Abstract
Regional weather variability and extremes over Europe are strongly linked to variations in the North Atlantic jet stream, especially during the winter season. Projections of the evolution of the North Atlantic jet are essential for estimating the regional impacts of climate change. Therefore, separating forced trends in the North Atlantic jet from its natural variability is an extremely relevant task. Here, a deep learning based method, the Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder (LLAE), is used for this purpose on an ensemble of fully-coupled climate simulations. The LLAE is based on a variational autoencoder and an additional linear component. The model uses detrended temperature and geopotential to predict the component of the zonal wind associated with natural variability. The residual between this prediction and the original wind field is interpreted as the forced component of the jet. The method is first tested for the geostrophic wind for which the forced trend can be obtained analytically from the difference between geostrophic wind computed from detrended and full geopotential. Despite the large variability of the total trends, the LLAE is shown to be effective in extracting the forced component of the trend for each individual ensemble member in both geostrophic and full wind fields. The LLAE-derived forced trend shows an increase in the upper-level zonal wind speed along a southwest–northeast oriented band over the ocean and a jet extension toward Europe. These are common characteristics over different periods and show some similarities to the upper-level zonal wind speed trend obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis.
Abstract
In ensemble weather forecast, tropical cyclone (TC) tracks sometimes group together into trajectories parting away from each other. The goal of this study is to propose an objective method, based on a robust clustering approach, to detect such separation scenarios in the Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for three TCs: “Dolphin” (2020), “Nepartak” (2021), and “Meari” (2022). Taking advantage of the independence of the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm to the prior choice of the number of clusters, we first describe an objective way to calculate the aggregation distance, by searching the most frequent Euclidean distance between all the tracks. The clustering is then applied to the forecasted tracks, for each initialization time of MEPS (every 6 hr). Separation scenarios exist when the number of clusters is greater than one.
Abstract
Metal complexation and speciation is the primary process responsible for metal transport and circulation in hydrothermal systems, during which stable and soluble metal complexes play a pivotal role. Here, we investigate the speciation of Os and the thermodynamic stability of Os(IV)-Cl complexes in chloride-bearing solutions at temperatures ranging from 150 to 600°C and pressure of 100 MPa through hydrolysis experiments. The results show that the dominant species of Os is OsCl6
2− at temperatures between 150 and 450°C and 100 MPa, gradually converting into Os(IV)-OH-Cl and Os(II)-Cl complexes over 450°C. The equilibrium constant (ln K) (K = [HCl]4 ⨯ [Cl−]2/[OsCl6
2−]) between OsCl6
2− and water molecule is determined as ln K = (50.43 ± 4.633) − (54223 ± 2525.6)/T, and Δ
r
H
m
Θ
and Δ
r
S
m
Θ
are inferred to be (450.8 ± 21.00) kJ · mol−1 and (419.3 ± 38.52) J · mol−1 · K−1. Furthermore, the formation constant (ln β) of OsCl6
2− exhibits a change from −0.097 to −0.104 as temperatures increase from 150 to 400°C, while the change values in standard Gibbs free energy (Δ
r
G
m
Θ
) for the hydrolysis reactions decrease with rising temperature, suggesting a temperature-dependent thermodynamic stability of OsCl6
2−. Geochemical modeling further demonstrates that high solubility of OsCl6
2− could exist in low-temperature and acidic fluids (≤300°C and pH < 5), or relatively high-temperature and acidic-neutral fluids (>300°C and pH < 7), primarily influenced by the Cl concentration. Acidic and near-neutral fluids with high Cl concentration venting in the mid-ocean ridge, back-arc, and sediment-hosted systems contribute more to dissolving and transporting Os from the lithosphere to the hydrosphere, thereby impacting the global ocean dissolved Os budget.
Abstract
Numerous studies have reported anomalous ultralow frequency (ULF) electromagnetic fields preceding earthquakes. In this paper, we estimate the current intensity responsible for generating the earthquake-related ULF fields under the assumption that the origin is a current flowing at the hypocenter and that it has the same frequency dependence for all cases. To estimate current intensity, we perform ULF electromagnetic field simulations with an absorbing boundary condition developed in this study, taking into account the conductivity distribution of the Earth's crust. We analyze 11 earthquakes, including those that occurred in Loma Prieta, Spitak, Guam, Biak, Kagoshima, Iwateken Nairiku Hokubu, Izu swarm, Jammu and Kashmir, Alum Rock, Wenchuan, and L’Aquila. Our results show that, for nine out of the 11 events, there is a positive correlation between current intensity and earthquake magnitude, suggesting that the measured ULF fields originate from seismic activity and supporting our assumptions.
Quantifying the uncertainties in thermal–optical analysis of carbonaceous aircraft engine emissions: an interlaboratory study
Timothy A. Sipkens, Joel C. Corbin, Brett Smith, Stéphanie Gagné, Prem Lobo, Benjamin T. Brem, Mark P. Johnson, and Gregory J. Smallwood
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4291–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4291-2024, 2024
Carbonaceous particles, such as soot, contribute to climate forcing, air pollution, and human health impacts. Thermal–optical analysis is a calibration standard used to measure these particles, but significant differences have been observed in the measurements across identical instruments. We report on the reproducibility of these measurements for aircraft emissions, which range from 8.0 % of the nominal value for organic carbon to 17 % for elemental carbon.
PyGLDA: a fine-scale Python-based Global Land Data Assimilation system for integrating satellite gravity data into hydrological models
Fan Yang, Maike Schumacher, Leire Retegui-Schiettekatte, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, and Ehsan Forootan
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-125,2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
The satellite gravimetry can provide direct measurement of total water storage (TWS) that was never achieved before. In this study, we provide an open-source assimilation system to show how the satellite based TWS can be temporally, vertically and laterally disaggregated for constraining/validating/improving the global hydrological models. With this system, early warning and water management at a global scale would be more accurate, given the upcoming next-generation satellite gravity missions.
Abstract
Here we present water vapor vertical profiles observed with the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter/Nadir and Occultation for MArs Discovery instrument during the perihelion and Southern summer solstice season (L
S
= 240°–300°) in three consecutive Martian Years 34, 35, and 36. We show the detailed latitudinal distribution of H2O at tangent altitudes from 10 to 120 km, revealing a vertical plume at 60°S–50°S injecting H2O upward, reaching abundance of about 50 ppmv at 100 km. We have observed this event repeatedly in the three Martian years analyzed, appearing at L
S
= 260°–280° and showing inter-annual variations in the magnitude and timing due to long term effects of the Martian Year 34 Global Dust Storm. We provide a rough estimate of projected hydrogen escape of 3.2 × 109 cm−2 s−1 associated to these plumes, adding further evidence of the key role played by the perihelion season in the long term evolution of the planet's climate.
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds to Warning Daily Landslide Hazard in Three Gorges Reservoir Area
Bo Peng and Xueling Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Our research enhances landslide prevention using advanced machine learning to forecast heavy rainfall-triggered landslides. By analyzing regions and employing various models, we identified optimal ways to predict high-risk rainfall events. Integrating multiple factors and models, including a neural network, significantly improves landslide predictions. Real data validation confirms our approach's reliability, aiding communities in mitigating landslide impacts and safeguarding lives and property.
Abstract
Time series of radiative cooling of the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) by carbon dioxide (CO2) are examined for evidence of trends over 20 years. Radiative cooling rates in K day−1 provided by the SABER instrument are converted to time series of infrared power radiated from three distinct layers between 0.1 hPa and 0.0001 hPa (65–105 km). Linear regression against time and a predictor for solar variability provides estimates of the trend in exiting longwave radiation (ELR) from these layers. Trends in ELR are not significantly different from zero at 95% or 99% confidence in each layer. These results demonstrate energy conservation in the UMLT on decadal time scales and show that the UMLT continues to radiate the same amount of energy it receives despite cooling and contracting over two decades. These results are enabled by the long-term stability of the SABER instrument calibration.
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce substantial upper-ocean mixing and upwelling, leading to sea surface cooling. In this study, we explore changes in TC-induced cold wakes along the United States (U.S.) Southeast and Gulf Coasts during 1982–2020. Our study shows a significant increase in TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of about 0.20°C near the U.S. Southeast Coast over this period. However, for the U.S. Gulf Coast, trends in TC-induced SST cooling are insignificant. Analysis of the large-scale oceanic environments indicate that the increasing TC-induced cold wakes near the Southeast coast have been predominantly caused by the cooling of subsurface waters in that region. This upper-ocean change is attributed to the enhancement of surface pressure gradient across land-sea boundary and the associated increase in alongshore winds over there. Further analysis with climate models reveals the important role of anthropogenic forcings in driving these changes in the atmospheric circulation response along the U.S. Southeast Coast.
Abstract
Sea-level change threatens the U.S. East Coast. Thus, it is important to understand the underlying causes, including ocean dynamics. Most past studies emphasized links between coastal sea level and local atmospheric variability or large-scale circulation and climate, but possible relationships with local ocean currents over the shelf and slope remain largely unexplored. Here we use 7 years of in situ velocity and sea-level data to quantify the relationship between northeastern U.S. coastal sea level and variable Shelfbreak Jet transport south of Nantucket Island. At timescales of 1–15 days, southern New England coastal sea level and transport vary in anti-phase, with magnitude-squared coherences of ∼0.5 and admittance amplitudes of ∼0.3 m Sv−1. These results are consistent with a dominant geostrophic balance between along-shelf transport and coastal sea level, corroborating a hypothesis made decades ago that was not tested due to the lack of transport data.
Abstract
To address the increasing demand for diurnal information on trace gases and aerosols, a series of geostationary (GEO) satellite programs called GEO-constellation have been initiated, with the launch of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) onboard Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite 2B (GK2B). To assess the sensor performance of GEMS in orbit, the current work suggests employing an inter-calibration methodology involving the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) aboard its twin satellite, GK2A. Twin satellites have a significant advantage in obtaining collocation data sets across diverse spatiotemporal, angular, and atmospheric conditions, enabling rigorous collocation criteria effectively reducing mismatch uncertainty. The results present robust correlation coefficients over 0.99, revealing the current calibration characteristics of the sensors. This research emphasizes the advantages of the GEO-GEO inter-calibration, particularly the capability of analyzing spatial and temporal dependencies. These findings confirm the mutual benefit of utilizing the sensors in similar configurations, highlighting their importance for future satellite monitoring endeavors.
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Abstract
Earth went through at least two periods of global glaciation (i.e., “Snowball Earth” states) during the Neoproterozoic, the shortest of which (the Marinoan) may not have lasted sufficiently long for its termination to be explained by the gradual volcanic build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Large asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions have been suggested as stochastic geological events that could cause a sudden end to global glaciation via a runaway melting process. Here, we employ an energy balance climate model to simulate the evolution of Snowball Earth's surface temperature after such events. We find that even a large impactor (diameters of d ∼ 100 km) and the supervolcanic Toba eruption (74 Kyr ago), are insufficient to terminate a Snowball state unless background CO2 has already been driven to high levels by long-term outgassing. We suggest, according to our modeling framework, that Earth's Snowball states would have been resilient to termination by stochastic events.
Aerosol optical depth data fusion with Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite (GEO-KOMPSAT-2) instruments GEMS, AMI, and GOCI-II: statistical and deep neural network methods
Minseok Kim, Jhoon Kim, Hyunkwang Lim, Seoyoung Lee, Yeseul Cho, Yun-Gon Lee, Sujung Go, and Kyunghwa Lee
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4317–4335, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4317-2024, 2024
Information about aerosol loading in the atmosphere can be collected from various satellite instruments. Aerosol products from various satellite instruments have their own error characteristics. This study statistically merged aerosol optical depth datasets from multiple instruments aboard geostationary satellites considering uncertainties. Also, a deep neural network technique is adopted for aerosol data merging.
Determination of high-precision tropospheric delays using crowdsourced smartphone GNSS data
Yuanxin Pan, Grzegorz Kłopotek, Laura Crocetti, Rudi Weinacker, Tobias Sturn, Linda See, Galina Dick, Gregor Möller, Markus Rothacher, Ian McCallum, Vicente Navarro, and Benedikt Soja
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4303–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4303-2024, 2024
Crowdsourced smartphone GNSS data were processed with a dedicated data processing pipeline and could produce millimeter-level accurate estimates of zenith total delay (ZTD) – a critical atmospheric variable. This breakthrough not only demonstrates the feasibility of using ubiquitous devices for high-precision atmospheric monitoring but also underscores the potential for a global, cost-effective tropospheric monitoring network.
Abstract
Systematical investigation of deep mantle structure beneath the Pamir Plateau, western Tian Shan and their surroundings is of great significance to understand dynamics of continental collision, intracontinental orogenesis and deformation in response to the Indo-Eurasian collision. In this research, we imaged the mantle transition zone (MTZ) structure beneath these regions using 42,560 P-wave receiver functions obtained from 352 seismic stations and 6,173 teleseismic events. Our results reveal significant 15–20 km depression of the 410-km discontinuity (d410) mainly beneath the southern Kazakh Shield, which is consistent with the low-velocity anomaly in tomographic models and thus attributed to the mantle upwelling from the MTZ, providing evidence for the fossil Tian Shan plume responsible for the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene basaltic magmatism (74–52 Ma) at the western Tian Shan. Considering that the d410 is slightly depressed by ∼8 km beneath the western Tian Shan, deep subduction of the Tarim lithosphere is likely excluded and its subhorizontal indentation into the Tian Shan is preferred. As a result, segments of thickened Tian Shan lithosphere delaminated and accumulated near the 660-km discontinuity (d660), which induce small-scale upwelling across the d410 there. The d410 is depressed by ∼10–15 km beneath Tarim, which is interpreted to be caused by the mantle upwelling originating from beneath the d410. The d660 below the central Hindu Kush is extremely depressed by 25–30 km, providing direct evidence for the deep subduction of Indian lithosphere into the bottom of the MTZ and suggesting different mechanisms for continental collision between the Hindu Kush and Pamir Plateau.
Abstract
Geomagnetic field models over past millennia rely on two main data sources: archeomagnetic data provide snapshots of the geomagnetic field at specific locations, and sediment records deliver time series of the geomagnetic field at specific locations. The limited temporal and spatial coverage of archeomagnetic data necessitates the incorporation of sediment data especially when models go further back in time. When working with sediment data one should consider the post-depositional detrital remanent magnetization (pDRM) process, which can cause delayed and smoothed signals. To address the distortion associated with the pDRM process a Bayesian modeling technique incorporating archeomagnetic data and a class of flexible parameterized lock-in functions has been proposed. In this study, we investigate this method in more detail and apply it to declination and inclination of several lacustrine and marine sediment records. Data-driven results support the hypothesis that the pDRM process can introduce distortions, including offsets and smoothing, in some lacustrine and marine sediment records. We demonstrate a correction approach to minimize the distortion caused by the pDRM process and its impact on geomagnetic field reconstructions. The variability in the results observed across the nine records points to a potential dependence on sedimentological characteristics. To explore this further, we plan to systematically apply our novel method to a larger number of records in future studies.
Abstract
The characteristics of gravity waves in China are investigated through an extensive analysis of high vertical resolution radiosonde observations collected over eight years across 120 stations, and are subsequently compared to those in the United States. These characteristics encompass energy density, intrinsic frequencies, horizontal and vertical wavelengths, as well as vertical and horizonal propagation directions. China and the United States, situated in mid-latitude regions with prominent western topographical features, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Rocky Mountains respectively, demonstrate striking similarities in the generation and distribution of gravity waves. Both landmasses exhibit the strongest gravity waves during winter and the weakest during summer. And within the troposphere, the maximum energy of gravity waves is generated over and immediately downstream of the topographies. In addition, the energy level is amplified in the lower stratosphere. However, unique regional contrasts in summer are result from the differences of summer monsoon influence and the distinct western topographies. The maximum gravity wave energy in summer troposphere is observed over the north side of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, contrasting with its location downstream of the Rockies in the United States.
