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The last glacial inception (LGI) marks the transition from the interglacial warm climate to the glacial period with extensive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and colder climate. This transition is initiated by decreasing boreal summer insolation but requires positive feedbacks to stimulate the appearance of perennial snow. We perform simulations of LGI with climate model AWI-ESM-2.1, forced by the astronomical and greenhouse gas forcing of 115,000 years before present. To compare with the preindustrial (PI) simulation, we use a consistent definition of the seasons during the LGI and the PI and evaluate model output on an angular astronomical calendar. Our study reveals a prominent role of the sea-ice albedo feedback to amplify the delayed climate signal at polar latitudes. Through a radiative budget analysis, we examine that the ice-albedo feedback exceeds the shortwave radiative forcing, contributing to the cooling and high latitude snow built-up during LGI.

Late Pleistocene glacial terminations are caused by rising atmospheric CO2 occurring in response to atmospheric and ocean circulation changes induced by increased discharge from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. While climate records place glacial terminations coincident with decreasing orbital precession, it remains unclear why a specific precession minimum causes a termination. We compare the orbital and ice volume configuration at each precession minima over the last million years to demonstrate that eccentricity, through its control on precession amplitude, period and coherence with obliquity, along with ice sheet size, determine whether a given precession minimum will cause a termination. We also demonstrate how eccentricity controls obliquity maxima and precession minima coherence, varying the duration of glaciations. Glaciations lasting ∼100 thousand years are controlled by Earth's eccentricity cycle of the same period, while the shortest (20–40 ka) and longest (155 ka) occupy the maxima and minimums of the 400 thousand year eccentricity cycle.

Obvious biases in simulating tropical cyclone (TC) genesis of the current climate models hamper our understanding of TC changes. In this study, we found a delay of the seasonal cycle of TC genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. During the active TC season, the simulated south-warming and north-cooling surface temperature bias amplifies the meridional gradient and excites thermal winds. This weakens the western North Pacific Subtropical High and easterly monsoon trough, which further reduces TC genesis frequency over the western WNP in summer. But in autumn, positive TC genesis biases were only observed in coupled models over the eastern WNP. Both seasons contribute to the delayed seasonal cycle of TC frequency in models. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate simulation of surface temperature by climate models to TC simulations and aid in future model improvements.

Sound velocities and densities of Al-bearing superhydrous phase B (Al-bearing SuB) were investigated up to 24 GPa and 1300 K by synchrotron X-rays combined with ultrasonic interferometry techniques in a multi-anvil apparatus. We found that Al + H incorporation decreases the adiabatic bulk modulus and shear modulus of SuB. Our results however suggest that this effect is less important than that of temperature. The presence of hydrous pyrolite with ∼10 wt.% Al-bearing SuB in cold subducting slabs could explain up to ∼2% high velocity anomalies at the bottom of the mantle transition zone (500–660 km) while it turns into ∼7.7% low velocity anomalies below 660 km. Al-bearing SuB is reportedly stable at mantle temperatures, where it could account for ∼12.2% low velocity anomalies beneath subduction zones in the uppermost lower mantle.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon—the dominant source of climate variability on seasonal to multi-year timescales—is predictable a few seasons in advance. Forecast skill at longer multi-year timescales has been found in a few models and forecast systems, but the robustness of this predictability across models has not been firmly established owing to the cost of running dynamical model predictions at longer lead times. In this study, we use a massive collection of multi-model hindcasts performed using model analogs to show that multi-year ENSO predictability is robust across models and arises predominantly due to skillful prediction of multi-year La Nina events following strong El Niño events.

Relativistic electron precipitation (REP) refers to the release of high-energy electrons initially trapped in the outer radiation belt, which then precipitate into Earth's upper atmosphere, contributing significantly to the rapid depletion of radiation belt electron flux. This study presents a statistical analysis of REP observations collected by the Calorimetric Electron Telescope (CALET) experiment aboard the International Space Station from 2015 to the present day. Specifically, the analysis utilizes count rates acquired from the two top scintillators constituting the top charge detector, each sensitive to electrons with energies above 1.5 and 3.4 MeV, respectively. Analysis of CALET data reveals a previously unreported semi-annual variation in the occurrence of REP events. REP periodicities resemble those observed for trapped electron fluxes in the outer belt. Furthermore, their amplitude follows the overall trend of solar wind high-speed streams and the solar activity.

The behavior of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has undergone significant changes since the year 2000. Meanwhile, a notable westward shift and strengthening in the atmosphere-to-ocean Bjerknes feedback were observed. We find that this shift can be primarily attributed to a weakened relationship between the zonal gradient of precipitation anomaly and that of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly since 2000.This weakened relationship is a comprehensive manifestation of reduced El Niño-related precipitation anomalies in the central-eastern tropical Pacific and increased anomalies in the western tropical Pacific. These changes are connected to the mean state change in the tropical Pacific after 2000, where the cooler background SSTs in the central-eastern tropical Pacific suppress upward motion, and the warmer background SSTs in the western tropical Pacific promote upward motion in the overlying atmosphere. Our findings offer a potential explanation for the westward shift and strengthening in the atmosphere-to-ocean Bjerknes feedback since 2000.

Oceanic motions across meso-, submeso-, and turbulent scales play distinct roles in vertical heat transport (VHT) between the ocean's surface and its interior. While it is commonly understood that during summertime the enhanced stratification due to increased solar radiation typically results in an reduced upper-ocean vertical exchange, our study reveals a significant upward VHT associated with submesoscale fronts (<30 km) through high-resolution observations in the eddy-active South China Sea. The observation-based VHT reaches ∼100 W m−2 and extends to ∼150 m deep at the fronts between eddies. Combined with microstructure observations, this study demonstrates that mixing process can only partly offset the strong upward VHT by inducing a downward heat flux of 0.5–10 W m−2. Thus, the submesoscale-associated VHT is effectively heating the subsurface layer. These findings offer a quantitative perspective on the scale-dependent nature of VHT, with crucial implications for the climate system.

The ring current is an important component of the Earth's near-space environment, as its variations are the direct driver of geomagnetic storms that can disrupt power grids, satellite communications, and navigation systems, thereby impacting a wide range of technological and human activities. Oxygen ions (O+) are one of the major components of the ring current and play a significant role in both the enhancement and depletion of the ring current during geomagnetic storms. Although a standard statistical study can provide average global distributions of ring current ions, it can't offer insight into the short-term dynamic variations of the global distribution. Therefore, we employed the Artificial Neural Network technique to construct a global ring current O+ ion model based on the Van Allen Probes observations. Through optimization of the combination of input geomagnetic indices and their respective time history lengths, the model can well reproduce the spatiotemporal variation of the oxygen ion flux distributions and demonstrates remarkable accuracy and minimal errors. Additionally, the model effectively reconstructs the temporal variation of ring current O+ ions for non-training set data. Furthermore, the model provides a comprehensive and dynamic representation of global ring current O+ ion distribution. It accurately captures the dynamics of O+ ions during a geomagnetic storm with the oxygen ion fluxes enhancement and decay, and reveals distinct characteristics for different energy levels, such as injection from the plasma sheet, outflow from the ionosphere, and magnetic local time asymmetry.

The development of a digital high-frequency (HF) radio communication system requires an ionospheric channel model from the channel impulse response (CIR) measurement. Although the Watterson ionosphere channel model has been available and used for a long time, several CIR measurements have been conducted in all regions of the Earth in an attempt to validate or replace the Watterson channel model with a suitable model for their region. However, only a few CIR measurements were conducted in low-latitude regions, especially over Indonesia. In this study, we develop the CIR measurement system for the near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) propagation mode over Java Island based on the software defined radio platform to meet low-cost and simple operation requirements. The specification of the system is based on the International Telecommunication Union ionospheric channel characteristic document and increased in order to be able to capture higher values. Results from a 1-week campaign measurement period show the ability of the system to measure the root mean square of time delay within the range of 0.2–1.3 ms and the Doppler shift within the range of 0.7–1.1 Hz in the quiet conditions of the ionosphere. Further measurements will be conducted to obtain a comprehensive ionosphere CIR that is useful for designing the NVIS-HF digital communication in Indonesia, which is located beneath the crest region of an equatorial ionospheric anomaly.

Terrestrial carbon uptake and water availability have coupled feedbacks; specifically water uptake for plant growth and soil drying via transpiration. While we might expect this coupling over time at arid sites, climatic water availability also widely covaries geographically with biomass variables that control photosynthetic rates. Using eddy covariance data globally, we find convex, positively-covarying relations between carbon uptake and a turbulent flux metric controlled by land surface moisture (r = 0.73 monthly across sites) at the site level. We estimate a general, empirical relationship based on site-wise water-carbon dynamics. Most sites, and the general relationship, show strong power-law dependence, implicating the role of sub-seasonal land-cover dynamics. We also find that long-term mean carbon/water states follow a similar convex relationship to the site-specific temporal dynamics. We discuss opportunities and caveats for space-for-time frameworks of carbon/water feedback processes globally.

Open-Path Fourier-Transform Infrared (OP-FTIR) absorption spectroscopy is a powerful method for remote characterization of volcanic plume composition from safe distances. Many studies have used it to examine the composition of volcanic gas emitted at the surface, which is influenced by initial volatile contents and magma ascent/storage processes, and help to reveal the dynamics controlling surface activity. However, to evaluate the health hazard threats associated with volcanic emissions and their potential impact on wider atmospheric conditions, near-source particle measurements are also key. Here we present a forward model and fitting algorithm which allows quantification of particle size and abundance. This was successfully applied to radiometrically uncalibrated OP-FTIR spectra collected with a highly dynamic radiation source during the Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland, on 11 August 2021. Quantification of plume temperatures ranging from 350 to 650 K was essential to characterize the emission-absorption behavior of SO2, enabling retrievals of particulate matter in the thermal infrared spectral window (750–1250 cm−1) in each spectrum. For the first time, we observe the rapid formation of primary aerosols in young plumes (only a few seconds old) with OP-FTIR. Temperature-dependent SO2/SO4 2− molar ratios range from 100 to 250, consistent with a primary formation mechanism controlled by cooling and entrainment of atmospheric gases. This novel aerosol spectrum retrieval opens new frontiers in field-based measurements of sulfur partitioning and volcanic plume evolution, with the potential to improve volcano monitoring and quantification of air quality hazard assessments.

We use observations from the Southern Ocean (SO) biogeochemical profiling float array to quantify the meridional pattern of particle export efficiency (PEeff) during the austral productive season. Float estimates reveal a pronounced latitudinal gradient of PEeff, which is quantitatively supported by a compilation of existing ship-based measurements. Relying on complementary float-based estimates of distinct carbon pools produced through biological activity, we find that PEeff peaks near the region of maximum particulate inorganic carbon sinking flux in the polar antarctic zone, where net primary production (NPP) is the lowest. Regions characterized by intermediate NPP and low PEeff, primarily in the subtropical and seasonal ice zones, are generally associated with a higher fraction of dissolved organic carbon production. Our study reveals the critical role of distinct biogenic carbon pool production in driving the latitudinal pattern of PEeff in the SO.

Accurate earthquake source parameters are crucial for understanding plate tectonics, yet, it is difficult to determine these parameters precisely for offshore events, especially for outer-rise earthquakes, as the limited availability of direct P or S wave data sets from land-based seismic networks and the unsuitability of simplified 1D methods for the complex 3D structures of subducting systems. To overcome these challenges, we employ an efficient hybrid numerical simulation method to model these 3D structural effects on teleseismic P/SH and P-coda waves and determine the reliable centroid locations and focal mechanisms of outer-rise normal-faulting earthquakes in northeastern Japan. Two M6+ events with reliable locations from ocean bottom seismic observations are utilized to calibrate the 3D velocity structure. Our findings indicate that 3D synthetic waveforms are sensitive to both event location, thanks to bathymetry and water reverberation effects, and the shallow portion of the lithospheric structure. With our preferred velocity model, which has Versus ∼16% lower than the global average, event locations are determined with uncertainties of <5 km for horizontal position and <1 km for depth. The refined event locations in a good match between one of the nodal strikes and the high-resolution bathymetry, enabling the determination of the causative fault plane. Our results reveal that trench-ward dipping normal faults are more active, with three parallel to the trench as expected, while five are associated with the abyssal hills. The significant velocity reduction in the uppermost lithosphere suggests abundant water migrating through active normal faults, enhancing both mineral alteration and pore density.

We evaluate seismicity and tectonics along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in southern California to elucidate ongoing near-field crustal deformation processes. The principal slip surfaces (PSSs) or the fault core that accommodate major earthquakes, form the boundary between the tectonic plates. We analyze seismicity catalogs extending back to 1857, 1932, and 1981 with progressively improved magnitude of completeness and spatial resolution. The 1857 to present statewide catalog that is complete at M5.5+ documents minimal aftershock activity for the Mw7.9 1857 and 1906 Mw7.8 San Francisco earthquakes. The higher quality 1932 and 1981 catalogs show that the PSSs (the rupture zone) of the 1857 Mw7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake exhibits remarkable seismic quiescence both in the core and in the adjacent extended-damage zone. Further south, the fault core is still aseismic but the shape of the SAF is more complex, and the rate of adjacent seismicity is much higher. This fault complexity and the seismicity rate are larger the more the strike of the SAF deviates from the Pacific plate velocity-vector direction. The focal mechanisms of the SAF adjacent earthquakes are also heterogeneous and rarely have strikes and dips that are consistent with slip on the nearby PSSs. We infer that the southern SAF is locked, and a lack of seismicity at the core of the fault may be a standard feature of faults that almost exclusively accommodate high-slip rates by producing major earthquakes. Correspondingly future aftershock sequences of major earthquakes on the southern SAF will likely have below average aftershock productivity.

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission has probed Earth's magnetosphere, magnetosheath, and near-Earth solar wind for over 8 years. We utilize an unsupervised learning algorithm, Gaussian mixture model clustering, along with feature generation and simple post-cleaning methods to automatically classify 8 years of MMS dayside observations into four plasma regions (magnetosphere, magnetosheath, solar wind, and ion foreshock) at 1-min resolution. With these plasma regions distinguished, we have also identified boundary surfaces (e.g., magnetopause, bow shock). We validate our results on manually generated and rule based region labels described in the literature. We report overlap rates in our cluster determined magnetopauses and bow shocks against Scientist-in-the Loop (SITL) identified transitions and published databases. Our features are general and our model is extensible, potentially making it applicable to observational data from multiple other missions.

Glaciers and ice streams flowing over sediment beds commonly have a layer of ice-rich debris adhered to their base, known as a “frozen fringe,” but its impact on basal friction is unknown. We simulated basal slip over granular beds with a cryogenic ring shear device while ice infiltrated the bed to grow a fringe, and measured the frictional response under different effective stresses and slip speeds. Frictional resistance increased with increasing slip speed until it plateaued at the frictional strength of the till, closely resembling the regularized Coulomb slip law associated with clean ice over deformable beds. We hypothesize that this arises from deformation in a previously unidentified zone of weakly frozen sediments at the fringe's base, which is highly sensitive to temperature and stress gradients. We show how a rheologic model for ice-rich debris coupled with the thermomechanics of fringe growth can account for the regularized Coulomb behavior.

Using 9  years of full-depth profiles from 55 Deep Argo floats in the Southwest Pacific Basin collected between 2014 and 2023, we find consistent warm anomalies compared to a long-term climatology below 2,000 m ranging between 11 ± 2 to 34 ± 2 m°C, most pronounced between 3,500 and 5,000 m. Over this period, a cooling trend is found between 2,000 and 4,000 m and a significant warming trend below 4,000 m with a maximum rate of 4.1 ± 0.31 m°C yr−1 near 5,000 m, with a possible acceleration over the second half of the period. The integrated Steric Sea Level expansion below 2,000 m was 7.9 ± 1 mm compared to the climatology with a trend of 1.3 ± 1.6 mm dec−1 over the Deep Argo era, contributing significantly to the local sea level budget. We assess the ability to close a full Sea Level Budget, further demonstrating the value of a full-depth Argo array.

In this work, we address the computational challenge of large-scale physics-based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real-time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current-Atmosphere interactions Model with Self-Consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345. A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one-step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced-order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time-series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM-SCB run.

In this study, the error of total electron content (TEC) derived from the global ionospheric map (GIM) (GIM-TEC) during equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) event is investigated for the first time. The frequently-used assessment parameter of ionospheric TEC model, namely difference of Slant TEC (difference of slant total electron content (dSTEC)) is checked and employed based on eight global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations distributed around the geomagnetic equator during the high solar activity year of 2014. The international GNSS service final GIM products are exemplified. The results present several interesting findings: (a) The observed dSTEC series is biased when an EPB is observed at the highest satellite elevation, leading to a fake bias in GIM-TEC; (b) When an EPB occurred, the error of GIM-TEC can increases or decreases and its variation sign is unrelated to the magnitude of EPB; (c) The average of the EPB-induced GIM-TEC errors is mainly at −5 to 5 TECU with 76% (24%) of positive (negative) values, and the maximum (minimum) is close to 10 TECU (−10 TECU); (d) The structure of EPB is unable to be captured by the GIM-TEC series.