Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: A case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-205,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26 year period to determine if changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction there have been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.

The quest for reference stations at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Antonia Papageorgiou, Erion-Vasilis Pikoulis, Spyros Liakopoulos, Fevronia Gkika, Ziya Cekinmez, Panagiotis Savvaidis, Kalliopi Fragouli, and Christos P. Evangelidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Greek seismic data are valuable in European and even global databases, due to its high seismicity and numerous seismic stations. Seismic data coming from stations that lie on rock (i.e., not soil) sits are particularly valuable in seismology to define reference ground conditions and ground motions. However, little knowledge exists yet on how rock stations in Greece behave. This is the first time the network of the National Observatory is studied systematically to reveal reference stations.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the South China Sea Based on Geodetic Locking of the Manila Subduction Zone
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-227,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data is used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.

Quantitative Study of Storm Surge Risk Assessment in Undeveloped Coastal Area of China Based on Deep Learning and Geographic Information System (GIS) Techniques: A Case Study of Double-Moon Bay Zone
Lichen Yu, Shining Huang, Hao Qin, Wei Wei, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-199,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining the adjusted depth-damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zonation maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce coastal area losses.

Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.

Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.

Review article: Physical Vulnerability Database for Critical Infrastructure Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments – A systematic review and data collection
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-208,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Critical infrastructures (CI) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. The vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in literature. Our study reviews over 1,250 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can directly be used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms and landslides.

Forearc crustal faulting and estimated worst-case tsunami scenario in the upper plate of subduction zones. Case study of the Morne Piton Fault system (Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe Archipelago)
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Using novel geophysical datasets we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton Fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm.yr-1, dividing by five previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative for the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if the whole Fault segments would ruptured together.