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Abstract

In peninsular India, the Deccan Traps record massive, continental-scale volcanism in a sequence of magmatic events that corresponds with the timing of mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Although the Deccan volcanism is linked with the Réunion hotspot, the origin of its periodic magmatic pulses is still debated. We developed a numerical model replicating the geodynamic scenario of the African superplume underneath a moving Indian plate to explore the mechanism of magmatic pulse generation during the Deccan volcanism. Our model results revealed a connection between the Réunion hotspot and the African large low shear-wave velocity province (LLSVP), suggesting that the pulses were produced from a thermochemical plume originated in the lower mantle. The ascending plume had stagnation at 660 km due to phase changes in the transition zone, and its head eventually underwent detachment from the tail under the influence of Indian plate movement to produce sequentially four major pulses (periodicity: 5–8 Ma), each giving rise to multiple secondary magmatic pulses at a time interval of ∼0.15–0.4 Ma. This study sheds a new light on the mechanism of periodic hotspot activities from a global perspective.

Revealing halos concealed by cirrus clouds
Yuji Ayatsuka
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3739–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3739-2024, 2024
Many types of halos appear in the sky. Each type of halo reflects the state of the atmosphere; therefore observing them from the ground greatly helps in understanding the state of the atmosphere. However, halos are easily obscured by the contrast of the cloud itself, making it difficult to observe them. This study describes the construction of a sky-color model for halos and a new effective algorithm to reveal halos in images.

Algorithm to retrieve aerosol optical properties using lidar measurements on board the EarthCARE satellite
Tomoaki Nishizawa, Rei Kudo, Eiji Oikawa, Akiko Higurashi, Yoshitaka Jin, Nobuo Sugimoto, Kaori Sato, and Hajime Okamoto
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-100,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We developed algorithms to produce JAXA ATLID L2 aerosol products using ATLID L1 data. The algorithms estimate layer identifiers such as aerosol or cloud layers, (2) particle optical properties at 355 nm, (3) particle type identifiers, and (4) planetary boundary layer height. We demonstrated the algorithm performance using the simulated ATLID L1 data and found the algorithm’s capability to provide valuable insights into the global distribution of aerosols and clouds.

Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.

Abstract

The prediction of post-sunset equatorial plasma depletions (EPDs), often called ionospheric plasma bubbles, has remained a challenge for decades. In this study, we introduce the Ionospheric Bubble Probability (IBP) model, an empirical model to predict the occurrence probability of EPDs derived from 9 years of CHAMP and 9 years of Swarm magnetic field measurements. The model predicts the occurrence probability of EPDs for a given longitude, day of year, local time and solar activity, for the altitude range of about 350–510 km, and low geographic latitudes of ±45°. IBP has been found to successfully reconstruct the distribution of EPDs as reported in previous studies from independent data. IBP has been further evaluated using 1-year of untrained data of the Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI). IBI is a Level 2 product of the Swarm satellite mission used for EPD identification. The relative operating characteristics (ROC) curve shows positive excursion above the no-skill line with Hanssen and Kuiper's Discriminant (H&KSS) score of 0.52, 0.51, and 0.55 at threshold model output of 0.16 for Swarm A, B, and C satellites. Additionally, the reliability plots show proximity to the diagonal line with a decent Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.249, 0.210, and 0.267 for Swarm A, B, and C respectively at 15% climatological occurrence rate. These tests indicate that the model performs significantly better than a no-skill forecast. The IBP model offers compelling glimpses into the future of EPD forecasting, thus demonstrating its potential to reliably predict EPD occurrences. The IBP model is publicly available.

Abstract

The sequence of events associated with the triggering of energy release during substorm expansion phase onset is still not well-understood. Oberhagemann and Mann (2020b, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085271) proposed a new substorm onset mechanism, where the transition toward parallel proton pressure anisotropy during tail stretching in the late growth phase could trigger a pressure anisotropic ballooning instability. Here we examine the evolution of energetic proton parallel pressure anisotropy at geosynchronous altitudes, seeking evidence in support of the proposed substorm onset mechanism. We use the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) proton flux and magnetometer data combined with substorm onset indicators derived from ground-based magnetometers. Superposed epoch analysis of substorm onset times for 2014 using the isolated substorm list (Ohtani & Gjerloev, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ja027902) clearly shows signatures of energetic proton parallel pressure anisotropy immediately before substorm onset, potentially supportive of the Oberhagemann and Mann theory.

Abstract

Low-cost instrumentation combined with volunteering and citizen science educational initiatives allowed the deployment of L-band scintillation monitors to remote sense areas that are geomagnetically conjugated and located at low-to-mid latitudes in the American sector (Quebradillas in Puerto Rico and Santa Maria in Brazil). On 10 and 11 October, 2023, both monitors detected severe scintillations, some reaching dip latitudes beyond 26°N. The observations show conjugacy in the spatio-temporal evolution of the scintillation-causing irregularities. With the aid of collocated all-sky airglow imager observations, it was shown that the observed scintillation event was caused by extreme equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) reaching geomagnetic apex altitudes exceeding 2,200 km. The observations suggest that geomagnetic conjugate large-scale structures produced conditions for the development of intermediate scale (few 100 s of meters) in both hemispheres, leading to scintillation at conjugate locations. Finally, unlike previous reports, it is shown that the extreme EPBs-driven scintillation reported here developed under geomagnetically quiet conditions.

Abstract

The distribution and magnitude of forces driving lithospheric deformation in the India-Eurasia collision zone have been debated over many decades. Here we test a two-dimensional (2-D) Thin Viscous Shell approach that has been adapted to explicitly account for displacement on major faults and investigate the impact of lateral variations in depth-averaged lithospheric strength. We present a suite of dynamic models to explain the key features from new high-resolution Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar as well as Global Navigation Satellite System velocities. Comparisons between calculated and geodetically observed velocity and strain rate fields indicate: (a) internal buoyancy forces from Gravitational Potential Energy acting on a relatively weak region of highest topography (>2,000 m) contribute to dilatation of the high plateau and contraction on the margins; (b) a weak central Tibetan Plateau (∼1021 Pa s compared to far-field depth-averaged effective viscosity of at least 1022–1023 Pa s) is required to explain the observed long-wavelength eastward velocity variation; (c) localized displacement on fault systems enables strain concentration and clockwise rotation around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis. We discuss the tectonic implications for rheology of the lithosphere, distribution of geodetic strain, and partitioning of active faulting and seismicity.

Abstract

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, originating from solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections, present significant hazards to space exploration and technology on Earth. Accurate prediction of these high-energy events is essential for safeguarding astronauts, spacecraft, and electronic systems. In this study, we conduct an in-depth investigation into the application of multimodal data fusion techniques for the prediction of high-energy SEP events, particularly ∼100 MeV events. Our research utilizes six machine learning (ML) models, each finely tuned for time series analysis, including Univariate Time Series (UTS), Image-based model (Image), Univariate Feature Concatenation (UFC), Univariate Deep Concatenation (UDC), Univariate Deep Merge (UDM), and Univariate Score Concatenation (USC). By combining time series proton flux data with solar X-ray images, we exploit complementary insights into the underlying solar phenomena responsible for SEP events. Rigorous evaluation metrics, including accuracy, F1-score, and other established measures, are applied, along with K-fold cross-validation, to ensure the robustness and generalization of our models. Additionally, we explore the influence of observation window sizes on classification accuracy.

Abstract

The accurate representation of Cold Air Outbreaks (CAOs) and affiliated mixed-phase boundary layer (BL) clouds in models is challenging. How BL cloud properties evolve during CAOs and their dependence on meteorological conditions is not well understood but is important for the simulation of Earth's energy budgets. Here the properties of polar BL clouds over the North Atlantic (NA) and Southern Ocean (SO) are compared using observations from the Measurements of Aerosol Radiation and CloUds over the SO (MARCUS) and CAOs in the Marine BL Experiment (COMBLE) conducted over the NA. MARCUS observations show a stronger BL inversion than COMBLE, with a higher mean EIS (estimated inversion strength)/LTS (lower tropospheric stability) of −0.03 K/13 K compared to COMBLE’s −3.2 K/9.3 K. 39% of CAOs observed during COMBLE were intense with M > 5 K, while MARCUS only had 1.3%. 78%/72% of clouds sampled in CAOs during COMBLE/MARCUS had cloud top heights <4 km. The mean BL cloud top height was over 400 m higher, and the BL was over 500 m deeper for M of 10 K compared to 0 K for both regions. MARCUS observed a 27% moister BL structure than COMBLE when M > 5 K due to stronger BL inversion trapping more moisture within the BL. Under the same LTS, EIS, and M conditions, MARCUS observed a 12% drier BL structure, and clouds were 46% more turbulent than COMBLE. During CAOs, 54% of single-layer BL clouds sampled during MARCUS had liquid-dominated bases compared to 39% during COMBLE.

Abstract

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are a leading source of uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. Remote marine boundary layers where accumulation mode (∼100–400 nm diameter) aerosol concentrations are relatively low are very susceptible to aerosol changes. These regions also experience heightened Aitken mode aerosol (∼10–100 nm) concentrations associated with ocean biology. Aitken aerosols may significantly influence cloud properties and evolution by replenishing cloud condensation nuclei and droplet number lost through precipitation (i.e., Aitken buffering). We use a large-eddy simulation with an Aitken-mode enabled microphysics scheme to examine the role of Aitken buffering in a mid-latitude decoupled boundary layer cloud regime observed on 15 July 2017 during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic flight campaign: cumulus rising into stratocumulus under elevated Aitken concentrations (∼100–200 mg−1). In situ measurements are used to constrain and evaluate this case study. Our simulation accurately captures observed aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and reveals time-evolving processes driving regime development and evolution. Aitken activation into the accumulation mode in the cumulus layer provides a reservoir for turbulence and convection to carry accumulation aerosols into the drizzling stratocumulus layer above. Further Aitken activation occurs aloft in the stratocumulus layer. Together, these activation events buffer this cloud regime against precipitation removal, reducing cloud break-up and associated increases in heterogeneity. We examine cloud evolution sensitivity to initial aerosol conditions. With halved accumulation number, Aitken aerosols restore accumulation concentrations, maintain droplet number similar to original values, and prevent cloud break-up. Without Aitken aerosols, precipitation-driven cloud break-up occurs rapidly. In this regime, Aitken buffering sustains brighter, more homogeneous clouds for longer.

Abstract

This study investigates the anthropogenic contribution to the summer precipitation changes over southern China and the underlying physical mechanisms. Observations show a wetting trend over southeastern China (SEC) but a drying trend over southwestern China (SWC) in summer of 1961–2014. The dipole pattern can be reasonably reproduced by the anthropogenic forcing simulations of CMIP6 models but with weak trends under the external natural forcing simulations, suggesting the vital human contribution to the observed changes. Particularly, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) dominate the wetting trend over SEC, while the drying trend over SWC is primarily attributed to anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emissions. Further analysis shows that the GHG concentrations enhance the subtropical high over the western North Pacific (WNP) via the heterogeneous warming of the sea surface temperature, decrease the sea level pressure over eastern China, and increase the atmospheric moisture, facilitating the moisture flux convergence (MFC) and the precipitation over SEC. The GHG-induced wetting trend is somewhat offset by the inhibited evaporation due to the AA forcing. For SWC, the decreased precipitation is influenced by the anomalous high pressure from India to WNP, which is closely associated with the enhanced Asian AA emission and the interhemispheric asymmetrical distribution of AA emissions. In the upper troposphere, the uneven AA emissions between South and East Asia and Europe weaken the East Asian summer subtropical jet, resisting the western moisture to SWC. Both factors in the low-and-high levels suppress the MFC and precipitation over SWC, counteracted by the thermodynamical effects of GHG forcing.

Abstract

The dynamic variations of agricultural drought can reflect the water shortage situation of the agricultural system, and there is a progressive relationship in the response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought on a spatiotemporal scale. In this study, the vegetation health index and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index were adopted as agricultural and meteorological drought indicators, respectively. Additionally, using the three-dimensional spatiotemporal clustering technology, the dynamic evolutions of typical drought events were clarified, and the spatiotemporal response characteristics of agricultural drought to meteorological drought were revealed. The results indicated that: (a) there were 81 agricultural drought events in the North China Plain (NCP) during 1982–2020, with a largest drought severity (12.82 × 104 month km2), a 6-month duration, and a 23.24 × 104 km2 affected area occurring in the No. 4 event; (b) from the 1980s to the 2010s, the agricultural drought gradually decreased and large-scale droughts mainly concentrated in the border areas of Hebei, Shandong, and Henan; and (c) a total of 13 drought event pairs were successfully matched in the NCP, including 7 pairs of “one-to-one,” 4 pairs of “one-to-many,” 1 pair of “many-to-one,” and 1 pair of “many-to-many.” The spatiotemporal responses of agricultural drought were elucidated in a three-dimensional perspective, which can propose a new approach for establishing drought propagation model, predicting future agricultural drought conditions, improving ecological environment quality, and can also be applied for the investigation of other drought types.

Abstract

Planetary boundary layer (PBL) modeling is a primary contributor to uncertainties in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model due to difficulties in modeling the turbulent transport of surface fluxes. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has provided many PBL schemes that may feature a non-local transport component driven by large eddies or a one-and-half order turbulence closure model, but few of them possess the two features at once. In the present study, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusivity/viscosity method is integrated into the non-local Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) PBL scheme and implemented in WRF. The original first-order eddy-diffusivity term in ACM2 is discarded and an extra prognostic equation for TKE, which considers the tendency of TKE by buoyancy, wind shear, vertical transport, and dissipative processes, is supplied to calculate the diffusivity/viscosity. Non-local transport is modeled the same as ACM2 using the transilient matrix method. Idealized tests using prescribed surface heat flux and roughness length are performed. TKE-ACM2 displays advantages over the PBL scheme developed by Bougeault and Lacarrère (hereinafter referred to as Boulac) and ACM2 in the wind speeds (WS) profile because it better matches large-eddy simulations results in the surface momentum flux. Real case simulations show that TKE-ACM2 generally outperforms in the diurnal vertical profiles of WS under stable conditions. TKE-ACM2 also produces a better alignment under moderately unstable conditions in the early nighttime at the urban LiDAR station. However, the model exhibits discrepancies more apparently under a more unstable condition during the winter daytime.

Abstract

The evolution of the magma ocean that occupied the early Earth is influenced by the buoyancy of crystals in silicate liquid. At lower mantle pressures, silicate crystals are denser than the iso-chemical liquid, but heavy elements like iron can cause crystals to float if they partition into the liquid phase. Crystal flotation allows for a basal magma ocean, which might explain geochemical anomalies in mantle-derived magmas, seismic anomalies in the lower mantle, and the source of the Earth's early magnetic field. To examine whether a basal magma ocean is gravitationally stable, we investigate the degree of iron partitioning between (Mg,Fe)SiO3 liquid and bridgmanite. By utilizing ab initio molecular dynamics simulations coupled with thermodynamic integration, we find that iron partitions into the liquid, and increasingly so with increasing pressure. Bridgmanite crystals are found to be buoyant at lower mantle conditions, stabilizing the basal magma ocean.

Abstract

Climate change represents a profound threat to the diversity and stability of global climate zones. However, the complex interplay between climate change and elevation in shaping climate heterogeneity is not yet fully understood. Here, we combine Shannon's diversity index (SHDI) with the Köppen-Geiger climate classification to explore the altitudinal distributions of global climate heterogeneity; and their responses to climate change. The study reveals a distinctive pattern: SHDI, a proxy for climate heterogeneity tends to slow down or decline at lower elevations with increasing temperatures, while at higher elevations, it continues to rise due to continuing cold conditions. Examination of climate simulations, both with and without anthropogenic forcing, confirms that observed changes in climate heterogeneity are primarily attributable to anthropogenic climate change within these high-elevation regions. This study underscores the importance of high-elevation regions as not only custodians of diverse climate types but also potential refuges for species fleeing warmer climates.

Abstract

We examine tropical rainfall from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4 (GFDL AM4) at three horizontal resolutions of 100 km, 50 km, and 25 km. The model produces more intense rainfall at finer resolutions, but a large discrepancy still exists between the simulated and the observed frequency distribution. We use a theoretical precipitation scaling diagnostic to examine the frequency distribution of the simulated rainfall. The scaling accurately produces the frequency distribution at moderate-to-high intensity (≥10 mm day−1). Intense tropical rainfall at finer resolutions is produced primarily from the increased contribution of resolved precipitation and enhanced updrafts. The model becomes more sensitive to the grid-scale updrafts than local thermodynamics at high rain rates as the contribution from the resolved precipitation increases.

Abstract

A Cimel Sun-sky-lunar photometer (CE318-T) is designed to perform daytime and nighttime photometric measurements and calculate diurnal cycle of aerosol optical depth (AOD). Nevertheless, the determination of nocturnal AOD from CE318-T requires a precise knowledge of extraterrestrial lunar irradiance, which significantly changes with moon's phase angle (MPA) and lunar libration in a single night. This study evaluated the 1-year nocturnal AODs at Lanzhou by using three different methods, which were validated by collocated measurements of DIAL Lidar (as a reference) and Cimel software (as a proxy). The results indicated that three independent approaches could implement a similar performance to compute nocturnal AOD near full moon phase (i.e., MPA = 0°) under moderate aerosol loading. The spectral AOD values at nighttime calculated by ROLO Lunar Langley (Robotic Lunar Observatory model) and Sun-moon Gain Factor (SMGF) methods are significantly underestimated under low moon's illumination or high MPA (MPA < −47° or MPA > 47°) and distinctly dependent on MPA. The RIMO correction factor (RCF) (ROLO Implementation for Moon photometry Observation correction factor) method could compensate the underestimated extraterrestrial lunar irradiances of ROLO model for about 6.76%–9.78%, and thus greatly improve the calculation accuracy of nighttime AOD. The day/night coherence transition test has demonstrated that we would obtain a good diurnal variation of AODs at Lanzhou after RCF correction. The overall averages of nocturnal AOD440nm differences between Cimel software and ROLO model and SMGF method are 0.064 ± 0.024 and 0.052 ± 0.022, respectively, while the corresponding difference of RCF is less than 0.021 ± 0.014 for all wavelengths, falling within uncertainty range of AERONET AOD products (∼±0.02). The diurnal variations of AODs determined from RCF method agree well with synchronous results of DIAL Lidar, with total mean AOD532nm differences of 0.038 ± 0.024 and 0.023 ± 0.017 in daytime and nighttime, respectively. The spectral AODs computed from RCF method are well consistent with Cimel software, although there are some discrepancies under low AOD cases (AOD440nm < 0.30), and the overall average of AOD440nm differences are less than −0.0053 ± 0.002 and −0.0185 ± 0.013 in daytime and nighttime, respectively. Our results confirmed that the CE318-T photometer can be reasonably calculated nighttime AOD and Ångström exponent (AE440–870nm) at urban Lanzhou by using three independent methods, although the former two need to be greatly improved under low moon's illumination. The RCF method was proved to reliably calculate nocturnal AOD from moonlight irradiance, which didn't rely on MPA. A more accurate lunar irradiance model needs to be developed to improve the underestimation of current ROLO model. Long-term climatological information of nocturnal AOD is crucial for comprehensively characterizing the diurnal variations of aerosol optical properties and atmospheric boundary layer structure during the winter at typical northern city of China, which deserves to be further investigated in the future.

Abstract

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is a crucial indicator reflecting the region of the atmosphere characterized by continuous turbulence. Here, we use radiosonde and surface meteorological observations (4–7 times per day, year-round measurements) during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition to derive the PBLH (PBLH MOSAiC ), and further evaluate the PBLH from the ERA5 reanalysis (PBLH ERA5 ). Comparisons between PBLH MOSAiC and PBLH ERA5 from different perspectives reveal that: (a) The overestimation of PBLH ERA5 when the sea ice concentration is >90% is significant with the centered root mean squared error reaching up to 201 m; (b) The difference between the two products is notably pronounced in cold seasons, while it is comparatively diminished in warm seasons; (c) In neutral boundary layers, differences in PBLH ERA5 are larger compared with stable and convective boundary layers. In addition, the analysis of error sources indicates that the bias of PBLH ERA5 is sensitive to the bias of vertical thermal structure and wind speed profiles in ERA5 data sets in all conditions. Finally, we find a Random Forest model effectively reduces the bias of PBLH ERA5 with the index of agreement reaching up to 0.71 in the test data set, while a multiple linear regression demonstrates comparable performance to the Random Forest model.

Abstract

Bright basal reflections from the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding (MARSIS) have been proposed to be consistent with permittivities characteristic of a wet material beneath the south polar layered deposits (SPLD). The characterization of a recently formed impact crater highlight the existence of a several meters thick ice-poor layer associated to a unit blanketing a large portion of the SPLD. We revise the radar propagation model used to invert the basal permittivity by including a surficial thin layer. We find that the inverted basal permittivity is highly sensitive to the properties of such a layer, with solutions ranging from common dry rocks to an unambiguously wet base. We advocate toward a better characterization of the surficial cover to assess the wet or dry nature for the base, and possibly reconcile most of the literature on the topic.