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The ability of a stochastic regional weather generator to reproduce heavy precipitation events across scales
Xiaoxiang Guan, Dung Viet Nguyen, Paul Voit, Bruno Merz, Maik Heistermann, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We evaluated a multi-site stochastic regional weather generator (nsRWG) for its ability to capture the cross-scale extremity of high precipitation events (HPEs) in Germany. We generated 100 realizations of 72 years of daily synthetic precipitation data. The performance was assessed using WEI and xWEI indices, which measure event extremity across spatio-temporal scales. Results show nsRWG simulates well the extremity patterns of HPEs, though it overestimates short-duration, small-extent events.

Abstract

Severe storms produce ocean waves with periods of 18–26 s, corresponding to wavelengths 500–1,055 m. These waves radiate globally as swell, generating microseisms and affecting coastal areas. Despite their significance, long waves often elude detection by existing remote sensing systems when their height is below 0.2 m. The new Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite offers a breakthrough by resolving these waves in global sea level measurements. Here we show that SWOT can detect 25-s waves with heights as low as 3 cm, and resolves period and direction better than in situ buoys. SWOT provides detailed maps of wave height, wavelength, and direction across ocean basins. These measurements unveil intricate spatial patterns, shedding light on wave generation in storms, currents that influence propagation, and refraction, diffraction and reflection in shallow regions. Notably, the magnitude of reflections exceeds previous expectations, illustrating SWOT's transformative impact.

Abstract

Megathrusts at convergent plate boundaries generate the largest and some of the most hazardous earthquakes on Earth. However, their physical properties, including those influencing fault slip accumulation and release and earthquake-related surface displacements, are still poorly constrained at critical depths. Here, we combine seismic imaging and geodetic modeling to investigate the structure and mechanical behavior of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT) in the center of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha rupture in Nepal. Our results from two independent observations consistently suggest the presence of a channel associated with the MHT with high compliance (shear modulus as low as ∼4 GPa) and strain anisotropy (stiffer in the vertical orientation than in the horizontal), likely arising from a weak subducting layer with north-dipping foliation. Such mechanical heterogeneity significantly influences the quantification of short-term fault kinematics and associated earthquake potential, with implications on across-scale dynamics of plate boundaries in Himalaya and elsewhere.

Abstract

The recently-observed poleward shift in western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) genesis has increased the TC threat to East Asia. We find that the poleward shift of TC genesis since 1979 is linked to mega-ENSO. A downscaling analysis of TC genesis latitude given the constraint of mega-ENSO using 30 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show a continued increasing poleward shift with additional warming. We use the dynamic genesis potential index as a TC proxy in future CMIP6 simulations. These simulations show enhanced TC formation in the subtropics and decreased TC formation in the tropics. Modeled TCs in CMIP6 high-resolution models that well represent mega-ENSO project future poleward shifts in TC genesis. Both observations and simulations show that extra-tropical North Pacific sea surface temperature warming associated with mega-ENSO are the primary driver of the TC genesis poleward shift. Our study provides new insights into climate change-driven TC migration.

Abstract

Brown carbon (BrC) in China is of great interest to the regional and global climate due to its strong absorption of sunlight. However, the contribution of BrC to total carbonaceous aerosol light absorption and its direct radiative effects (DRE) in China remains largely uncertain. To better assess its climate impact in China, we develop an explicit BrC scheme and implement it in a global climate model, which includes optical parameters of primary BrC derived from local measurements, secondary BrC absorption, and a photobleaching parameterization of BrC. By comparing with multi-type observational data, we find that with the implementation of this scheme, the model captures the seasonal variations of BrC light absorption well in China. The model estimates that BrC contributes 19% and 12% to the total light absorption of carbonaceous aerosol in China in winter and summer, resulting in 0.110 and 0.205 W m−2 of DRE, respectively.

Abstract

Mars' polar ice deposits are thought to preserve a record of climate throughout their evolution. In addition to the large north polar layered deposits (NPLD) at Mars' north pole, smaller ice deposits are preserved in craters nearby. These outlying deposits were potentially formed by the same mechanisms that drive NPLD formation, or may represent more local mechanisms. Distinguishing between these possibilities would help elucidate the spatial homogeneity of Martian climate processes. Here, we analyzed SHARAD radar depth profiles from 34 locations across the NPLD and 5 locations within the Korolev crater ice deposit using Fourier transform analysis and dynamic time warping to quantitatively assess the similarity between the internal layered stratigraphy of the two deposits. We identify broad stratigraphic similarities between the Korolev deposit and the NPLD, suggesting they likely formed due to the same climate forcing mechanism, with local variability also observed across the NPLD.

Abstract

The evolution of charge structure involved in lightning discharge of a thunderstorm over the central Tibetan Plateau is investigated for the first time, based on the data from very high frequency interferometer, radar and sounding. During the developing-mature stage, the TP thunderstorm exhibited a tripolar charge structure evolved from an initial inverted dipole. At the mature stage, a bottom-heavy tripole charge structure is clearly presented, with a strong lower positive charge center (LPCC) at temperatures above −10°C, a middle negative charge region between −30°C and −15°C, and an upper positive charge region at T < −30°C. As the LPCC was depleted, the charge structure evolved into a normal tripole with a pocket LPCC. The merging between different convective cells resulted in the formation of two adjacent negative charge regions located directly and obliquely above the LPCC, and horizontally arranged different charge regions were simultaneously involved in the same lightning discharge.

Abstract

Midlatitude Europe (ME) emerges as a prominent heatwave hotspot with rapid increases in summer surface air temperature and heatwave days since 1979, surpassing the global land averages by approximately 2.6 and 2.3 times, respectively. The circulation analogs-based dynamic adjustment reveals that approximately 38% and 35% of these trends result from shifts in zonal dipolar circulation patterns over the North Atlantic (NA) and Europe, crucial for the enhanced warming compared to the global land average. The circulation changes are associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the NA. This warming pattern resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and is predominantly induced by greenhouse gases. Moreover, the stronger air temperature response in ME to decreased aerosols amplifies warming, contributing to the rapid increase in heatwave frequency. These findings highlight a prominent influence of anthropogenic forcings on the swift surge of European heatwaves compared to global land, with a potential implication for adaptation strategies and risk management.

Abstract

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

Abstract

Detecting crustal deformation during transient deformation events at offshore subduction zones remains challenging. The spatiotemporal evolution of slow slip events (SSEs) on the offshore Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand, during February–July 2019, is revealed through a time-dependent inversion of onshore and offshore geodetic data that also accounts for spatially varying elastic crustal properties. Our model is constrained by seafloor pressure time series (as a proxy for vertical seafloor deformation), onshore continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar displacements. Large GNSS displacements onshore and uplift of the seafloor (10–33 mm) require peak slip during the event of 150 to >200 mm at 6–12 km depth offshore Hawkes Bay and Gisborne, comparable to maximum slip observed during previous seafloor pressure deployments at north Hikurangi. The onshore and offshore data reveal a complex evolution of the SSE, over a period of months. Seafloor pressure data indicates the slow slip may have persisted longer near the trench than suggested by onshore GNSS stations in both the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay regions. Seafloor pressure data also reveal up-dip migration of SSE slip beneath Hawke Bay occurred over a period of a few weeks. The SSE source region appears to coincide with locations of the March 1947 M w 7.0–7.1 tsunami earthquake offshore Gisborne and estimated great earthquake rupture sources from paleoseismic investigations offshore Hawkes Bay, suggesting that the shallow megathrust at north and central Hikurangi is capable of both seismic and aseismic rupture.

Abstract

The Anninghe Fault (ANHF) is a major left-lateral strike-slip fault in southwestern China and one of the main seismogenic fault zones with a history of strong earthquakes. To understand the frictional properties of natural granitic gouges from the principal slip zone, we conducted hydrothermal friction experiments using both saw-cut and ring shear methods. These experiments were performed at temperatures (T) of 25–600°C, pore pressures (P f) of zero (dry), 30 and 100 MPa, sliding velocities (V) of 0.01–100 μm/s and effective normal stresses (σneff ${\sigma }_{\mathrm{n}}^{\text{eff}}$) of 68, 100, and 200 MPa. The (apparent) friction coefficient is low (μ < 0.5) at high T (600°C), high P f (100 MPa) and low V (<1 μm/s); but high (μ > 0.6) under all other T, P f and V conditions. Under high P f, the velocity dependence of friction, (a-b), displays three regimes with increasing temperature, from positive below ∼100°C to negative at 100–300°C (at V = 1–3 μm/s) or else 100–450°C (at V = 30–100 μm/s), becoming positive again above 300–450°C. At low P f, the negative (a-b) expands to the range ∼300–600°C. Microstructural observations and microphysical interpretation imply that the frictional weakening and transitions in (a-b) are related to competition between dilatant granular flow and deformation of the fine-grained gouge by intergranular pressure solution accompanied by healing phenomena (leading to cavitation-creep-like behavior). Our results provide a possible explanation for the distribution of earthquakes at different depths in the continental crust, in particular for the depth range of the seismogenic zone between 4 and 24 km along the ANHF.

Abstract

The mechanical behavior and failure mode of porous rocks vary with their microstructures. The formation of compaction bands (CBs) has been captured with high precision via in situ synchrotron CT and kinematic characteristics can be attained by image analysis. However, the stress characteristics cannot be directly evaluated from images, and how porosity heterogeneity triggers local instability and leads to the formation of CBs is not yet fully understood. To address this problem, we established a finite element (FE) model of the solid skeleton of a Leitha limestone sample based on X-ray μCT data, considering the heterogeneity of pores and plastic hardening, and reproduced the evolution of strain localization and CBs. Our results revealed that the heterogeneity of porosity has a profound influence on the formation and propagation of CBs. Precursory stresses always appear very early around the pores where compaction bands develop, and the stress state of most points in CBs is quasi-uniaxial compression, which has significantly high maximum principal stress σ 1 in a direction subparallel to the sample axis, causing yield then compaction failure. Also, using a simplified FE mesh and ignoring the fracture of particles underestimate the extreme stress and porosity reduction—these can be improved by using fine mesh and involving grain-scale fracture mechanics. Our study proves the feasibility and reliability of the CT-FE simulation scheme, which can be extended to investigating the stress distribution and evolution of different rock types with a spectrum of failure modes if in situ CT data of rock deformation is available.

Abstract

The Eldgjá eruption is the largest basalt lava flood of the Common Era. It has been linked to a major ice-core sulfur (S) spike in 939–940 CE and Northern Hemisphere summer cooling in 940 CE. Despite its magnitude and potential climate impacts, uncertainties remain concerning the eruption timeline, atmospheric dispersal of emitted volatiles, and coincident volcanism in Iceland and elsewhere. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of Greenland ice-cores from 936 to 943 CE, revealing a complex volatile record and cryptotephra with numerous geochemical populations. Transitional alkali basalt tephra matching Eldgjá are found in 939–940 CE, while tholeiitic basalt shards present in 936/937 CE and 940/941 CE are compatible with contemporaneous Icelandic eruptions from Grímsvötn and Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn systems (including V-Sv tephra). We also find four silicic tephra populations, one of which we link to the Jala Pumice of Ceboruco (Mexico) at 941 ± 1 CE. Triple S isotopes, Δ33S, spanning 936–940 CE are indicative of upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric transport of aerosol sourced from the Icelandic fissure eruptions. However, anomalous Δ33S (down to −0.4‰) in 940–941 CE evidence stratospheric aerosol transport consistent with summer surface cooling revealed by tree-ring reconstructions. Tephra associated with the anomalous Δ33S have a variety of compositions, complicating the attribution of climate cooling to Eldgjá alone. Nevertheless, our study confirms a major S emission from Eldgjá in 939–940 CE and implicates Eldgjá and a cluster of eruptions as triggers of summer cooling, severe winters, and privations in ∼940 CE.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6711, August 2024.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6711, August 2024.

Abstract

Data products relating to auroral arc systems are often sparse and distributed while ionospheric simulations generally require spatially continuous maps as boundary conditions at the topside ionosphere. Fortunately, all-sky auroral imagery can provide information to fill in the gaps. This paper describes three methods for creating electrostatic plasma convection maps from multi-spectral imagery combined with plasma flow data tracks from heterogeneous sources. These methods are tailored to discrete arc structures with coherent morphologies. The first method, “reconstruction,” builds the electric potential map (from which the flow field is derived) out of numerous arc-like ridges that are then optimized against the plasma flow data. This method is designed for data from localized swarms of spacecraft distributed in both latitude and longitude. The second method, “replication,” uses a 1D across-arc flow data track and replicates these data along a determined primary and secondary arc boundary while simultaneously scaling and rotating to keep the flow direction parallel to the arc and the flow shear localized at the arc boundaries. The third, “weighted replication,” performs a replication on two data tracks and calculates a weighted average between them, where the weighting is based on data track proximity. This paper shows the use of these boundary conditions in driving and assessing 3D auroral ionospheric, multi-fluid simulations.

Abstract

Observations using Arecibo Observatory's highly sensitive Incoherent Scattering Radar (AO-ISR) show ionospheric descending layers from as high as ∼400 km, much higher than earlier studies, with continuity down to 90 km. The AO-ISR was operated to observe the ion-line and plasma-line with coded-long-pulse for high temporal and spatial resolution of 35/10 s and 300 m, respectively, during 01–06 February 2019. We found multiple layering structures descending from 400 to 90 km in all these six days. These layers are traditionally called intermediate descending layers (IDLs) (>130 km and below F-peak), upper semi-diurnal daytime and nighttime layers (110–130 km), and lower diurnal layers (<110 km). We have denoted the new daytime descending layers above the hmF2 as top-side descending layers (TDLs). All these layers are collectively named ionospheric descending layers (IonDLs) since all of them are connected with some discontinuity at the F1-peak (i.e., 170 km), except for the daytime lower-diurnal layer. The most pronounced IonDLs occur in the twilight times. IonDLs mainly occur in shear zones of the vertical ion drifts and are favored by downward ion drifts, and their descent speeds increase with increasing altitude. The estimated phase velocities of the waves in the F-region are comparable with the descending speed of the IonDLs. Furthermore, IonDLs/IDLs occur with and without spread-F events but intensified spread-F events raise their beginning altitude. The TDLs and IDLs are driven by gravity waves with periods of 1.5–4 hr.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6711, Page 835-835, August 2024.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6711, Page 834-834, August 2024.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6711, Page 892-898, August 2024.