GRL

A devastating earthquake with moment magnitude 7.5 occurred in the Noto Peninsula in central Japan on 1 January 2024. We estimate the rupture evolution of this earthquake from teleseismic P-wave data using the potency-density tensor inversion method, which provides information on the spatiotemporal slip distribution including fault orientations. The results show a long and quiet initial rupture phase that overlaps with regions of preceding earthquake swarms and associated aseismic deformation. The following three major rupture episodes evolve on segmented, differently oriented faults bounded by the initial rupture region. The irregular initial rupture process followed by the multi-scale rupture growth is considered to be controlled by the preceding seismic and aseismic processes and the geometric complexity of the fault system. Such a discrete rupture scenario, including the triggering of an isolated fault rupture, adds critical inputs on the assessment of strong ground motion and associated damages for future earthquakes.

Using a two-way coupled magnetohydrodynamics with embedded kinetic physics model, we perform a substorm event simulation to study electron velocity distribution functions (VDFs) evolution associated with Bursty Bulk Flows (BBFs). The substorm was observed by Magnetospheric Multiscale satellite on 16 May 2017. The simulated BBF macroscopic characteristics and electron VDFs agree well with observations. The VDFs from the BBF tail to its dipolarization front (DF) during its earthward propagation are revealed and they show clear energization and heating. The electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) at the DF are also tracked, which show interesting energy dependent features. Lower energy electrons develop a “two-hump” PAD while the higher energy ones show persist “pancake” distribution. Our study reveals for the first time the evolution of electron VDFs as a BBF moves earthward using a two-way coupled global and kinetic model, and provides valuable contextual understanding for the interpretation of satellite observations.

Whakaari/White Island has been the most active New Zealand volcano in the 21st century, producing small phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions, which are hard to predict. The most recent eruption occurred in 2019, tragically claiming the lives of 22 individuals and causing numerous injuries. We employed shear-wave splitting analyses to investigate variations in anisotropy between 2018 and 2020, during quiescence, unrest, and the eruption. We examined spatial and temporal variations in 3,499 shear-wave splitting and 2,656 V p /V s ratio measurements. Comparing shear-wave splitting parameters from similar earthquake paths across different times indicates that the observed temporal changes are unlikely to result from variations in earthquake paths through media with spatial variability. Instead, these changes may stem from variations in anisotropy over time, likely caused by changes in crack alignment due to stress or varying fluid content.

Mixed-phase stratiform clouds contain numerous liquid, mixed-phase, and ice clusters, quantifying the cluster scales is potentially helpful to improve the parameterizations of microphysics and radiation models. However, the scales of hydrometeor clusters at different levels of stratiform clouds are not well understood. In this study, using airborne measurements and a large eddy simulation, we show that turbulence plays an important role in controlling the clusters with length of a few hundred meters, while the scales of larger clusters have stronger vertical variations from cloud base to top. The liquid clusters are the largest near the cloud top, while the lengths of ice clusters decrease from cloud base to top. The lengths of mixed-phase clusters depend on the glaciation process, a faster glaciation results in smaller mixed-phase clusters. The results improve our understanding on how the liquid and ice are mixed at different levels in stratiform clouds.

The impact of an episodic river flood is intimately linked to its duration. Yet it is still unclear how often should a river be observed to accurately determine the occurrence and duration of extreme events. Here we assess flow statistics along with peak flow event detection and duration as a function of the discharge sampling period for large tributaries of the Mississippi basin using hourly gages over 2010–2022. Median event durations above high quantiles spatially vary from around 2 days upstream to 30 days downstream. Discharge mean, standard deviation, and quantiles can all be estimated within 2.5% error for sampling periods up to 8 days. A minimum temporal sampling 4× (2×) finer than peak flow event median duration is required to detect 95 ± 3% (85 ± 5%) of events and to estimate their duration within 90 ± 5% (75 ± 10%) median accuracy. Our findings have direct implications for future satellite missions concerned with capturing flood events.

Seismic anisotropy is a powerful tool to map deformation processes in the deep Earth. Below 660 km, however, observations are scarce and conflicting. In addition, the underlying crystal scale mechanisms, leading to microstructures and crystal orientations, remain poorly constrained. Here, we use multigrain X-ray diffraction in the laser-heated diamond anvil cell to investigate the orientations of hundreds of grains in pyrolite, a model composition of the Earth's mantle, at in situ pressure and temperature. Bridgmanite in pyrolite exhibits three regimes of microstructures, due to transformation and deformation at low and high pressure. These microstructures result in predictions of 1.5%–2% shear wave splitting between 660 and 2,000 km with reversals in fast S-wave polarization direction at about 1,300 km depth. Anisotropy can develop in pyrolite at lower mantle conditions, but pressure has a significant impact on the plastic behavior of bridgmanite, and hence seismic observations, which may explain conflicting anisotropy observations.

The processing of hundreds of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images acquired by two satellite systems: Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed reveals a decade of ground deformation for a ∼0.5 km diameter area around the summit crater of the only active carbonatitic volcano on Earth: Ol Doinyo Lengai in Tanzania. Further decomposing ascending and descending orbits when the appropriate SAR data sets overlap allow us to interpret the imaged deformation as ground subsidence with a significant rate of ∼3.6 cm/yr for the pixels located just north of the summit crater. Using geodetic modeling and inverting the highest spatial resolution COSMO-SkyMed data set, we show that the mechanism explaining this subsidence is most likely a deflating very shallow (≤1 km depth below the summit crater at the 95% confidence level) magma reservoir, consistent with geochemical-petrological and seismo-acoustic studies.

The South Atlantic Ocean hosts several well-studied volcanic ridges and seamount chains, but the origin of their associated mantle plumes is debated. Reduced seismicity on the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) suggests anomalously ductile thermomechanical conditions at 52°S and 47.5°S. These low seismicity patches extend 120–560 km along-axis, and correspond with axial high spreading ridge morphology, geochemical anomalies, and mantle wave speed patterns likely associated with the Shona and Discovery plumes. Bathymetric data show that the northern extent of the Shona swell is associated with increased volcanism, elevated axial bathymetry, and a series of northward-propagating rifts, with the overall swell geometry suggesting a buoyancy flux of 0.4–0.5 Mg s−1. The nearby Bouvet Island may be a product of a branch of the larger Shona plume swell, which has influenced crustal accretion on the southern MAR for the past 24 million years.

Stratified turbulence (ST) has been proposed as a model for the dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region. This theory postulates that for horizontal mesoscales (∼1–400 km), the kinetic energy of horizontal winds dissipates from large to small scales with an approximately mean constant rate. In this investigation, dissipation rates are quantified using meteor-radar observations conducted in Northern Norway. The observed seasonal variability of dissipation rates exhibits maxima during the summer and winter, and minima near the equinoxes, between 80 and 95 km altitude. The results are compared with model predictions and earlier medium frequency radar, rocket, lidar, and satellite observations of MLT turbulence. The findings suggest that multi-static meteor radar measurements of ST can provide a novel way to continuously monitor turbulent dissipation rates in the MLT region.

Accurately measuring emission factors (E s ) of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) with consideration of intraspecific variability is vital but often overlooked. This study presents in-situ measurements of BVOC emissions from 114 Eucalyptus urophylla individuals using the LI-6800 portable photosynthesis system. We observed intraspecific variability exceeding an order of magnitude in BVOC E s . Despite this variability, our approach yielded statistically representative E s for E. urophylla, yet challenging the feasibility of extensive field measurements. By quickly screening net photosynthesis rate (P n) across a broad set of individuals and selecting those within a specific P n range, such as mean ± 0.1 × SD (standard deviation) of P n for all screened individuals, for detailed BVOC emission measurements, we achieved comparable mean E s with approximately 10% of the original sampling effort. This offers a practical solution for efficient and accurate field measurement of representative BVOC E s , significantly reducing required sample size while effectively addressing intraspecific variability.

On 15 January 2022, the largest eruption of the Hunga-Tonga volcano in recorded history produced a plume registered by multi-parametric instruments around the world. However, the far-field hydrogeological responses to Lamb waves from this eruption remain underexplored. We studied the responses of groundwater to the volcanic eruption in the far-field over 8,700 km, including 274 wells. Results show that the Lamb waves with a speed of 316 m/s affects the groundwater system, leading to similar fluctuations in well water level (WL) and opposite phase fluctuation in borehole strain. Different wells exhibit diverse responses in WL amplitudes, possibly for heterogeneities in local aquifer systems. Gain values of 5 wells that simultaneously measure atmospheric pressure, borehole air pressure, borehole strain and WL are consistent with results obtained through cross-power spectrum estimation. This work demonstrates a novel response in far-field groundwater systems induced by Lamb waves and expects application for aquifer parameter estimation.

The diurnal variability of mixed layer (ML) overturning instabilities remains poorly understood due to the challenge in capturing their rapid evolutions across large spatiotemporal ranges. Using high-resolution data from 52 gliders in the South China Sea, we examine the diurnal modulations of ML overturning instabilities. The results of the 3-month field observation show that negative potential vorticity occupies ∼16% of the ML and facilitates several types of forced overturning instabilities, especially symmetric instability (SI). Surface heat fluxes are identified to primarily modulate the diurnal variability of these overturning cells, where nighttime surface cooling is found to energize SI with an ∼2-hr phase lag. As a result, over 60% of forced submesoscale overturning cells tend to restratify the ML at night. These findings quantitatively highlight the modulation of diabatic atmospheric forcing in submesoscale restratification, which should be considered in submesoscale parameterizations of ocean and climate models.

Cloud organization impacts the radiative effects and precipitation patterns of the cloud field. Deviating from randomness, clouds exhibit either clustering or a regular grid structure, characterized by the spacing between clouds and the cloud size distribution. The two measures are coupled but do not fully define each other. Here, we present the deviation from randomness of the cloud- and void-chord length distributions as a measure for both factors. We introduce the LvL representation and an associated 2D score that allow for unambiguously quantifying departure from well-defined baseline randomness in cloud spacing and sizes. This approach demonstrates sensitivity and robustness in classifying cloud field organization types. Its delicate sensitivity unravels the temporal evolution of a single cloud field, providing novel insights into the underlying governing processes.

Summertime Greenland blocking (GB) can drive melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which has global implications. A strongly increasing trend in GB in the early twenty-first century was observed but is missing in climate model simulations. Here, we analyze the temporal evolution of GB in nearly 500 members from the CMIP6 archive. The recent period of increased GB is not present in the members considered. The maximum 10-year trend in GB in the reanalysis, associated with the recent increase, lies almost outside the distributions of trends for any 10-year period in the climate models. GB is shown to be partly driven by the sea surface temperatures and/or sea ice concentrations, as well as by anthropogenic aerosols. Further work is required to understand why climate models cannot represent a period of increased GB, and appear to underestimate its decadal variability, and what implications this may have.

Transient creep in olivine aggregates has been studied by stress-relaxation experiments at pressures of 1.7–3.6 GPa and at temperatures of ≤1020 K in a DIA apparatus. Time-dependent deformation of olivine at small strains (<0.07) was monitored with an ∼1 s of time resolution using a combination of a high-flux synchrotron X-ray and a cadmium telluride imaging detector. The observed deformation was found to follow the Burgers creep function with the transient relaxation time ranging from 50 (±20) to 1,880 (±750) s. We show that the Burgers creep for olivine cannot account for the low viscosities in early post-seismic deformation reported by geodetic observations (<7 × 1017 Pa·s). In contrast, the time-dependent increase in viscosity observed in late post-seismic deformation (1018−1020 Pa·s) is explained by the Burgers rheology, suggesting that the combination of the Burgers model and another model is needed for the interpretation of post-seismic deformation.

Dense and broad-coverage ocean-bottom observation networks enable us to obtain near-fault displacement records associated with an offshore earthquake. However, simple integration of ocean-bottom strong-motion acceleration records leads to physically unrealistic displacement records. Here we propose a new method using a Kalman filter to estimate coseismic displacement waveforms using the collocated ocean-bottom seismometers and pressure gauges. First, we evaluate our method using synthetic records and then apply it to an offshore Mw 6.0 event that generated a small tsunami. In both the synthetic and real cases, our method successfully estimates reasonable displacement waveforms. Additionally, we show that the computed waveforms improve the results of the finite fault modeling process. In other words, the proposed method will be useful for estimating the details of the rupture mechanism of offshore earthquakes as a complement to onshore observations.

Accurate estimation and attribution of large-scale changes in plant transpiration are critical to understand the impacts of vegetation dynamics on the terrestrial hydrological cycle. However, these aspects remain poorly understood due to the limited reliability of global transpiration products. Here we compile data from 101 site-based transpiration measurements across the globe and use them to constrain three biophysically based data-driven transpiration products. The constrained transpiration reveals a prominent increasing trend of 0.61–0.79 mm yr−2 during 1980–2021, which is overestimated by 8%–32% in unconstrained transpiration. We further find that the global transpiration increase is mainly driven by leaf area index increase (40%), followed by climate change (19%), though offset partly by CO2-induced stomatal closure (−38%) and land use and cover change (−3%). Our refined estimates indicate a less substantial increase of global transpiration than previously thought, improving the understanding of transpiration change impact on global hydrological cycle.

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in effective radiative forcing (ERF) during the historical period and, by extension, inferred climate sensitivity. The ERF due to ACI (ERFaci) is composed of the radiative forcing due to changes in cloud microphysics and cloud adjustments to microphysics. Here, we examine the processes that drive ERFaci using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in CAM6. Observational constraints on the PPE result in substantial constraints in the response of cloud microphysics and macrophysics to anthropogenic aerosol, but only minimal constraint on ERFaci. Examination of cloud and radiation processes in the PPE reveal buffering of ERFaci by the interaction of precipitation efficiency and radiative susceptibility.

Bedform evolution and preserved cross strata are known to respond to floods. However, it is unclear if autogenic dynamics mask the flood signal in bedform evolution and cross strata. To address this, we characterize the temporal structure of autogenic noise in steady-state bedform evolution in a physical experiment. Results reveal the existence of bedform groups—quasi-stable collections of bedforms—that migrate at a similar speed as bedforms. We find that bedform and bedform-group turnover timescales are the key autogenic timescales of bed evolution that set the transition time-periods between different noise regimes in bedform evolution. Results suggest that bedform-group turnover timescale sets the lower limit for detecting flood signals in bedform evolution, and floods with duration shorter than bedform turnover timescale can be severely degraded in bedform evolution and cross strata. Our work provides a new framework for interrogating fluvial cross strata for reconstruction of past floods.

We quantify the effect of dust accumulation at Jezero crater by means of a Dust Correction Factor (DCF) for the solar radiation measured by the photodiodes of the Radiation and Dust Sensor of the Mars 2020 mission. After one Mars Year, dust on the photodiode surface attenuated 25%–30% of the incoming solar radiation. The DCF did not decrease monotonically; we use a model to reproduce its evolution and to derive dust deposition and lifting rates, showing that dust removal is 9 times larger at Jezero crater than at InSight's location in western Elysium Planitia. The model fit obtained using observed opacities is further improved when fed with dust sedimentation rates simulated by a GCM that considers a particle size distrtibution. Projections show seasonal net dust removal, being encouraging for the long-term survival of solar-powered missions to Jezero or similarly active dust lifting regions.