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Down to the bone

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 359-361, July 2024.

News at a glance

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 348-349, July 2024.

U.S. back in the race to forge unknown elements

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 350-351, July 2024.

Fully built water-hunting Moon rover killed by NASA

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 351-352, July 2024.

Burned-up satellites are tainting the atmosphere

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 354-355, July 2024.

Little-known virus surging in Latin America may harm fetuses

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 355-355, July 2024.

Can scientists help corals by killing starfish?

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 352-353, July 2024.

Neutrality’s effects on academic freedom

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 347-347, July 2024.

New Products

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 464-464, July 2024.

Harnessing science, policy, and law to deliver clean air

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 362-366, July 2024.

In Science Journals

Science - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 05:58
Science, Volume 385, Issue 6707, Page 402-404, July 2024.

Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 04:08
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.

Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 04:08
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.

Intra‐Continental Collision of the Tarim Basin and the Northern Tibetan Plateau

JGR–Solid Earth - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 01:48
Abstract

The seismic data recorded at 48 broadband stations on an 1,800-km-long linear array have been used to image the deep structure and deformation in the intra-continental collision between the Tarim Basin and the Northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP). Common Conversion Point (CCP) stacking imaging along the linear array and joint inversion of receiver function and surface wave dispersion defined the crustal and upper mantle structure, indicating that the Tarim block underthrusts the Altyn Tagh Range–Qaidam Basin. Whereas Moho is flattened, the lithospheric mantle beneath the Qaidam Basin has unusually low velocity, which is thought to be the consequence of the delamination in the lower crust and mantle lithosphere. Strong positive phase occurring at depths of 150–200 km on the CCP stacking imaging is likely to be associated to the remnant subducted oceanic lithospheric slab or the underthrusting Tianshan lithospheric slab beneath the collision zone. The removal of the Altyn Tagh Range–Qaidam Basin orogenic root may be due to convection-driven delamination underneath it and subsequent underthrusting of the Tarim block. The spatial variation of the SKS splitting is manifested as the large-scale pattern of lithospheric deformation and local abrupt changes, transitioning from pure shear on the NTP to simple shear in the Altyn Tagh Range. A comprehensive analysis of SKS splitting and GPS data reveals a simple shear pattern of vertical coherent deformation in the Altyn Tagh Range and its adjacent areas, which is evidence of the lithospheric shear zones.

A Novel Model of Hydraulic Aperture for Rough Single Fracture: Insights From Fluid Inertial and Fracture Geometry Effects

JGR–Solid Earth - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 01:44
Abstract

Previous studies pointed out that the hydraulic aperture (b h) is solely dependent on the geometric features of a fracture, independent of fluid inertia effects. Here we present an inertial hydraulic aperture (b ih) that considers the fluid inertial effect and fracture geometry effect by massive direct numerical simulations of fluid flow in real and artificial 3-D fractures. Simulation results indicate that with an increase in Reynolds number (Re), the evolution eddy volume ratio exhibits three distinct stages: stable stage (Re < 1), fluctuating stage (1 ≤ Re ≤ 10), and increasing to stable stage (Re > 10). These stages correspond to the transition of flow regimes from the viscous Darcy regime to the weak inertia regime, and further developing into the strong inertia regime. Among them, Re = 1 can be considered as the critical point for the onset of the non-Darcy flow. Furthermore, As Re increases, the evolution of b ih exhibits four stages influenced by fluid inertia effects and main flow width in the fracture: stability, slight increase, slight decrease, and rapid increase. Then, based on 892 sets of simulation results (Re ≥ 1), the expression of b ih was obtained using Gene Expression Programming. Compared to the four existing empirical models of b h, the present b ih exhibits the highest accuracy and the lowest errors (R 2 = 0.994, MAE = 0.008, RMSE = 0.013). Finally, the proposed b ih is further employed to modify the Forchheimer equation. This study enhances the understanding of hydraulic conductivity in 3-D rough single fractures.

Linear Array Double Difference Adjoint Ambient Noise Tomography of the Central Tanlu Fault Zone, Eastern China

JGR–Solid Earth - Thu, 07/25/2024 - 01:39
Abstract

In response to the need for high-resolution imaging of shallow crustal structure, we present a linear array double-difference (DD) adjoint tomography method, using DD Rayleigh wave traveltime measurements for enhanced spatial resolution. This method, validated through synthetic experiments, improves velocity anomaly detection with fewer iterations compared to absolute traveltime measurements. Applied to data from four linear seismic arrays in the central Tanlu fault zone (TLFZ) in the eastern China, our approach integrated both DD and absolute difference (AD) of adjoint traveltime measurements. We performed cluster analysis for data quality control, reducing data outliers and increasing reliability, particularly in suppressing cycle skipping for short-period measurements. The resulting high-resolution S-wave velocity profiles in the shallow crust well delineate geological structures, revealing a continuous low-velocity anomaly beneath the eastern branch of TLFZ. Our comparative analysis with the southern segment of TLFZ further highlights the segmented nature of the fault zone structure. These variations might suggest a dominant influence of deep magmatic processes due to destruction of the North China Craton. Our study links shallow structural features to deeper geodynamic activities, emphasizing the role of TLFZ as a critical tectonic boundary.

Characterizing Mesoscale Cellular Convection in Marine Cold Air Outbreaks With a Machine Learning Approach

JGR–Atmospheres - Wed, 07/24/2024 - 19:44
Abstract

During marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs), when cold polar air moves over warmer ocean, a well-recognized cloud pattern develops, with open or closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) at larger fetch over open water. The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment provided a comprehensive set of ground-based in situ and remote sensing observations of MCAOs at a coastal location in northern Norway. MCAO periods that unambiguously exhibit open or closed MCC are determined. Individual cells observed with a profiling Ka-band radar are identified using a watershed segmentation method. Using self-organizing maps (SOMs), these cells are then objectively classified based on the variability in their vertical structure. The SOM nodes contain some information about the location of the cell transect relative to the center of the MCC. This adds classification noise, requiring numerous cell transects to isolate cell dynamical information. The SOM-based classification shows that comparatively intense convection occurs only in open MCC. This convection undergoes an apparent lifecycle. Developing cells are associated with stronger updrafts, large spectrum width, larger amounts of liquid water, lower surface precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops than mature and weakening cells. The weakening of these cells is associated with the development of precipitation-induced cold pools. The SOM classification also reveals less intense convection, with a similar lifecycle. More stratiform vertical cloud structures with weak vertical motions are common during closed MCC periods and are separated into precipitating and non-precipitating stratiform cores. Convection is observed only occasionally in the closed MCC environment.

Earth's Alfvén Wings Driven by the April 2023 Coronal Mass Ejection

GRL - Wed, 07/24/2024 - 19:38
Abstract

We report a rare regime of Earth's magnetosphere interaction with sub-Alfvénic solar wind in which the windsock-like magnetosphere transforms into one with Alfvén wings. In the magnetic cloud of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on 24 April 2023, NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale mission distinguishes the following features: (a) unshocked and accelerated low-beta CME plasma coming directly against Earth's dayside magnetosphere; (b) dynamical wing filaments representing new channels of magnetic connection between the magnetosphere and foot points of the Sun's erupted flux rope; (c) cold CME ions observed with energized counter-streaming electrons, evidence of CME plasma captured due to by reconnection between magnetic-cloud and Alfvén-wing field lines. The reported measurements advance our knowledge of CME interaction with planetary magnetospheres, and open new opportunities to understand how sub-Alfvénic plasma flows impact astrophysical bodies such as Mercury, moons of Jupiter, and exoplanets close to their host stars.

A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Wed, 07/24/2024 - 19:09
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.

From rockfall source areas identification to susceptibility zonation: a proposed workflow tested in El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Wed, 07/24/2024 - 19:09
From rockfall source areas identification to susceptibility zonation: a proposed workflow tested in El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)
Roberto Sarro, Mauro Rossi, Paola Reichenbach, and Rosa María Mateos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-85,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study proposes a novel workflow to precisely model rockfalls. It compares three methods for defining source areas to enhance model accuracy. Identified areas are inputted into a runout model to identify vulnerable zones. A new approach generates probabilistic susceptibility maps using ECDFs. Validation strategies employing various inventory types are included. Comparing six susceptibility maps highlights the impact of source area definition on model precision.

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