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Simulations predict more supercell thunderstorms in the Alps as climate warms

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 19:31
Supercell thunderstorms are among the most impactful weather events in Europe. They typically occur in summer and are characterized by a rotating updraft of warm, humid air that brings strong winds, large hail and heavy rain. The impact is significant and often leads to property damage, agricultural losses, traffic chaos and even threats to human safety.

Dynamic time warping-based framework traces fine particulate matter pollution cross-regional movement in China

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 19:06
A new study led by researchers from the Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has for the first time mapped the long-term, large-scale transport pathways of PM2.5 pollution across China spanning from 2000 to 2021, providing scientific support for refining national air quality management strategies.

Droughts making air deadlier in Latin America, study finds

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 18:25
When water is below normal levels in Latin America, it's not just farmers and consumers who suffer. A new study finds that air pollution spikes, and thousands of people die prematurely as a result.

Himalayan flash floods: Climate change worsens them, but poor planning makes them deadly

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 17:09
On August 5, a cloudburst near the Kheer Ganga river triggered a flash flood that tore through Dharali, a village in the Indian Himalayas. Within minutes, the river swelled with water, mud and debris, sweeping away homes, roads and lives.

Changing climate pushed islanders to 'chase the rain' across the Pacific 1,000 years ago

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 16:50
Research by the University of Southampton and University of East Anglia (UEA) shows a major shift in South Pacific climate conditions—beginning around 1,000 years ago—that may have pushed people to settle further east and move away from increasingly drier conditions in the west.

Geoscientists prove for the first time that microplastics are stored in forests

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 16:41
Microplastics and nanoplastics are not only polluting our oceans, rivers and fields, but also our forests, according to geoscientists at TU Darmstadt. Their research is published in Communications Earth & Environment.

We drilled deep under the sea to learn more about mega-earthquakes and tsunamis

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 16:19
Far beneath the waves, down in the depths of the Japan Trench—seven kilometers below sea level—lie hidden clues about some of the most powerful earthquakes and tsunamis on Earth.

How Iceland's fiery mantle plume scattered ancient volcanoes across the North Atlantic

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 16:15
What do the rumblings of Iceland's volcanoes have in common with the now peaceful volcanic islands off Scotland's western coast and the spectacular basalt columns of the Giant's Causeway in Northern Ireland?

Turbulent flights to continue as warming world shakes skies

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 15:40
The atmosphere will become more turbulent in future decades as climate change makes the air less stable.

FEMA Puts Dissenting Staff on Indefinite Leave

EOS - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 14:52
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

Update 27 August 2025: This article has been updated to reflect newly released numbers of staff placed on leave.

On 25 August, 182 current and former staff members of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) signed a declaration opposing the Trump administration’s actions to obstruct FEMA’s mission to provide relief and recovery assistance after natural disasters. The following evening, 36 FEMA staff, all signatories of that Katrina Declaration, were placed on indefinite administrative leave.

Colette Delawalla, the executive director of Stand Up for Science, an advocacy group that helped publicize the letter, told the New York Times that the move appeared to be an act of retaliation.

“Once again, we are seeing the federal government retaliate against our civil servants for whistleblowing—which is both illegal and a deep betrayal of the most dedicated among us,” she said.

This is illegal, plain and simple. FEMA workers are doing their duty as public servants by blowing the whistle on the dismantling of their agency — and whistleblowing is protected under federal law.

Stand Up for Science! (@standupforscience.bsky.social) 2025-08-27T01:25:29.308Z

Employees were told the leave was effective immediately. Stand Up for Science and the Washington Post both confirmed that two of those suspended were taken off duty from recovery work at the site of Texas floods that killed at least 135 people in early July.

The notice of placement on administrative leave stated that the decision “is not a disciplinary action and is not intended to be punitive.” However, FEMA spokesperson Daniel Llargues said in a statement that “It is not surprising that some of the same bureaucrats who presided over decades of inefficiency are now objecting to reform.”

The staff who were placed on administrative leave will receive pay and benefits but do no work.

FEMA staff sent their letter of dissent to Congress 20 years after of Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest natural disasters in modern U.S. history. Experts have long argued that many more people died than should have because of human failures in disaster planning and implementation. Twenty years later, FEMA staff have warned that recent changes to the organization’s structure and procedures put the nation at risk for future Katrina-like disasters.

 
Related

The letter specifically calls out reductions in disaster workforce, failure to appoint a Senate-confirmed FEMA administrator, elimination or reduction of risk reduction programs, interference with preparedness programs, censorship of climate science, and new policies regarding spending that have already delayed FEMA deployment to disaster areas.

The Katrina Declaration followed similar letters of dissent, also facilitated by Stand Up for Science, from the National Institutes of Health, NSF, EPA, and NASA. Not long after EPA staff sent their letter of dissent, 144 signatories were placed on administrative leave.

Only 36 individuals signed their names to the Katrina Declaration, while the rest chose to remain anonymous, likely in fear of similar retribution. (More people have signed the letter since 25 August, all anonymously.) The fears seem to have been well-founded: All those who signed their name were placed on leave.

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Asian plateaus' uplift drives climate shifts and shapes biodiversity patterns, study finds

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 14:45
The uplift and outward growth of Asia's three great plateaus is a major driver of changes in the Asian landscape and biodiversity, according to a new study led by Prof. Wang Wei from the Institute of Botany of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IBCAS).

'Peak water security' crisis leaves millions across US at risk, research finds

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 14:45
As the United States passes a tipping point in water security, new research reveals that millions of Americans now face a growing crisis in accessing clean, affordable water.

Mapping the heart of volcanoes when they wake up

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 13:33
Volcanic eruptions can have dramatic consequences. But how can we anticipate this phenomenon, which unfolds up to tens of kilometers beneath the surface?

Machine Learning Simulates 1,000 Years of Climate

EOS - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 13:19
Source: AGU Advances

In recent years, scientists have found that machine learning–based weather models can make weather predictions more quickly using less energy than traditional models. However, many of those models are unable to accurately predict the weather more than 15 days into the future and begin to simulate unrealistic weather by day 60.

The Deep Learning Earth System Model, or DLESyM, is built on two neural networks that run in parallel: One simulates the ocean while the other simulates the atmosphere. During model runs, predictions for the state of the ocean update every four model days. Because atmospheric conditions evolve more rapidly, predictions for the atmosphere update every 12 model hours.

The model’s creators, Cresswell-Clay et al., found that DLESyM closely matches the past observed climate and creates accurate short-term forecasts. Using Earth’s current climate as a baseline, it can also accurately simulate climate and interannual variability over 1,000-year periods in less than 12 hours of computing time. It generally equals or outperforms models based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, or CMIP6, which is widely used in computational climate research today.

The DLESyM model outperformed CMIP6 models in replicating tropical cyclones and Indian summer monsoons. It captured the frequency and spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric “blocking” events, which can cause extreme weather, at least as well as CMIP6 models. In addition, the storms the model predicts are also highly realistic. For instance, the structure of a nor’easter generated at the end of a 1,000-year simulation (in 3016) is very similar to a nor’easter observed in 2018.

However, both the new model and CMIP6 models poorly represent Atlantic hurricane climatology. Also, DLESyM is less accurate than other machine learning models for medium-range forecasts, or those made up to about 15 days into the future. Crucially, the DLESyM model only conducts simulations of the current climate, meaning it does not account for anthropogenic climate change.

The key benefit of the DLESyM model, the authors suggest, is that it uses far less computational power than running a CMIP6 model, making it more accessible than traditional models. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001706, 2025)

—Madeline Reinsel, Science Writer

Citation: Reinsel, M. (2025), Machine learning simulates 1,000 years of climate, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250318. Published on 27 August 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Scientists Track Down Fresh Boulder Falls on the Moon

EOS - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 13:17

As a boulder rolls down a cliff slope on the Moon, it kicks up lunar dust, leaving behind a telltale herringbone pattern of ejecta.

In a recent study, for the first time, scientists geolocated and dated evidence of such boulder falls. They identified 245 fresh tracks created as boulders rolled, bounced, and slid down crater walls.

“For a long time, there was this belief that the Moon is geologically dead.…Our study shows that boulders with sizes ranging [from] tens to hundreds of meters and [with] weights in tons have moved from their places over time,” said Sivaprahasam Vijayan, the study’s lead author and an associate professor at the Physical Research Laboratory in Ahmedabad, India. “It is equally important to know how recent these boulder fall events are to understand the time periods when the geological agents were active.”

Tracking Boulder Falls

As lunar boulders bounce, they scoop up bright, unweathered subsurface material and bring it to the surface. As a result, fresh boulder fall tracks appear brighter than older ones.

“One can identify a boulder fall to be a recent one considering the boulder fall ejecta,” said Senthil Kumar Perumal, principal scientist with the Planetary Sciences Group at the National Geophysical Research Institute in Hyderabad, India, who was not involved in the new study.

The craters were found to be around 400,000 years old—which means the BFE tracks are more recent.

To identify relatively recent boulder tracks, Vijayan and his colleagues first manually searched thousands of images of the lunar surface between 40°S and 40°N. At these latitudes, the Sun makes the bright boulder tracks distinguishable from the rest of the lunar surface. Once they identified a track, the researchers studied corresponding images taken by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Narrow Angle Camera between 2009 and 2022.

Next, scientists estimated the age of the tracks by studying regions with both boulder fall ejecta (BFE) and distinct impact ejecta blankets. (Such blankets, nicknamed the “lunar equivalent of fossils,” have long been used to estimate the age of impact events.) The craters analyzed by Vijayan and his colleagues were found to be around 400,000 years old—which means the BFE tracks are more recent.

Finally, the scientists identified possible seismic faults or impact craters nearby that could have triggered the boulder falls.

Mapping the Moon

The new geological map of boulder falls, published in Icarus, highlights seismically active spots and fresh impact sites on the Moon. Researchers say these regions could be potential landing sites for future lunar missions focused on recent surface and subsurface activity.

The study authors plan to integrate artificial intelligence methods into the next iteration of their work, but ultimately, Vijayan said, “the next step is to more precisely determine whether the cause [of a fall] is endogenic or exogenic, which can be achieved by deploying additional seismometers in upcoming missions.”

Kumar concurred. “We need to have a large network of seismometers covering the entire [Moon] that monitors seismic activity continuously for several decades,” he said.

—Unnati Ashar, Science Writer

Citation: Ashar, U. (2025), Scientists track down fresh boulder falls on the Moon, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250314. Published on 27 August 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Snow algae accelerate Antarctic ice shelf melting, research discovers

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 12:42
A new study has revealed that tiny organisms called snow algae are significantly contributing to the surface melting on Antarctic ice shelves. The discovery could have far-reaching implications for global sea level rise.

New AI approach sharpens picture of carbon export in the Southern Ocean

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 12:23
The Southern Ocean plays an important role in global climate and carbon cycling. Understanding carbon export in this region is critical for modeling Earth's changing climate and evaluating potential ocean-based climate interventions.

Equatorial Deep Ocean Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

EOS - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant weather system in the tropics. It lasts several weeks and changes rainfall, cloudiness, and winds across the tropics. The MJO is well known for triggering an extratropical and global atmospheric circulation response. And recently, several case studies have been conducted on a deeper ocean response to the MJO.

Using 18 years of output from a high-resolution ocean reanalysis product (GLORYS12) largely constrained by Argo data, Robbins et al. [2025] discover intraseasonal anomalies (20-200 days) signals in currents, temperature, and salinity in the tropical oceans down to at least 2,000 meters. They describe that such deep-penetrating structure are equatorial Kelvin waves, which are forced by the MJO in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans. This is one of the first studies to examine the impact of the MJO on the deep ocean and will be beneficial for future investigations into deep-ocean changes.

Citation: Robbins, C., Matthews, A. J., Hall, R. A., Webber, B. G. M., & Heywood, K. J. (2025). The equatorial deep ocean structure associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation from an ocean reanalysis. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 130, e2025JC022457.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022457

—Xin Wang, Editor, JGR: Oceans

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Fatal landslides in June 2025

EOS - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 07:43

In June 2025, I recorded 51 fatal landslides worldwide, resulting in 479 fatalities. The number of fatal landslides is significantly above the long term mean.

Yesterday, I provided an update on fatal landslides that occurred in May 2025. This post is a follow-up, providing the data for June.

As always, allow me to remind you that this is a dataset on landslides that cause loss of life, following the methodology of Froude and Petley (2018). At this point, the monthly data is provisional.

The headline is that I recorded 51 landslides over the course of the month, claiming 479 lives. Note that the landslide total is lower than for May (n=66), which is a little unusual. However, 51 landslides is still substantially higher than the 2004-2016 mean (n=40.8), whilst the number of fatalities is also below the mean (n=746).

So, this is the monthly total graph to the end of June 2025:-

The number of fatal landslides to the end of June 2025 by month.

Plotting the data by pentad to the end of pentad 36 (29 June), the trend looks like this (with the exceptional year of 2024 plus the 2004-2016 mean for comparison):-

The number of fatal landslides to 29 June 2025, displayed in pentads. For comparison, the long term mean (2004 to 2016) and the exceptional year of 2024 are also shown.

Through to about 10 June, the trend for 2025 very closely matched that of 2024. However, by the end of the month a significant difference had emerged, with the landslide rate this year being somewhat lower. The data for July and August will start to tell us whether this is a trend.

So, what lies behind a monthly figure that is above the long term average but below the exceptional year for 2024? The Copernicus surface air temperature data for June 2025 notes the following:-

“June 2025 was 0.47°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for June with an absolute surface air temperature of 16.46°C. [It was the] third-warmest June on record, 0.20°C cooler than the warmest June in 2024, and 0.06°C cooler than 2023, the second warmest.”

Thus, if the hypothesis that the landslide numbers are driven in part by atmospheric temperature, the lower total than in 2024 is perhaps unsurprising.

Reference

Froude M.J. and Petley D.N. 2018. Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 18, 2161-2181. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Stepwise Iterative Enhanced De-striping of GRACE/GRACE-FO Data for Improving Global Water Mass Estimation

Geophysical Journal International - Wed, 08/27/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe time-variable gravity field obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment/Follow-On (GRACE/GRACE-FO) satellites has been successfully used to detect global water mass changes over the past two decades. However, the north-south striping noise in the GRACE spherical harmonic (SH) solution limits their effectiveness. Efforts to suppress this noise and achieve a higher signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) continue with various product releases, but there is still a great need for improvement. This study presents a new de-striping method called GBVMD, which employs a stepwise enhancing framework combining Gaussian filtering with bi-dimensional variational mode decomposition (BVMD). The methodological breakthrough comes from two innovations: First, it employs adaptive scale decomposition by dynamically adjusting the radius of the Gaussian filter in conjunction with BVMD reconstruction, effectively reducing noise across multiple scales. Second, it features a dual-decision optimization strategy that integrates SNR-driven mode reconstruction and iterative termination, thereby maximizing the SNR while adapting to the specific characteristics of the noise. In simulations, the GBVMD outperforms the five other filters in reducing noise and keeping signals, achieving an improvement in SNR by at least 19%, and reductions in root mean square error and mean absolute error by at least 14% and 11%, respectively. When applied to GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 SH solutions, GBVMD led to a higher SNR with an improvement of at least 12% compared to other filters. The GBVMD-filtered SH data showed strong consistency with three Level-3 Mascon solutions across 183 river basins. Comparable results were also found in polar regions, validated by altimetry data. Furthermore, we effectively corrected the leakage errors for two examples in the Caspian Sea and the Great Lakes, demonstrating the advantages of GBVMD-filtered SH over the Mascons for signal reanalysis. We recommend GBVMD for further applications, especially in specific regions such as ocean areas and other satellite missions requiring similar de-striping approaches.

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