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Flood relief logistics planning for coastal cities: a case study in Shanghai, China
Pujun Liang, Jie Yin, Dandan Wang, Yi Lu, Yuhan Yang, Dan Gao, and Jianfeng Mai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Addressing coastal city flood risks, this article examines relief logistics planning, employing a GIS-network analysis and optimization model to minimize costs and dissatisfaction. The investigation, grounded in Shanghai's emergency infrastructure and flood relief logistics framework, presents feasible distribution strategies. Meanwhile, the case study indicates that the supply levels of Emergency Flood Shelters and Emergency Reserve Warehouses vary in different coastal flood scenarios.

Abstract

In this study, we use multi-instrument observations (all-sky imager (ASI), global navigation satellite system (GPS) receivers, digisonde) to study the interaction of nighttime medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) on 13 November 2018. The most attractive aspect of this event is that the interaction appeared between two dark bands both propagated southwestward. The airglow observations show that the latter band moved faster and caught up with the former, and these two bands merged into a new one. The propagating characteristics and morphology of the MSTIDs changed during the interaction process. The simulations from the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) suggested that the ionospheric background zonal winds and electron density distributions could play essential roles in the interaction of the MSTIDs. Moreover, the merging process might be associated with the electrostatic reconnection.

Abstract

Wave particle interactions are very important to understand the intricate evolution of the Earth's radiation belt electrons. Kinetic simulations, in terms of solving the Fokker-Planck equation based on the quasilinear theory, are usually used to simulate the radiation belt electron dynamic evolution. However, the global wave and plasma density distributions adopted in the kinetic simulations are very difficult to be directly obtained by satellites. Here we present a new model, by integrating the machine learning technique and kinetic simulations, to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of radiation belt electrons scattered by lower band chorus (LBC). Compared to the observations, our integrated model produces effectively the global distribution of plasmapause location, plasma density, and LBC intensity, and assesses quantitatively the scattering effect driven by LBC waves at different magnetic local times (MLT), L-shell (the Mcllwain L-parameter), and time. Incorporating the effect of radiation electron drift, we further use the 2-D Fokker-Planck equation to simulate the variations of electron phase space density in different MLT sectors at a fixed L, and find that the integrated model replicates reasonably the multi-MeV electron acceleration at L = 4.5 during the period from the main phase to the early recovery phase of the storm. Our results demonstrate that such an integrated model, on basis of a combination of the machine learning technique and kinetic simulations, provides valuable means for improved understanding of the global dynamic evolution of the Earth's radiation belt electrons.

Long-term changes in the dependence of NmF2 on solar flux at Juliusruh
Maria Gloria Tan Jun Rios, Claudia Borries, Huixin Liu, and Jens Mielich
Ann. Geophys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-11,2024
Preprint under review for ANGEO (discussion: open, 3 comments)
The study analyzes hourly NmF2 data from Juliusruh (1957 to 2023) and examines the response of NmF2 to solar flux by using three different solar EUV proxies for six solar cycles, including a separation of the ascending and descending phases. The response is better represented with a quadratic regression and F30 shows the highest correlation for describing NmF2 dependence over time. These results revealed a steady decrease in NmF2, influenced by the intensity of the solar activity index.

Abstract

Previous simulations have suggested that O+ outflow plays a role in driving the sawtooth oscillations. This study investigates the role of O+ by identifying the differences in ionospheric outflow between sawtooth and non-sawtooth storms using 11 years of FAST/Time of flight Energy Angle Mass Spectrograph (TEAMS) ion composition data from 1996 through 2007 during storms driven by coronal mass ejections. We find that the storm's initial phase shows larger O+ outflow during non-sawtooth storms, and the main and recovery phases revealed differences in the location of ionospheric outflow. On the pre-midnight sector, a larger O+ outflow was observed during the main phase of sawtooth storms, while non-sawtooth storms exhibited stronger O+ outflow during the recovery phase. On the dayside, the peak outflow shifts significantly toward dawn during sawtooth storms. This strong dawnside sector outflow during sawtooth storms warrants consideration.

Abstract

This study reports coordinated observation of ionospheric irregularities from VHF Radar, GPS and IRNSS (Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System), from regions near the northern crest of the EIA (Equatorial Ionization Anomaly), which has not been explored earlier. Efforts have been made to study the signal-in-space environment for concurrent detection of ionospheric irregularities over a range of radio frequency, starting from 53 MHz of the Radar, to L-band of GPS at 1,575.42 MHz and S band signal of IRNSS at 2,492.5 MHz. The radar is operational at Ionosphere Field Station, Haringhata (geographic latitude 22.93°N; geographic longitude 88.51°E; magnetic dip angle 36.2°N) of University of Calcutta. The GPS and IRNSS data are recorded at Calcutta (22.58°N, 88.38°E geographic; magnetic dip: 36°N), separated from Haringhata by 50 km. The spatial as well as temporal variations of irregularities affecting different radio frequencies have been presented. Coordinated observations have been made during period of March–April 2023. Results of the study reveal the common zone of impact of the different radio frequency links spanning from 53 to 2,592.5 MHz and was identified within 16°–25°N, 85°–90°E. During coordinated observations made over several days, irregularity structures have been observed with radar, having backscatter SNR (Signal to Noise ratio) intensity within −5 to 15 dB. During this time, while intense L band scintillation was recorded on multiple satellites of GPS, scintillation recorded at S band signal was moderate to intense.

Abstract

Debris flows and floods generated by rainfall runoff occur in rocky mountainous landscapes and burned steeplands. Flow type is commonly identified post-event through interpretation of depositional structures, but these may be poorly preserved or misinterpreted. Prior research indicates that discharge magnitude is commonly amplified in debris flows relative to floods due to volumetric bulking and increased frictional resistance. Here, we use this flow amplification to develop a metric (Q*) to separate debris flows from floods based on the ratio of observed peak discharge to the theoretical maximum water discharge from rainfall runoff. We compile 642 observations of floods and debris flows and demonstrate that Q* distinguishes flow type to ∼92% accuracy. Q* allows for accurate identification of debris flows through simple channel cross-section surveys rather than through qualitative interpretation of deposits, and therefore should increase the performance of models and engineered structures that require accurate flow-type observations.

Abstract

The Southern Alps experiences rapid bedrock uplift and intense surface processes like erosion and deglaciation. We quantify how the erosion and deglaciation contribute to the ongoing vertical motions using geophysical models. The erosional unloading uplift is found to be 0.5–1.5 mm/yr throughout the central Southern Alps, whereas the recent deglaciation may locally produce uplift up to 1–3 mm/yr. The estimated unloading uplift accounts for 10%–40% of the GNSS-observed uplift. After correcting the unloading uplift, the GNSS-observed uplift can be explained by about 4–6 mm/yr dip-slip motion on the Alpine fault, which is 10%–50% below previous geodetic estimates. Hence, unloading uplift must be evaluated when interpreting geodetic observations in tectonically active mountain ranges subjected to intense surface processes.

Abstract

Understanding the key drivers controlling rainfall stable isotope variations in inland tropical regions remains a global challenge. We present novel high-frequency isotope data (5–30 min intervals) to disentangle the evolution of six stratiform rainfall events (N = 112) during the passage of convective systems in inland Brazil (September 2019–June 2020). These systems produced stratiform rainfall of variable cloud features. Depleted stratiform events (δ18Oinitial ≤ −4.2‰ and δ18Omean ≤ −6.1‰) were characterized by cooler cloud-top temperatures (≤−38°C), larger areas (≥48 km2), higher liquid-ice ratios (≥3.1), and higher melting layer heights (≥3.8 km), compared to enriched stratiform events (δ18Oinitial ≥ −3.8‰ and δ18Omean ≥ −5.1‰). Cloud vertical structure variability was reflected in a wide range of δ18O temporal patterns and abrupt shifts in d-excess. Our findings provide a new perspective to the ongoing debate about isotopic variability and the partitioning of rainfall types across the tropics.

Implementation and assessment of a model including mixotrophs and the carbonate cycle (Eco3M_MIX-CarbOx v1.0) in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal environment (Bay of Marseille, France) – Part 2: Towards a better representation of total alkalinity when modeling the carbonate system and air–sea CO2 fluxes
Lucille Barré, Frédéric Diaz, Thibaut Wagener, Camille Mazoyer, Christophe Yohia, and Christel Pinazo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5851–5882, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5851-2024, 2024
The carbonate system is typically studied using measurements, but modeling can contribute valuable insights. Using a biogeochemical model, we propose a new representation of total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, pCO2, and pH in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal area, the Bay of Marseille, a useful addition to measurements. Through a detailed analysis of pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes, we show that variations are strongly impacted by the hydrodynamic processes that affect the bay.

Updating the radiation infrastructure in MESSy (based on MESSy version 2.55)
Matthias Nützel, Laura Stecher, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Michael Ponater, Phoebe Graf, and Markus Kunze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024
We extended the infrastructure of our modelling system to enable the use of an additional radiation scheme. After calibrating the model setups to the old and the new radiation scheme, we find that the simulation with the new scheme shows considerable improvements, e.g. concerning the cold-point temperature and stratospheric water vapour. Furthermore, perturbations of radiative fluxes associated with greenhouse gas changes, e.g. of methane, tend to be improved when the new scheme is employed.

“Pochva”: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-138,2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper presents the result of many years of efforts of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of research on physical processes at the surface-atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.

Abstract

The formation of Lau Basin records an extreme event of plate tectonics, with the associated Tonga trench exhibiting the fastest retreat in the world (16 cm/yr). Yet paleogeographic reconstructions suggest that seafloor spreading in the Lau Basin only initiated around 6 Ma. This kinematics is difficult to reconcile with our present understanding of how subduction drives plate motions. Using numerical models, we propose that eastward migration of the Lau Ridge concurrent with trench retreat explains both the narrow width and thickened crust of the Lau Basin. To match the slab geometry and basin width along the Tonga-Kermadec trench, our models suggest that fast trench retreat rate of 16 cm/yr might start ~15 Ma. Tonga slab rollback induced vigorous mantle flow underneath the South Fiji Basin which is driving the extension and thinning of the basin and contributing to its observed deeper bathymetry compared to neighboring basins.

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) are important modes in the atmosphere and ocean over the North Atlantic, respectively. The link between the two is well-known. However, this link weakened during 1980–2001, which is particularly pronounced in late winter and was not detected in early winter. This phenomenon has not been well revealed. The role of NAO in the above correlation changes was discussed. In late winter, a significant eastward shift (up to 20° longitude) of NAO south center during 1980–2001 was observed in both observation and CMIP6, accompanied by the eastward expansion of NAO north center. Spatial shift of the NAO forced the region of strong air-sea interactions to shift and resulting in the collapse of NAO-related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale.

Abstract

The solar wind interaction with planetary magnetospheres dictates the mechanism through which energy is transported across planetary systems. The magnetohydrodynamic plasma description suggests that solar wind conditions in the outer solar system encourage the magnetopause boundaries at Uranus and Neptune to be more Kelvin-Helmholtz unstable, however, no quantitative assessment has been performed. To characterize the viscous solar wind interaction at Uranus and Neptune, we create an analytical model to determine where Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities (KHIs) may form along their magnetopauses by searching for regions where the minimum condition for KHI formation is satisfied. We run the model at solstice and equinox for a range of Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strengths, and rotation phases. We find minimal seasonal variation for low IMF strengths (B = 0.01 nT), with ∼70% of the magnetopause surface at Uranus and ∼80% at Neptune, enabling KHI formation. For periods of stronger IMF strength (B > 0.3 nT), KHIs were significantly suppressed. While KHIs depend on both the conditions inside the magnetopause boundary and the shocked solar wind IMF strength, we find that the IMF strength is the most significant criterion in determining whether or not KHIs are allowed to form at the magnetopause boundaries.

Abstract

Along a climate gradient in the Chilean coastal mountains, we investigated denudation rates using the meteoric cosmogenic nuclide 10Be and its ratio to stable 9Be, and chemical depletion fractions (CDFs) in bulk soil samples. We find that the fraction of 9Be released from bedrock is a sensitive indicator of weathering, similar to CDF. Meteoric 10Be decreases exponentially with depth, reflecting the reactive nature of this tracer. We also measured denudation rates by the well-understood in situ cosmogenic 10Be system on quartz. Assuming that both systems record the same denudation rate we calculated the depositional flux of meteoric 10Be for each study site. The flux agrees to that derived from atmospheric models in the mediterranean and humid areas. In contrast, in the arid and semi-arid areas, the calculated flux agrees with a precipitation-derived flux, indicating delivery of 10Be to be affected by small-scale climatic variations not reflected by current atmospheric models.

Abstract

In this paper, using a three-dimensional multifluid MHD model, we studied the effects of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle and the latitude position of the intense crustal magnetic field (ICMF) on the escape of ions O+, O2+ ${\mathrm{O}}_{\mathrm{2}}^{+}$, and CO2+ ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{\mathrm{2}}^{+}$ at Mars. The main results are as follows: (a) The IMF clock angle affects the ion escape at Mars. When the ICMF is on the dayside, the ion escape rate reaches a maximum at the IMF clock angles close to 60°–90° and a minimum at the IMF clock angles close to 120°–150°, because the ICMF can change the topology of the magnetic field and affect the interaction between the solar wind and Mars. The difference between the maximum and minimum ion escape rates due to the IMF clock angle can reach over 50%. (b) Compared with the −ESW hemisphere, the escape flux of O2+ ${\mathrm{O}}_{\mathrm{2}}^{+}$ and CO2+ ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{\mathrm{2}}^{+}$ in the +ESW hemisphere is more significant. However, O+ generally has a larger escape flux in the −ESW hemisphere. The different results in the ±ESW hemispheres might be due to the larger distribution of the hot oxygen corona, which changes the flow pattern of O+. (c) The latitude location of the ICMF can also affect the ion escape. When the ICMF is on the dayside, as the subsolar point varies from 25°S to 25°N, that is, the intense crustal magnetic field position keeps shifting southward, the ion escape rate shows a gradual increase.

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during the early boreal spring can trigger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter. However, the future changes in the impact of the NTA on ENSO remain controversial. Here, we show distinct changes in the strength of the NTA−ENSO relationship due to global warming by comparing models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and CMIP6. The impact of the NTA on ENSO under greenhouse warming is notably enhanced in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. A wetter mean state over the subtropical eastern North Pacific and increased oceanic sensitivity over the equatorial central Pacific are key factors that enhance the impact of the NTA SST on ENSO. Therefore, differences in the mean state under greenhouse warming between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can modulate the strength of the NTA−ENSO relationship.

Abstract

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission provides a good opportunity to study fine-scale processes in the global ocean but whether it can detect balanced submesoscale eddies is uncertain due to the “contamination” by unbalanced inertial gravity waves. Here, based on concurrent observations from SWOT and a mooring array in the northwestern Pacific, we successfully captured two submesoscale cyclonic eddies with negative sea level anomalies (SLAs) in spring 2023. We find that the SLA amplitude and equivalent radius of the first (second) eddy are 2.5 cm and 16.0 km (2.0 cm and 18.8 km), respectively. For both eddies, their vertical scales are around 150 m and their horizontal velocities and Rossby numbers exceed 15.0 cm/s and 0.4, respectively. Further analysis suggests that similar submesoscale eddies can commonly occur in the northwestern Pacific and that SWOT is capable to detect larger submesoscale eddies with scales greater than ∼10 km.

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) models (XGBoost) in predicting low-cloud fraction (LCF), compared to two generations of the community atmospheric model (CAM5 and CAM6) and ERA5 reanalysis data, each having a different cloud scheme. ML models show a substantial enhancement in predicting LCF regarding root mean squared errors and correlation coefficients. The good performance is consistent across the full spectrums of atmospheric stability and large-scale vertical velocity. Employing an explainable ML approach, we revealed the importance of including the amount of available moisture in ML models for representing spatiotemporal variations in LCF in the midlatitudes. Also, ML models demonstrated marked improvement in capturing the LCF variations during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition (SCT). This study suggests ML models' great potential to address the longstanding issues of “too few” low clouds and “too rapid” SCT in global climate models.