GRL

Eastern North America was constructed over several Wilson cycles, culminating in the breakup of Pangea. Previous seismological imaging lacked the resolution to depict precisely how ancient tectonic boundaries manifest throughout the lithosphere, how continental breakup modified the plate, or how ongoing mantle dynamics shapes the continental margin. We present a high-resolution, plate-scale seismic tomography model of the eastern US by combining an unprecedented suite of complementary data sets in a Bayesian framework. These data provide detailed resolution from crust to asthenosphere, identifying the base of the lithosphere and mid-lithospheric discontinuities. The plate thins in steps that align with ancient orogens. The lithospheric step at the Appalachian front is associated with cells of mantle upwellings, likely edge-driven convection, that erode the base of the plate and shape modern Appalachian topography. Low-velocity structures in the lithospheric-mantle align with the Grenville front and may be remnants of Rodinia assembly.

The application of deep-learning-based seismic phase pickers has surged in recent years. However, the efficacy of these models when applied to monitoring volcano seismicity has yet to be fully evaluated. Here, we first compile a data set of seismic waveforms from various volcanoes globally. We then show that the performances of two widely used deep-learning pickers deteriorate systematically as the earthquakes' frequency content decreases. Therefore, the performances are especially poor for long-period earthquakes often associated with fluid/magma movement. Subsequently, we train new models which perform significantly better, including when tested on two data sets where no training data were used: volcanic earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone and tectonic low-frequency earthquakes along the Nankai Trough. Our model/workflow can be applied to improve monitoring of volcano seismicity globally while our compiled data set can be used to benchmark future methods for characterizing volcano seismicity, especially long-period earthquakes which are difficult to monitor.

Seasonal hindcasts have previously been demonstrated to show multi-decadal variability in skill across the twentieth century in indices describing El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which drives global seasonal predictability. Here, we analyze the skill of predicting ENSO events' magnitude and spatial pattern, in the CSF-20C coupled seasonal hindcasts in 1901–2010. We find minima in the skill of predicting the first (in 1930–1950) and second (in 1940–1960) principal components of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. This minimum is also present in the spatial correlation of SSTs, in 1930–1960. The skill reduction is explained by lower ENSO magnitude and variance in 1930–1960, as well as decreased SST persistence. The SST skill minima project onto surface winds, leading to worse predictions in coupled hindcasts compared to hindcasts using prescribed SSTs. Questions remain about the offset between the first and second principal components' skill minima, and how the skill minima impact the extra-tropics.

Volcano GPS networks can capture vital information during volcanic unrest to aid with hazard assessment and eruption forecasting, but can be hindered by their discrete point locations and possibly miss key spatial information. We show how numerical models can reveal controls on spatial deformation signal intensity compared against GPS network design. Using the GPS network at Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat, and a range of models, we explore expected surface deformation patterns. Peak horizontal deformation is located offshore, highlighting the difficulties with geodetic monitoring on small ocean-island volcanoes. Onshore areas where the deformation signal is expected to be high are also identified. At SHV, topography plays a greater role in altering the relative distribution of surface displacement patterns than subsurface heterogeneity. Our method, which can be adapted for other volcanoes, highlights spatial areas that can be targeted for effective GPS station placement to help improve deformation monitoring efficiency.

A M6.8 earthquake struck the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco on 8 September 2023, ending a 63-year seismic silence. We herein attempt to clarify the seismogenic fault and explore the underlying mechanism for this seismic event based on multiple data sets. Utilizing probabilistic Bayesian inversion on interferometric radar data, we determine a seismogenic fault plane centered at a depth of 26 km, striking 251° and dipping 72°, closely aligned with the Tizi n’Test fault system. Given a hypocenter at the Moho depth, the joint inversion of radar and teleseismic data reveals that the rupture concentrates between depths of 12 and 36 km, offsetting the Mohorovičić discontinuity (Moho) at ∼32 km. Considering a strong link between magma activity and failure in lower crust, we propose that the triggering of the earthquake possibly was mantle upwelling that also supports the high topography.

The Arabian Sea (AS) hosts the world's thickest and most intense oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), and previous studies have documented a dramatic decline of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the northeastern AS in recent decades. In this study, using the recently released data from Biogeochemical-Argo floats, we found a surprising trend of recovery in deoxygenation within the core region of the OMZ in the AS (ASOMZ) since 2013. The average DO concentration increased by approximately threefold, from ∼0.63 μM in 2013 to ∼1.68 μM in 2022, and the thickness of the ASOMZ decreased by 13%. We find that the weakening of Oman upwelling resulting from the weakening of the summer monsoon is the main driver of oxygenation in the ASOMZ. In addition, the reduction of primary production linked to warming-driven stratification reinforces deoxygenation recovery at depth.

The detection of preslip, occurring hours to days before a large earthquake, using geodetic measurements has been a major focus in earthquake prediction research. A recent study claims to have detected a preseismic signal interpreted as accelerating slip near the hypocenter of the 2011 great Tohoku-oki earthquake, starting approximately 2 hr before the mainshock. This claim is based on a stacking procedure using GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) data. However, a follow-up study demonstrated that the signal disappeared when specific GNSS noise was corrected. Here we utilize tiltmeter records, independent on GNSS, to check whether the claimed preseismic signal is detected using a similar stacking procedure. Our results show no acceleration-like deformation from 2 hr before the mainshock. This indicates that no precursory slip exceeded the noise level of the tilt data, and if any preslip occurred, it was less than 5.0 × 1018 Nm in seismic moment.

The atmospheric large-scale environment determines the occurrence of local extreme precipitation, and it is unclear how climate change affects this relationship. Here we investigate the present-day relationship between large-scale circulation types (CTs) and daily precipitation extremes over Scandinavia and its future change. A 50-member EC-Earth3 large ensemble is used to assess future changes against internal variability. We show that CTs are related to extreme precipitation over the entire domain. The intensity of extreme daily precipitation increases in all seasons in the future climate, generally following the strength of warming in the six different future scenarios considered. However, no significant future change is found in the relationship between extreme precipitation and the CTs in any season or scenario. The results have important implications for applications that rely on the stability of this relationship, such as statistical and event-based dynamical downscaling of future weather and climate predictions and long-term climate projections.

Geologic storage of CO2 and H2 are climate-positive techniques for meeting the energy transition. While similar formations could be considered for both gases, the flow dynamics could differ due to differences in their thermophysical properties. We conduct a rigorous pore-scale study of water/CO2 and water/H2 systems at relevant reservoir conditions in a Bentheimer rock sample using the lattice Boltzmann method to quantify the effects of capillary, viscous, inertial, and wetting forces during gas invasion. At similar conditions, H2 invasion is weaker compared to CO2 due to unfavorable viscosity ratios. Increasing flow rate, however, increases the breakthrough saturation for both gas systems in the range of capillary numbers studied. At isolated conditions of flow rate, viscosity ratio, and wettability, local inertial effects are found to be critical and show consistent increase in the invaded gas saturation. The effect of inertial forces persits for both gases across all field conditions tested.

Probabilistic projections from the UK Climate Projections 2018 are presented for four global warming levels (GWLs) at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Our results show how uncertainties associated with climate models and four representative concentration pathways (RCP) emission scenarios translate to UK regional scale changes in maximum temperature and precipitation, with data also available for minimum and mean temperatures, humidity and surface net downward shortwave radiation flux. We compare weighting the likelihood of RCPs based on (hypothetical) policy decisions, against our baseline assumption that each RCP is equally likely. Differences between weighted and unweighted GWL distributions are small, particularly in relation to the full breadth of uncertainties that are incorporated into the probabilistic projections. Finally we quantify the relative importance of scenario, model and internal variability on regional projected GWLs and show that uncertainty associated with an uncertain climate response to forcings dominates at all GWLs.

The interaction between sea surface temperatures (SST) and surface heat flux (SHF) is vital for atmospheric and oceanic variabilities. This study investigates SST-SHF relationship in the framework of a coupled oscillatory model, extending beyond previous research that predominantly used AR-1 type simple stochastic climate models. In contrast to the AR-1 type model, we reveal distinct features of SST-SHF relationships in the oscillatory model: sign reversals occur in the imaginary part of SST-SHF coherence and the low-pass SST tendency-SHF correlation. However, these sign reversals are absent in the real part of SST-SHF coherence and in the low-pass SST-SHF correlation. We find these features are robust across both the twentieth Century Reanalysis and GFDL SPEAR model for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Furthermore, we develop a new scheme to assess ENSO's climate forcing magnitude and natural frequency. Our findings thus provide novel insights into understanding ENSO dynamics from the perspective of heat flux.

Interplanetary shocks (IPS) can initiate prompt acceleration of relativistic electrons in the Earth's radiation belt, which is related to the generation and propagation of impulsive electric field (IEF). We investigate the effect of IEF on accelerating radiation belt electrons in the 6 September 2017 IPS event. A “surfing” effect of electrons with respect to the electric field, referring to electrons that drift together with the tailward-propagating IEF in the duskside, is investigated in this study. Our results show that the maximum increase of electron differential flux is at 3.4 MeV by a factor of 2.2, corresponding to a drift velocity of 531 km/s, which is more consistent with the IPS propagating speed of 621 km/s rather than the fast-mode speed of 1,074 km/s. We suggest that the effect of IPS propagation is important for radiation belt dynamics, and we highlight the potential importance of the parameter of IPS propagation speed.

Magnetosheath jets with enhanced dynamic pressure are common in the Earth's magnetosheath. They can impact the magnetopause, causing deformation of the magnetopause. Here we investigate the 3-D structure of magnetosheath jets using a realistic-scale, 3-D global hybrid simulation. The magnetosheath has an overall honeycomb-like 3-D structure, where the magnetosheath jets with increased dynamic pressure surround the regions of decreased dynamic pressure resembling honeycomb cells. The magnetosheath jets downstream of the bow shock region with θ Bn  ≲ 20° (where θ Bn is the angle between the upstream magnetic field and the shock normal) propagate approximately along the normal direction of the magnetopause, while those downstream of the bow shock region with θ Bn  ≳ 20° propagate almost tangential to the magnetopause. Therefore, some magnetosheath jets formed at the quasi-parallel shock region can propagate to the magnetosheath downstream of the quasi-perpendicular shock region.

The radius of maximum wind (RMW) defines the location of the maximum winds in a tropical cyclone and is critical to understanding intensity change as well as hazard impacts. A comparison between the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) models and two statistical models based off the National Hurricane Center official forecast is conducted relative to a new baseline climatology to better understand whether models have skill in forecasting the RMW of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. On average, the HAFS models are less skillful than the climatology and persistence baseline and two statistically derived RMW estimates. The performance of the HAFS models is dependent on intensity with better skill for stronger tropical cyclones compared to weaker tropical cyclones. To further improve guidance of tropical cyclone hazards, more work needs to be done to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone structure.

In the Arctic and subarctic oceans, the relatively low supply of silicon (compared to other nutrients) can make it limiting for the growth of diatoms, a fundamental building block of the oceanic food web. Glaciers release large quantities of dissolved silicon and dissolvable solid amorphous silica phases into high-latitude estuaries (fjords), but the role of these glacially-derived silica phases in sustaining diatom growth in the coastal and open-water sectors remains unknown. Here we show how stable and radiogenic silicon isotopes can be used together to address this question, using southwest Greenland as a case study. This study finds enhanced levels of detrital (i.e., mineral) amorphous silica, likely glacially-sourced, sustaining a large portion of diatom growth observed off the coast, revealing how the phytoplankton community can function during high-meltwater periods.

The ocean's organic carbon export is a key control on atmospheric pCO2 and stimulating this export could potentially mitigate climate change. We use a data-constrained model to calculate the sensitivity of atmospheric pCO2 to local changes in export using an adjoint approach. A perpetual enhancement of the biological pump's export by 0.1 PgC/yr could achieve a roughly 1% reduction in pCO2 at average sensitivity. The sensitivity varies roughly 5-fold across different ocean regions and is proportional to the difference between the mean sequestration time τ seq of regenerated carbon and the response time τ pre of performed carbon, which is the reduction in the preformed carbon inventory per unit increase in local export production. Air-sea CO2 disequilibrium modulates the geographic pattern of τ pre, causing particularly high sensitivities (2–3 times the global mean) in the Antarctic Divergence region of the Southern Ocean.

Davemaoite, that is, CaSiO3 perovskite (CaPv), is the third most abundant phase in the lower mantle and exhibits a tetragonal-cubic phase transition at high pressures and temperatures. The phase boundary in CaPv has recently been proposed to be close to the cold slab adiabat and cause mid-mantle seismic wave speed anomalies (Thomson et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1483-x). This study utilized accurate deep-learning-based simulations and thermodynamic integration techniques to compute free energies at temperatures ranging from 300 to 3,000 K and pressures up to 130 GPa. Our results indicate that CaPv exhibits a single cubic phase throughout lower-mantle conditions. This suggests that the phase diagram proposed by Thomson et al. requires revision, and mid-mantle seismic anomalies are likely attributable to other mechanisms.

In March and April 2021, buoys were deployed in the Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean, to measure sea-ice horizontal deformation over spatial scales that had not been previously achieved. Geodetic-quality position measurements allowed measurements of strain-rate over lengths from about 200 m to 2 km. Conventional ice-drifters extended spatial coverage up to about 100 km. Past studies find there is multi-fractal behavior for horizontal sea-ice deformation from 10 to 1,000 km. Our results demonstrate that such behavior does not hold when including spatial scales below 10 km. We find that sea-ice deformation is not scale invariant between the scale of individual sea-ice floes and aggregates of floes. Therefore, we cannot expect the same physical laws or forcing to describe sea-ice kinematics over these regimes, nor can we assume log-log linear behavior for mean deformation. Using this scaling behavior as a metric to validate models that resolve sea ice floes and their interactions is hence not recommended.

Dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12) is an ozone-depleting substance and potent greenhouse gas, which was required to be phased out after 2010 under the Montreal Protocol. CFC-12 emissions need to be quantitatively traced. However, estimates of CFC-12 emissions in China based on atmospheric inversions are unavailable after 2010. Here, using atmospheric observations at nine sites across China and inversion techniques, we quantify CFC-12 emissions in China during 2011–2020 (on average 11.0 ± 0.6 Gg yr−1). The emissions derived from observations are 8.5 times larger than the previously reported inventories. Apart from emissions from eastern China revealed in previous studies, this study reveals that 71% of national total emissions were from other parts of China. Moreover, this study reconciled the global CFC-12 emissions during 2011–2020: 28% were traced to China by this study, 9% of emissions were traced in previous studies, while 63% remain untraced, indicating the need for more regional emission inversion studies.

The subaerial exposure of the modern continental crust through time remains intensely debated, with estimates of the first exposure ranging from the late Archean to the Neoproterozoic. To constrain when and how much of the continental crust was exposed subaerially during Earth's history, we trained a supervised machine learning model on the compositions of modern subaerial and submerged basalts. Then, we applied this well-trained model to a refined worldwide data set of basaltic compositions and calculated the mean proportions of basalts erupted subaerially since 3.8 billion years ago (Ga). Our results suggest that ∼20% of the basalts were exposed subaerially in the early Archean, which may have driven the synthesis of biopolymers crucial to the origins and evolution of life. The proportion of subaerial basalts increased markedly during two stages between the late Archean and the Paleoproterozoic before reaching the present-day level no earlier than ∼1.8 Ga.