the many challenges and constraints of conference planning, though, it is important to note that these suggestions for change need not all be acted upon simultaneously. Gradual change, such as tackling the simplest improvements first, still represents progress and should encourage broader engagement in EDI sessions and conversations at scientific conferences. This engagement is especially vital in geoscience and climate science, where research often has inherent and significant implications for communities and, hence, where the presence of diverse voices is key to producing effective change.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Emily Ward and Becca Edwards for their helpful suggestions in compiling this article.

References

Barrows, A. S., M. A. Sukhai, and I. R. Coe (2021), So, you want to host an inclusive and accessible conference?, FACETS, 6(1), 131–138, https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2020-0017.

Bernard, R. E., and E. H. Cooperdock (2018), No progress on diversity in 40 years, Nat. Geosci., 11(5), 292–295, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0116-6.

Burnett, N. P., et al. (2020), Conference scheduling undermines diversity efforts, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 4, 1,283–1,284, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1276-5.

Colquhoun, R., and B. Fernando (2020), An audit for action, Astron. Geophys., 61(5), 5.40–5.42, https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/ataa075.

Dowey, N., et al. (2021), A UK perspective on tackling the geoscience racial diversity crisis in the Global North, Nat. Geosci., 14(5), 256–259, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00737-w.

Favaro, B., et al. (2016), Your science conference should have a code of conduct, Front. Mar. Sci., 3, 103, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00103.

Fernando, B., et al. (2024), Evaluation of the InSightSeers and DART Boarders mission observer programmes, Nat. Astron., 8, 1,521–1,528, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-024-02434-1.

Fiedler, B. P., and S. Brittani (2021), Conference critique: An analysis of equity, diversity, and inclusion programming, paper presented at 2021 ALA Virtual Annual Conference, Assoc. of Coll. and Res. Libr.

Hauss, K. (2021), What are the social and scientific benefits of participating at academic conferences? Insights from a survey among doctoral students and postdocs in Germany, Res. Eval., 30(1), 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1093/reseval/rvaa018.

Oester, S., et al. (2017), Why conferences matter—An illustration from the International Marine Conservation Congress, Front. Mar. Sci., 4, 257, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00257.

Standring, A., and R. Lidskog (2021), (How) does diversity still matter for the IPCC? Instrumental, substantive and co-productive logics of diversity in global environmental assessments, Climate, 9(6), 99, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9060099.

Zierath, J. R. (2016), Building bridges through scientific conferences, Cell, 167(5), 1,155–1,158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2016.11.006.

Author Information

Benjamin Fernando (bfernan9@jh.edu), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md.; and Mariama Dryák-Vallies, Center for Education, Engagement and Evaluation, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

Citation: Fernando, B., and M. Dryák-Vallies (2025), Eight ways to encourage equality, diversity, and inclusion discussions at conferences, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250291. Published on 5 August 2025. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Balancing Comparability and Specificity in Sustainability Indicators

Tue, 08/05/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Community Science

Evaluating progress toward sustainable agriculture is essential for assessing a country’s commitment to sustainability but remains highly complex, particularly given the varying socioeconomic conditions and natural endowments of countries worldwide.

Rich picture created by one of the breakout groups during the stakeholder workshop in Austria. Participants were asked to draw relevant elements of a sustainable agricultural system from the perspective of Austria and then add notes to the existing Sustainable Agriculture Matrix (SAM) indicator wheel with suggestions for relevant sustainability indicators. Credit: Folberth et al. [2025], Figure S15

A recent study by Folberth et al. [2025] represents one of the first attempts to address the critical challenge of balancing global comparability and national specificity in agricultural sustainability indicators. Leveraging the Sustainable Agriculture Matrix (SAM), an indicator system that provides consistent evaluations across countries, the authors co-evaluate the framework with Austrian stakeholders. This process reveals the limitations of current global indicator systems in capturing context-specific social, economic, and environmental nuances.

The study highlights the value of engaging diverse national stakeholders to identify gaps and proposes strategies to regionalize indicators without compromising global coherence. By advancing methods for co-creating regionally tailored frameworks, this research provides a roadmap for enhancing the relevance and applicability of sustainability assessments worldwide.

Citation: Folberth, C., Sinabell, F., Schinko, T., Hanger-Kopp, S., Lappöhn, S., Mitter, H., et al. (2025). Integrating global comparability and national specificity in agricultural sustainability indicators through stakeholder-science co-evaluation in Austria. Community Science, 4, e2024CSJ000092.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2024CSJ000092

—Xin Zhang, Guest Associate Editor, Community Science

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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The 15 July 2025 quick clay landslide at Portneuf in Canada

Tue, 08/05/2025 - 06:58

A quick clay landslide in the Quebec region has destroyed most of a farm and a local road.

Over the next few days I will try to bring the blog up to date with some of the major landslides that have occurred whilst I have been on leave.

To start, on 15 July 2025 an interesting quick clay landslide occurred at the Rivière-Blanche Est range, in Saint-Thuribe, in Portneuf, Canada. Radio Canada has an excellent piece on this event (in French) that includes images and videos. They have also posted this video (again, in French) that includes some very good aerial imagery of the site:-

This includes the still below:-

The 15 July 2025 quick clay landslide at Portneuf in Canada. Still from a video posted to Youtube by Radio Canada.

The location of this landslide is, I think, [46.69818, -72.15138]. This is a Google Earth image of the site collected in July 2024:-

Google Earth image of the site of the 15 July 2025 quick clay landslide at Portneuf in Canada.

The news reports that I have read do not highlight an obvious trigger for this landslide, but it is interesting to note that the toe is located on the outside of the river bend, where erosion is high. There had been a period of rainfall prior to the landslide, but this does not seem to have been exceptional.

No-one was killed or injured in the landslide, but there is substantial loss of farmland and, in all probability, the farm buildings. The road has also been destroyed. Quick clay landslides are a known hazard in this part of Quebec, but interestingly this site was not classified as being potentially exposed to landslides.

Acknowledgement

Thanks to loyal reader Maurice, and others, for highlighting this event.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Cave Deposits Reveal a Permafrost-Free Arctic

Mon, 08/04/2025 - 12:37

About 15% of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere is currently covered by perennially frozen soil known as permafrost. But that has not always been the case. As global temperatures fluctuated in Earth’s past, patches of that frozen soil periodically thawed and refroze.

“Permafrost is a huge reservoir of CO2, and thawing comes with repercussions because it feeds back into future warming.”

A recent study in Nature Communications shows that the Arctic was mostly free of permafrost 8.7 million years ago, when the average global temperature was 4.5°C (8.1°F) higher than it is today.

“Permafrost is a huge reservoir of CO2 [carbon dioxide], and thawing comes with huge repercussions because it feeds back into future warming,” said study coauthor Sebastian Breitenbach, a paleoclimatologist at Northumbria University. Arctic permafrost currently stores twice as much carbon as the entire atmosphere, and because the region is warming faster than the global average, those soils are susceptible to thawing.

In Search of Climate Archives

Breitenbach and his colleagues studied mineral cave deposits from northern Siberia, which is currently underlain by permafrost.

Speleothems such as stalagmites and stalactites form when mineral-rich water percolates through the ground and drips into cave openings, slowly leaving behind calcium carbonate that precipitates out of the water. They can’t grow when the ground above the cave is frozen solid because no water is able to seep through the soil. Any speleothems in the region must have formed when the ground was thawed.

The study was decades in the making. In the early 2000s, Breitenbach and his international group of colleagues were studying caves in a partially frozen region in southern Siberia. At the same time, they were looking for sites with speleothems in the heart of permafrost-covered regions farther north, turning to local communities for information about caves in remote areas. “We started asking hunters, teachers, politicians, bus drivers, anyone who would be out there in the outback,” Breitenbach said. Often, the team would visit a promising area only to find there were no caves there or, when there were caves, no useful speleothems inside them.

“Most of our information for the Miocene comes from marine sediments, so finding good terrestrial archives for this period is fantastic.”

After years of following rumors farther and farther north, they finally struck gold in 2014 at the Taba-Ba’astakh cliffs along the Lena River close to the Arctic Ocean. The team collected 14 speleothems from eroded caves high up in the cliffs and along the beach below.

Using the predictable rate of the decay of uranium into lead and the amounts of each of these isotopes in the samples, the study authors found that the cave deposits were formed 8.7 million years ago, in the late Miocene period.

“Most of our information for the Miocene comes from marine sediments, so finding good terrestrial archives for this period is fantastic,” said Dominik Fleitmann, a geologist and paleoclimatologist at Universität Basel who was not involved in the study. “There are not so many sites because erosion is our enemy. Most of the older deposits are eroded or difficult to date.”

Scientists’ ability to precisely date speleothems makes them incredibly useful as climate records, said Nikita Kaushal, a geologist at the American Museum of Natural History who was not involved with the study. “When you’re looking at past records, you want really good age control on when something happened and for how long, and information on as many climate and environmental parameters as possible.”

By studying the physical and chemical properties of speleothems, scientists can reconstruct the conditions present when the speleothems formed, such as the vegetation cover above, atmospheric circulation changes, local rainfall, droughts, and temperature.

Dima Sokol’nikov surveys a cave in the Taba-Ba’astakh cliffs. Credit: Sebastian Breitenbach

Using the proportions of bonds between certain isotopes, which are affected by the atmospheric conditions present when the mineral-rich water was flowing, the study authors established that average temperatures in the region were between 6.6°C and 11.1°C (44°F and 52°F) when the speleothems formed. That’s about 19°C–23°C (34°F–42°F) warmer than it is today.

Other studies of the same period found that global temperatures were 4.5°C higher than today at the time.

“We know from meteorological data that the Arctic is warming at about 4 times the global average,” Breitenbach said. “The underlying reasons are not entirely clear.” This phenomenon, called Arctic amplification, is likely due to a complex interplay of various factors, including loss of sea ice, air temperature inversion, and ocean heat transport.

A Vulnerable Carbon Pool

As permafrost thaws, the organic matter in the soil begins to decompose, releasing carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates 14–175 billion tons of CO2 could be released into the atmosphere by thawing permafrost for every 1°C of global warming.

It’s a process that’s already underway. According to scientists, the upper layers of permafrost were thawing in multiple areas in Svalbard, an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, in February 2025 as a result of exceptionally high temperatures. The thawing of permafrost is also influenced by several factors beyond temperature, Breitenbach said. “The most important ones are vegetation, snow cover, and wildfire activity.”

Even using conservative estimates, the study authors calculated that the complete loss of permafrost in the Arctic region could release 130 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere—and that’s accounting for only short-term emissions from the top 3 meters of thawed soil. “I was quite frightened when I saw these numbers,” Breitenbach said. “4.5° warming is at the extreme end of climate models. It’s not expected to be tomorrow or in the next decades. But even half of this is still drastic.”

Kaja Šeruga, Science Writer

Citation: Šeruga, K. (2025), Cave deposits reveal a permafrost-free Arctic, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250285. Published on 4 August 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The State of Stress in the Nankai Subduction Zone

Mon, 08/04/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

The Nankai subduction zone, in southern Japan, has hosted several magnitude 8+ earthquakes over the last 300 years, including the 1707 magnitude 8.7 Hōei earthquake, which, until the 11 March 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake occurred, was the largest historical earthquake in Japan. The most recent (large) earthquakes in the region were the 1944 magnitude 8.1 Tōnankai Earthquake, followed by the 1946 M8.1 Nankaido Earthquake. Under our current knowledge, the return period of these earthquakes is thought to be approximately 100-150 years.

As a consequence, the Nankai subduction zone is arguably the best instrumented and most extensively studied subduction zone in the world. An important part of this effort has been the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE), a major project of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP). NanTroSEIZE has spent over a decade drilling, sampling, imaging, and instrumenting this margin to observe and understand the seismogenic and tsunamigenic behavior of an active subduction plate boundary system.

Stress being the driver of faulting, Schaible and Saffer [2025] use data from borehole breakouts, a technique routinely used to infer underground stresses, observed during the NanTroSEIZE experiment. Their analysis focuses on two regions that penetrate major faults along the Nankai Trough: a major out of sequence thrust fault located about 25 kilometers landward of the trench, termed the megasplay (IODP Sites C0004, C0010, and C0022), and the décollement within a few kilometers of the trench (Sites C0006 and C0024).

Their results suggest that while the toe of the prism is understressed, the megasplay fault is near failure. This single result has important consequences for possible mechanical scenarios of how a megathrust earthquake could rupture up-dip all the way to the seafloor surface and, in consequence, on the possible scenarios of earthquake related tsunami generation for southern Japan.

Citation: Schaible, K. E., & Saffer, D. M. (2025). State of stress across major faults in the Nankai subduction zone estimated from wellbore breakouts. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130, e2024JB030242. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030242

—Alexandre Schubnel, Editor-in-Chief, JGR: Solid Earth

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Advances in Ecological Forecasting

Mon, 08/04/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Vox is a blog from AGU’s Publications Department.

Ecological forecasting is crucial for proactive environmental management and policy-making.

Ecological forecasting is crucial for proactive environmental management and policy-making. In 2001, Clark et al. identified ecological forecasting as an emerging imperative, providing a vision whereby predictions of the future with specified uncertainty enable the anticipation of changes in ecosystems. Ideally, forecasts are then integrated into natural resource decision-making to mitigate adverse effects, enhance resilience, and promote sustainability. Since 2001, the field of ecological forecasting has grown, highlighted by a rapidly increasing number of papers in the literature over time (Lewis et al., 2022).

To highlight both previously published and new research, we, with the support of the Ecological Forecasting Initiative, have launched a special collection titled, “Ecological Forecasting in the Earth System” that showcases advances in the field of ecological forecasting and provides guidance and inspiration for the broader research community.

The special collection brings together cutting-edge research that develops, tests, and applies models to forecast ecological dynamics across systems and scales or advances fundamental frameworks and methods associated with the iterative ecological forecast cycle (Dietze et al., 2018). The ecological systems and scales include marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, and dynamics at the population, community, ecosystem, regional, and global scales. Forecasting applications can include, but are not limited to, biogeochemistry, ecohydrology, water quality, phenology, biodiversity conservation, invasive species, vector-borne disease, land-use, and natural climate solutions. 

We are excited to present this joint special collection between the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the Ecological Society of America (ESA).

To encompass a wide range of environmental disciplines, we are excited to present this joint special collection between the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the Ecological Society of America (ESA), thereby allowing contributors to submit articles to the journal that is most appropriate for their field. Instead of siloing ecological forecasting in a single journal, we aim to promote the power of forecasting across disciplines, journals, and scientific societies. 

Here, we define ecological forecasts as near-term (i.e., a day to decade ahead) predictions that include estimates of uncertainty (Dietze et al., 2018). Forecasts should be evaluated using data, which can include the use of reforecast analyses (i.e., forecasts of conditions that have already passed but using only model inputs that would have been available if the forecast had been generated in real-time). Forecast uncertainty associated with predictions should be represented and communicated in submitted manuscripts, as absolute knowledge of the future does not exist. Uncertainty can arise from various sources, including the initial starting conditions of a model, model input and drivers (e.g., ensemble weather forecast inputs for an ecological model), model parameters, model structure, and model selection (e.g., multi-model ensembles). In this special collection, if model scenario uncertainty is presented, it should be provided in addition to other sources of uncertainty.

The larger ecological forecasting enterprise encompasses model development, data-model integration, computation, decision support, and education. Manuscripts that are not themselves descriptions and evaluations of ecological forecasts are welcome, provided they highlight direct connections to forecasting. These connections could highlight novel methodologies (e.g., machine learning, process-modeling, uncertainty quantification, digital twins, inverse modeling); interdisciplinary approaches (e.g., co-produced forecasts, integration with decision science, forecast dashboard design, forecast cyberinfrastructure); approaches for forecast delivery and education; and multi-forecast syntheses to enhance the accuracy, uncertainty representation, evaluation, and applicability of ecological forecasts. 

This collection aims to inspire further research and collaboration, ultimately contributing to more informed and effective environmental stewardship.

Overall, this special issue is timely as it coincides with a growing recognition of the need for predictive science in environmental decision-making. By showcasing the latest advancements and applications in ecological forecasting, this collection aims to inspire further research and collaboration, ultimately contributing to more informed and effective environmental stewardship.

The AGU journals included in the Special Collection are Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, Water Resources Research, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, and Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. The ESA journals included are Ecology, Ecological Applications, Ecological Monographs, Ecosphere, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, and Earth Stewardship.

To submit to an AGU journal please use the standard submission portal for the appropriate journal and select the collection title from the drop-down menu in the Special Collection field of the submission form. To submit your manuscript to an ESA publication, use the standard submission portal and indicate the collection title in the cover letter. Queries to the organizers to share your topic proposal and/or abstract prior to submission are encouraged through our inquiry form.

—R. Quinn Thomas (rqthomas@vt.edu, 0000-0003-1282-7825), Virginia Tech, United States, Associate Editor of JGR: Biogeosciences and special collection organizer; Cayelan C. Carey (0000-0001-8835-4476), Virginia Tech, United States, special collection organizer; Eric R. Sokol (0000-0001-5923-0917), National Ecological Observatory Network, United States, special collection organizer; Melissa A. Kenney (0000-0002-2121-8135), University of Minnesota, United States, special collection organizer; Michael C. Dietze (0000-0002-2324-2518), Boston University, United States, special collection organizer; and Marguerite A. Xenopoulos (0000-0003-2307-948X), Trent University, Canada, Editor-in-Chief of JGR: Biogeosciences

Citation: Thomas, R. Q., C. C. Carey, E. R. Sokol, M. A. Kenney, M. C. Dietze, and M. A. Xenopoulos (2025), Advances in ecological forecasting, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO255024. Published on 4 August 2025. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A Solar Wind Squeeze May Have Strengthened Jovian Aurorae

Fri, 08/01/2025 - 12:01
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets

Spectacular aurorae dance and shimmer nearly continuously at Jupiter’s poles. These grand displays are driven by energetic particles that are funneled toward the poles within Jupiter’s vast magnetosphere, or the area of space affected by the planet’s magnetic field. These particles then stream down toward the Jovian surface, setting atmospheric molecules aglow. Jupiter’s aurorae occur mainly at ultraviolet wavelengths and are hundreds of times more energetic than Earth’s.

Sometimes, Jupiter’s aurorae grow much brighter for hours or days at a time. Potential causes may involve the solar wind’s influence on the magnetosphere or the dynamics of energetic particles spewed into space by Jupiter’s volcanic moon Io. However, clarifying the solar wind’s role in any one brightening event would require taking simultaneous measurements of Jupiter’s magnetosphere and aurorae and their relationship with the solar wind—a difficult undertaking.

Recently, NASA’s Juno mission has made such simultaneous measurements possible. Giles et al. used data collected by the Jupiter-orbiting spacecraft to study how the gas giant’s ultraviolet aurorae responded when its magnetosphere was temporarily but dramatically compressed to a smaller size on 6 and 7 December 2022. Compression events happen from time to time and are normal, but this one was stronger than almost any previously observed.

Data from two of Juno’s onboard instruments—the Jovian Auroral Distributions Experiment (JADE) and Waves—suggest that as Juno neared Jupiter in its elliptical orbit on 6 December, the spacecraft was overtaken by the outer edge of the shrinking magnetosphere before later reentering it closer to Jupiter.

Additional data from modeling efforts suggest that just as sometimes seen with Earth’s magnetosphere, the extreme compression was caused by a sudden intensification of the solar wind that exerted a powerful squeeze on Jupiter’s magnetosphere.

This squeeze coincided with a major spike in ultraviolet auroral emissions. Another of Juno’s instruments, its ultraviolet spectrograph, measured the aurora’s peak power at this time to be 12 terawatts—6 times its baseline power level.

Given the coincident timing of these rare events, the researchers concluded that the powerful auroral display was likely triggered by the major solar wind shock compressing the magnetosphere. Further research could clarify the mechanisms by which compression can boost the aurora and explore additional processes that could trigger brightening events. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JE009012, 2025)

—Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Citation: Stanley, S. (2025), A solar wind squeeze may have strengthened Jovian aurorae, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250281. Published on 1 August 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

As the Arctic Warms, Soils Lose Key Nutrients

Fri, 08/01/2025 - 12:00

Arctic and subarctic soils store a significant proportion of Earth’s carbon. But rising temperatures could drain these soils of nitrogen—a key nutrient. The loss could reduce plant growth, limiting the soils’ ability to store carbon and amplifying global warming, according to a new study.

High-latitude soils store vast amounts of carbon because cold temperatures slow microbial activity. Though plants produce organic matter through photosynthesis, microorganisms can’t consume it fast enough, leading to its accumulation over time. Scientists have long worried that a warmer Arctic would accelerate microbial activity, releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (CO2). But they also hoped that warmer temperatures would stimulate plant growth, which would reabsorb some of the carbon and partially offset these emissions.

The new research shows that the latter scenario is very unlikely because warming causes soils to lose nitrogen, a loss that could inhibit plant growth.

“We didn’t expect to see nitrogen loss.”

The findings come from a decade-long experiment in a subarctic grassland near Hveragerði, Iceland. In 2008, a powerful earthquake altered geothermal water flows in the region, turning previously average patches of soil into naturally heated zones with temperature gradients ranging from 0.5°C to 40°C above previous levels. The event created a unique natural laboratory for observing how ecosystems respond to long-term warming.

Using stable nitrogen-15 isotopes to trace nutrient flows in the landscape, the researchers found that for every degree Celsius of warming, soils lost between 1.7% and 2.6% of their nitrogen. The greatest losses occurred during winter and early spring, when microbes remained active but plants were dormant. During this time, nitrogen-containing compounds such as ammonium and nitrate were released into the soil, but with plants unable to absorb them, they were lost by either leaching into groundwater or escaping into the atmosphere as nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas nearly 300 times more potent than CO2.

The findings were published in a paper in Global Change Biology.

“We didn’t expect to see nitrogen loss,” said Sara Marañón, a soil scientist at the Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications in Spain and the study’s first author. “The soil’s mechanisms to store nitrogen are breaking down.”

A Leaner, Faster Ecosystem

The researchers also found that warming weakened the very mechanisms that help soils retain nitrogen. In warmer plots, microbial biomass and the density of fine roots—both key to nitrogen storage—were much lower than in cooler plots. Though microbes were less abundant, their metabolism was faster, releasing more CO2 per unit of biomass. Meanwhile, plants struggled to adapt, lagging behind in both growth and nutrient uptake.

“Microbial communities are able to adapt and reach a new equilibrium with faster activity rates,” Marañón said. “But plants can’t keep up.”

“This is a not-so-optimistic message.”

Heightened microbial metabolism initially results in greater consumption of the nitrogen and carbon available in the soil. After 5 or 10 years, however, the system appears to reach a new equilibrium, with reduced levels of organic matter and lower fertility. That shift suggests that warming soils may transition to a permanently less fertile state, making it harder for vegetation to recover and leading to irreversible carbon loss.

Scientists have traditionally thought that as organic matter decays faster in a warmer climate, the nitrogen it contains will become more available, leading to increased productivity, said Erik Verbruggen, a soil ecologist at the University of Antwerp in Belgium who was not involved in the study. “This paper shows that actually, this is not happening.”

Instead, nitrogen is being leached out of the soil during the spring, making it unavailable for increased biomass production. “This is a not-so-optimistic message,” Verbruggen said.

An Underestimated Source of Greenhouse Gases

With Arctic regions warming faster than the global average, this disruption to the nutrient cycle could soon become more apparent. Nitrogen and carbon loss from cold-region soils may represent a significant and previously underestimated source of greenhouse gas emissions—one that current climate models have yet to fully incorporate.

The researchers periodically returned to the warm grassland near Hveragerði, Iceland, to measure nitrogen. Credit: Sara Marañón

The researchers plan to explore the early phases of soil warming by transplanting bits of normal soils into heated areas and also to investigate how different soil types respond to heat. Marañón noted that the Icelandic soils in the study are volcanic in origin and very rich in minerals, unlike organic peat soils common in other Artic regions.

“Arctic soils also include permafrost in places like northern Russia and parts of Scandinavia, and they are the largest carbon reservoirs in the world’s soil,” Verbruggen said. The soils analyzed in this research, on the other hand, were shallow grassland soils. “They are not necessarily representative of all Arctic soils.”

Still, Verbruggen added, the study’s findings highlight the delicate balance between productivity and nutrient loss in these systems.

Soil’s abundant carbon reserves make it a major risk if mismanaged, Marañón said. “But it can also become a potential ally and compensate for CO2 emissions.”

—Javier Barbuzano (@javibar.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Barbuzano, J. (2025), As the Arctic warms, soils lose key nutrients, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250282. Published on 1 August 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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What Goes Up Must Come Down: Movement of Water in Europa’s Crust

Thu, 07/31/2025 - 14:11
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets

Lakes that form on top of glaciers on Earth (called supraglacial lakes) have been observed to drain downwards when a fracture forms.  The fracture may further propagate through a process called hydrofracturing, where additional pressure is caused by the weight of the overlying water. 

Europa is a moon of Jupiter with a subsurface ocean under an outer icy lithosphere that is likely tens of kilometers thick. Taking this glacial lake analogy to Europa, Law [2025] investigates whether this process was likely to play a role in perched water bodies in Europa’s icy shell. The perched water bodies, those formed inside of the ice shell, could be created through either convective upwellings in Europa’s icy shell or through an impact to the surface. 

Illustration of scenarios discussed for perched water bodies and how they may evolve over time. Upper row: possible evolution of a perched water body that formed through convection or other in-shell processes. The collapse of the shell above the water may enable downward hydrofacturing by weakening the shell above. Lower panel: possible evolution of a perched water body that formed as a result of an impact, as an alternative way to weaken the upper shell. Credit: Law [2025], Figure 1

The author concludes that downward hydrofracture and drainage of liquid water from perched water bodies on Europa are possible if the overlying ice lithosphere is thin or mechanically weak. Such a condition might occur if there is a perched water body below a broken-up region of crust (called chaos regions on Europa) or shortly after an impact crater forms. 

If hydrofracturing is possible, this may provide a means to transport melt from near the surface of Europa to deeper parts of the icy crust, or potentially all the way to the subsurface ocean.  The movement of melt and other elements or minerals carried with it may affect the habitability of Europa by bringing nutrients and chemical disequilibria to the subsurface ocean.

Citation: Law, R. (2025). Rapid hydrofracture of icy moon shells: Insights from glaciology. Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 130, e2024JE008403. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JE008403

—Kelsi Singer, Associate Editor, JGR: Planets

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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There’s a New Record for the Longest Lightning Flash

Thu, 07/31/2025 - 13:44
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515 miles—roughly the distance from Washington, D.C. to Detroit, one-third the length of the Colorado River, and now, the longest lightning bolt ever recorded.

That’s right: A new analysis of satellite data has revealed that a 22 October 2017 storm over the U.S. Midwest created a lightning bolt that reached 829 kilometers (515 miles), from eastern Texas to nearly Kansas City. The record-setting bolt lasted about 7 seconds. 

The record was certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the weather agency of the United Nations, and entered into their World Weather and Climate Extremes Archive.

Researchers discovered the lightning bolt while analyzing lightning detection data from NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite. They published their findings in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society today. 

Imagery from the GOES-16 satellite shows the record-breaking lightning bolt. Red circles mark positively charged subsidiary branches of lightning, and blue circles mark negatively charged subsidiary branches. Credit: World Meteorological Organization, American Meteorological Society, Peterson et al. 2025, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0037.1

The 515-mile-long bolt is considered a megaflash, which refers to lightning that reaches at least 100 kilometers (62 miles). Megaflashes extend through the clouds, initiating hundreds of cloud-to-ground bolts along the way. The flash from the 2017 storm created more than 116 cloud-to-ground offshoots seen in the above map as blue and red dots.

 
Related

Less than 1% of storms create megaflash lightning; most flashes reach less than 16 kilometers (10 miles). 

Still, most people don’t realize how far from a storm lightning can strike. “The storm that produces a lightning strike doesn’t have to be over top of you,” Randy Cerveny, a geographer at Arizona State University and coauthor of the new report, said in a press release

Historically, scientists have detected lightning using ground-based networks that estimate location and speed based on the time it takes radio signals emitted by lightning to reach antennas. Satellite-based lightning detectors are a relatively recent addition to atmospheric scientists’ toolkit, and allow researchers to detect lightning continuously on continent-scale distances.

The previous record certified by the WMO was a flash over the southern United States and the Gulf of Mexico measured by satellite sensors to be 768 kilometers (477 miles) long. 

“It is likely that even greater extremes still exist, and that we will be able to observe them as additional high-quality lightning measurements accumulate over time,” Cerveny said.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story idea about science or scientists? We’re listening! Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Warming Winters Sabotage Trees’ Carbon Uptake

Thu, 07/31/2025 - 12:19

Since 2013, a small plot of forest in northern New Hampshire has been heated with buried cables, an experiment meant to simulate the effects of climate change on soil temperatures. Now, after a decade of artificial warming, scientists are getting a glimpse into how temperate forests may change in the future.

Previous studies of temperate forests indicated that climate change might accelerate tree growth during spring and summer growing seasons, increasing the volume of carbon that the world’s trees store and making them a critical player in fighting climate change. But a warmer world will also have warmer winters and less snow, which damage those same trees.

A new study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, indicates that changing winters could damage trees enough to offset the growth benefits of warmer temperatures. Climate models don’t take this offset into account and may be overestimating the ability of forests in the northeastern United States to fight climate change.

“Winter climate change in systems that are adapted to snow and its insulation is going to cause a reduced ability to sequester carbon,” said Pamela Templer, a forest ecologist at Boston University and a coauthor of the new study. 

Hot and Cold

To test how changing snow behavior in a warming temperate forest might affect carbon sequestration, the research team measured biomass changes in red maple trees in three types of plots: one plot treated with warming cables during the growing season, one treated with both warming and recurring freeze-thaw cycles in the winter, and reference plots with no treatments.

Each time it snowed from 2013 to 2022, researchers shoveled the insulating snow off the second plot, exposing soil to the freezing air for 72 hours. Then, they thawed the soil for 72 hours with warming cables. 

Researchers measured changes in biomass, a proxy for carbon storage, with metal bands that record the diameter of trunks.

The freezing and thawing cycles simulated in the study will likely become more common with climate change, said Kyle Arndt, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center who was not involved in the new study. “In these kinds of northern forests, this is expected to happen more often.”

“What’s striking here is that when you add the effect of winter climate change, the difference [between warmed and unwarmed plots] disappears.”

Those cycles of freezing and thawing damage tree roots, limiting their ability to take up nutrients, including nitrogen, meaning the trees can’t grow as much as they would following a more stable winter.

The plot of trees that was warmed in the growing season sequestered 63% more carbon than the reference plots. But the plot with both warmer growing seasons and additional freeze-thaw cycles sequestered just 31% more. Analysis of the growth data showed that the difference between this plot and the reference plot (with no warming or freeze-thaw cycles) was not statistically significant.

“What’s striking here,” Templer said, “is that when you add the effect of winter climate change, the difference [between warmed and unwarmed plots] disappears.”

The results align with a previous study from the same research group showing a 40% reduction in aboveground tree growth for sugar maple trees when insulating snow was removed.

Arndt said the results made sense and that the particularly long dataset added credence to the findings. 

The results may also have implications for nutrient cycling on the ecosystem scale, said Carol Adair, a forest ecologist at the University of Vermont who was not involved in the new study. When roots are damaged by freeze-thaw cycles, all the nitrogen they can’t absorb is left in the soil and flushed into watersheds during the spring melt. 

“We see a lot of nutrient loss happening [in the winter],” Adair said. Nutrients lost to surface waters could spur harmful algal blooms and even create a feedback loop that further decreases forest growth. Climate change–driven rain, rain-on-snow, and snowmelt events during warmer winters exacerbate the issue.

Forests’ Role in Carbon Storage

The results suggest that current models of the climate system may be overestimating how much carbon mid- to high-latitude forests will be able to sequester over the next couple of centuries, according to the authors.

“Without including these freeze-thaw cycles, they’re going to be overestimating [carbon storage] over time.”

The researchers searched existing model projections and could not find any that included the complex freeze-thaw dynamics identified in the plots, said Emerson Conrad-Rooney, a doctoral student and ecologist at Boston University and lead author of the new study. “How winter climate change can impact forest processes is not typically incorporated.”

“The models are really only including some of these net positive impacts” of climate change on northern forest biomass, Arndt said. “Without including these freeze-thaw cycles, they’re going to be overestimating [carbon storage] over time.”

“If we want to understand how future forests are going to sequester carbon, we need to know mechanistically how they’re going to behave [under a changing climate],” Templer said.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2025), Warming winters sabotage trees’ carbon uptake, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250278. Published on [DAY MONTH] 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Three Magmatic Pulses Helped Rifting Transform into Seafloor Spreading

Wed, 07/30/2025 - 19:04
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

More than a century ago, Alfred Wegener proposed that the Atlantic Ocean formed after North America drifted away from Africa and Eurasia. Much later, the theory of plate tectonics explained this movement as resulting from the formation of new oceanic crust in the space between the continents. But how did the the initial rift between the landmasses form, and how did it transition into a mid-ocean spreading ridge? Answers to these questions have remained elusive, partly because the time history of the rifting process has been difficult to decipher.

Foster-Baril et al. [2025] shed new light on the “rift to drift” transition by dating igneous rocks across a broad swath of the North American margin. They find that continental breakup and the subsequent transition to seafloor spreading was accomplished by three major pulses of magmatism. The first pulse was the largest, and involved extensive melting of mantle from below as the rift opened across a wide area. The second and third pulses, which were smaller, helped to localize the extensional deformation into a confined region. This localization facilitated the transition to symmetric seafloor spreading.

This sequence suggests that continental breakup happens across a much broader area, and over a longer time period, than was previously thought. It is still unclear if other continental breakup events also featured a series of magmatic pulses, or if the North American margin was unique in this way. Can this sequence also help us to understand “failed rifts” that never transition into seafloor spreading events? More studies that examine magmatism across broad regions of a rifting zone can help to answer such questions.

Citation: Foster-Baril, Z. S., Hinshaw, E. R., Stockli, D. F., Bailey, C. M., & Setera, J. (2025). Duration and geochemical evolution of Triassic and Jurassic magmatism along the Eastern North American Margin. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 26, e2024GC011900.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GC011900

—Clinton P. Conrad, Associate Editor, G-Cubed

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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