Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Lesser Antilles Seismotectonic Zoning Model for Seismic Hazard Assessment
Oceane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Hervé Jomard, Didier Bertil, and the Lesser Antilles Working Group
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-53,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
By analyzing historical and instrumental seismic data, fault knowledge and geodetic measurements, we provide a new understanding of seismic hazard in the Lesser Antilles via seismotectonic zoning. We propose new models that can have a significant impact on seismic hazard assessment, such as the inclusion of mantle wedge seismicity, volcanic seismicity and a complete revision of the subduction interface zoning.

Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.

Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.

Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Alison Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-51,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range; Summer 2022 ~28 % lower and Autumn 2023 ~42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could improve water supply resilience and flood risk management.

Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.

Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-20,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Explore our paper on improving flood prediction using advanced weather models. We coupled the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS to enhance accuracy. Discover how our findings contribute to adaptive atmospheric-hydrologic systems for effective flood forecasting.

A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.

Regional-scale analysis of weather-related rockfall triggering mechanisms in Norway, and its sensitivity to climate change
Rosa M. Palau, Kjersti Gleditsch Gisnås, Anders Solheim, and Graham Lewis Gilbert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-46,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
This paper looks at the relationship between rockfalls and weather conditions in two regions of Norway. The study explores how often rockfalls occur and how this might change in the future due to climate change. The results indicate that changes in temperature, rather than just heavy rain or snow melt, can have a big impact on the time rockfalls happen. In particular, when temperatures oscillate up and down, rockfalls are observed more often.

An updated EAWS matrix to determine the avalanche danger level: derivation, usage, and consistency
Karsten Müller, Frank Techel, and Christoph Mitterer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-48,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Avalanche forecasting is crucial for mountain safety. Tools like the European Avalanche Danger Scale and Matrix set standards for forecasters, but consistency still varies. We analyzed the use of the EAWS Matrix, aiding danger level assignment. Our analysis shows inconsistencies, suggesting further need for refinement and training.

Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.

SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.

Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree River basin, Germany
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in water management, spatial and landscape planning in the Spree River basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this planning gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures and the adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.

Risk Assessment and Mechanism of Water Inrush in Water-rich Deep-buried Karst Tunnel
Xin Zhang, Mingtang Lei, Shaoqing Wang, Xiaotian Zhang, Hai Chen, and Xiaozhen Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-56,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This research investigates water inrush disasters in water-rich, deep-buried karst tunnels, focusing on the Nahecun tunnel. By analyzing hydrogeological characteristics and identifying key factors contributing to water inrush disasters, a risk assessment system is developed and validated through field experiments.

Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.

Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.

A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.

Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.

Modeling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-41,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Modeling the tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. We propose and test, under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, an efficient solution to this problem, and a tool which can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean of the world. We will explore in the future solutions which would allow us to model the tsunami generation also by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.

Study on Multi-water Sources Allocation Based on Multi-scenario potential tapping under Extreme Drought: An Example from the Yellow River Water Supply Area in Henan
Fang Wan, Shaoming Peng, Yu Wang, Xiaokang Zheng, Fei Zhang, Weihao Wang, and Xiaohui Shen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-31,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In this paper, the Yellow River water supply area is taken as an example. According to PDSI, the extreme drought years are selected to obtain the water shortage in each water supply area. According to different potential mining measures, different water supply scenarios are set up to explore multi-scenario supply increase under extreme drought conditions. The allocation model is constructed, and a multi-scenario supply allocation scheme is proposed.