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Bridging the Gap: Transforming Reliable Climate Data into Climate Policy

Fri, 01/16/2026 - 13:42
Editors’ Vox is a blog from AGU’s Publications Department.

Advancing our understanding of climate change and its impacts requires a multidisciplinary effort to generate, evaluate, and integrate reliable climate records at appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Reliable and traceable climate observations are essential for evidence-based climate governance.

Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) serve as the foundation for monitoring the Earth system. For instance, ECVs such as the Earth Radiation Budget and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) provide critical information on energy exchanges within the Earth system, underpinning assessments of long-term variability and anthropogenic influences.

These variables are estimated from satellites, ground networks, and models, producing vast datasets whose usefulness depends not on size, but on quality, consistency, and careful integration. As measurement coverage is uneven, instruments differ in calibration, and techniques can yield conflicting results. Thus, transforming raw data into reliable information requires rigorous quality control and collaboration across scientific and technical disciplines.

International frameworks such as the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) set standards for measurement, documentation, uncertainty reporting, and open data sharing. These systems promote traceability and reliability—ensuring the ability to track how each data point was produced and processed—so that scientists can reproduce analyses and policymakers can trust the results. In addition, emerging approaches, including physics-informed Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL), enable enhanced detection of patterns, anomaly identification, and quality control in large, heterogeneous datasets. Thereby they are strengthening the role of ECVs in monitoring system integrity.

Moreover, geodetic observations of sea-level rise, cryospheric changes, and solid Earth deformation illustrate the key role of multidisciplinary ECV analysis. By providing a holistic understanding of environmental change, these data streams are foundational for developing next-generation predictive tools, including Earth’s Digital Twin, to monitor global and local dynamics.

In this context, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) plays a key role by fostering global collaboration to develop interdisciplinary ECVs that are traceable and reliable. GCOS supports efforts to advance climate science by ensuring high-quality data, which is vital for informed climate action and adaptive policy development. Through innovation and interdisciplinary approaches, this framework enables more effective responses to the challenges posed by climate change.

This special collection serves as a venue for contributions that shed light on the role of continuous monitoring of ECVs, coupled with rigorous quality assurance, as a foundation for policy decisions, ultimately bridging the gap between technical observation and actionable climate governance. We especially welcome novel research that advances the methodologies required to demonstrate how robust, traceable data can empower society to build resilience against a changing climate. Contributions will include (but not be limited to) research into: best practices in observation, collection, and processing and curation of data. It can also include physics-informed machine and deep learning methods to identify relationships and feedback loops between atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, as well as evidence-based policies and remediation measures.

This is a joint special collection between Earth and Space Science, JGR: Machine and Computation, and Earth’s Future. Manuscripts can be submitted to any of these journals depending on their fit with each journal aims and scope. Submissions are now open and welcome until 7 March 2027.

—Jean-Philippe Montillet (Jean-Philippe.Montillet@pmodwrc.ch, 0000-0001-7439-7862), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center, Switzerland; Graziella Caprarelli (Graziella.Caprarelli@usq.edu.au, 0000-0001-9578-3228), University of Southern Queensland, Australia;  Gaël Kermarrec (0000-0001-5986-5269), Leibniz Universitat Hannover, Germany; CK Shum (0000-0001-9378-4067), Ohio State University, United States; Ehsan Forootan (0000-0003-3055-041X), Aalborg University, Denmark; Jan Sedlacek (0000-0002-6742-9130), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center, Switzerland; Elizabeth Weatherhead (0000-0002-9252-4228), University of Colorado at Boulder, United States; Orhan Akyilmaz (0000-0002-8499-2654), Istanbul Technical University, Turkey; Wolfgang Finsterle (0000-0002-6672-7523), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center, Switzerland; Yu Zhang, Ohio University, United States; Enrico Camporeale (0000-0002-7862-6383), University of Colorado Boulder, United States; and Kelly K. Caylor (0000-0002-6466-6448), University of California, Santa Barbara, United States

Citation: Montillet, J-P., G. Caprarelli, G. Kermarrec, CK. Shum, E. Forootan, J. Sedlacek, E. Weatherhead, O. Akyilmaz, W. Finsterle, Y. Zhang, E. Camporeale, and K. K. Caylor (2026), Bridging the gap: transforming reliable climate data into climate policy, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO265001. Published on 16 January 2026. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The evolving landslide threat at Farwell Canyon on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia

Fri, 01/16/2026 - 08:24

There are concerns about the potential impact of an incipient landslide at Farwell Canyon on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia, Canada.

On 30 July 2024, a large landslide occurred on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia, Canada, blocking the flow. The scale of the landslide was massive – on the BC website about the event, it is estimated that the landslide was about 1,000 metres in length, 600 metres in width, and roughly 30 metres deep. There is a good Youtube video with footage of the landslide:-

And this image, from the BC Government, captures the landslide itself:-

The 30 July 2024 landslide on the Chilcotin River in Canada. Image from the BC Government.

The landslide breached and the lake drained on 5 August 2024.

In the aftermath of that landslide, geotechnical monitoring was established for the riverbanks, which has identified another site on the Chilcotin River that appears to be vulnerable to a landslide. A tension crack has developed at a site known as Snhaxalaus, located just downstream of the the Farwell Canyon Bridge (the bridge is at [51.82790, -122.56296].

The Tŝilhqot’in National Government has published this image of the site:-

The site of the incipient landslide near to Farwell Canyon Bridge on the Chilcotin River in Canada. Image from the Tŝilhqot’in National Government.

The tension crack, and the large displacements, are clearly evident.

The major concern at this site is the potential impact on Chilko salmon. Following 2024 landslide, an Emergency Salmon Task Force was established, led by the Tŝilhqot’in National Government but also working with the Williams Lake First Nation. To manage the threat posed by the incipient landslide on the Farwell Canyon, the Task Force is planning to undertake “a proactive slope stabilization plan that includes manual scaling and targeted trim blasting”, which seems like a reasonable approach.

However, national and/or provincial funding is not in place to undertake this work ahead of the salmon migration later this year, so the Tŝilhqot’in National Government is planning to fund the work itself. The costs are estimated to be in the range of CAN$2.5M – $3M. Tŝilhqot’in National Government is concerned that a failure at this site ahead of the salmon migration could cause devastating damage to the salmon populations on the Fraser River.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Detecting Remagnetization with Quantum Diamond Microscopy

Thu, 01/15/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Magnetic mineral populations that recorded the Earth’s magnetic field during distinct stages of rock formation are often juxtaposed on micrometer-to-millimeter scales. This poses significant challenges for extracting reliable paleomagnetic information because standard methods —which measure the bulk magnetic moment of whole samples— cannot distinguish between magnetic minerals with overlapping demagnetization spectra.

The recently developed Quantum Diamond Microscope (QDM) yield micrometer-scale magnetization images of rock samples, which allow to extract individual magnetization contributions from different structures. Qi et al. [2025] demonstrate the advantage of this new approach with an example from the Troodos ophiolite, Cyprus. QDM measurements of a weakly and a strongly magnetized sample reveal magnetized structures from three distinct serpentinization episodes, from oldest to youngest: ridge-axis serpentinization (strongly magnetized sample, 90-92 Ma), recrystallization zones from mantle wedge serpentinization during subduction (weakly magnetized sample, 5.3-2.6 Ma), and meteoric-water serpentinization following surface exposure (weakly magnetized sample, <2.6 Ma). These episodes are also documented by oxygen isotope measurements indicating distinct alteration temperatures. The QDM technique can be applied to a variety of terrestrial rocks and meteorites with complex magnetization patterns which cannot be disentangled with traditional bulk measurements.

Quantum diamond microscope image of the magnetic field produced by the natural magnetization of minerals inside a rock sample from the Artemis serpentinite diapir, in its untreated from (a) and after demagnetizing the less stable magnetization components with an alternating field (b). Corresponding details from a recrystallization zone formed during subduction (5.3 to 2.6 million years ago) and from a microfracture formed during the latest stage of meteoric water serpentinization, after the rock was emplaced (<2.6 million years ago) are shown in (d, f) and (c, e), respectively. The zoomed details in (h, j) and (g, i) reveal the association between magnetite grains (light-gray structures) and magnetic signals (blue-red hues) in different microstructures. (k-n) Discrete field patterns produced by a single magnetic source, consisting of pairs of positive (red) and negative (blue) anomalies have been fitted with a magnetic dipole model, yielding the magnetization vector orientations shown in the equal area plots with geographical coordinates. Stars show the mean directions for each zone, together with their 95% confidence ellipses. Credit: Qi et al. [2025], Figure 5

Citation: Qi, L., Muxworthy, A. R., Baker, E. B., Cao, X., Allerton, S., Bryson, J. F. J., & Zhang, Y. (2025). Quantifying serpentinization-driven remagnetization from ridge axis to subduction zone using quantum diamond microscopy. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130, e2025JB031606. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031606

—Ramon Egli, Associate Editor, JGR: Solid Earth

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The State of the Science 1 Year On: Climate Change and Energy

Thu, 01/15/2026 - 13:59
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This article is Part 2 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU.

The State of the Science 1 Year On

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump worked across agencies to roll back practical and political momentum to address the climate crisis.

Experts say the array of administration policies supporting the fossil fuel industry could halve U.S. progress on reducing carbon emissions, and actions such as withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement are projected to erase at least 0.1°C (0.18°F) of international efforts to limit warming by 2100.

Rolling Back Climate Policy

Trump’s interagency effort to roll back critical climate policies began immediately. An executive order (EO) signed on the first day of Trump’s second term titled “Unleashing American Energy” ordered additional oil and gas exploration, accelerated permitting for such drilling, eliminated credits and regulations favoring electric vehicles, and revoked 12 climate- and energy-related EOs issued by the administration of President Joe Biden.

In March, the EPA indicated it would move to reconsider the 2009 Endangerment Finding, which states that greenhouse gases “threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations.” The Endangerment Finding underpins the federal government’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants, oil and gas facilities, and factories.

On 29 July, the EPA formally proposed to rescind the finding, and the Department of Energy (DOE) published a report finding that carbon dioxide–induced warming “appears to be less damaging economically than commonly believed,” that U.S. policy actions have “undetectably small direct impacts on the global climate,” and that claims of increased frequency or intensity of storms are “not supported” by historical data.

In September, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted their own review, stating that “EPA’s 2009 finding that the human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases threaten human health and welfare was accurate” and is “beyond scientific dispute.” In a letter to the National Academies, House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) dismissed the review as a “blatant partisan act to undermine the Trump Administration.”

In August, the American Meteorological Society published a report identifying “five foundational flaws” in the DOE report that each place the report “at odds with scientific principles and practices.”

In addition to reconsidering the Endangerment Finding, the Trump administration immediately began to dismantle the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a $27 billion lending program meant to spur private investment in clean energy. In March, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin terminated $20 billion of this funding. Numerous lawsuits followed, but in July, Trump rescinded all funding for the program.

In February, Congress repealed a Biden era rule implementing a federal tax on methane pollution, which would have been the United States’ first tax on greenhouse gases. In June, the administration also proposed to rescind all greenhouse gas emissions standards for coal-, oil-, and gas-fired power plants.

The One Big Beautiful Bill, the omnibus spending bill that became law on 4 July, removes or rapidly phases out most clean energy, electric vehicle, and clean manufacturing tax credits introduced by Biden’s key climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act. While reducing support for clean energy projects, the law also grants $40 billion in new subsidies and tax credits to the fossil fuel industry through 2035, according to a report from Oil Change International, an anti–fossil fuel advocacy group.

In total, the One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to cut the development of new clean-power-generating capacity by up to 59% through 2035, according to a report by the Rhodium Group. An analysis by Carbon Brief and Princeton University found the passage of the law will set the United States up to drop emissions to 3% below current levels by 2030 rather than the 40% mandated by the Paris Agreement.

In November, the EPA announced it would delay methane emissions reduction requirements set by the Biden administration, giving oil and gas companies until January 2027 to comply. In December, the White House and Department of Transportation announced a proposal to revoke vehicle fuel efficiency standards that were tightened in 2024. The administration is expected to finalize this proposal in 2026.

Boosting Fossil Fuels, Obstructing Renewables

Trump’s declaration of a “national energy emergency” gave federal agency heads authority to grant emergency approvals to expedite the completion of energy projects.

“We’re going to drill, baby, drill,” Trump said after being sworn in. That day, Trump issued an executive order (EO) to resume processing permit applications for new liquefied natural gas projects, which had been halted under Biden.

“It is the policy of the United States that coal is essential to our national and economic security.”

In an April EO seeking to revive the “beautiful clean coal industry,” the Trump administration directed agencies to identify possible new coal resources on federal lands. The order also laid out plans to identify and revise existing regulations and policies that might lead the country away from coal power or coal production. “It is the policy of the United States that coal is essential to our national and economic security,” the EO states.

Also in April, the Department of the Interior said it intended to fast-track approvals for coal, gas, oil, and mineral projects. The administration opened up millions of acres of federal land to oil and gas companies and additional millions of acres to potential coal mining projects. In September, the DOE announced it would invest $625 million to retrofit and modernize aging coal power plants, followed by an additional $100 million in federal funding for similar projects. In May, the administration ordered a coal power plant in Michigan to abandon its plans to shut down, citing a “shortage of electric energy” in the Midwest. In December, it also ordered two coal plants in Indiana, two in Colorado, and one in Washington to remain open.

Among the federal land opened to oil drilling is the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, an iconic wilderness area in northern Alaska. In October, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced the federal government would open 1.56 million acres (631,000 hectares) of the refuge to oil and gas leasing, reversing a Biden moratorium on drilling activity there.

In November, the administration announced it planned to open almost 1.3 billion additional acres (526 million hectares) of U.S. coastal waters to new oil and gas drilling. The One Big Beautiful Bill mandated at least 36 oil and gas lease sales in federal waters.

“An offshore lease issued next year could keep pumping carbon into the atmosphere for the next 40 years,” Rebecca Loomis, an attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told The New York Times.

Renewable energy projects have mostly received the opposite treatment, as federal agencies made a concerted effort to halt existing solar and wind energy projects and slow the permitting and approval process for new ones. Trump took particular aim at wind energy: An EO on the first day of his term withdrew all new offshore wind energy lease opportunities and suggested the possibility of terminating or amending existing leases. A coalition of state attorneys sued the administration, saying Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally make such mandates. In December, a federal judge wrote that the EO violated federal law.

“This arbitrary and unnecessary directive threatens the loss of thousands of good-paying jobs and billions in investments, and it is delaying our transition away from the fossil fuels that harm our health and our planet,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said of the EO.

Solar projects have suffered, too. The Trump administration slowed development on a solar project in Nevada that, if built, would be one of the world’s largest. In October, the EPA canceled $7 billion in grants for a popular clean energy program, Solar for All, meant to help low- and moderate-income households install solar.

Oil and gas permitting, but not renewable energy permitting, continued during the 44-day government shutdown this fall, as the Trump administration approved more than 470 permits to drill on public land. After the January 2026 military action in Venezuela, President Trump announced the country “will be turning over” 30-50 million barrels of oil and that the federal government would maintain control over Venezuela’s oil industry.

Hindering Climate Science

As the Trump administration hindered clean energy projects and boosted fossil fuels, it also targeted climate science. In February, Trump prohibited federal scientists from traveling to take part in a planning meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Federal scientists were reportedly told to stop work on all IPCC-related activities, though some nonfederal U.S. scientists are still involved.

In April, the administration dismissed all scientists working on the United States’ own National Climate Assessment (NCA). In July, a spokeswoman for NASA told The New York Times that NASA would no longer host previous NCAs online. AGU and the American Meteorological Society have responded by creating a special collection on climate change to help catalyze and advance synthesis science to inform our understanding of risks and solutions for U.S. climate research and assessments. In December, the Trump administration asked a group of scientists known for their climate skepticism—the same group that authored the DOE report undermining the 2009 Endangerment Finding—to write the next installment of the NCA.

Additionally, many programs and offices collecting and analyzing climate data were shuttered this year because budgets were cut and staff were fired, creating a widening climate data void. In April, for example, the EPA failed for the first time to meet the obligations of a 1992 treaty setting greenhouse gas reporting requirements for wealthy countries. The Environmental Defense Fund released the data after filing a Freedom of Information Act request. The same month, political appointees told EPA staff that they planned to virtually eliminate the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which requires the country’s largest industrial sites to report their emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

“The public has a right to know how much climate pollution is being emitted.”

“The public has a right to know how much climate pollution is being emitted,” Vickie Patton, an attorney at the Environmental Defense Fund, told The New York Times. “The attack on the data, the attack on the science, is irresponsible.”

Pieces of signature energy reports from the Energy Information Administration, a data-tracking arm of the Department of Energy, were removed, while the publication of its International Energy Outlook for 2025 was scrapped.

NOAA, once identified as “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry,” has come under intense scrutiny. Under the Trump administration, the agency ended support for key data products at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, retired its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters data product (though the nonprofit Climate Central is bringing it back to life), suspended work on a massive dataset meant to predict extreme rainfall, and consolidated climate data hosted on Climate.gov on another NOAA domain. The administration also canceled its lease for NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory in Hilo, Hawaii, an important site for scientists tracking carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Trump proposed cutting virtually all funding for climate research at NOAA, though Congress is considering spending bills that include much more modest cuts. Congress is also considering a bill that would ensure the uninterrupted storage of NOAA datasets indefinitely.

NASA’s climate programs suffered, too: This spring, the Trump administration began the process of shrinking the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which maintains critical climate data records. And over the summer, the administration directed NASA employees to draw up plans to end satellite missions designed to monitor carbon dioxide emissions. Acting Administrator Sean Duffy made clear the agency will deprioritize all climate science.

The Department of the Interior cut funding to a third of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Climate Adaptation Science Centers, which funds projects aimed to help people, wildlife, land, and water adapt to local effects of climate change. This includes mapping risks of wildfire and flooding, maintaining infrastructure such as storm drains, and assessing fish and wildlife populations for both hunting and conservation.

The Trump administration also axed funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, a decades-old congressionally mandated interagency climate research program. And in November, a new organizational plan for the Energy Department no longer showed various offices that had overseen clean energy technology development.

More than 100 National Science Foundation (NSF) grants for climate-related science have been canceled as well. In December, the Trump administration announced that it would dismantle the NSF-funded National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), one of the world’s leading climate and Earth science laboratories.

The administration also systematically removed mentions of climate change and related language from agency websites and directed the Department of Energy not to use certain language, including the words “green” and “decarbonization.” The EPA also erased references linking human activities to climate change from sections of its website.

And while geoengineering has not been a priority of the Trump administration, Rep. Marjorie Tayler Greene (R-GA) introduced the Clear Skies Act in July, which would impose $100,000 fines and potential jail time for anyone conducting “weather modification” activities.

Stalling Global Progress

The Trump administration’s approach to climate and energy policy has reverberated globally. The administration’s decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement (to take effect in January 2026) will set global projected emissions back 0.1°C (0.18°F) by 2100, according to a United Nations report.

The same EO that withdraws the United States from the Paris Agreement also directs the administration to revoke contributions to international climate finance funds. This directive means the global climate finance goal agreed upon at COP29 (the 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change) will be much more difficult to meet. In March, the administration also pulled the United States out of the Board of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, a U.N. climate damage fund created at COP28 dedicated to helping finance developing countries’ climate adaptation efforts. The same month, the United States withdrew from the Just Energy Transition Partnership, an international collaboration formed at COP26 meant to help developing countries implement clean energy.

The Trump administration did not attend COP30 in Belém, Brazil, a move that other leaders admonished. “Mr. Trump is against humankind,” said Colombian President Gustavo Petro. It was the first time in COP history that the United States did not send a delegation.

In January 2026, the White House issued an EO ordering the withdrawal of the United States from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, a 1992 treaty that set the legal framework for international negotiations on climate change. According to the terms of the treaty, the formal withdrawal will occur one year after the government submits paperwork to the U.N., after which the United States will be the only country not engaged in the global agreement. The EO also ordered the withdrawal of the United States from the IPCC.

At an International Energy Agency meeting held in London in April, Trump administration staff members opposed policies to regulate fossil fuels. In September, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright traveled to Italy to attend the world’s largest natural gas conference. While in Europe, Wright urged European governments to ditch methane regulations, called net-zero goals “a colossal train wreck,” and downplayed the risks of climate change. “It’s turned out that not only does climate change not look to be an urgent threat…but doing something about it has proven remarkably difficult,” Wright told reporters in Brussels.

The Trump administration also attempted to use economic levers to encourage other nations to walk back their climate goals. In July, for instance, the administration agreed to reduce some tariffs on the European Union (EU) if the EU purchased $750 billion in American oil and gas. In December, the Trump administration asked the EU to exempt US oil and gas companies that sell oil and gas to Europe from European methane regulations.

Next Steps

Despite criticism of the DOE report and widespread opposition to the reconsideration of the rule—even Tesla wants to preserve it—the EPA is expected to move forward with revoking the Endangerment Finding in early 2026. The decision is expected to face serious legal challenges, and the Trump administration faces an ongoing lawsuit from the Environmental Defense Fund and the Union of Concerned Scientists over the controversial DOE report. Final repeals of federal vehicle fuel economy standards and power plant emissions limits are also expected in early 2026.

The future of climate programs like the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, Solar for All, electric vehicle infrastructure funds, and other climate-related grants likely lies in the courts, not the ballot box. Environmental groups and other stakeholders have filed multiple lawsuits challenging these actions, and they are still proceeding through the legal system. A coalition of states has even sued Trump and his administration over the president’s initial declaration of a “national energy emergency.”

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

American Geophysical Union (2025), Science societies take action after NCA authors’ dismissal this week, 2 May, news.agu.org/press-release/agu-and-ams-join-forces-on-special-collection-to-maintain-momentum-of-research-supporting-the-u-s-national-climate-assessment/.

American Meteorological Society (2025), The practice and assessment of science: Five foundational flaws in the Department of Energy’s 2025 climate report, 27 Aug., www.ametsoc.org/ams/about-ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force/the-practice-and-assessment-of-science-five-foundational-flaws-in-the-department-of-energys-2025-climate-report/.

Carbon Brief (2025), Chart: Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ blows US emissions goal by 7bn tonnes, 4 July, www.carbonbrief.org/chart-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-blows-us-emissions-goal-by-7bn-tonnes/.

Cartier, K. M. S. (2025), NASA planning for unauthorized shutdown of carbon monitoring satellites, Eos, 5 Aug., eos.org/research-and-developments/nasa-planning-for-unauthorized-shutdown-of-carbon-monitoring-satellites.

Colman, Z. (2025), Energy Dept. adds ‘climate change’ and ‘emissions’ to banned words list, Politico, 28 Sept., www.politico.com/news/2025/09/28/energy-department-climate-change-emissions-banned-words-00583649.

Chemnick, J. (2025), Trump gutted climate rules in 2025. He could make it permanent in 2026. E&E News, 17 Dec., www.eenews.net/articles/trump-gutted-climate-rules-in-2025-he-could-make-it-permanent-in-2026/.

Dieckman, E. (2025), Executive order seeks to revive “America’s Beautiful, Clean Coal Industry,” Eos, 9 Apr., eos.org/research-and-developments/executive-order-seeks-to-revive-americas-beautiful-clean-coal-industry.

Dzomback, R. (2025), NASA website will not provide previous National Climate Reports, New York Times, 14 July, www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/climate/nasa-website-climate-report.html.

Friedman, L. (2025), Interior Department to fast-track oil, gas and mining projects, New York Times, 23 Apr., www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/climate/interior-department-gas-and-mining-projects.html.

Janis, B., and C. Richards (2025), Who will fill the climate-data void left by the Trump administration?, Nature, 14 Nov., https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-03532-4.

Perez, N., and R. Waldholz (2025), Trump is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement (again), reversing U.S. climate policy, NPR, 21 Jan., www.npr.org/2025/01/21/nx-s1-5266207/trump-paris-agreement-biden-climate-change.

U.S. Department of Energy (2025), A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, Climate Working Group, Washington, D.C., www.energy.gov/topics/climate.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2025), Proposed rule: Reconsideration of 2009 Endangerment Finding and greenhouse gas vehicle standards, 22 Aug., www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/proposed-rule-reconsideration-2009-endangerment-finding.

van Deelen, G. (2025), NOAA halts maintenance of key Arctic data at National Snow and Ice Data Center, Eos, 8 May, eos.org/research-and-developments/noaa-halts-maintenance-of-key-arctic-data-at-national-snow-and-ice-data-center.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Proposed NOAA budget calls for $0 for climate research, Eos, 2 July, eos.org/research-and-developments/proposed-noaa-budget-calls-for-0-for-climate-research.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Public speaks out against EPA plan to rescind Endangerment Finding, Eos, 25 Aug., eos.org/research-and-developments/public-speaks-out-against-epa-plan-to-rescind-endangerment-finding.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Trump proposes weakening fuel economy rules for vehicles, Eos, 3 Dec., eos.org/research-and-developments/trump-proposes-to-weaken-fuel-economy-rules-for-vehicles.

Waldman, S. (2025), It’s the gold standard of US climate research. Contratians could write the next one., E&E News, 22 Dec., www.eenews.net/articles/its-the-gold-standard-of-us-climate-research-contrarians-could-write-the-next-one/.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Climate change and energy, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260002. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The State of the Science 1 Year On: Academia and Research

Thu, 01/15/2026 - 13:59
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Part 5 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU

The State of the Science 1 Year On Overview

In its first year, the second administration of President Donald Trump has taken numerous actions, in the form of both sweeping policy initiatives and directives targeted at specific groups or institutions, to reshape academia and higher education. Many have affected academic scientists’ funding and ability to pursue their research across an array of disciplines; others have presented new challenges and burdens for current and aspiring students.

These actions have not gone unchallenged. Insiders and observers have called out threats to academic freedom and autonomy, and some schools, states, professional organizations, and individuals have pushed back on campuses and in the courts. Others have negotiated with the administration in their attempts to navigate the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. higher education.

Funding Cuts Hit Research Hard

Among the highest-profile actions of the Trump administration aimed at academia have been its attempts to cancel or claw back billions of dollars in federal funding awarded to specific universities, including grants for scientific and medical research. The administration has also raised taxes on wealthy universities and, at times, threatened the tax-exempt status of some (most notably Harvard University) as punishments for alleged wrongdoings or ideological differences. These schools have responded in different ways to try to preserve their funding.

When the administration announced in March that it would review federal contracts and grants with Harvard—and soon thereafter demanded a litany of changes to the school’s hiring, admissions, and operations policies to “maintain Harvard’s financial relationship with the federal government”—Harvard rejected the demands, with university president Alan Garber saying the school would not “surrender its independence.” The administration countered by freezing more than $2 billion in grants. Harvard then sued, arguing the administration was improperly overreaching with its funding cuts.

Most other universities threatened with funding pullbacks have at least partially acceded to administration demands to reinstate federal research money. Columbia University agreed in July to pay a $200 million fine and change hiring and admissions practices to restore $400 million in funding. Brown University similarly made a deal to preserve more than $500 million by agreeing to make administrative policy changes and to put $50 million toward state workforce programs.

Cornell University and Northwestern University later struck agreements too.

Federal judges have handed some victories to schools, victories that may be temporary if rulings are appealed. In response to lawsuits filed by faculty groups at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), for example, a judge issued several orders to block a $1.2 billion fine and restore hundreds of grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and National Institutes of Health (NIH). And in September, Harvard prevailed in its suit against the government.

The turmoil, uncertainty, and interruptions from monthslong conflicts with the administration have slowed or stalled scientific research projects on campuses.

Even with court victories and negotiated deals reinstating funding, the turmoil, uncertainty, and interruptions from monthslong—and in some cases ongoing—conflicts with the administration have slowed or stalled scientific research projects on campuses. They have also led numerous universities and colleges to cut spending through hiring freezes and layoffs.

Academic science has been under pressure not only through the administration’s targeting of universities directly but also through its efforts to remake the federal grantmaking process, reduce the amounts and types of external research funded, and reduce budget appropriations for scientific research by more than 20% through large-scale cutbacks and reorganizations in federal science agencies. Unsurprisingly, the administration’s actions are having ripple effects for higher education, business (among companies who supply scientific products, for instance), and public health.

Substantial changes at NSF, which provides roughly a quarter of federal funds for basic research at colleges and universities, began almost immediately upon Trump’s return to office. Expert grant review panels were canceled in late January. By early February, staffers were reviewing keywords in thousands of existing projects to screen for any language that might conflict with early executive orders related to the recognition of genders and curtailing diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts. Grant pauses and holdups continued through spring as reviews expanded to target awards for research on climate change, environmental and social justice, and misinformation. In May, NSF announced plans to abolish dozens of divisions. And in December, the administration said it would dismantle the NSF-sponsored National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The decision elicited strong criticism—and support for NCAR—from numerous scientists, including many attending AGU’s Annual Meeting when the announcement was made.

Despite the upheaval, NSF still provided more than $8 billion in funding in fiscal year (FY) 2025, according to an analysis by Science. Yet the many changes in grant reviews and awards slowed the process considerably and created confusion both within the agency and among researchers who depend on it. The changes also led to the termination of thousands of existing grants as well as a 20% reduction in the number of new grants awarded.

Other agencies experienced upheavals in funding, grantmaking, and staffing. At NOAA, these upheavals included the proposal to eliminate the agency’s primary research arm (the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) as well as funding for climate research facilities and grants. Further, multiple key datasets and data products used by scientists, decisionmakers, and companies—such as the Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters product and the Sea Ice Index (maintained by the National Snow and Ice Data Center)—have been discontinued or lost support. These losses prompted grassroots efforts by scientists and institutions both domestically and internationally, as well as a push in Congress, to preserve imperiled datasets.

At NASA, concerns over near-term funding and policy directions led to delayed calls for grant requests, a decrease in grants awarded, substantial staff cuts, and facility closures. Uncertainties about the status of ongoing and future science missions have also left the availability of mission datasets up in the air.

Meanwhile, the Department of Energy (DOE), the country’s single biggest funding agency for physical science, is collapsing six scientific panels into a single Office of Science Advisory Committee. The new committee will, according to an agency statement, still include “leaders from academia, industry, and National Laboratories,” but the news left some scientists concerned about losing important avenues of input to the agency and the possibility that political appointees may have greater say over DOE science.

At the EPA and NIH, too, significant reductions in force, uncertainty stemming from proposals to end data collection (e.g., through EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program), and changes and cutbacks in grantmaking are affecting research inside and outside these agencies. EPA and NIH each ended hundreds of awards, most supporting work on administration-targeted topics such as environmental justice, climate, DEI, and transgender health.

However, federal judges halted some grant terminations, and NIH agreed to review grant proposals that were previously denied, withdrawn, or frozen because of administration directives.

To go along with the thousands of individual research projects lost or limited by terminated grants, cuts at federal agencies have also hit projects involving and serving scientists across sectors. Support has been pulled for, among other projects, the Cosmic Microwave Background Stage 4, which would have built new radio telescopes to detect clues about the origins of the universe, as well as the country’s only icebreaker supporting Antarctic research.

And in April, the government announced it was canceling funding for and releasing scientists involved in producing the next National Climate Assessment (NCA), due to be released in 2028. Published quadrennially through the U.S. Global Change Research Program (which the administration also ended), the previous five NCAs represented the consensus, science-based evaluation of how climate change is and will continue affecting the country’s environment, economy, and people. In response to the cancellation, AGU and the American Meteorological Society announced they were partnering to create a special research collection “to sustain the momentum of the sixth National Climate Assessment almost a year into the process.”

New Obstacles for Students

A signature goal of Trump’s second administration—and one that was aggressively advanced during its first year—is to dismantle the Department of Education (ED) as much as possible.

In mid-February, Linda McMahon, during her confirmation hearing to become secretary of education, signaled how the administration would aim to relocate ED programs to other departments. That announcement came on the heels of hundreds of millions of dollars in cuts to an ED office tracking student progress and Trump saying he wanted McMahon to “put herself out of a job.” In March, an executive order directed McMahon to “facilitate the closure” of ED.

Authority to abolish the department ultimately rests with Congress, but the administration has nonetheless been able to push its agenda forward through dramatic cuts and reorganizations. It reshaped department advisory boards, for example, such as those focused on education science and the accreditation of higher education institutions. The administration also ended funding to grant programs designated specifically for minority-serving institutions and selectively terminated or rejected grants to schools that mentioned DEI in their grant applications.

In November, ED said it would move several offices, including the Office of Postsecondary Education, to the Department of Labor (DOL). Critics argued that moving programs does little to clear red tape and instead imperils services because DOL is not equipped to run them.

Disruptions to federal education funding are not limited to ED. After NSF gave out far fewer awards than usual through its Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) in the spring, for example, its months-delayed release of guidance for the next round of awards caused substantial confusion among would-be applicants. When the GRFP guidance was released in September, students learned they had less time than usual to complete applications and that second-year Ph.D. students were no longer eligible to apply.

The major shift in GRFP policy left thousands of budding scientists—some of whom purposefully waited until their second year of graduate school to apply to improve their chances of success—without an opportunity to even be considered. Earlier in the year, funding uncertainties at NSF also frustrated undergraduates as the agency reduced support to schools through its Research Experiences for Undergraduates program.

The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law in July, as well as subsequent decisions made significant changes to student loan and loan forgiveness plans, including borrowing maximums, the types and lengths of loan repayment plans available, and student eligibility for Pell Grants. And even before July, administration moves to slow or stop the application process for loan forgiveness under certain conditions led to new confusion for borrowers and drew a lawsuit from the American Federation of Teachers, which resulted in a settlement to resume processing loan forgiveness applications.

International students already in the United States or looking to apply have found themselves in limbo as well because of the administration’s approaches to immigration, research security, and other concerns. Early in the year, alongside incidents of international students being arrested and detained, the administration revoked visas for more than 1,500 students. These actions sowed confusion and fear among the nation’s international student body, which numbers more than 1 million. International students account for only about 6% of enrollment in U.S. colleges but make up the majority in many graduate science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields.

Even after restoring most of the canceled visas in April, the administration suggested it would continue pursuing revocations. Indeed, just a month later it announced it would temporarily stop scheduling interviews for new student visas and would start revoking visas for Chinese students studying in “critical fields” out of concern that these students’ access to U.S. training and funding were benefiting China’s government.

These measures appear to have had a chilling effect on the interest or ability of students from abroad to study in the United States. International student applications dropped 9% compared to the prior year, according to the Institute of International Education, and the size of the international student body in graduate programs dropped by 12%.

The new obstacles for both domestic and international students, combined with lost funding and research support, contributed to decisions by graduate programs at many schools to scale back or altogether forgo admissions of new students. “If this keeps up,” one scientist told Nature, “it would be really devastating for the field, because this is where the next generation of experts comes from.”

Fears for Academic Freedom

Many of the Trump administration’s actions regarding higher education and academic research have been aimed at pressuring the administrators and faculty to reshape their schools’ curricula and programming.

Many of the Trump administration’s actions regarding higher education and academic research have been aimed at pressuring administrators and faculty to reshape their schools’ curricula and programming. Critics saw these actions as open threats to academic freedom.

In May, Trump issued an executive order on “Restoring Gold Standard Science.” It calls out a supposed crisis of public confidence in science amid perceived misuses of data and purportedly seeks to bolster research that is reproducible and transparent. Although these are widely accepted qualities of good science, critics argued the order would only undermine confidence in science while opening the door to greater administration control over federally funded research.

In August, Trump issued another, more focused executive order on “Improving Oversight of Federal Grantmaking,” which stipulates that senior political appointees review and approve new funding opportunities and grant applications.

When the president threatened to punish university accrediting organizations for focusing on DEI-related criteria, the AAUP accused the administration of weaponizing the accreditation process and called it “another attempt to dictate what is taught, learned, said and done by college students and instructors.”

Trump’s campaign to reshape universities reached a crescendo in early October when it sent letters to nine schools asking them to sign a “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education.”

Trump’s 2025 campaign to reshape universities reached a crescendo in early October when it sent letters to nine schools asking them to sign a “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” in exchange for “multiple positive benefits.” The compact comprised a long list of administration goals, such as banning consideration of demographics in admissions, aid, and hiring decisions; ending “institutional units that purposefully punish, belittle, and even spark violence against conservative ideas”; and recognizing strict definitions of gender. The compact’s touted benefits included greater access to funding, higher payments for overhead costs, and administration acknowledgment that schools “are complying with civil rights law and pursuing Federal priorities with vigor.”

Seven of the nine schools rejected the letter soon after receiving it, and reactions from the higher education community to the compact, which the administration indicated could be extended to any interested schools, were overwhelmingly negative.

Many university leaders, education organizations, and faculty and student groups voiced alarm, for example, about clear infringements on academic freedom (the document explicitly states that “academic freedom is not absolute”) and the fact that the compact would reward schools on the basis of loyalty to the administration rather than merit. Some schools, however, engaged with the administration to provide feedback about the initial compact and have been reluctant to share details of their positions; a few expressed interest in signing it.

The administration has also sought to oust specific administrators and pressure researchers into compliance. The administration’s attacks on University of Virginia president James Ryan over the school’s DEI programming, for example, led Ryan to resign in June. Individual academics, particularly those researching misinformation, cybersecurity, and other politically sensitive topics, were also targeted and, at times, succumbed to pressure to leave their positions.

Another thrust of the pressure campaign on researchers has involved examining and limiting their freedom to work with foreign scientists, as well as influencing foreign scientists themselves. In May, for example, NIH announced a new policy barring scientists from providing funding—in the form of subawards from grants given to U.S. researchers—to international collaborators. In the fall, Congress considered legislation amounting to an outright prohibition on U.S. scientists collaborating with researchers or advising students “affiliated with a hostile foreign entity,” specifically China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.

That bill drew substantial pushback from academia and failed to gain traction, although in December, the House passed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which still includes security restrictions for U.S. researchers.

Some foreign scientists themselves have been subjected to sweeping travel bans and denials of entry into the United States for allegedly criticizing the Trump administration. Scientists abroad who receive U.S. funding were sent surveys probing whether their research aligns with the administration’s agenda. In addition, foreign scientists seeking employment in the United States, including as postdocs and faculty at universities, now face a much steeper barrier to entry because of a new policy requiring employers to pay $100,000—instead of just a few thousand dollars—to secure an H-1B visa for their would-be hire.

Meanwhile, numerous U.S.-based researchers have contemplated trying to find employment in other countries, raising widespread concerns of a brain drain from the country’s scientific enterprise. In March, Nature reported that 75% of roughly 1,600 respondents to a poll they conducted said they were “considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by Trump.” And spurred by interest from other countries—from Canada to Europe to Asia—to entice U.S scientists with opportunities for employment abroad, at least some scientists have departed.

Resolute Resistance

The array of actions taken by the Trump administration to impose its will on the academic community prompted strong resistance and a multitude of rebuttals, many taking shape in courtrooms.

Major private and public universities initiated or joined lawsuits to try to win back canceled grants and contracts, challenge a cap on reimbursements, and fight limitations on enrolling international students.

Major private and public universities initiated or joined lawsuits to try to win back canceled grants and contracts, challenge caps on reimbursements of research overhead costs, and fight limitations on enrolling international students.

Organizations representing higher education—such as AAUP, the Association of American Universities, and the American Association of Colleges and Universities—issued multiple statements about executive orders and the administration’s punitive actions against universities. Some organizations also led legal challenges.

State governments, too, joined forces to fight the administration’s education cuts in court. Some have also tried to fill gaps created by the cuts, such as in Oregon, where lawmakers looked to preserve and expand education programs like the state’s Tribal Student Grant program.

In many cases, faculty themselves stepped up to call individuals and their institutions to action and take the government to court. In April, more than 1,900 scientists—all elected members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine—signed an open letter calling out the “real danger” posed to science by the administration’s actions. The same month, faculty groups at Big Ten universities began issuing resolutions asking their institutions to enter a mutual defense pact under which they could pool legal and financial resources in the event the administration targeted any of the schools.

Individual researchers have also instigated lawsuits to fight grant terminations they said were unjust and unexplained. Four scientists from institutions across the country, for example, joined with several organizations to file suit over terminated NIH and NSFgrants. (An initial U.S. District Court ruling in their favor was partly put on hold by the Supreme Court.)

In another case, a federal judge sided in June with a small group of researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, who, aided by colleagues from the university’s law school, sued over their own canceled grants. Alongside these legal challenges, other researchers have entered the fray by helping to track and organize information about terminated grants and by ramping up efforts to communicate about their science directly to the public.

What’s on the Horizon?

The first year of the second Trump administration was a colossal shock to the higher education system in the United States. The second year may follow suit. The lasting effects of the record-long 43-day federal shutdown will not be clear for weeks or months. The shutdown cut off communications with furloughed federal researchers, halted processing of grant applications, and, in some cases, limited researchers’ ability to draw existing grant funds.

Uncertainties around funding have been compounded by the fact that Congress has not settled on a full FY2026 budget and that it faces the potential for another shutdown in late January. House and Senate versions of the budget include substantially higher funding for science than was included in Trump’s budget request, but specific allocations remain unknown. Furthermore, numerous lawsuits challenging the legality of recent executive orders and administration efforts to cancel grants, curtail specific fields of research, and limit who is eligible for future funding—and even just to be on U.S. campuses—are still working their way through the courts. Rulings to date have predominantly been in favor of plaintiffs, a good sign for higher education institutions, but their ultimate outcomes are yet to be seen.

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

American Council on Education (2025), Higher education & the Trump administration, www.acenet.edu/Policy-Advocacy/Pages/2025-Trump-Administration-Transition.aspx.

Blake, J. (2025), Tracking key lawsuits against the Trump administration, Inside Higher Ed, 17 Nov., www.insidehighered.com/news/government/politics-elections/2025/09/30/tracking-key-lawsuits-against-trump-administration.

Blinder, A. (2025), How universities are responding to Trump, New York Times, 7 Nov., www.nytimes.com/article/trump-university-college.html.

Garisto, D., M. Kozlov, and H. Ledford (2025), Scientists take on Trump: These researchers are fighting back, Nature, 645, 298–300, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02811-4.

Herrman, J. (2025), Politicizing the federal grantmaking process, Government Executive, 19 Aug., www.govexec.com/management/2025/08/politicizing-federal-grantmaking-process/407558/.

Jones, B. (2025), AGU and AMS join forces on special collection to maintain research momentum supporting the US National Climate assessment, From the Prow, 2 May, fromtheprow.agu.org/nca-science-will-not-be-silenced/.

Jones, B. (2025), All that’s gold does not glitter, From the Prow, 20 Aug., fromtheprow.agu.org/all-thats-gold-does-not-glitter/.

Moldwin, M. (2025), Senior scientists must stand up against attacks on research and education, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250180.

National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities (2025), Executive orders affecting higher education, www.naicu.edu/policy-advocacy/advocacy-resources/fact-sheet-executive-orders-affecting-higher-education/.

Ro, C. (2025), The economic effects of federal cuts to US science — in 24 graphs, Nature, 25 June, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-01830-5.

van Deelen, G. (2025), U.S. National Climate Assessment likely dead after contract canceled, Eos, 9 Apr., eos.org/research-and-developments/u-s-national-climate-assessment-likely-dead-after-contract-canceled.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Universities reject Trump funding deal, Eos, 17 Oct., eos.org/research-and-developments/universities-reject-trump-funding-deal.

Wallack, T., M. Javaid, and S. Svrluga (2025), How foreign student enrollment is shifting in the U.S., in 6 charts, Washington Post, 17 Nov., www.washingtonpost.com/education/2025/11/17/foreign-student-enrollment-data/.

Witze, A. (2025), 75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving, Nature, 640, 298–299, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-00938-y.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Academia, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260005. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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The State of the Science 1 Year On: Environment

Thu, 01/15/2026 - 13:59
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Part 6 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU

The State of the Science 1 Year On Overview

Both on the campaign trail and during his time in office, President Donald Trump has spoken about wanting clean air and water for Americans. He even established a Make America Beautiful Again Commission and called himself an environmentalist.

He has also rescinded executive orders from past presidents aimed at protecting the environment, made “drill, baby, drill” one of his catchphrases, and described the concept of a carbon footprint as “a hoax made up by people with evil intentions.”

Since Trump took office in his second term, his administration has worked to roll back environmental protections. This work has included efforts to fast-track permits for mining, oil and gas exploration, and artificial intelligence infrastructure; changing pollution limits and reporting requirements; curtailing protections for public lands; and even narrowing the scope of the Endangered Species Act.

Air and Water Quality

Scientists play an important role in monitoring and protecting the quality of our nation’s air and water. Funding and staffing cuts have made this work increasingly difficult to do.

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), Trump’s omnibus spending bill for fiscal year 2026, suggests eliminating the research arm of NOAA and closing all weather and climate labs. It also includes a $2.46 billion cut to EPA’s Clean and Drinking Water State Revolving Funds, $1.01 billion in cuts to categorical grants that fund air and water quality efforts, and $721 million in cuts to the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development Program, which includes support to repair water systems damaged by disasters.

“Trump’s plan to virtually eliminate federal funding for clean, safe water represents a malevolent disregard for public health,” said Food & Water Watch executive director Wenonah Hauter in a statement.

The budget also eliminates the launch of a planned NOAA satellite, part of Geostationary Extended Observations, that would measure pollution, including from wildfire smoke, from space.

Independent of the proposed budget, the Trump administration also ordered the closure of 25 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers, which monitor U.S. waters for flooding and drought, as well as manage supply levels.

At NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, funding cuts have made it difficult for staff to purchase equipment. A 35% staff cut reduced scientists’ capacity to monitor the region’s harmful algal blooms, which can cause illness in humans and death in animals.

A common tactic by the Trump administration has been to shift pollution limits (or proposed limits) and to reduce the requirements for some entities to self-report pollution statistics. For instance, in May, the EPA announced that it would reconsider the limits for four per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in drinking water. PFAS are “forever chemicals” linked to developmental delays in children, cancer, and reduced fertility. Months later, however, the EPA announced that it would uphold a Biden era rule that holds polluters accountable for PFAS and perfluorooctanoic acid contamination.

In September, the administration proposed narrowing the scope of safety review for some chemicals already on the market, including formaldehyde and asbestos, a move praised by the chemical industry.

Also in September, provisions in the House and Senate annual Defense authorization bills sought to delay the phaseout of PFAS in the Pentagon. Jared Hayes, a senior policy analyst at the Environmental Working Group, told The Hill that such a delay would increase contamination, “essentially condemning more defense communities and another generation of service members.” Lawmakers across the country questioned the move in a formal letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The Department of Defense (now also known as the Department of War) also changed the timeline for cleanup of PFAS at more than 100 military sites around the country—in some cases by up to a decade, reported The New York Times.

In September, the EPA withdrew a proposed rule that would have tightened water pollution limits for slaughterhouses, which in 2019 released more than 28 million pounds (almost 13 million kilograms) of nutrients that can contaminate drinking water.

The cleanup of an oil spill in Louisiana, which left some residents’ homes and water supply contaminated, faced delays in September, in part because of funding cuts. A letter to the EPA from the Louisiana Environmental Action Network stated that people were reporting negative health effects daily.

In November, the EPA ended a Biden era rule that strengthened regulations on soot. The EPA previously predicted that the change would prevent up to 4,500 premature deaths in 2032, when the rule was scheduled to be fully in effect. Then, in December, the EPA proposed a revision to its assessment of the health risks of formaldehyde that would double the amount of the cancer-causing toxin considered safe to inhale.

Public Lands and Waters

Reorganization of the Department of the Interior, budget cuts to programs intended to protect national parks and federal lands, and narrowing the scope of the Endangered Species Act have threatened public lands, waters, and wetlands in the United States—and the creatures that call them home.

Texas oil executive Tyler Hassen was tasked with reorganizing the Interior Department in May. After leading a massive consolidation effort, he left the department in November, as reported by E&E News. Plans to lay off more than 2,000 workers were temporarily paused by a federal judge in October.

In June, the Department of Justice reversed a 1938 legal opinion by determining that Trump has the authority to abolish protected areas that past presidents designated as national monuments. Also in June, a Republican senator added a proposal to the OBBB that would allow the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management to sell off 2 million to 3 million acres (1.2 million hectares) of federal land. The proposal faced widespread backlash and was promptly removed.

In the summer, the U.S. Department of Agriculture proposed rescinding the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule, which protects about 45 million acres of National Forest System lands from road construction, reconstruction, and timber harvests. Nearly 224,000 people and organizations spoke out about the issue during the public comment period. According to the Center for Western Priorities, an environmental group, about 99% of the comments opposed the repeal.

“The Roadless Rule is one of the best ideas the U.S. Forest Service has ever had and repealing it is one of the worst,” said Vera Smith, national forests and public lands program director at Defenders of Wildlife, in a statement.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also proposed rescinding a public land management rule that made conservation a “use” of public lands in the same way that drilling and other extractive industries are considered uses.

The government is also transferred 760 acres of public land in California to the Navy to establish a “National Defense Area” in December and is considering giving 775 acres of the Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge in Texas to SpaceX.

The administration has also aimed to reduce or eliminate protections for U.S. waters and wetlands. In April, Trump signed an executive order opening a protected area of the central Pacific Ocean to commercial fishing. In November, the administration announced a proposal to redefine “waters of the United States” in a way that would eliminate protections for about 85% of the nation’s wetlands and more than 70% of the Colorado River’s flow sources.

Rollbacks in protections for public lands and waters often come with harms for the creatures living in these habitats, but the current administration has also introduced legislation that could have more direct effects on plants and animals. In August, the Department of Homeland Security waived protections provided by the Endangered Species Act and other statues in Texas’s Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge to expedite construction of a border wall.

In April, the Department of the Interior proposed redefining “harm” under the Endangered Species Act. The new definition would include only taking direct, intentional action to kill or injure endangered or threatened species. It would no longer include “significant habitat modification or degradation” that leads to such ends, which was included in the 1973 passage of the act and upheld in a 1995 ruling. “What they’re proposing will just fundamentally upend how we’ve been protecting endangered species in this country,” Noah Greenwald, codirector of endangered species at the Center for Biological Diversity, told The Los Angeles Times.

Fast-Tracking Permits

The Trump administration has reduced or eliminated many existing procedures meant to limit the environmental harm of development projects.

The 1970 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal agencies to assess the environmental effects of potential projects. Environmental impact statements are required if a proposed action is expected to have a “significant effect” on the environment. The act includes a public comment period, but 2025 changes to NEPA procedures have shortened notice and public comment periods.

“This disastrous decision to undermine our nation’s bedrock environmental law means our air and water will be more polluted, the climate and extinction crises will intensify, and people will be less healthy.”

In January, the administration finalized plans to rescind NEPA-related regulations.

In May, the Supreme Court limited the scope of environmental reviews with a ruling about a proposed railway in Utah.

“This disastrous decision to undermine our nation’s bedrock environmental law means our air and water will be more polluted, the climate and extinction crises will intensify, and people will be less healthy,” Wendy Park, a lawyer with the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement.

In July, Trump issued an executive order to accelerate federal permitting of infrastructure for data centers, which can use more than a million gallons of water per day. In August, another executive order authorized the secretary of transportation to “eliminate or expedite” environmental reviews for commercial space launch and reentry permits.

The administration has also made efforts to expedite permitting for mining projects, vowing to reduce a sometimes yearslong process down “to just 28 days at most.” In May, the Interior Department announced plans to complete the environmental assessment for the Velvet-Wood mine project in Utah in just 2 weeks. Construction of the mine, which is set to extract uranium and vanadium, began in November.

“Beautiful Clean Coal”

According to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget, coal is responsible for 41% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions. It also emits chemicals that are harmful to human health, such as sulfur dioxides and heavy metals. Reliance on coal in the United Staes has been falling for decades: In 2001, about 51% of the country’s net electricity generation came from coal. By 2023, the figure had dropped to 16.2%.

However, a boom in building artificial intelligence data centers, supported by the administration, threatens to reverse the decline, E&E News reported.

An April executive order focused on reviving the coal industry laid out plans to enable coal mining on federal lands and revise regulations aimed at transitioning the country away from coal production. The order also designated coal as a critical mineral.

The same month, the administration exempted at least 66 coal plants from Biden era requirements to reduce emissions of toxins such as mercury and arsenic.

Georgia resident Andrea Goolsby told E&E News she was relieved when Georgia Power announced the retirement of a nearby coal plant in 2022. But in January, the utility company announced that the plant would stay open until 2039, and in April, it became one of the 66 plants exempted from emission reduction requirements.

“It feels like we’re going back in time…I don’t understand why they are giving pollution passes that affect people’s health.”

“It feels like we’re going back in time,” Goolsby told E&E. “I don’t understand why they are giving pollution passes that affect people’s health.”

In November, the EPA proposed delaying the closure of coal ash ponds—which are leaking materials such as arsenic and lead into surrounding groundwater—at 11 coal power plants until October 2031.

A March executive order demanded action to increase production of minerals more generally, including uranium, potash, gold, and critical minerals. In November, that list of critical minerals grew by 10, bringing the total to 60. Among the additions were copper, lead, silver, and uranium.

The administration has also worked to expand the scope of where mining occurs.

A provision in the OBBB, for instance, aimed to end a 20-year moratorium on mining in Minnesota’s popular Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. The language was removed by a House committee before the OBBB was signed into law, but the Trump administration announced plans to end the moratorium anyway.

The Trump administration’s efforts to expand mining stretch beyond land and, indeed, beyond the borders of the United States. An April executive order called for expediting the permitting process for companies to mine the deep sea in areas both within and beyond national jurisdiction. In late December, the administration announced it was formally considering permit applications for seafloor mining and that it would hold public hearings on the applications in late January 2026.

Looking Ahead

The Trump administration announces changes to environmental policy almost daily, and their effects often don’t manifest immediately.

In November, the Energy Department posted a revised organizational chart that among other changes, no longer displays the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations. It remains to be seen how this cut will affect the mission of the department, which has seen a roughly 20% reduction in its workforce over the past year, according to The New York Times. The same month, the Interior Department proposed opening up the coastal waters of California and Florida to offshore oil drilling, a plan that was met with opposition by the governors of both states. Potential health and economic costs aside, scientists and other stakeholders are concerned that the “continued politicization of science-based policy making threatens our environmental resilience, particularly in the face of climate change,” wrote hydrologist Adam Ward.

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

Center for Western Priorities (2025), Comment analysis finds over 99% opposition to repealing 2001 roadless rule, 19 Sept., westernpriorities.org/2025/09/comment-analysis-finds-over-99-opposition-to-repealing-2001-roadless-rule/.

Daly, M. (2025), Trump exempts nearly 70 coal plants from Biden-era rule on mercury and other toxic air pollution, Associated Press, 15 April, apnews.com/article/trump-coal-power-plants-epa-exemptions-zeldin-2cd9f2697b5f46a88ab9882ab6fd1641.

Environmental Integrity (2025), Cuts to State Environmental Agencies Compound Damage from
Trump’s Dismantling of EPA, 10 Dec., https://environmentalintegrity.org/news/cuts-to-state-environmental-agencies-compound-damage-from-trumps-dismantling-of-epa/

Gardner, E. (2025), Judge stops shutdown-related RIFs indefinitely, Eos, 28 Oct., eos.org/research-and-developments/judge-stops-shutdown-related-rifs-indefinitely.

Gelles, D. (2025), Trump’s environmental claims ignore decades of climate science, New York Times, 29 Oct., www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/climate/donald-trump-climate-change-claims.html.

Gladstone, S. (2025), Trump’s 2026 budget plan nearly eliminates federal funding for clean water in America, Food & Water Watch, 2 May, www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2025/05/02/trumps-2026-budget-plan-nearly-eliminates-federal-funding-for-clean-water-in-america/.

Liptak, A. (2025), Supreme Court curbs scope of environmental reviews, New York Times, 29 May, www.nytimes.com/2025/05/29/us/politics/supreme-court-environmental-reviews.html.

Moreno, I. (2025), New tools show how Trump EPA funding cuts harms communities, Natural Resources Defense Council, 16 Sept., www.nrdc.org/press-releases/new-tools-show-how-trump-epa-funding-cuts-harms-communities.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2025), EPA & Army Corps unveil clear, durable WOTUS proposal, 17 Nov., www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-army-corps-unveil-clear-durable-wotus-proposal.

van Deelen, G. (2025), EPA to abandon stricter PM2.5 air pollution limits, Eos, 26 Nov., eos.org/research-and-developments/epa-to-abandon-stricter-pm2-5-air-pollution-limits.

Vought, R.T. (2025), FY2026 budget recommendations, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, D.C., 2 May, www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Fiscal-Year-2026-Discretionary-Budget-Request.pdf.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Environment, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260006. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The Past 3 Years Have Been the Three Hottest on Record

Wed, 01/14/2026 - 17:00

Global average temperatures in 2025 were the third hottest on record, surpassed only by 2024 and 2023, according to an analysis published by Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit climate research organization.

According to the analysis, last year’s global average temperature was about 1.35°C–1.53°C (2.43°F–2.75°F) greater than the 1850–1900 average. The previous year, 2024, was 1.46°C–1.62°C (2.63°F–2.92°F) above the preindustrial baseline, while 2023 was 1.48°C–1.60°C (2.66°F–2.88°F) above the baseline.

The report’s authors called the exceptional heat of the past 3 years a “warming spike” that may indicate an acceleration in the rate of climate change. “The warming observed from 2023 through 2025 stands out clearly from the long-term trend,” said Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, in a statement. 

Such a spike may also indicate that the past warming rate is no longer a reliable predictor of future warming, the authors wrote.

“2023, 2024, and 2025 collectively cause us to rethink” Earth’s warming rate, Rohde said in a press briefing. Whether warming is accelerating or not, Earth’s temperature is rapidly exceeding key thresholds, such as the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C (2.7°F), he said.

Scientists say the exceptional warming observed in the past 3 years could be evidence of accelerating warming. Credit: Berkeley Earth, CC BY-NC 4.0

“The overall trends in temperature are very consistent” among international agencies that track global temperature.

The report aligns with an analysis from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) that also concluded that 2025 was the third-hottest year in the global temperature record. NOAA-NCEI calculated that the year was 1.17°C (2.11°F) above the 20th-century global average.

“There are different methodologies for how the global temperature [reports] are created, but the science behind it, the data behind it, by and large, are all shared,” said Karin Gleason, a climate scientist and chief of the monitoring section at NOAA-NCEI.

“The overall trends in temperature are very consistent” among international agencies that track global temperature, she said.

What’s Causing the Spike?

While global average temperatures have been increasing for more than a century, the past 3 years’ warming spike is notably extreme relative to the mostly linear trend of the past 50 years. 

“The magnitude of this recent spike suggests additional factors have amplified recent warming beyond what we would expect from greenhouse gases and natural variability alone.”

“The magnitude of this recent spike suggests additional factors have amplified recent warming beyond what we would expect from greenhouse gases and natural variability alone,” Rohde said.

The report suggested that reductions in cloud cover and changes to atmospheric aerosols, particularly as a result of new regulations on sulfur pollution from ships in 2020, may be partly to blame for the spike. The Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption in 2022 may have also contributed to warming, though further research is needed to fully understand the eruption’s effects, the report stated.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon that affects heat storage in the ocean, contributed to extreme heat in 2023 and 2024 during the El Niño phase, but remained in a weak La Niña condition for much of 2025. Such a condition would typically be expected to slightly cool global temperatures. Without the effect of La Niña, it’s possible 2025 would have been the hottest year ever recorded, Gleason said.

Gleason pointed out that a similar “warming spike” occurred in 2015 and 2016 as a result of a strong El Niño.

Humanity Faces the Heat

According to Berkeley Earth’s report, about 770 million people across the world experienced their local hottest year ever in 2025. The majority of the large population centers affected by this record-breaking heat were in Asia.

No place on Earth recorded the locally coldest year ever.

An estimated 770 million people experienced the locally hottest year ever recorded in 2025. Credit: Berkeley Earth, CC BY-NC 4.0

The report came as estimates from the Rhodium Group, a think tank, showed that the United States’ greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% in 2025 after 2 years of decline. The United States experienced its fourth-hottest year ever recorded in 2025, according to an analysis from Climate Central, a nonprofit climate change research group, and another analysis by NOAA-NCEI. 

The exceptional warming underscores “how essential sustained monitoring is to understanding [climate] changes in real time,” Kristen Sissener, executive director of Berkeley Earth, said in a statement. “Continued investment in high-quality, resilient, and robust open climate data is critical to ensuring that governments, industry, and local communities can respond based on evidence, not assumptions.”

The Berkeley Earth report predicted that global temperature trends in 2026 will be similar to those of 2025, with 2026 expected to be roughly the fourth-warmest year since records began. 

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

14 January: This story has been updated to include information from a Berkeley Earth press briefing.

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), The past 3 years have been the three hottest on record, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260031. Published on 14 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

AI Sheds Light on Hard-to-Study Ocean Currents

Wed, 01/14/2026 - 14:12
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation

The Indonesian Throughflow carries both warm water and fresh water from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean. As the only low-latitude current that connects the two bodies of water, it plays a key role in ocean circulation and sea surface temperature worldwide.

The current is as complex as it is important: The seas surrounding Indonesia are home to deep basins and sills and a hodgepodge of ocean processes that make the Indonesian Throughflow difficult to measure. On-the-ground—or, rather, on-the-sea—observations are scarce as well because such observational systems are expensive and difficult to design and maintain.

Wang et al. combined artificial intelligence (AI) modeling techniques with observing system simulation experiment design concepts. Their method used sea surface height measurements to predict the behavior of this influential current and its individual passages and estimate which strait has the greatest effect on the current’s behavior.

The researchers developed a deep learning model that uses two types of networks to conduct observing system simulation experiments. The first, called a convolutional neural network (CNN), is often used for image classification and, in this case, was used to extract trends from data about the Indonesian Throughflow. The second, called a recurrent neural network (RNN), is most commonly used to sort through sequential data. In this work, the RNN processed the trends identified by the CNN and analyzed their changes over time. The approach proved to be much less computationally costly than running a traditional observing system simulation experiment.

The results recapitulated observed water transport trends and showed that sea surface height is a key predictor of conditions in some of the shallower straits between Indonesian islands. The Maluku Strait emerged as a passage where water conditions have a strong influence on the entire system and thus as a strong candidate for future monitoring efforts, the researchers found. Combining information about the Maluku and Halmahera Straits was even more effective at predicting system-wide conditions. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JH000808, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2026), AI sheds light on hard-to-study ocean currents, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260027. Published on 14 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Los microplásticos tienen efectos muy variados en el suelo

Wed, 01/14/2026 - 14:12

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. Esta es una traducción al español autorizada de un artículo de Eos.

A medida que la producción mundial de plástico se ha disparado, pequeños fragmentos de plástico se han infiltrado en los ríos, el hielo marino e incluso en nuestros cerebros. De acuerdo con un nuevo estudio, cuando las minúsculas fibras y los fragmentos se filtran en el suelo, cambian la forma en que este interactúa con el agua.

El estudio, publicado en la revista Vadose Zone Journal, midió la retención de agua y la conductividad en suelos de tres regiones de Alemania con y sin cuatro microplásticos diferentes. Los investigadores encontraron que una concentración de plástico de solo el 0.4% en masa puede cambiar la velocidad con que el agua fluye a través del suelo, dependiendo tanto del tipo de plástico como del tipo de suelo. Según los autores, es probable que las propiedades hidráulicas alteradas se deban a la naturaleza hidrófoba del plástico y a que las partículas de microplástico cambian la disposición de los gránulos individuales del suelo.

Las pequeñas partículas del suelo se adhieren entre sí formando grumos. Los espacios entre estos grumos forman conductos por los que circulan agua, nutrientes y las raíces de las plantas. El tamaño y la distribución de estos espacios afectan al drenaje del suelo y a su capacidad de retención de agua, lo que tiene implicaciones para el crecimiento de las plantas.

“Las características hídricas de un suelo indican la rapidez con la que el agua se drena a través del suelo, lo que afecta a los cultivos y a los acuíferos.”

“Las características hídricas del suelo indican la rapidez con la que el agua se drena a través del suelo, lo que impacta cultivos y acuíferos”, menciona la autora principal del estudio, Katharina Neubert, científica especializada en suelos del Forschungszentrum Jülich en Alemania.

Investigaciones anteriores han mostrado que los microplásticos pueden alterar la estructura del suelo y sus propiedades hidráulicas, pero cada uno de esos estudios examinó sólo un tipo de suelo o un tipo de plástico. El nuevo estudio es el primero en evaluar cómo múltiples tipos de microplásticos afectan a múltiples tipos de suelo.

Los investigadores colectaron suelo de tres regiones agrícolas distintas de Alemania, que tenían diferentes texturas, niveles de carbono y niveles de pH. Después, obtuvieron cuatro microplásticos ampliamente usados variando en tamaño entre 300 micrómetros y 5 milímetros: polietileno, polipropileno, poliestireno y poliéster. Descompusieron las partículas más grandes en una licuadora y luego mezclaron cada plástico con cada tipo de suelo en una concentración del 0.4% en peso. En combinación con un control libre de plástico para cada tipo de suelo, se obtuvieron 15 combinaciones únicas de suelo y microplásticos.

Los autores vertieron cada mezcla en un cilindro metálico conectado a un dispositivo de succión para ver la rapidez con la que la succión extraía el agua del suelo. Realizaron la prueba en suelo húmedo y seco, ya que el nivel de humedad también influye en la rapidez con la que el agua se drena a través del suelo.

Desenterrando una relación matizada

Los cuatro microplásticos alteraron las tasas de flujo del agua en al menos uno de los suelos, pero la magnitud y la dirección del efecto variaron considerablemente. Por ejemplo, las fibras de poliéster, comúnmente desprendidas de algunos tipos de ropa, aumentaron la velocidad a la que fluía el agua a través de un suelo en más de un 50% cuando estaba húmedo, pero redujeron la tasa de flujo en más de un 50% en condiciones secas.

“Es muy difícil hacer una afirmación general sobre cómo cambia el suelo con los microplásticos.”

“Todos los resultados dependen del contexto”, afirma Rosolino Ingraffia, científico especializado en suelos de la Università degli Studi di Palermo en Italia, que no participó en la investigación. “Es muy difícil hacer una afirmación general sobre cómo cambia el suelo con los microplásticos”.

Otro estudio reciente en el que Neubert participó como coautora mostró cómo las diferencias en las tasas de flujo podrían traducirse en la agricultura. Ella cultivó plantas de trigo en los mismos tres tipos de suelo con y sin dos microplásticos: polietileno y poliéster. Los resultados fueron igualmente complicados, ya que el plástico añadido aumentaba, disminuía o no afectaba al crecimiento de las raíces, dependiendo de la combinación.

La concentración de plástico del 0.4% utilizada en ambos estudios es mucho mayor que la que albergan la mayoría de los campos agrícolas en la actualidad, según Neubert e Ingraffia. Por ejemplo, las tierras cultivables que han sido tratadas con biosólidos durante una década presentan concentraciones más cercanas al 0.002%. Sin embargo, los cálculos basados en la tasa actual de acumulación de microplásticos sugieren que muchas zonas podrían alcanzar esta concentración del 0.4% en 50 o 60 años, añadió Ingraffia.

Neubert espera que su investigación dé lugar a regulaciones que impidan que los microplásticos alcancen esos niveles. Alemania planea eliminar progresivamente el uso de lodos de depuradora ricos en nutrientes como fertilizantes en la mayoría de los campos agrícolas, en parte debido a la preocupación por la contaminación plástica, afirmó. Un estudio identificó esta práctica como una de las principales fuentes de microplásticos en el suelo de Alemania.

Es importante mantener el plástico fuera del suelo porque “aún no sabemos qué consecuencias tiene para nuestros suelos”, dijo Neubert.

—Mark DeGraff (@markr4nger.bsky.social), Escritor científico

This translation by Saúl A. Villafañe-Barajas (@villafanne) was made possible by a partnership with Planeteando and Geolatinas. Esta traducción fue posible gracias a una asociación con Planeteando y Geolatinas.

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Where the Tianshan Will Break Next: Strain, Slip, and Seismic Hazard

Wed, 01/14/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Geophysical Research Letters 

The Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia have produced more than 100 large earthquakes in the past three centuries, showing that many faults in the region are still active. Chang et al. [2025] use the complete set of available GNSS (satellite-based positioning) measurement data, from 936 stations, to map how the crust is currently deforming. From these measurements, surface strain rates are calculated and, using novel inversion methods, an estimate of the seismic potential can be provided.

The authors find that most deformation (about 70%) is concentrated in the western Tianshan, where mapped faults accommodate roughly 60% of this strain. By comparing these results with the history of past earthquakes, the study identifies 20 fault segments with a “deficit”, that is, capable of producing future earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger.

This work provides the first region-wide model of slip deficit and seismic potential for Tianshan and offers information that can directly improve seismic hazard assessments in Central Asia. The findings are especially timely following the 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi earthquake.

Citation: Chang, F., Fang, J., Dong, S., Yin, H., Rollins, C., Elliott, J. R., & Hooper, A. J. (2025). Geodetic strain rates, slip deficit rates, and seismic potential in the Tianshan, Central Asia. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL118470. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118470   

—Fabio A. Capitanio, Editor, Geophysical Research Letters

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Melting Glaciers Mix Up Waters More Than We Thought

Tue, 01/13/2026 - 14:12
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

As marine-terminating glaciers melt, the resulting freshwater is released at the seafloor, which mixes with salty seawater and influences circulation patterns. As the oceans warm, it’s growing increasingly important to study this process. Researchers do so using the framework of buoyant plume theory, which describes how rising freshwater interacts with denser salt water. Falling chunks of ice, which can easily crush boats, make working near glaciers dangerous. Thus, empirical data that can verify buoyant plume theory have rarely been collected.

Ovall et al. helped fill this gap by using remotely operated kayaks equipped with instruments to monitor the features of water flowing out from Xeitl Sít’ (also called LeConte Glacier) in southeastern Alaska. Their work marked the first time researchers took measurements of a plume’s size, shape, and velocity from directly above the upwelling plume.

The robotic kayaks allowed the researchers to observe the plume of rising freshwater without risking their own safety. Instruments aboard the kayaks sent acoustic signals downward, which bounced off particles within the rising plume to measure its velocity.

The volume and characteristics of the rising plume of water are substantially different from those predicted by buoyant plume theory, they found. The study’s measurements found that upwelling water moves at rates of more than a meter per second. Buoyant plume theory doesn’t capture the extent to which freshwater pulls salt water into the rising plume, leading researchers to underestimate the volume of the plume by as much as 50%. That mismatch likely arose in part because scientists underestimated how the shape of a glacier’s submarine portion affects the interaction between freshwater and ocean water. However, the authors note, there are likely other factors at play that have not yet been identified. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022902, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2025), Melting glaciers mix up waters more than we thought, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250474. Published on 13 January 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Microbial Genes Could Improve Our Understanding of Water Pollution

Tue, 01/13/2026 - 14:12
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Underground environments like soil and aquifers teem with microbial life. These tiny microbes play a big role in cycling nutrients and breaking down or transforming pollutants. However, scientists still struggle to reliably model how microbes grow and decay.

Most studies of groundwater microbe communities focus on free-floating planktonic microbes, which make up less than 10% of an aquifer’s microbial population. The majority of microbes in groundwater are attached to sediment, making examination more difficult. Many studies are also done in labs, rather than on site.

Strobel et al. set out to study whether tracking biomarkers, such as specific genes produced by microbes during their life cycles, can improve models aimed at predicting how well microbes degrade pollutants in aquifers. They conducted research in southwestern Germany’s Ammer River floodplain, where groundwater sources with low oxygen levels and sediment with a high organic carbon content were ideal for microbial denitrification (the reduction of nitrate to nitrogen gas) to occur. The team constructed two 8.4-meter-deep wells surrounded by PVC casings and inserted seven microbial trapping devices (MTDs)—containers of sterilized sediment packed into a filter that served as a proxy for the microbial community in the aquifer matrix—into one of the wells. The MTDs remained submerged for 4.5 months prior to any experiments to allow the microbial community time to adapt to the environment and proliferate.

During a roughly 10-day period, while the MTDs were in the outflow well, the researchers injected nitrate-rich groundwater at the inflow well and extracted groundwater from the outflow well. The presence of nitrate, a pollutant that comes from sources such as fertilizer and sewage waste, spurred the microbial community into the process of denitrification. The team monitored the concentration of nitrate at the outflow and periodically withdrew an MTD to be transported to a lab for DNA analysis.

The growing abundance of key denitrification genes (napA and narG) in the earlier samples, followed by a decline in the later samples, indicated a dynamic microbial response to the added nitrate. The researchers’ efforts to use mathematical models to match their observations showed the importance of microbial growth during denitrification to control the extent of nitrate removal. The researchers note that though MTDs do not act as a perfect proxy for studying real aquifers, overall, the findings provide insight into the use of biomarkers to track biogeochemical processes, such as denitrification, in nature. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG009181, 2025)

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen R. (2026), Microbial genes could improve our understanding of water pollution, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260015. Published on 13 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Are We Really Seeing More Foreshocks with Enhanced Catalogs?

Tue, 01/13/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Foreshocks are smaller earthquakes that sometimes occur before bigger ones and studying them could help give early warnings of large earthquakes and understand how large earthquakes occur. But, because scientists use different ways to define and find foreshocks, estimates for how often they happen before big earthquakes in Southern California vary a lot—from 19% to 72%.

Khan et al. [2025] looked at both regular earthquake catalog and special “enhanced” catalogs with more small events to figure out why these estimates are so different. They found that using a simple method, just by checking small quakes near big ones in space and time, could lead to high foreshock rate, but the rate is comparable between standard and enhanced catalogs. Using statistics of past seismicity to define foreshock is better, but the choice of statistical representation matters. Assuming a constant average rate of past earthquakes (using a Poisson distribution) produces the highest foreshock rates and makes the results most sensitive to magnitude cut-offs and catalog choice. Their preferred method uses statistical distributions that account for variations in past earthquake rates, resulting in more reliable foreshock rates that are less sensitive to the magnitude cut-off or the type of earthquake catalog used.

This study clears up confusion about the wide range of foreshocks rates from previous studies in the same region and is the most thorough review of foreshock studies in Southern California so far. The authors also provide clear definitions, guidelines, and computer codes for other researchers to use. The authors emphasize the need to carefully consider biases in data and statistical methods in searching for precursory signals before large earthquakes and offer useful tips for improving short-term earthquake forecasts in the future.

Citation: Khan, R. A., Werner, M. J., Biggs, J., & Fagereng, Å. (2025). Effect of mainshock selection, earthquake catalog and definition on foreshock rate estimates in Southern California. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130, e2024JB030733. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030733

—Xiaowei Chen, Associate Editor, JGR: Solid Earth

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Hundreds of Scientists “Vehemently Oppose” U.S. Effort to Purchase Greenland

Mon, 01/12/2026 - 20:49
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

More than 200 scientists have signed a letter condemning U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland.

“Greenland’s scientists and citizens have made enormous contributions to the world’s understanding of the Arctic and how rapid Arctic changes are affecting people around the world,” the letter reads. “To Greenlanders: Qujanaq, and we stand with you.”

It follows another letter issued in February 2025, which called the effort “a dangerous distraction from the urgent work of addressing environmental change impacts to U.S. citizens.”

The president first expressed interest in buying Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, in 2019, during his first term in office, and has mentioned it throughout his second term. The campaign for the acquisition has intensified in the wake of the United States’ seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

 
Related

Greenland is rich in oil and in minerals such as lithium, copper, and rare earths. However, Malte Humpert, founder and senior fellow at The Arctic Institute, told CNN that the idea of extensive rare earth mining on the island is “completely bonkers.”

“You might as well mine on the Moon,” he said. “In some respects, it’s worse than the Moon.”

Greenland is also strategically located between the North American and Eurasian Arctic. Its northwest coast is also home to the U.S. Pituffik Space Base.

“If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will take Greenland, and I am not going to let that happen,” Trump told reporters on 11 January from Air Force One. “One way or the other, we’re going to have Greenland … They need us much more than we need them.”

“Times have changed since Inuit lands were mere commodities that could be bought and sold,” wrote Sara Olsvig, Chair of the Inuit Circumpolar in a January 2025 statement. “In today’s world, we are active participants in decision-making about our lands and resources. We are beyond the times of typical colonial attitudes of superiority.”

In a LinkedIn post last week, Greenland’s prime minster, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, called the rhetoric “totally unacceptable” and “disrespectful.” A statement issued by the leaders of several European countries affirmed that “Greenland belongs to its people.”

Greenland is a critical location for climate science research, and many researchers have expressed concerns about how a U.S. takeover could affect this international scientific enterprise.

“Anything that injures our long-standing friendly relationship with Greenland is also an injury to science,” Yarrow Axford, a paleoclimatologist and one of the creators of the letter, wrote in an email to Eos. “There’s so much climate science and other important work that can only be done in Greenland, and only in partnership with Greenland’s people. I hope we can all weather this latest storm together.”

Mia Tuccillo, a paleolimnologist and Arctic scientist who is advised by Yarrow and also helped author the letter, wrote in an email to Eos that the research collaborations between the two nations are relatively new, and are delicate because of the history of U.S. intervention in Greenland.

“The statements by our government and by Trump that challenge Greenland’s sovereignty directly threaten these new priorities and collaborations—things that have greatly revolutionized and improved the ethos of geosciences—and things that are still very new and very, very valuable,” Tuccillo wrote.

“A unilateral US takeover threatens to disrupt the open scientific collaboration that is helping us understand the threat of global sea-level rise,” wrote glaciologist Martin Siegert in The Conversation.

The U.S. scientists behind the letter also issued a statement expressing solidarity with Greenland. Many shared (unattributed) personal messages at the end of the letter.

“Greenland is a unique culture and a critical part of the earth’s climate system, not a pawn in a real estate deal,” wrote one scientist.

“Without the help, knowledge, and skills of people in Greenland, we would have never been able to even reach our field site let alone conduct our research. When Greenlanders lead the way, our science improves and becomes more useful and relevant to both local and the international communities,” wrote another.

—Emily Gardner (@emfurd.bsky.social), Associate Editor

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correctly differentiate between the letters issued in February 2025 and January 2026.

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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New Insights into the Foggy Role of Contrails Within Clouds

Mon, 01/12/2026 - 14:04

When airplanes create trails of soot and moisture, water in the atmosphere condenses on the particles and freezes, leaving behind the familiar streaks known as condensation trails—or contrails. Contrails are so frequently the target of conspiracy theories that it might seem as though the word is a portmanteau of “conspiracy trails.” And although contrails do not contain harmful chemicals, these bands of condensation can, in fact, affect the atmosphere, with some reports suggesting that they account for more than half of aircrafts’ warming effect on the climate.

Most of these traces of air travel vanish within minutes of a plane’s passage. To have any effect on even local climate conditions, the air must be cold and humid enough for the contrails to last on the order of hours so that they can spread into a thin blanket of high-altitude ice crystals that captures some of Earth’s outgoing heat.

Though contrails are most recognizable when they pull a fresh veil across a clear sky, it’s within preexisting cirrus clouds that relevant climate conditions are most common. Exactly what percentage of condensation deposits form within clouds and what that means for their effects on the climate, though, have long been uncertain.

“We didn’t expect that.”

Now, new research in Nature Communications aims to elucidate scientists’ understanding of how contrails embedded within high-altitude cirrus clouds affect the climate.

Along with his team, Andreas Petzold, an atmospheric scientist at the research institution Forschungszentrum Jülich, examined 7 years of temperature and humidity data collected by sensors aboard passenger aircraft that together covered a combined 17 million kilometers (10.6 million miles) of flights. They combined these data with satellite-based weather observations to determine how often the conditions for long-lived contrails are met both inside and outside of extant clouds.

Though Petzold expected that the majority of contrails would form in regions preseeded with clouds, he didn’t anticipate the scale. “The fraction was so huge,” he said. “We didn’t expect that.”

In the flight corridors of the Northern Hemisphere over eastern North America, the North Atlantic, and western Europe, where the bulk of data were collected, roughly 90% of long-lived contrails formed within preexisting clouds. Many climate models, however, assume that the atmospheric imprints of aircraft are stamped on clear skies.

The net climate effect of a contrail changes depending on the thickness of the cloud in which it forms. Thicker cirrus clouds can buffer the warming that contrails might contribute and can even lead to local cooling. But when contrails appear in thin clouds (many so thin that the eye can’t see them), the force of their warming can become even more significant than if they had formed in clear skies.

The new findings mean that the relationships between contrails and the climate is more complex than previously realized. “We need to get a quantification of the effects from model studies,” Petzold said, “because we’ve shown that this is such a big fraction, but we do not know how they impact the whole picture.”

Cirrus Streaks

During the day, the Sun’s heat can make a cirrus cloud thickened by a contrail more reflective, creating a local cooling effect. But at night, this contrail thickening traps heat and increases local warming.

In another study published just a few weeks after Petzold’s, a Leipzig University research group studied contrails’ climate effects by examining more than 40,000 contrails that planes streaked through cirrus clouds over a 6-year span.

They found that on average, embedded contrails contributed just 5 milliwatts per square meter of warming across the planet—a measurement of the amount of change in radiative force occurring at any given moment in time. That’s a paltry sum compared to the 3,320 milliwatts per square meter of warming caused by greenhouse gases emitted over the industrial era, as estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“Cirrus are quite important for climate in general.”

Though neither study overturns scientists’ understanding of the way contrails form, said Michael Diamond, a cloud physicist at Florida State University, “one of the really big advances here is just how much high-quality data they’re bringing to bear.”

The data collected by Petzold’s team could help inform future studies of the internal microphysics of cirrus clouds, which is important not only for a better understanding of the climate consequences of aviation but also because “cirrus are quite important for climate in general,” Diamond said. Cirrus is the only cloud type that traps more heat than it reflects, so understanding whether cirrus clouds will become more or less frequent as climate change progresses is a key question to answer.

Results like Petzold’s can also help inform the work that many in and around the aviation industry are doing to improve forecasting so that aviators can follow flight paths that limit the potential for long-lived contrails to form. And though finding ways to eliminate aviation emissions entirely through sustainable fuel sources or battery-powered planes is essential, decreasing the formation of the most impactful forms of long-lived contrails would make a meaningful difference in reducing the near-term warming caused by air travel.

—Syris Valentine (@shapersyris.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Valentine, S. (2026), New insights into the foggy role of contrails within clouds, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260024. Published on 12 January 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Rethinking How to Measure Roots

Mon, 01/12/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Roots are essential plant organs responsible for the uptake of water and nutrients from soil.  However, they are largely hidden from view and notoriously hard to quantify. Roots are often quantified by their mass distribution with depth, which involves separating and weighing roots having a variety of diameters below a cutoff (often 2 millimeters). However, this approach emphasizes the largest roots that contain most of the mass, while the very fine roots with little mass are responsible for most of the biogeochemical functioning.

Billings et al. [2025] have developed a relatively simple method for estimating the volume of soil interacting with fine and coarser roots, by quantifying root abundance instead of mass. They show that the abundance of fine roots does not decline as fast as overall root mass with increasing soil depth. Their results upend the standard paradigm of exponential decline in root functions set by root mass measurements and indicate a new paradigm is needed that links fine-root depth distributions with their hydrological, geochemical and ecological functions.

Citation: Billings, S. A., Sullivan, P. L., Li, L., Hirmas, D. R., Nippert, J. B., Ajami, H., et al. (2025). Contrasting depth dependencies of plant root presence and mass across biomes underscore prolific root-regolith interactions. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV002072.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002072

—Susan Trumbore, Editor, AGU Advances

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Binaliw: the massive garbage landslide in Cebu City, the Philippines

Mon, 01/12/2026 - 08:02

Recovery operations continue for the 36 victims of the 8 January 2026 garbage landslide in the Philippines.

Recovery operations are continuing at the site of the 8 January 2026 landslide at Binaliw in Cebu, the Philippines. At the time of writing, it is reported that the bodies of eight victims have been recovered, whilst 28 more remain missing. Whilst there were some reports yesterday of signs of life in the debris, the reality is that this is unlikely to be a rescue operation. A further 18 people were injured in the failure.

The location of the landslide is [10.41609, 123.92159].

Recovery operations have been hindered by heavy rainfall and the potential for a further failure at the site. Garbage also generates methane, which represents an additional risk.

There is some footage of the landslide as it occurred posted to Youtube:-

There is also a really good set of drone footage of the aftermath:-

This image, from the drone footage, captures the situation well:-

The aftermath of the 8 January 2026 garbage landslide at Banaliw in the Philippines. Image from a drone video posted to Youtube by The Daily Guardian, courtesy of Reuters.

The victims are believed to be located in the destroyed building at the foot of the Binaliw landslide.

Note the very steep rear scarp of the landslide. It appears that the failure mechanism at the crown was rotational – the remains of a rotated block can be seen forming a bench across the site – with the lower portion transitioning into a flow.

Rotational landslides typically occur in relatively homogenous materials (which at the scale of the landslide, will often be the case for garbage). At the most simple level, it is likely that the garbage pile was over-steepened, perhaps compounded by poor management of water. Work will be needed to understand how that can have occurred, but the processes through which tipping of wate at the top of the pile will be a focus. I would also consider carefully the road that appears to have crossed the waste upslope of the building (now buried). Did that cause local oversteepening?

I have written about garbage landslides repeatedly over the years. In 2011, I highlighted an event at Baguio in the Philippines. In every case, the losses were preventable.

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Central China Water Towers Provide Stable Water Resources Under Change

Fri, 01/09/2026 - 15:24
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

The mountains ringing the Pacific Rim—stretching from the Andes to the Rockies, the Himalayas, and beyond—act as actual “water towers.” They host huge reserves of water that are stored in snowpack, glaciers, lakes, and soils, and then feed rivers and supply freshwater to billions of people downstream.

Yue et al. [2026] analyze how climate change affects freshwater supply from water towers by analyzing a new dendrochronological network of 100 tree-ring sampling sites. They first reconstruct Central China Water Tower (CCWT) runoff back to 1595. Then, by considering projections from climate models, the authors reveal increasing runoff across most Pacific Rim water towers, whereas water resources from the Northern Rocky Mountains are projected to decline substantially. These differences are attributed to distinct geographies and synoptic climatic conditions. The findings provide insights for adaptive management strategies in China.

Citation: Yue, W., Torbenson, M. C. A., Chen, F., Reinig, F., Esper, J., Martinez del Castillo, E., et al. (2026). Runoff reconstructions and future projections indicate highly variable water supply from Pacific Rim water towers. AGU Advances, 7, e2025AV002053.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002053

—Alberto Montanari, Editor-in-Chief, AGU Advances

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In 2025, the Ocean Stored a Record-Breaking Amount of Heat, Again

Fri, 01/09/2026 - 14:23
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news that impacts science and scientists today.

The ocean soaked up more heat last year than in any year since modern measurements began around 1960, according to a new analysis published in Advances in Atmospheric Science

The world’s oceans absorb more than 90% of excess heat trapped in Earth’s atmosphere by greenhouse gas emissions. As heat in the atmosphere accumulates, heat stored in the ocean increases, too, making ocean heat a reliable indicator of long-term climate change. 

Ocean temperatures influence the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves, change atmospheric circulation, and govern global precipitation patterns. 

Scientists measure the ocean’s heat in different ways. One common metric is global annual mean sea surface temperature, the average temperature in the top few meters of ocean waters. Global sea surface temperature in 2025 was the third warmest ever recorded, at about 0.5°C (0.9°F) above the 1981-2010 average.

“Last year was a bonkers, crazy warming year.”

Another metric is ocean heat content, which measures the total heat energy stored in the world’s oceans. It’s measured in zettajoules: One zettajoule is equivalent to 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules. To measure heat content in 2025, the study’s authors assessed ocean observational data from the upper 2,000 meters of the ocean, where most of the heat is absorbed, from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. 

They found that in total, the ocean absorbed an additional 23 zettajoules of heat energy in 2025, breaking the ocean heat content record for the ninth consecutive year and marking the longest sequence of consecutive ocean heat content records ever recorded.

“Last year was a bonkers, crazy warming year,” John Abraham, a mechanical engineer at the University of St. Thomas and a coauthor of the new study, told Wired.

Twenty-three zettajoules in one year is equivalent to the energy of 12 Hiroshima bombs exploding in the ocean every second. It’s also a large increase over the 16 zettajoules of heat the ocean absorbed in 2024. The hottest areas of the ocean observed in 2025 were the tropical and South Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Ocean. 

 
Related

The results provide “direct evidence that the climate system is out of thermal equilibrium and accumulating heat,” the authors write.

A hotter ocean favors increased global precipitation and fuels more extreme tropical storms. In the past year, warmer global temperatures were likely partly responsible for the damaging effects of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and Cuba, heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan, severe flooding in the Central Mississippi Valley, and more.

“Ocean warming continues to exert profound impacts on the Earth system,” the authors wrote.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

9 January: This article was updated to correct the conversion of 23 zettajoules to Hiroshima bomb explosions.

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about science or scientists? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Managing Carbon Stocks Requires an Integrated View of the Carbon Cycle

Fri, 01/09/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi-scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites.

Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top-down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (less than 100 kilometers). Partial-column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column-integrated data (100–500 kilometers).

As described in Parazoo et al. [2025], the carbon cycle community envisions a carbon observation system leveraging GHG partial columns in the lower and upper troposphere to weave together information across scales from surface and satellite EO data, and integration of top-down / bottom-up analyses to link process understanding to global assessment. Such an actionable system that integrates existing and new EO data and inventories using advanced top-down and bottom-up analyses can help address the diverse and shifting needs of carbon management stakeholders.

Diverse carbon cycle science needs span multiple time (x-axis) and space (y-axis) scales across land (green shading), ocean (blue shading), and fossil (orange shading) sectors. Science needs addressed by the current and planned carbon flux and biomass Earth Observation (EO) program of record (PoR; purple and green, respectively) are depicted by the solid circle. Key EO science gaps exist at 1–100 kilometer spatial scale spanning sub-seasonal impacts of climate extremes and wildfires, interannual change and biomass, long term changes in growth, storage, and emissions, and carbon-climate feedbacks and tipping points (grey shading). Future GHG and biomass observing systems (e.g., dashed circles) will provide important benefits to carbon management efforts. Credit: Parazoo et al. [2025], Figure 1

Citation: Parazoo, N., Carroll, D., Abshire, J. B., Bar-On, Y. M., Birdsey, R. A., Bloom, A. A., et al. (2025). A U.S. scientific community vision for sustained earth observations of greenhouse gases to support local to global action. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV001914.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001914

—Don Wuebbles, Editor, AGU Advances

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