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Abstract

The Stratospheric Total Aerosol Counter (STAC) is a lightweight balloon-borne instrument that utilizes condensational growth techniques to measure the total aerosol concentration. STAC is a miniaturized version of the legacy Wyoming condensation particle counter that operated from 1974 through 2020 in the middle latitudes and polar regions, with a few measurements in the tropics. Here we provide a description of the STAC instrument and the total aerosol measurement record, demonstrating that typical total aerosol profiles exhibit a peak in number mixing ratio, with values between 800 and 2,000 particles per mg of air (mg−1), just below the lapse rate tropopause (LRT). In the tropics and middle latitudes, mixing ratios decrease above the LRT likely due to coagulation and scavenging that results in a transfer of mass to the fewer but larger aerosol particles of the Junge layer. Exceptions to this occur in the spring time in the middle latitudes where a new particle layer between 20 and 25 km is frequently observed. In the poles, total aerosol profiles exhibit two distinct features: new particle formation in austral spring, and an increasing mixing ratio above 17 km likely due to the presence of meteoric smoke that has been concentrated within the polar vortex. High observed stratospheric particle mixing ratios, in excess of 2,000 mg−1, are observed in the polar new particle layer and at the top of polar profiles.

Abstract

The position of the subtropical jet over the Himalayas (Himalayan jet) affects extreme precipitation and heat over Central and South Asia. We examine the influence of two major natural factors-the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and explosive volcanic eruptions—on Himalayan jet interannual variability during the past millennium using simulations from the Community Earth System Model. We find that both El Niño events and eruptions shift the Himalayan jet equatorward by up to 3°. If an El Niño occurs following an eruption, this enhances the equatorward Himalayan jet shift, while La Niña tends to favor poleward jet migration. Subtropical cooling during El Niño or following eruptions is the primary cause of equatorward Himalayan jet shifts, while poleward shifts are associated with subtropical warming. Consistent across the CMIP6 models over the historical period, our results suggest that both ENSO and eruptions are the key drivers of interannual Himalayan jet variability.

Abstract

A new ice refractive index compilation is reported for a broad spectrum ranging from 0.0443 to 106 μm, focusing on the pronounced temperature-dependence of ice optical properties in the far-infrared (far-IR) segment (15–100 μm). A sensitivity study assuming spherical particles shows that selecting ice refractive indices at 12 temperatures and 215 wavelengths in the far-IR region gives sufficient accuracy in interpolated refractive indices for developing a new ice crystal optical property database. Furthermore, we demonstrate the differences between the bulk single-scattering properties computed for hexagonal ice particles with this new compilation compared to a previous iteration at three far-IR wavelengths where substantial differences are noticed between the two ice refractive index compilations. We suggest that our new ice refractive index data set will improve downstream light-scattering applications for upcoming far-IR satellite missions and allow robust modeling of outgoing longwave radiation under ice cloud conditions.

Abstract

This study uses large eddy simulations to investigate nutrient transport and uptake in suspended macroalgal farms. Various farm configurations and oceanic forcing conditions are examined, with the farm base located near the nutricline depth. We introduce the Damkohler number Da to quantify the balance between nutrient consumption by macroalgae uptake and supply by farm-enhanced nutrient transport. Most cases exhibit low Da, indicating that farm-generated turbulence drives sufficient upward nutrient fluxes, supporting macroalgae growth. High Da and starvation may occur in fully grown farm blocks, a configuration that generates the weakest turbulence, particularly when combined with densely planted macroalgae or weak flow conditions. Flow stagnation within the farm due to macroalgae drag may constrain the uptake efficiency and further increase the starvation risk. Mitigation strategies involve timely harvesting, avoiding dense macroalgae canopies, and selecting farm locations with robust ocean currents and waves. This study provides insights for sustainable macroalgal farm planning.

Abstract

The distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) eye cloud heights is documented for the first time using compact Raman lidar (CRL) measurements with high spatial resolution. These cloud heights act as tracers for low-level vertical mixing in the eye region. Cloud height distributions using all available data from nine Atlantic TCs in 2021 and 2022 show significant vertical variance, dispelling the notion of a flat stratiform eye cloud deck. Eye cloud widths are multiscale, with shallow convective clouds dominating CRL returns. Data from Hurricane Sam (2021) highlight the evolution of shallow convective clouds in the TC eye and their associated temperature inversions. The frequent appearance of convective eye clouds, along with observed vertical wind fluctuations, suggests that vertical mixing from the boundary layer frequently occurs in the TC eye, even beneath strong inversions. This strong vertical mixing should be accurately portrayed by TC simulations and forecasts.

Abstract

The study presents (a) a 44-year wintertime climatology of resolved gravity wave (GW) fluxes and forcing in the extratropical stratosphere using ERA5, and (b) their composite evolution around gradual (final warming) and abrupt (sudden warming) transitions in the wintertime circulation, focusing on lateral fluxes. The transformed Eulerian mean equations are leveraged to provide a glimpse of the importance of GW lateral propagation (i.e., horizontal propagation) toward driving the wintertime stratospheric circulation by analyzing the relative contribution of the vertical versus meridional flux dissipation. The relative contribution from lateral propagation is found to be notable, especially in the Austral winter stratosphere where lateral (vertical) momentum flux convergence provides a peak climatological forcing of up to −0.5 (−3.5) m/s/day around 60°S at 40–45 km altitude. Prominent lateral propagation in the wintertime midlatitudes also contributes to the formation of belts of GW activity in both hemispheres.

Abstract

Impact craters that form on every planetary body provide a record of planetary surface evolution. On heavily cratered surfaces, new craters that form often overlap antecedent craters, but it is unknown how the presence of antecedent craters alters impact crater formation. We use overlapping complex crater pairs on the lunar surface to constrain this process and find that crater rims are systematically lower where they intersect antecedent crater basins. The rim morphology of the new crater depends on the depth of the antecedent crater and the degree of overlap between the craters. Our observations suggest that new craters do not always obliterate underlying topography and that transient rim collapse is altered by antecedent topography. This study represents the first formalization of the influence of antecedent topography on rim morphology and provides process insight into a common impact scenario relevant to the geology of potential Artemis landing sites.

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) drive space weather effects at Earth and the heliosphere. Predicting their arrival is a major part of space weather forecasting. In 2013, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center started collecting predictions from the community, developing an Arrival Time Scoreboard (ATSB). Riley et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018sw001962) analyzed the first 5 years of the ATSB, finding a bias of a few hours and uncertainty of order 15 hr. These metrics have been routinely quoted since 2018, but have not been updated despite continued predictions. We revise analysis of the ATSB using a sample 3.5 times the size of that in the original study. We find generally the same overall metrics, a bias of −2.5 hr, mean absolute error of 13.2 hr, and standard deviation of 17.4 hr, with only a slight improvement comparing between the previously-used and new sets. The most well-established, frequently-submitted model results tend to outperform those from seldomly-contributed models. These “best” models show a slight improvement over the 11 year span, with more scatter between the models during early times and a convergence toward the same error metrics in recent years. We find little evidence of any correlations between the arrival time errors and any other properties. The one noticeable exception is a tendency for late predictions for short transit times and vice versa. We propose that any model-driven systematic errors may be washed out by the uncertainties in CME reconstructions in characterization of the background solar wind, and suggest that improving these may be the key to better predictions.

Abstract

Starting from 29 January 2022, a series of solar eruptions triggered a moderate geomagnetic storm on 3 February 2022, followed subsequently by another. Despite the typically minimal impact of unintense storms on space technology, 38 out of the 49 Starlink satellites underwent orbital decay, re-entering Earth's atmosphere. These satellite losses were attributed to enhanced atmospheric drag conditions. This study employs numerical simulations, utilizing our test particle simulation code, to investigate the dynamics of the inner radiation belt during the two magnetic storms. Our analysis reveals an increase in proton density and fluxes during the transition from the recovery phase of the first storm to the initial phase of the second, primarily driven by intense solar wind dynamic pressure. Additionally, we assess Single Event Upset (SEU) rates, which exhibit a 50% increase in comparison to initial quiet conditions.

Abstract

Sporadic E (Es) layers are plasma irregularities significantly affecting radio communication and navigation systems. And, their dominant formation mechanism at mid-latitudes, known as the wind shear theory, suggests that they serve as indicators of the atmosphere-ionosphere coupling processes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region. On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'api submarine volcanic eruption provided a unique opportunity to investigate the Es layer responses to lower atmospheric perturbations. Using the FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 radio occultation and ground-based ionosonde observations, this study reveals the spatial-temporal behaviors of the Es layers after the Hunga volcanic eruption. The results show that significant Es layer perturbations occurred over the northwest of the epicenter ∼4 hr after the eruption and lasted for approximately ∼22 hr. We also calculated the geographical distribution of the vertical ion convergence (VIC) using neutral winds obtained from the Michelson Interferometer for Global High-resolution Thermospheric Imaging on the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) satellite. A comparison of the geographical distribution of positive VIC and Es layer perturbations shows a good agreement, which indicates that the enhanced Es layers are caused by strong VIC associated with the atmospheric perturbations due to the eruption. This study presents observational evidence for coupling between the Es layer and lower atmospheric perturbations, which can be helpful for understanding the occasionality and variability of Es layer occurrence.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6705, July 2024.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6705, July 2024.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6705, July 2024.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6705, July 2024.

Abstract

We perform a statistical sensitivity analysis on a parametric fit to vertical daily displacement time series of 244 European Permanent GNSS stations, with a focus on linear vertical land motion (VLM), i.e., station velocity. We compare two independent corrections to the raw (uncorrected) observed displacements. The first correction is physical and accounts for non-tidal atmospheric, non-tidal oceanic and hydrological loading displacements, while the second approach is an empirical correction for the common-mode errors. For the uncorrected case, we show that combining power-law and white noise stochastic models with autoregressive models yields adequate noise approximations. With this as a realistic baseline, we report improvement rates of about 14% to 24% in station velocity sensitivity, after corrections are applied. We analyze the choice of the stochastic models in detail and outline potential discrepancies between the GNSS-observed displacements and those predicted by the loading models. Furthermore, we apply restricted maximum likelihood estimation (RMLE), to remove low-frequency noise biases, which yields more reliable velocity uncertainty estimates. RMLE reveals that for a number of stations noise is best modeled by a combination of random walk, flicker noise, and white noise. The sensitivity analysis yields minimum detectable VLM parameters (linear velocities, seasonal periodic motions, and offsets), which are of interest for geophysical applications of GNSS, such as tectonic or hydrological studies.

Nature Geoscience, Published online: 12 July 2024; doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01477-3

Simple silica exists in many forms on Earth, as Falko Langenhorst explains. Some of these polymorphs can shed light on the Earth’s violent past.

Nature Geoscience, Published online: 12 July 2024; doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01499-x

The Holocene flooding and sedimentation history of the Nile illustrates how fluvial geomorphology has long influenced human society.

Nature Geoscience, Published online: 12 July 2024; doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01491-5

Earth system models project that lake temperatures will warm beyond the range of natural variability to which aquatic ecosystems are adapted in the coming decades, with conditions exceeding natural analogues sooner at lower latitudes.

Nature Geoscience, Published online: 12 July 2024; doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01478-2

Core processes, dynamically linked to mantle and climate-related surface processes, contribute to both the long-term trend and shorter-term fluctuations observed in Earth’s polar motion, according to predictions from physics-informed neural networks.