Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Review article: Research progress on influencing factors, data, and methods for early identification of landslide hazards
Heng Lu, Zhengli Yang, Kai Song, Zhijie Zhang, Chao Liu, Ruihua Nie, Lei Ma, Wanchang Zhang, Gang Fan, Chen Chen, and Min Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-68,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
1. Sort out the characteristics, functions, links, and application scope of various measuring tools. 2. Bibliometric analysis of early identification methods for landslide hazards. 3. Review the influencing factors of landslides and summarize data links and application literature. 4. Focused on analyzing 5 early landslide identification methods. 5. In-depth exploration of the internal connections of literature and future development directions.

How can seismo-volcanic catalogues be improved or created using robust neural networks through weakly supervised approaches?
Manuel Titos, Carmen Benítez, Milad Kowsari, and Jesús M. Ibáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-102,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Developing seismo-volcanic monitoring tools is crucial for Volcanic Observatories. Our study reviews current methods using Transfer Learning techniques and finds that while these systems identify nearly 90 % of seismic events, they miss other important volcanic data due to the catalogue-learning bias. We propose a weakly supervised technique to reduce bias and uncover new volcanic information. This method can improve existing databases and create new ones efficiently using machine learning.

Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.

Simulation of a lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere electromagnetic coupling prior to the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake
Mei Li, Zhuangkai Wang, Chen Zhou, Handong Tan, and Meng Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-94,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In order to check the relationship between ground-based electromagnetic anomaly and ionospheric effect before the famous Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake, three physical models have been established to simulate the communication process of electromagnetic energy from the Wenchuan hypocenter to the Earth’s surface, via the atmosphere to the ionosphere to cause ionospheric variations.

Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.

2021 Alaska Earthquake: entropy approach to its precursors and aftershock regimes
Eugenio E. Vogel, Denisse Pastén, Gonzalo Saravia, Michel Aguilera, and Antonio Posadas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-106,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
For the first time, an entropy analysis has been performed in Alaska, a seismic-rich region located in a subduction zone that shows non-trivial behavior: the subduction arc changes seismic activity from the eastern zone to the western zone, showing a decrease in this activity along subduction. This study shows how an entropy approach can help understand seismicity in subduction zones.

A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.

Conversion relationships between Modified Mercalli Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration for historical shallow crustal earthquakes in Mexico
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Seismic intensity reflects earthquake damage, although this parameter is often subjective. On the other hand, peak acceleration values are a direct measure of earthquake effects. Seismic intensity was used to describe historical earthquakes, and its use is rare today. For this reason, it is important to have a relationship between these parameters of strong movements in order to predict the acceleration of historical earthquakes.

Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.

Tangible and intangible ex-post assessment of flood-induced damages to cultural heritage
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-104,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
The work describes the flood damages to cultural heritage (CH) occurred in the event of September 2022 in Central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts to cultural heritage are rare and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of the flood, i.e., water depth and flow velocity. The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.

Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.

It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr valley, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The July 2021 flood in Central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the past decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory was only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps better prepare for future extreme floods.

The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) v.2
Grant Statham and Cam Campbell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-89,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is an avalanche terrain rating system used for terrain assessment and risk communication in public and workplace avalanche safety practices. This paper introduces ATES v.2, an update to the system that expands the original scale from three levels to five by including Class 0 – Non-Avalanche Terrain, and Class 4 – Extreme Terrain. The updated models for assessment and communication are described in detail, along with methods for the application of ATES.

Predicting Deep-Seated Landslide Displacements in Mountains through the Integration of Convolutional Neural Networks and Age of Exploration-Inspired Optimizer
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-86,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study enhances landslide prediction using advanced machine learning, including new algorithms inspired by historical explorations. The research accurately forecasts landslide movements by analyzing eight years of data from Taiwan's Lushan Mountain, improving early warnings and potentially saving lives and infrastructure. This integration marks a significant advancement in environmental risk management.

Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.

Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-100,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves storm surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in storm surge estimates.

Flood hazard mapping and disaster prevention recommendations based on detailed topographical analysis in Khovd City, Western Mongolia
Narangerel Serdyanjiv, Suzuki Yasuhiro, Hasegawa Tomonori, and Takaichi Yoshiyuki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-91,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The present study considers the hazard areas of rainfall-derived river floods and flash floods flowing into Khovd City. We consider geomorphological elements such as terrace profiles, floodplains, riverbeds, gullies and depressions to derive detailed topographical and directional hazard maps. This study results provide valuable insights for the Administration of Government and Emergency Department of Khovd to protect citizens from flood hazards.

Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.

A Holocene alpine seismic chronicle from Lake Aiguebelette (NW French Alps)
Mathilde Banjan, Christian Crouzet, Hervé Jomard, Pierre Sabatier, David Marsan, and Erwan Messager
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-83,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This research shows how lake sediments reveal seismic activity history over extended periods, surpassing historical records. Sediment analysis from Lake Aiguebelette in the Western Alps found 32 layers likely caused by earthquakes over the Holocene. Robust dating methods correlated these layers with known historical earthquakes. Results suggest Lake Aiguebelette's sediment records mainly reflect local seismic events, enhancing understanding of earthquake recurrence and regional seismic history.

Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range fire weather index forecasts in Europe
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-57,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible risk for wildfires but requires post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. We present a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistical post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 days. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with elevated FWI values.