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Under the lead of the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), climate simulations were used to investigate how 19 inland seas, including the Baltic Sea, are responding to climate change. The researchers found that they have been warming faster than the global ocean since the 2000s. Projections show that marine heat waves will affect around 60% of these seas on an average annual basis as early as the middle of the 21st century. Without adherence to the Paris Agreement targets, up to 90% of these seas would be affected by heat waves. The study contributes to climate change management practices and was published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

For decades, Antarctica seemed to defy global warming. Since satellites began monitoring the poles in the late 1970s, the seasonal growth and retreat of Antarctic sea ice—frozen seawater that expands around the continent each winter—appeared remarkably resilient. It was often described as the "heartbeat of the planet."

As seismic waves travel through Earth, they gradually lose energy, a process called attenuation. That energy loss doesn't happen uniformly—some features in the crust sap far more energy from seismic waves than others. Researchers can map underground features by watching where seismic waves lose more or less energy. The Southern Array for the Lithosphere and Uplift of Taiwan Experiment (SALUTE) is doing just that, providing information that could lead to improved seismic hazard planning in the country.

Accurate experiments on how ocean warming affects marine life are vital to ensure we can best prepare for the future, protect our food sources, and help safeguard ocean ecosystems. But some of these experiments may miss how species actually respond to rising temperatures. According to a meta-analysis published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, the way these changes are studied may not match the reality of our warming seas.

An international team of researchers' analysis of minerals from the Pilbara region of Western Australia has given new insight into how ancient continents on Earth formed as far back as 3.5 billion years ago. Professor Tony Kemp, from The University of Western Australia's School of Earth and Oceans, was a co-author of the study published in Science Advances, which was led by researchers at Nanjing University in China.

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A warm, dry spring has set the stage for above-average significant wildland fire risk across much of the southern and western United States this summer, and no part of the United States will have below-average fire potential through the end of August.

“It’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a really busy season, but everything is pointing that way.”

These predictions are part of a 4-month outlook produced monthly by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), a group of wildland fire experts from eight federal agencies that coordinates wildland fire resources across the country.

The most recent outlook, published 1 May, projects the likelihood of significant fires (defined as those that require an NIFC response) from May to August using long-term forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, current precipitation and drought conditions, and an assessment of the fuels available in different regions (like grasses, brush, and timber).

This year, 1,848,210 acres across the country have already burned—nearly twice the annual average over the past 10 years.

“It’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a really busy season, but everything is pointing that way,” said Jim Wallmann, a meteorologist for the U.S. Forest Service at the NIFC and one of the outlook’s authors.

Significant wildland fire potential will be elevated across much of the West and Southeast this summer. Click image for larger version. Credit: National Interagency Coordination Center, Public Domain Drought in the West

In the West, wildfire season typically peaks in late summer. This most recent outlook predicts an above-average significant fire potential for much of the West as the season peaks.

In May, the above-average risk is concentrated in eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, though that risk fades to normal by August as the Southwest’s monsoon season begins. In June, the above-average risk extends to western Colorado and parts of the Pacific Northwest. In July and August, that risk covers much of the Northwest, including Utah, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Northern California.

Above-average spring temperatures and a far-below-normal snowpack across the West are contributing to the elevated risk in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Northern California, in particular. Many river basins across the West contain less than 20% of their normal amount of snow, and some are already snow-free at all observed locations due to melting caused by warm temperatures in March.

As of May, many river basins in the West have a snow water equivalent—the amount of water held in their current snowpack—that is less than 50% (in red) of the 1991–2020 average level. Credit: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, Public Domain

“The snowpack being lower this time of year, and melting out, affects the soil moisture throughout the rest of the summer, which then affects the fuel moistures,” said Craig Clements, a meteorologist at San Jose State University’s Fire Weather Research Laboratory who was not involved in the outlook. Early snowmelt also uncovers fuels, like pine needles and leaf litter, that would typically be under snow, exposing them to the air to dry and catch fire.

Southern California and the Sierra Nevada mountain range, though, remain at an average significant fire risk throughout the summer, as a result of higher-than-average precipitation earlier in the year.

The Southeast and Beyond

Fire risk will also be elevated in the Southeast this summer. Florida, for example, remains at an above-average significant fire potential through the end of August. Southern Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and the eastern halves of Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina will also have above-average significant fire potential.

The above-average risk is fueled, in part, by a worsening drought affecting the Southeast alongside the drought in the West. As of 1 May, nearly 63% of the country was experiencing drought, and 19% of the country was experiencing extreme or exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a persistent drought for most of the West and much of the Southeast this summer. Credit: NOAA/National Weather Service/Climate Prediction Center, Public Domain

The Midwest and the Northeast will remain at an average significant fire potential from May to August, though northwestern Minnesota faces an above-average potential in May.

No place in the United States is projected to have a below-average significant fire potential through the end of August.

Preparing Amid Uncertainty

A developing El Niño—a climate phenomenon that affects heat storage in the ocean—could alter the fire risk projections. Scientists expect that a strong El Niño could lead to a below-normal hurricane season, worsening drought in the Southeast. In the Pacific, a strong El Niño could intensify the hurricane season, which may lower wildfire risk.

However, a stronger El Niño could drive more lightning strikes in the Sierra Nevada, which could increase fire risk there, Clements said. In 2020, for example—a strong El Niño year—Hurricane Elida in the Pacific contributed to a lightning outbreak that supercharged wildfires in the West.

“We’re still not sure exactly how [El Niño] is going to impact the season.”

“We’re still not sure exactly how [El Niño] is going to impact the season,” Wallmann said. As late summer approaches, meteorologists will better understand how El Niño will develop and affect wildfire risk.

Weather patterns can change, and day-to-day conditions still play a role in fire occurrence. “If the weather shifts, or we get a really big heat wave, it can modify [the forecast]. Or if it remains relatively moderate, that might lessen the fire danger,” Clements said. “We’ll just have to see how the weather plays out.”

Wallmann and Clements emphasized that those living in areas with elevated fire risk should be aware of their surroundings and think ahead about where they might go for safety should a wildfire occur. “Having that situational awareness ahead of time can help you make better decisions,” Wallmann said.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), Most of the U.S. West will face above-normal wildfire risk this summer, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260145. Published on 11 May 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

As seismic waves travel through Earth, they gradually lose energy, a process called attenuation. That energy loss doesn’t happen uniformly—some features in the crust sap far more energy from seismic waves than others. Researchers can map underground features by watching where seismic waves lose more or less energy. The Southern Array for the Lithosphere and Uplift of Taiwan Experiment (SALUTE) is doing just that, providing information that could lead to improved seismic hazard planning in the country.

Lin et al. report attenuation results from SALUTE focused on the convergence between the Eurasian plate and the Luzon Arc, an understudied, geologically dynamic area where Earth’s crust is deforming. Using the overall attenuation rate and relative attenuation rates of P and S seismic waves, the authors imaged active faults, identified distinct lithologies, and better resolved the Luzon forearc block that sits just offshore of Taiwan.

The authors used data from the SALUTE high-density seismographic network, spanning December 2020 to December 2023, to construct both 2D and 3D attenuation models. They found clear changes in attenuation associated with major faults, as well as areas of high attenuation associated with fluid-rich, ductile zones in the lower crust that cause tectonic tremors. Their attenuation imaging additionally revealed that the Luzon forearc block, which had been poorly imaged in the past, dips northward and narrows as it nears the convergence zone.

The authors say their results agree well with previous velocity-based seismic imaging studies and show that attenuation can image features, such as transition zones, that were previously difficult to capture. Their data could also be useful for better understanding seismic hazard throughout the region, they note. (Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121583, 2026)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2026), Seismic attenuation techniques reveal what lies beneath Taiwan, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260150. Published on 11 May 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Author(s): Tianyi Liang, Dong Wu, Lifeng Wang, Lianqiang Shan, Zongqiang Yuan, Hongbo Cai, Yuqiu Gu, Zhengmao Sheng, and Xiantu He

In indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion (ICF), a hohlraum serves the purpose of converting laser energy into thermal x-ray energy. This process involves the interaction of low-density ablated plasmas, which can give rise to weakly collisional shocks characterized by the Knudsen number Kn on th…

[Phys. Rev. E 113, 055206] Published Mon May 11, 2026

Author(s): E. Illarionov, V. Kisielius, R. Stepanov, and K. M. Kuzanyan

Physical models aimed to reproduce basic features of the solar sunspot cycle are typically based on the solar dynamo mechanism. Usually qualitative arguments are used to define parameters of the model, among which a challenging component is the nonlinear form of quenching of the α effect governing r…

[Phys. Rev. E 113, L053202] Published Mon May 11, 2026

Researchers have made the ground shake in southern Switzerland, triggering thousands of tiny earthquakes in a monitored setting, as they seek to discover seismicity insights that could reduce risks.

On the evening of Aug. 9, 2025, passengers on the Hanse Explorer finished taking selfies and videos of the South Sawyer Glacier, and the ship headed back down the fjord. Twelve hours later, a landslide from the adjacent mountain unexpectedly collapsed into the fjord, initiating the second-highest tsunami in recorded history.

A key Atlantic Ocean current system that helps regulate the planet's climate could weaken more than expected by 2100, with potentially devastating consequences worldwide, a new study has found.

How are cold air masses advancing in the United States connected to fertilizers carried by "flying rivers" from Africa that nourish the soils of the Brazilian Amazon? An article published in Geophysical Research Letters reveals an atmospheric connection between these distant regions.

We replaced the stove with plywood, turning the kitchen of the dive boat into an impromptu research lab. Plugging in wires and connecting tubing, we assembled a scientific instrument within the cramped cabin. Then we cast off into Halifax Harbor, Canada, surveying the turquoise waters for signs of an unusual test: could we use the ocean itself to remove carbon dioxide from the air?

Imagine being tasked with counting every blade of grass in a field, noting every single species as you go. This is not far from the challenge many scientists face when analyzing microscopic samples packed with thousands of tiny particles.

What's the link between the global economy and the climate? Consumption drives extraction and carbon emissions. But there is more. The inequalities of the global economy don't just shape what goes into the atmosphere. They affect our understanding of the climate and our perspectives when it comes to possible solutions.

SummaryMicroseismic source location is essential for seismic monitoring and subsurface resource exploitation. Both traveltime inversion and waveform stacking methods suffer from limited accuracy when processing low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data under complex velocity models. Existing deep learning approaches mainly employ purely data-driven strategies without physical constraints, exhibiting limited capability to suppress large and unexpected location errors. We propose a physics-constrained deep learning method for microseismic source location that integrates the physical principles of cross-correlation stacking (CCS) imaging into network training. The method incorporates a joint loss function combining source imaging quality loss and traveltime consistency loss, with a Pareto dynamic weighting strategy to balance different loss components. Synthetic experiments on the Marmousi velocity model demonstrate that the joint-constrained method reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) from 34.09 m to 27.91 m compared to the purely data-driven approach. The maximum error decreases from 280.18 m to 130.38 m, a 53.5% reduction, demonstrating effective suppression of large location errors. The trained network achieves single-event imaging prediction in 0.04 s, providing a 75-fold speedup over the 3 s required by conventional CCS. The proposed method shows great potential in near-real-time microseismic monitoring with dense arrays.

When Cyclone Gabrielle tore through New Zealand's Tairāwhiti region in 2023, it left behind more than silt and floodwaters.

Publication date: Available online 5 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Anatolii Alpatov, Erik Lapkhanov

Publication date: Available online 5 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Chengzhi Xie, Xiao Chen, Tianle Wei, Yuxin Ding, Yuhuan Cui, Shuang Hao