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Lingering El Niño events are becoming more common: Study uncovers 7,000-year trend

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 04/02/2025 - 13:22
An international team of geoscientists, marine geologists, climatologists, and environmental specialists has found that lingering El Niño events have increased in frequency over the past 7,000 years. In their study published in Nature Geoscience, the group analyzed oxygen isotopes trapped in Pacific Ocean corals and used the findings to create a simulation showing occurrences of El Niño events and their lengths over time.

Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plants May Lower Crop Yields in India

EOS - Wed, 04/02/2025 - 13:18

Coal-fired power plants in India—responsible for generating 73.4% of the country’s electricity—are bad for the country’s wheat. A new study shows that nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emitted from the plants can affect agricultural productivity on farms up to 100 kilometers away and reduce crop yields for wheat and rice in particular.

“Our primary finding here is that nitrogen dioxide emissions from the coal electricity generation sector are associated with meaningful crop loss in certain parts of India.”

Farms across the states of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal are especially vulnerable to NO2 emissions. Research indicated that annual crop yield losses in these states exceeded 10% over what was expected between 2011 and 2020.

“Our primary finding here is that nitrogen dioxide emissions from the coal electricity generation sector are associated with meaningful crop loss in certain parts of India,” said Kirat Singh, one of the study authors and a Ph.D. student at the Doerr School of Sustainability at Stanford University.

Making the Model

To understand the relationship between coal plant emissions and crop productivity, Singh and his fellow researchers gathered data on the presence of nitrogen dioxide from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite. They integrated other satellite data on vegetation as well as datasets on electricity generation and weather.

The scientists were ultimately confronted with the challenge of teasing apart the source of the gas. “We built a model to determine what portion of total can be linked to emissions from coal power plants,” Singh said. The model uses changes in wind direction to try to isolate pollution that can be linked to emissions from specific sources, he explained.

The results, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, show that in certain regions heavily exposed to coal emissions, yields are more than 10% lower than they would have been in the absence of emissions from coal-fired power plants.

Agricultural Benefits for Improving Air Quality

This is a case of direct toxicity, said Jennifer Burney, a professor of environmental social sciences and Earth system science at Stanford’s Doerr School who was not involved in the study. “The plant might be taking [NO2] in through stomata or protecting itself against it by not respiring,” said Burney, who has conducted several studies assessing the impact of air pollution on agriculture.

In addition to acting as a toxin itself, nitrogen oxide is also one of the precursors of ground-level ozone, a major component of smog, according to Lisa Emberson, an environmental pollution biologist in the Department of Environment and Geography at the University of York. “Ozone is formed as sunlight drives chemical reactions between nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds such as methane,” she said. In her own research, Emberson has found that ozone pollution also affects the nutritional content of grains.

The study strengthens the links between air quality and India’s food security and economic progress, its authors conclude. “For Indian policymakers and regulators, these findings mean that there are potentially very substantial, and previously unaccounted-for, agricultural benefits from improving air quality through controlling emissions at coal power plants,” Singh said.

—Pragathi Ravi (@pragathi_r24), Science Writer

Citation: Ravi, P. (2025), Emissions from coal-fired power plants may lower crop yields in India, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250120. Published on 2 April 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Asteroid Samples Suggest a Solar System of Ancient, Salty Incubators

EOS - Wed, 04/02/2025 - 13:18

Researchers have found salts in samples from asteroid Ryugu. Combined with similar salty discoveries from asteroid Bennu, the finding suggests that aqueous incubators of life’s first ingredients may have been relatively common in the early solar system.

Astrochemists have found sugars and nucleotide bases outside of Earth before, but an extraterrestrial environment in which these ingredients could combine—and possibly create life—remained elusive. The salts lifted from the two asteroids are evidence that just such an incubator (salty liquid water) existed in the early solar system.

The results from Ryugu were reported in Nature Astronomy in November 2024, and those from Bennu were reported in January 2025. The parallel discoveries paint a compelling picture of the early solar system.

“We can now say, for the first time, that 4.5 billion years ago—long before most of us thought it could happen—we had both the ingredients and the environment in which the early stages of organic evolution towards life could begin,” said Tim McCoy, a curator of meteorites at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History who studied the Bennu samples. Such evolution “didn’t happen on a large, icy moon or a large, warm planet like Earth. It was actually happening in asteroids at the birth of the solar system. From day one of the solar system, we were seeing this organic evolution.”

Avoiding the Elements

Meteorites, typically fragments of larger space rocks, are exposed to moisture as they fall to Earth. When this happens, any water-soluble materials they may have had react and disappear. The atmosphere, McCoy said, is “actually removing some of what was there to start with.” That means meteorites themselves are not always reliable for studying whether their parent bodies contained water.

Two recent space missions sought to bring back regolith directly from asteroids. JAXA’s (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) Hayabusa2 visited Ryugu in 2019, returning samples in 2020. NASA’s Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) collected samples of Bennu in 2020 and returned to Earth in 2023.

“Meteorites have been studied for about 150 years. But nobody had found such kind of salts, so we are surprised.”

Most researchers think common, carbon-rich asteroids like Ryugu and Bennu, known as C-type asteroids, contain water and organic material left over from the formation of the solar system.

Toru Matsumoto, an astromaterials scientist from Kyoto University, and his colleagues found thin white veins in tiny samples from Ryugu. Using electron microscopy and radiation X-ray analysis, they identified the minerals and their chemical compositions.

The Ryugu sample showed a composition remarkably similar to that of samples from Bennu. Both asteroids contain clays, iron oxides, iron sulfides, and carbonates, suggesting they were altered by water.

The Ryugu samples also contained sodium carbonate salts. “Meteorites have been studied for about 150 years,” Matsumoto said. “But nobody had found such kind of salts, so we are surprised.”

Aqueous Evidence

Salty water provides a unique environment for the development of life. A sodium-rich solution with minimal calcium allows phosphate to stay in the solution, which is important because phosphate combined with sugar forms the backbone of RNA and DNA. Sodium-rich solutions can also catalyze chemical reactions between organics and precipitate minerals that act as templates for those reactions.

Evaporite salts such as sodium carbonate are the last minerals to precipitate out of salty water. Their presence on Ryugu suggests that “there were really large volumes of water on this asteroid, which is kind of weird, because it’s a small rock floating in space, so it’s not going to have [an] actual ocean on it,” said Prajkta Mane, a planetary scientist at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Texas who was not involved with the research.

“These two sample sets really provide our first glimpse of a portion of the solar system that was previously poorly sampled.”

“In order to get something like these evaporites, you have to have a pocket of water that’s evaporating,” McCoy said. “I don’t think we had any proof of that before, and now we do.”

That samples from both Bennu and Ryugu contain salts suggests that watery environments were common in the outer solar system, where the asteroids’ parent bodies likely formed. “Processes that occurred on one likely occurred on many or most similar asteroids, and likely [on] icy moons,” McCoy said. The salts resemble those recently discovered on the dwarf planet Ceres and on icy moons orbiting Jupiter and Saturn, which likely host subsurface oceans.

“These two sample sets really provide our first glimpse of a portion of the solar system that was previously poorly sampled,” McCoy said.

—Molly Herring (@mollyherring.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Herring, M. (2025), Asteroid samples suggest a solar system of ancient, salty incubators, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250122. Published on 2 April 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Taking Our Paleoceanographic Tools to the Next Level

EOS - Wed, 04/02/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology

Climate models predict that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – a major conveyor-like system of ocean currents in the Atlantic – will weaken under global warming scenarios, causing major shifts in climate patterns. To build confidence in these projections, it is valuable to test how capable the models are at capturing past AMOC behavior.

One method used for reconstructing the strength of the AMOC over the past 100,000 years has been the measurement of the ratio of protactinium (231Pa) to thorium (230Th) isotopes preserved in seafloor sediments that have built up, layer-upon-layer, over time. Although often simplistically linked to changes in AMOC strength, the 231Pa/230Th ratio preserved in deep-sea sediments is controlled by a vast array of biogeochemical, sedimentological, and oceanographic factors.

Scheen et al. [2025] take an important step forward by modeling the behavior of these isotopes in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity that includes many of the key environmental processes affecting these isotopes. Their results largely support the traditional interpretation of some of the iconic 231Pa/230Th records, but they also reveal the sometimes-counterintuitive behavior of this proxy system, thus cautioning us to recognize its full complexity. The results are also used to suggest optimal locations for developing new 231Pa/230Th reconstructions. The model presented by the authors should not be treated as the final word, since – necessarily – it is still a simplified representation of a very complex system, yet they are to be commended for advancing our interpretation of a proxy system oft viewed as a key tool for constraining past AMOC behavior. 

Citation: Scheen, J., Lippold, J., Pöppelmeier, F., Süfke, F., & Stocker, T. F. (2025). Promising regions for detecting the overturning circulation in Atlantic 231Pa/230Th: A model-data comparison. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 40, e2024PA004869. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024PA004869

—David Thornalley, Associate Editor, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology

Text © 2024. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Simulating the origin and evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation shows how it helped shape Earth

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 04/02/2025 - 08:09
A simulation on the origin and evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been conducted by a PKU research team led by Nie Ji, Associate Professor of the School of Physics; and Hu Yongyun, Dean of the Institute of Ocean Research, along with a research team from National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Fatal landslides in March 2025

EOS - Wed, 04/02/2025 - 07:05

The Landslide Blog is written by Dave Petley, who is widely recognized as a world leader in the study and management of landslides.

In March 2025, I recorded 37 fatal landslides globally (excluding those triggered by earthquakes), costing 90 lives. The 2004-2016 average number of fatal landslides in March reported by Froude and Petley (2018) was 28.3 landslides, so 2025 is running considerably above the long term mean. However, it is lower that the total recorded for 2024 (49 landslides).

As usual, the best way to present the data is using pentads – five day blocks. Pentad 18 extends to the end of March. This is the cumulative total number of fatal landslides for 2025, with the 2004-2016 average and 2024 plotted for comparison:-

The cumulative total number of fatal landslides for 2025 by pentad, with 2024 and 2004-2016 for comparison. Author’s own data, published under a CC licence.

As the data shows, towards the end of the winter, 2025 was plotting above 2024. However, this has now changed, although the difference is small. 2024 was characterised by a marked increase around at pentad 23 (which starts on 21 April), reflecting the start of the rainy season in the key parts of the Northern Hemisphere, so April 2025 will be very interesting. In general, this acceleration in landslide rate does not start until about pentad 30 (which starts on 26 May).

I also recorded one fatal landslide triggered by an earthquake, which occurred in Hutabarat village, North Sumatra, Indonesia, triggered by a M = 5.6 earthquake. Two people were killed. An unknown number of people may also have been killed by landslides in the earthquake and its aftershocks in Myanmar, but this is very uncertain.

Particularly notable in March 2025 has been a series of landslides, alongside flooding, in Ecuador. This has had a high social cost.

As always, I am happy for others to use this fatal landslide data and the figure, but please attribute to me and cite Froude and Petley (2018). Contact me if you want the data for 2004-2016.

Reference

Froude M.J. and Petley D.N. 2018. Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 18, 2161-2181. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

North America is dripping from below, geoscientists discover

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 04/01/2025 - 20:27
Researchers have discovered that the underside of the North American continent is dripping away in blobs of rock—and that the remnants of a tectonic plate sinking in Earth's mantle may be the reason why.

Enhanced westerly winds lead to increased ocean heat transport to the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, study finds

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 04/01/2025 - 20:24
A research group led by Associate Professor Kohei Mizobata, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, including researchers from the National Institute of Polar Research, the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, and the Institute of Low Temperature Science (Hokkaido University), has found that enhanced westerly winds associated with global warming will strengthen the clockwise circulations and transport heat to the ice sheet in the East Antarctic coastal area.

A multiscale and cross-level feature fusion method for remote sensing image target detection

Publication date: Available online 21 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): SHAN Wenchao, YANG Shuwen, LI Yikun, KOU Ruixiong

Multi-step probabilistic forecasting for sunspot numbers based on LightGBM

Publication date: Available online 20 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): B. Niu, Z. Huang

A Statistical Evaluation of Sentinel 2 and Landsat 9 Sensors in Water Quality Retrieval in Mesotrophic and Hypereutrophic Reservoirs of India

Publication date: Available online 20 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): E. Eswarvikram, A. Abdul Wahid, E. ArunBabu, A.V. Akshaya Prabha, P. Gilbert Johnson

Secure Satellite Image Transmission with Dynamic Encipherment and AuthKeX Protocol

Publication date: Available online 20 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Eldo P Elias, A Santhanavijayan

Acceleration-level coordinated control of a dual-arm free-floating space robot under hard joint constraints

Publication date: Available online 20 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Zhihui Xue, Jinguo Liu, Xin Zhang, Hao Zhou, Yangmin Li

Catchment scale land use and hydrogeomorphology relationship in assessing river water quality using SWAT and RDA modelling in the Damodar River basin, West Bengal, India

Publication date: Available online 19 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Souvanik Maity, Ramkrishna Maiti, Sourav Mukherjee

Aquifer restoration in the Lubei Plain, China: Insights from InSAR and groundwater head monitoring

Publication date: Available online 19 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Guangli Su, Chunbao Xiong, Wei Zhan, Xuechuan Li, Hong Liang, Yu Li

Pose acquisition of non-cooperative spacecraft by point cloud template matching

Publication date: Available online 19 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Jiaqi Feng, Zhang Zhang, Zhongguang Yang, Jinpei Yu, Wen Chen, Liang Chang, Hongyu Chen

Precise baseline determination for the four-satellite InSAR constellation HT-01 with ambiguity resolution constraints

Publication date: Available online 19 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Dachen Peng, Shibo Guo, Defeng Gu, Kai Shao, Houzhe Zhang, Ruiyun Yang, Jufeng Lu, Jiangkai Liu, Haoseng Wang, LiuPeng Huang

Determining geocenter motion using combined ground and spaceborne GPS observations with ambiguity resolution

Publication date: Available online 19 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Shiwei Guo, Lei Fan, Zongnan Li, Xinqi Fang, Chenshu Huo, Chuang Shi

Observer-based robust preview control for tracking low Earth orbit targets of a 2.5-meter optical telescope with wind disturbance

Publication date: Available online 18 March 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Jueqi Lin, Weirui Chen, Zheng Wang, Xiaojun Zhou, Yu Han

1,900 Scientists Warn Of “Real Danger” In Open Letter

EOS - Tue, 04/01/2025 - 19:03
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

In an open letter to the American people, more than 1,900 scientists sent an “SOS” that the Trump administration’s actions have “decimated” the nation’s scientific enterprise and censored scientific work. “We see real danger in this moment,” the scientists wrote.

Each of the scientists who signed the letter is an elected member of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, a congressionally chartered group of nonprofit organizations that provide expertise to the federal government and the public on scientific and technological issues. The letter stated that the signatories hold a range of political beliefs. Signatories represent a range of scientific disciplines, from cell biology to planetary science to economics.

The letter emphasized the need for U.S. scientists to retain their independence and ability to explore scientific questions without the influence of special interests or the limitations of censorship—that ability is now in question due to the administration’s cuts to scientific funding, firings of scientists, removals of public data, and pressure for researchers to abandon certain work.

The Trump administration is “using executive orders and financial threats to manipulate which studies are funded or published, how results are reported, and which data and research findings the public can access. The administration is blocking research on topics it finds objectionable, such as climate change, or that yield results it does not like, on topics ranging from vaccine safety to economic trends,” the letter stated.

Letter from more than 1,900 scientistsDownload

“We have spent 80 years in this country building up our scientific infrastructure,” Steven Woolf, an author of the letter and professor of family medicine at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine told PBS. “That’s enabled our country to make remarkable scientific discoveries that have made the United States the envy of the world. In a matter of weeks, the Trump administration has pursued a set of policies that are basically removing the capacity of our country to do this kind of research.”

 
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Woolf also said he was concerned that the attacks on U.S. science, and in particular, cuts to health research and vaccine regulatory work, would affect the health and life expectancy of U.S. residents.

Scientists who haven’t been directly impacted by funding cuts or firings are still facing a “climate of fear,” Woolf said. In the letter, he and other signatories wrote that the Trump administration’s current investigations of more than 50 universities as part of an anti-DEI effort send a “chilling message” to scientists that their research is in danger of being censored on ideological grounds.

Firings of scientists have continued since the letter’s release: Today, the Department of Health and Human Services began sending notices of termination after announcing a plan to cut 10,000 employees from the agency. Federal scientists at other agencies such as NASA, USGS, NOAA, and the EPA have begun similar terminations, though federal judges have ordered some of these firings to be reversed. 

“We all benefit from science, and we all stand to lose if the nation’s research enterprise is destroyed,” the letter stated. 

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2024. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

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