Feed aggregator

Synergy of active and passive airborne observations for heating rates calculation during the AEROCLO-SA field campaign in Namibia
Mégane Ventura, Fabien Waquet, Isabelle Chiapello, Gérard Brogniez, Frédéric Parol, Frédérique Auriol, Rodrigue Loisil, Cyril Delegove, Luc Blarel, Oleg Dubovik, Marc Mallet, Cyrille Flamant, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-121,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Biomass burning aerosols (BBA) from Central Africa, are transported above stratocumulus clouds. The absorption of solar energy by aerosols induce warming, altering the clouds dynamics. We developed an approach that combines polarimeter and lidar to quantify it. This methodology is assessed during the AEROCLO-SA campaign. To validate it, we used flux measurements acquired during aircraft loop descents. Major perspective is the generalization of this method to the global level.

Vertical Retrieval of AOD using SEVIRI data, Case Study: European Continent
Maryam Pashayi, Mehran Satari, and Mehdi Momeni Shahraki
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-105,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Our study estimates the SEVIRI AOD profile across Europe with 3 km spatial and 15-minute temporal resolution. Using machine learning models trained on 2017–2019 SEVIRI data and validated with 2020 CALIOP data, we found that RF performs best at higher altitudes, with wind speed and direction playing a crucial role in improving accuracy. Validation with EARLINET data confirms strong agreement with XGB.

Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.

Abstract

Climate feedbacks over the historical period (here defined as 1850–2014) have been investigated in large ensembles of historical and single forcing experiments (hist-ghg, hist-aer, and hist-nat), with 47 members for each experiment. Across the historical ensemble with all forcings, a range in estimated Effective Climate Sensitivity (EffCS) between approximately 3–6 K is found, a considerable spread stemming solely from initial condition uncertainty. The spread in EffCS is associated with varying Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns seen across the ensemble due to their influence on different feedback processes. For example, the level of polar amplification is strongly correlated with the amount of sea ice melt per degree of global warming. This mechanism is related to the large spread in shortwave clear-sky feedbacks and is the main contributor to the different forcing efficacies seen across the different forcing agents, although in HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL these differences in forcing efficacy are shown to be small. The spread in other feedbacks is also investigated, with the level of tropical SST warming strongly correlated with the longwave clear-sky feedbacks, and the local surface-air-temperatures well correlated with the spread in cloud radiative effect feedbacks. The metrics used to understand the spread in feedbacks can also help to explain the disparity between feedbacks seen in the historical experiment simulations and modeled estimate of the feedbacks seen in the real world derived from an atmosphere-only experiment prescribed with observed SSTs (termed amip-piForcing).

Abstract

Zonal extensions of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) strongly modulate extreme rainfall activity and tropical cyclone (TC) landfall over the Western North Pacific (WNP) region. These zonal extensions are primarily forced on seasonal timescales by inter-basin zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. However, despite the presence of large-scale zonal SST gradients, the WPSH response to SSTs varies from year to year. In this study, we force the atmosphere-only NCAR Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations with two real-world SST patterns, both featuring the large-scale zonal SST gradient characteristic of decaying El Niño-developing La Niña summers. For each of these patterns, we performed four experimental sets that tested the relative contributions of the tropical Indian Ocean, Pacific, and Atlantic basin SSTs to simulated westward extensions over the WNP during June–August. Our results indicate that the subtle differences between the two SST anomaly patterns belie two different mechanisms forcing the WPSH's westward extensions. In one SST anomaly pattern, extratropical North Pacific SST forcing suppresses the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient forcing, resulting in tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean SSTs being the dominant driver. The second SST anomaly pattern drives a similar westward extension as the first pattern, but the underlying SST gradient driving the WPSH points to intra-basin forcing mechanisms originating in the Pacific. The results of this study have implications for understanding and predicting the impact of the WPSH's zonal variability on tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall over the WNP.

Abstract

In this study, a variable-resolution version of the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with mesh refinement (∼0.125°) over East Asia is used to simulate the regional climate in this region. For the evaluation of model performance and sensitivity to model resolution, the simulated near-surface temperature and precipitation are compared with observations and simulation results from a globally quasi-uniform (∼1°) CESM (UN-CESM). Results show that VR-CESM better simulates the spatial patterns and seasonal variations of mean temperature and precipitation than UN-CESM over China. For extreme events, VR-CESM improves the simulation of the occurrence frequency of wintertime daily minimum temperature and heavy precipitation. In regions with complex terrains, VR-CESM better resolves the topographic forcing and captures the observed fine-scale spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation, although precipitation is still overestimated. For East Asian summer monsoon precipitation, both UN-CESM and VR-CESM tend to overestimate (underestimate) the precipitation over northern (southern) China, which is associated with too strong meridional water vapor transport in the models and biases in the large-scale circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. Different from previous studies with different physics parameterizations and refined domains, as the model resolution increases, simulated monsoon precipitation evolution is not obviously improved, and convective precipitation intensity decreases over eastern China. Despite this, our results indicate that VR-CESM simulates regional climate, topographical forcing, and large-scale circulations over East Asia reasonably well, and thus it can be applied for the future climate projection in the region.

Abstract

In rivers worldwide, multiple scales of dunes coexist. It is unknown how the larger, primary dunes interact with secondary bedforms that are superimposed. We test the hypothesis that streamwise variability in the sediment flux inferred from the downstream migration of secondary bedforms explains migration of the host dune, based on bathymetric data from a lowland, sand-bedded river. Results indicate that transport estimated from secondary bedform migration increases along the host dune stoss, eroding the stoss slope. When the superimposed bedforms disintegrate at the primary lee slopes, results indicate that all sediment transport associated to secondary bedform migration is arrested in the lee of the host dune, explaining migration of the host dune. When secondary dunes persist however, only part of the sediments transport linked to secondary dunes contributes to the migration of the host dune. This study gives novel insight into the fundamental mechanisms controlling the kinematics of compound dunes.

Abstract

Influenced by climate change, numerous lakes in permafrost regions are draining, showing significant spatial variability. This study focuses on St. Lawrence Island, where over the last two decades, 771 of 3,271 lakes have drained—a rate around 40 times higher than across the entire northern permafrost region. The surge in lake drainage began in 2018, coinciding with record low sea ice extent in the Bering Sea and unprecedented bird mortalities. Using satellite imagery and machine learning methods, we analyzed drainage events to identify the climatic drivers and potential climate thresholds affecting the island's lake ecosystems. Our findings indicate that autumn peak temperatures above 6°C more than triple the drainage probability, and warming-induced permafrost thawing may be the direct driver of lake drainage. This research highlights the vulnerability of Arctic lake ecosystems to climate change and assists in developing predictive models for permafrost response, crucial for mitigating impacts on Arctic communities.

Abstract

Crustal deformation and hydrothermal percolation related to the India-Asia collision have caused extensive remagnetization of the Tethyan Himalaya Terrane (THT). The present work identified three phases of regional remagnetization during 62.3–50.0 Ma for the east-central THT. Consequently, a model of three-stage India-Asia collision was proposed. The east-central THT first collided with the southward migrated southern margin of the Lhasa Terrane (LT) at 5.4 ± 0.9°N during 62.3–60.9 Ma. Subsequently, the THT continuously moved northward and pushed the southern margin of the LT back to its original position prior to the initiation of fore-arc and back-arc extension on both sides of the Gangdese magmatic arc. Since the final suturing of the THT with Asia at ∼10°N during 59.8–58.0 Ma, the east-central THT remained stationary until India collided with it at 10.9 ± 5.1°N at ∼50.0 Ma.

Abstract

Climatic impacts of historical volcanism are principally tied to the eruption size, while observation versus model discrepancies have been commonly attributed to the uncertainties in paleo-reconstruction or malpresentation of volcanic aerosols in models. Here we present convergent evidence for significant compensation effect of ocean latent heat (LH) in balancing the tropical volcanic-induced heat loss, by introducing an effective perturbation ratio which is found to decrease with increasing eruption magnitude. Four LH compensation hot spots overlapping with the trade wind regions are identified, together with three western boundary currents regions with intensified LH loss. Comparison between the 1258 Samalas and 1452 Unidentified eruptions suggests considerable modulation of the concurring El Nino-Southern Oscillation on LH anomaly, which is further verified by CESM large ensemble sensitivity experiments. This study depicts how the interplay between the ocean and the atmosphere could contribute to the overall resilience of the climate system in the face of volcanic disturbances.

Abstract

There is ample evidence for ice layers and lenses within glacial firn. The standard model for ice layer formation localizes the refreezing by perching of meltwater on pre-existing discontinuities. Here we argue that even extreme melting events provide insufficient flux for this mechanism. Using a thermomechanical model we demonstrate a different mechanism of ice layer formation. After a melting event when the drying front catches up with the wetting front and arrests melt percolation, conductive heat loss freezes the remaining melt in place to form an ice layer. This model reproduces the depth of a new ice layer at the Dye-2 site in Greenland. It provides a deeper insight into the interpretation of firn stratigraphy and past climate variability. It also improves the simulation of firn densification processes, a key source of uncertainty in assessing and attributing ice sheet mass balance based on satellite altimetry and gravimetry data.

Abstract

Understanding the coupling between rock permeability, pore pressure, and fluid flow is crucial, as fluids play an important role in the Earth's crustal dynamics. We measured the distribution of fluid pressure during fluid-flow experiments on two typical crustal lithologies, granite and basalt. Our results demonstrate that the pore-pressure distribution transitions from a linear to a non-linear profile as the imposed pore-pressure gradient is increased (from 2.5 to 60 MPa) across the specimen. This non-linearity results from the effective pressure dependence of permeability, for which two analytical formulations were considered: an empirical exponential and a new micromechanics-based model. In both cases, the non-linearity of pore pressure distribution is predicted. Using a compilation of permeability versus Terzaghi's effective pressure data for granites and basalts, we show that our micromechanics-based model has the potential to predict the pore pressure distribution over the range of effective pressures expected within the brittle crust.

Abstract

Carbon dioxide is a key gas to monitor at volcanoes because its concentration and isotopic signature can indicate changes to magma supply and degassing behavior prior to eruptions, yet carbon isotopic fluctuations at volcanic summits are not well constrained. Here we present δ13C results measured from plume samples collected at Stromboli volcano, Italy, by Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS). We found contrasting volcanic δ13C signatures in 2018 during quiescence (−0.36 ± 0.59‰) versus 10 days before the 3 July 2019 paroxysm (−5.01 ± 0.56‰). Prior to the eruption, an influx of CO2-rich magma began degassing at deep levels (∼100 MPa) in an open-system fashion, causing strong isotopic fractionation and maintaining high CO2/St ratios in the gas. This influx occurred between 10 days and several months prior to the event, meaning that isotopic changes in the gas could be detected weeks to months before unrest.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6708, August 2024.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6708, August 2024.

Abstract

This study provides the design and demonstration of a Ku/K band horn-fed linear polarization (LP) to circular polarization (CP) converter using a reflectarray antenna based on the holographic technique and the generalized law of total reflection without any iterative algorithms. The proposed hologram performs wide-range frequency beam scanning with minimum gain losses and cross-polarization levels. It comprises 2,500 diagonal slotted octagonal subwavelength metasurfaces with a periodicity of 0.266λ 0 = 4 mm at 20 GHz as the center frequency. Two equations are defined to compute Y 11 of the proposed unit cell regarding its dimensions for TE(0,0) and TM(0,0) Floquet modes. They significantly simplify the coding procedure and reduce the computational time for synthesizing the hologram. The antenna is simulated using the CST software from 14 to 25 GHz. As a confirmation, a prototype is manufactured and measured at 16, 18, 20, 22, and 24 GHz to verify its performance. The simulated and measured results are well-matched. The presented hologram achieves 40% 1.8-dB axial ratio (AR) bandwidth (16–25 GHz), 40% 3.3-dB gain bandwidth (16–24 GHz), and above 30% 2-dB gain bandwidth (16–22 GHz). Moreover, the antenna can perform beam scanning from 42° to 24° by changing the frequency from 16 to 24 GHz with peak gain values greater than 20.33 dBi. The LHCP pencil beams are at least 24° off-broadside, so the proposed hologram avoids the feed blockage. These achievements make the hologram one of the best candidates for satellite communications, radar applications, short-range communication, and point-to-point communication.

Abstract

Forecasting landslide inundation upon catastrophic failure is crucial for reducing casualties, yet it remains a long-standing challenge owing to the complex nature of landslides. Recent global studies indicate that catastrophic hillslope failures are commonly preceded by a period of precursory creep, motivating a novel scheme to foresee their hazard. Here, we showcase an approach to hindcast landslide inundation by linking satellite-captured precursory displacements to modeling of consequent granular-fluid flows. We present its application to the 2021 Chunchi, Ecuador landslide, which failed catastrophically and evolved into a mobile debris flow after four months of precursory creep, destroying 68 homes along its lengthy flow path. Underpinned by uncertainty quantification and in situ validations, we highlight the feasibility and potential of forecasting landslide inundation damage using observable precursors. This forecast approach is broadly applicable for flow hazards initiated from geomaterial failures.

Abstract

Climate change is creating a new era of infectious disease crises, further exacerbated by extreme weather. However, the relationship between extreme weather and infectious disease remain unclear. Here, we provide a new quantitative study on the impact of cold wave on COVID-19 as an example. We found that during cold waves, extreme cold temperatures coupled with rapid aerosol transport accelerated COVID-19 outbreaks. It directly increased the number of COVID-19 cases in Beijing by 28.1% in the winter of year 2022. More urgently, cold temperatures led to a higher risk of death during infectious disease outbreaks, with a 7.07% increase in confirmed deaths and a 16.61% increase in excess mortality. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to promote a synergistic policy for responding to infectious diseases during cold wave disasters in order to minimize the risk of death among the elderly and those with underlying diseases.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6710, Page 790-795, August 2024.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6708, Page 503-503, August 2024.