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Climate change may make it harder to reduce smog in some regions

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 16:38
Global warming will likely hinder our future ability to control ground-level ozone, a harmful air pollutant that is a primary component of smog, according to a new MIT study.

Busy Hurricane Season Expected in 2025

EOS - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 15:56

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will likely have above-normal activity, according to the annual outlook produced by NOAA.

NOAA issues an Atlantic hurricane season outlook each May, using computer models that consider current climate and ocean conditions.

“Everything is in place for an above-average season.”

The agency estimates that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November, will have up to 19 named storms and up to 10 hurricanes. Three to five of those hurricanes are projected to reach major hurricane strength (categories 3, 4, and 5).

Between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic hurricane season featured seven hurricanes on average.

The report predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

“Everything is in place for an above-average season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, at a press conference held in Jefferson Parish, La. NOAA selected Jefferson Parish as the location for the announcement to commemorate the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures will fuel an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, according to a NOAA report. Credit: NOAA NWS

The above-average activity forecasted by NOAA will be fueled by above-average temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, forecasts for weak wind conditions, and the potential for higher activity of this year’s West African Monsoon.

The NOAA predictions align with predictions from other institutions, including Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research Group. CSU’s forecast predicted 9 hurricanes and 17 named storms for the 2025 season, with 4 of those storms predicted to reach major hurricane strength.

Scientists expect the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon that affects how heat is stored in the oceans, to remain in a neutral condition or transition to La Niña conditions this summer. Such conditions lead to decreased wind shear, which slightly favors hurricane formation.

In 2024, El Niño conditions, along with human-caused climate change, fueled a spike in ocean temperatures that caused a destructive Atlantic hurricane season. Warming oceans fuel stronger hurricanes that bring more heavy rainfall and higher storm surge when they make landfall.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.”

The odds of El Niño developing this year as the hurricane season peaks are low—less than 15%, according to the latest NOAA prediction. While El Niño conditions tend to increase ocean temperatures, El Niño also creates wind shear that breaks up weather patterns, hindering hurricane intensification. If El Niño conditions do return by the fall, the likelihood of hurricane formation could drop. CSU plans to release an updated forecast on 11 June.

At the press conference, NOAA officials asked those in hurricane-prone areas to prepare for the busy season. “A community that is more informed and prepared will have a greater opportunity to rebound quickly from weather and climate related events,” said Cynthia Lee Sheng, president of Jefferson Parish.

Each year, the World Meteorological Organization selects a list of names for the season’s tropical storms. Credit: NOAA NWS

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell, a meteorologist at CSU and author of the CSU outlook, in a statement.

The above-average season coincides with unprecedented staffing shortages due to layoffs and staff buyouts at NOAA and its National Weather Service (NWS), which issues hurricane and flood warnings and provides critical emergency information during storms. In a 2 May open letter, five former NWS directors said the agency “will have an impossible task” trying to continue its current level of services amid staff and funding cuts.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2025), Busy hurricane season expected in 2025, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250200. Published on 22 May 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Pungent Penguin Poop Produces Polar Cloud Particles

EOS - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 15:01

Ammonia released from penguin poop helps produce cloud-seeding aerosols in Antarctica, which can affect local climate by increasing cloud formation. The discovery came when scientists measured air downwind of two colonies of Adélie penguins on the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula.

Penguin poop emitted 100–1,000 times baseline levels of ammonia. New aerosol particles formed when that ammonia mixed with sulfur compounds from marine phytoplankton. The research was published in Communications Earth & Environment.

“This shows a deep connection between the natural ecosystem emissions and atmospheric processes, where emissions from both local seabird and penguin colonies and marine microbiology have a synergistic role that can impact clouds and climate,” said Matthew Boyer, a doctoral student in atmospheric science at the University of Helsinki in Finland and lead author of the study.

Strong Whiffs of Ammonia

Although only trace amounts of ammonia exist in Earth’s atmosphere, scientists have found that when it mixes with certain sulfur compounds it creates ultrafine particles (<0.1 micrometer in size). Those aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei.

“Aerosol particles are necessary for cloud formation; liquid water will not condense to form cloud droplets without the presence of aerosol particles,” Boyer explained.

The presence of these aerosols is especially important in pristine environments such as Antarctica that have low background levels of cloud-forming particles.

“The new particle formation process doesn’t strictly need ammonia to proceed, but ammonia boosts the rate of the process considerably—up to 1,000 times faster,” Boyer said. Gases emitted from natural sources such as penguins and the ocean are an important source of aerosols in the region, he added.

But the extremely low concentrations of gaseous ammonia, combined with the remoteness of Antarctica, have made understanding this cloud formation pathway challenging.

To tackle this problem, the researchers set up atmospheric samplers on the ground near Argentina’s Marambio Station, located on Seymour Island near the northernmost tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Two large colonies of Adélie penguins nested a few kilometers away, one with about 30,000 breeding pairs and another with roughly 15,000 penguin pairs, as well as 800 cormorant pairs.

Researchers put sensors near the main buildings at Marambio Station on Seymour Island. Credit: Lauriane Quéléver

From 10 January to 20 March 2023 (during austral summer), the team measured concentrations of ammonia, fine aerosol particles, and larger cloud condensation nuclei, as well as relative abundance of certain elements, cloud droplet distribution, and other atmospheric properties. By late February, the penguins left their breeding grounds and traveled to their wintering site, enabling the researchers to analyze the atmosphere with and without the birds present.

When wind blew air from the nesting grounds to the monitoring station, the team found that the penguin colonies emitted up to 13.5 parts per billion of ammonia, more than 1,000 times more than background levels without poop. However, when winds blew in from the sea, the Southern Ocean was a “negligible” source of ammonia.

“The footprint of ammonia emissions from penguins may cover more area of coastal Antarctica than indicated by the location of their colonies alone.”

Even after the penguins migrated, the poop they left behind continued to elevate ammonia to 100 times higher than background levels, which was the most surprising discovery for Boyer.

“This means that the footprint of ammonia emissions from penguins may cover more area of coastal Antarctica than indicated by the location of their colonies alone,” he said.

The team found that 30 times more aerosol particles formed when gaseous ammonia mixed with sulfuric gases released by marine phytoplankton. When that combination then mixed with dimethylamine gas, also emitted by penguin poop, aerosol formation increased 10,000-fold.

Gaseous ammonia lasts only a few hours in the atmosphere, but the aerosol particles it creates can survive for several days. Under the right wind conditions, those particles could travel out over the Southern Ocean and generate clouds where cloud condensation nuclei sources are limited.

Climate change threatens the survival of Adélie penguins, but the penguins also help shape their local atmosphere and climate. Credit: Matthew Boyer

The new results align with past research that examined the impact of Arctic seabirds on atmosphere and climate. They also agree with past laboratory and modeling studies of Antarctic cloud formation, which have been considered more reliable in the past than in situ measurements.

“Measuring ammonia on its own under normal circumstances can be tricky,” said Greg Wentworth, an atmospheric scientist with the government of Alberta in Canada who was not involved with the new research. “To do all the sophisticated measurements required to tease apart the details of new particle formation is remarkable, especially since they did this at the ends of the Earth!”

Penguin Feedback Loops

“How remarkable is it that emissions from penguin poop and phytoplankton can kick-start chemistry in the atmosphere that can alter clouds and affect climate?”

“This study provides the most compelling evidence to date that ammonia and sulfur compounds…are an important source of cloud condensation nuclei during summertime in Antarctica,” Wentworth added. “How remarkable is it that emissions from penguin poop and phytoplankton can kick-start chemistry in the atmosphere that can alter clouds and affect climate?”

The polar regions are experiencing dangerous levels of warming, and more cloud cover can help cool things down…sometimes. Higher concentrations of aerosol particles tend to create thicker, low-atmosphere clouds that are more reflective and can cool the surface, Boyer said. Thinner clouds high in the atmosphere tend to trap heat and warm the surface.

Understanding whether seabirds generate aerosols at a consistent, high-enough rate to cool local climate would require more atmospheric monitoring and climate modeling, he added.

A connection between penguins and their environment means that when one is threatened, both feel the impacts. As climate change warms the polar regions and endangers the species that live there, the loss of those species could reduce cloud cover and further accelerate warming.

“It’s important to understand how ecosystems, especially sensitive ones in remote regions, will respond to climate change,” Wentworth said. “It’s doubly important to understand those changes when components of those ecosystems also impact climate change.”

“The more we understand about specific processes that impact ecosystems and climate change, the better we can predict and adapt to change,” Wentworth said.

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: Cartier, K. M. S. (2025), Pungent penguin poop produces polar cloud particles, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250201. Published on 22 May 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

AI is good at weather forecasting. Can it predict freak weather events?

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 14:58
Increasingly powerful AI models can make short-term weather forecasts with surprising accuracy. But neural networks only predict based on patterns from the past—what happens when the weather does something that's unprecedented in recorded history?

House Passes Megabill Slashing Environmental Protections

EOS - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 14:08
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

Early on 22 May, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a massive GOP-backed bill that seeks to push forward President Trump’s domestic policy agenda. Within the bill’s 1,082 pages are sweeping repeals of regulations that defend the environment, mitigate climate change, and protect public health.

 
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In their place, the bill promotes fossil fuel production and burning; scales back safety net programs such as Medicaid and supplemental nutrition and assistance program (SNAP); rescinds funds and blocks plans for natural resource management; reforms student loan lending and repayment; advances aggressive anti-immigration policies; and funds tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy.

Some of the Earth science-related provisions in the bill would:

  • Rescind unused funding allocated to maintain facilities for NOAA and the National Marine Sanctuary;
  • Bring an earlier end to clean energy tax credits and subsidies provided under the Inflation Reduction Act;
  • Repeal rules related to vehicles’ greenhouse gas emissions and vehicle fuel economy standards;
  • Rescind Clean Air Act funds related to environmental and climate justice, as well as other funds meant to reduce or regulate greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality at schools, and require businesses to publicly report their carbon footprints;
  • Rescind funds that would have invested in coastal communities to build climate resilience, and that helped U.S. Forest Service and the National Park Service protect federal land;
  • Interfere with several states’ plans to manage their own resources, including in Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, and along the Colorado River;
  • Enhance timber production and logging on National Forest Service lands and allow mineral mining in Alaska to move forward.

The bill passed by a 1-vote margin in the House (215-214). It now moves to the Senate, where it is expected to face additional opposition from the Democratic Party and GOP deficit hawks.

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Submerged in Science

EOS - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 13:13

Eos is welcoming June (that’s National Ocean Month in the United States) with a rhyming tradition of something old, something new, something borrowed, and something blue.

Our “something old” is the spectacularly upgraded, 60-years-young Alvin, probably the world’s most famous human-occupied deep-sea submersible. Alvin can now dive to 6,500 meters—a full 2,000 meters more than its previous limit—and explore 99% of the seafloor. Read all about it in “An Upgraded Alvin Puts New Ocean Depths Within Reach.”

“Something new” is the two-vehicle fleet of midsize remotely operated vehicles (mROVs) that will join the U.S. Academic Research Fleet. The mROVs will “fill the niche between large, work-class vehicles such as Jason and small vehicles used primarily for observation.”

“Something borrowed” is time on the JOIDES Resolution (JR), the legendary research vessel that retired last year. In this month’s opinion, three early-career researchers share what they learned, from sediment cores to transdisciplinary collaboration, as part of the JR’s final voyage.

Something blue? That’s the deep blue sea, of course. Dive in!

—Caryl-Sue Micalizio, Editor in Chief

Citation: Micalizio, C.-S. (2025), Submerged in science, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250199. Published on 22 June 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Creep Cavitation May Lead to Earthquake Nucleation

EOS - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Large earthquakes generally nucleate at the base of seismogenic crust, between 10 and 15 kilometers deep, where the interplay between brittle and plastic deformation is complex due to the combined effects of pressure and temperature at these depths. In consequence, how earthquake fractures may nucleate under these conditions remains relatively enigmatic.

Yeo et al. [2025] present evidence of the formation of nanocavities under these conditions from the geological rock record. The studied rocks are ultramylonites, i.e. rocks of ultrafine grainsize, brought back from an outcrop of the Median Tectonic Line, the largest on‐land fault (>1,000 kilometers along strike) of Japan. Ultramylonites generally deform via intracrystalline plasticity and grain boundary sliding. Yet, the ones presented by the authors have also kept records of the formation of nanoscale cavities, formed at the base of seismogenic zone. When the density of these cavities becomes critical, they may coalesce leading to the formation of a ductile fracture, a phenomenon well-known in metallurgy. The authors observe that these ductile fractures, generally filled with secondary hydrous minerals such as chlorite, were ubiquitous along the entire length of the ultramylonite exposure, spanning over 7 kilometers.

Ductile fractures, observed along one the world’s most active shear zone highlight the importance of fracturing due to ductile deformation in the source region of large earthquakes. In such way, nano-scale cavities generated 15 kilometers deep may well be the initial nucleation point of large continental earthquakes.

Citation: Yeo, T., Shigematsu, N., Wallis, S. R., Kobayashi, K., Zhang, C., & Ujiie, K. (2025). Evolution of nanocavities to ductile fractures in crustal-scale faults at the base of the seismogenic zone. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130, e2024JB029868. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB029868

—Alexandre Schubnel, Editor-in-Chief, JGR: Solid Earth

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Paradigm for global gyrokinetic turbulence

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 10:00

Author(s): J. Candy, A. Dudkovskaia, and E. A. Belli

Using a wave-number-advection algorithm, we describe a method to add global profile curvature terms to the local gyrokinetic equations. This approach enables a high-precision global simulation capability without sacrificing the efficiency and spectral accuracy of local simulations. Preliminary numer…


[Phys. Rev. E 111, L053201] Published Thu May 22, 2025

The 21 May 2025 quick clay landslide at Sainte Monique in Quebec, Canada

EOS - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 07:04

The Landslide Blog is written by Dave Petley, who is widely recognized as a world leader in the study and management of landslides.

On 21 May 2025, a family lost their home to a quick clay landslide in Sainte Monique, to the northeast of Montreal in Quebec, Canada.

Radio-Canada Info has posted to Youtube some excellent drone footage of the aftermath of this landslide:-

Meanwhile, The Globe and Mail has a good account of the event:

“Andre Lemire said he was woken up early Wednesday morning by his partner, who had heard ominous noises outside the farm where they live in Sainte-Monique, Que.

“They left the home, and when he looked back he saw the ground open up, swallowing up the land and his neighbour’s house.

“The path disappeared behind me,” Lemire said in an interview.

“A major landslide swept away a home and part of a road northeast of Montreal at around 6 a.m. Wednesday, leaving a gaping hole in the land but no injuries. The landslide – estimated at 760 metres long and 150 wide – was described by an expert as one of the biggest the province has seen in recent years.”

This is a classic quick clay landslide, a well-known hazard in this part of Canada. The location of the landslide is [46.13890, -72.49700] – this is a Google Earth image of the site:-

Google Earth image of the site of the 21 May 2025 quick clay landslide at Sainte Monique in Canada.

It is interesting that the location is at the apex of the river meander, where erosion is intense. Google Street View shows that this is an area with a low slope angle, which is normal in quick clay landslides:-

Google Street View image of the site of the 21 May 2025 quick clay landslide at Sainte Monique in Canada.

The dramatic nature of landslides of this type can be seen in this still from the Youtube footage:-

A drone image of the site of the 21 May 2025 quick clay landslide at Sainte Monique in Canada. Still from a drobe video posted to Youtube by Radio-Canada Info.

It is likely that this area sits on the Leda Clay, a material that is prone to failures of this type. This landslide is reminiscent of the 10 May 2010 landslide at St Jude, which tragically killed four people. It is fortunate that at Sainte Monique the owners of the house were able to escape.

Thanks to loyal readers George Heah and Maurice Lamontagne for highlighting this event to me.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Frequency-Dependent Seismic Attenuation and Velocity Dispersion in Crystalline Rocks: Insights from the Grimsel Test Site

Geophysical Journal International - Thu, 05/22/2025 - 00:00
SummaryCharacterizing the hydraulic and geomechanical behavior of crystalline rocks is of importance for a wide range of geological and engineering applications. Geophysical methods in general and seismic techniques in particular are extensively used for these purposes due to their cost-effective and non-invasive nature. In this study, we combine legacy seismic observations to analyze the seismic attenuation and velocity characteristics in macroscopically intact regions of the granodiorite hosting the underground Grimsel Test Site in the central Swiss Alps across a wide frequency range. By focusing on data from the intact rock volumes we aim to assess the importance of viscoelastic effects in the crystalline host rock. Our results show consistent frequency-dependent characteristics of the seismic velocity and attenuation. We illustrate that it is possible to fit a microcrack-related wave-induced fluid flow (WIFF) model to the data over the entire frequency spectrum under examination extending from the Hertz to the Megahertz range. Utilizing complementary pressure-dependent ultrasonic measurements, we infer microcrack properties that validate the key parameters of the proposed WIFF model. These findings deepen our understanding of dispersion and attenuation mechanisms at the microscopic scale in crystalline environments, which is critical for a coherent analysis and integration of data from different seismic techniques as well as for the identification of dispersion and attenuation effects related to macroscale heterogeneities, such as fractures and faults.

SWOT satellite spots large-scale river waves for first time

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 20:46
In a first, researchers from NASA and Virginia Tech have used satellite data to measure the height and speed of potentially hazardous flood waves traveling down U.S. rivers. The three waves they tracked were likely caused by extreme rainfall and by a loosened ice jam.

Extreme wet and dry years drive dramatic shifts in Lake Tahoe's underwater UV light

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 20:40
Lake Tahoe is experiencing large-scale shifts in ultraviolet radiation (UV) as climate change intensifies wet and dry extremes in the region. That is according to a study led by the University of California, Davis's Tahoe Environmental Research Center and co-leading collaborator Miami University in Ohio.

Novel AI methodology improves gully erosion prediction and interpretation

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 19:27
Gully erosion is the most severe form of soil erosion, and it can seriously impact agricultural fields, contributing to sediment loss and severe nutrient runoff into waterways. Gullies can be triggered suddenly by a single heavy rainfall event, creating deep channels that are difficult to rehabilitate even with heavy machinery. Accurately predicting where gully erosion is likely to occur allows agricultural producers and land managers to target their conservation efforts more effectively.

How deep-Earth carbon movements shape continents and diamonds

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 19:16
A new study published in Science Advances by researchers from the Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (GIG-CAS), along with international collaborators, reveals that deeply subducted carbonates can cause significant variations in the redox states of Earth's mantle. This process influences the formation of sublithospheric diamonds and plays a role in the long-term evolution of cratons—ancient stable parts of the continental lithosphere.

Volcanic eruptions trigger ice formation in clouds

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 18:11
When a volcano erupts, it can spew ash high into the atmosphere—inserting aerosols right where clouds typically form. How exactly these aerosols impact cloud formation has long been a mystery to atmospheric scientists.

When lightning strikes: Gamma-ray burst unleashed by lightning collision

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 18:00
Lightning is a phenomenon that has fascinated humanity since time immemorial, providing a stark example of the power and unpredictability of the natural world. Although the study of lightning can be challenging, scientists have, in recent years, made great strides in developing our understanding of this extreme spectacle.

Combining afforestation and oceanic CO₂ removal could reduce pressure on land areas

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 17:20
To reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, we not only have to reduce CO2 emissions, but also remove CO₂ from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) on a large scale. This can involve both land- and ocean-based methods.

Boulder washed inland a sign of Pacific tsunami history

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 16:21
Analysis has shown a boulder weighing almost 1,200 tons in Tonga is one of the largest known wave-transported rocks in the world, providing new insights into the Pacific region's history and risk of tsunamis.

River alkalinization and ocean acidification face off in coastal waters

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 16:20
The Chesapeake Bay is the continental United States' largest estuary, spanning approximately 320 kilometers (200 miles) between northeastern Maryland and Virginia Beach. Like many coastal ecosystems, its water chemistry is affected by agricultural runoff, chemical weathering, and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Fool's gold: A hidden climate stabilizer

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/21/2025 - 14:23
On our planet, the cycle and balance of carbon from reservoir to reservoir is a matter of life or death. Carbon moves from the atmosphere to the ocean, to carbon-based life forms, to rocks or sediments, and it can be tied up in any of these reservoirs throughout the process.

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