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The correlation between Arctic wildfires and abnormal snow cover under global warming is of growing concern. A comprehensive quantitative assessment by researchers at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) has shown that increasingly frequent seasonal wildland fires across the Arctic in recent years have delayed snow cover formation by at least five days and could lead to a future 18-day reduction of snow cover duration, with implications for global ecosystems.

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Understanding the paleoclimate of Mars is essential for gaining insights into Mars’ early history and atmospheric conditions. Such information is the key to learning why Mars shifted from a potentially warm, wet planet to the cold, dry desert we see now; whether climate change was gradual or catastrophic, thus informing how terrestrial planets evolve over billions of years.

Moreland et al. [2025] use an adapted lake energy balance model to investigate the connections between Martian geology and climate. By combining climate input from the Mars Weather Research & Forecasting general circulation model with geologic constraints from Curiosity rover observations, the study contributes to resolve the historic disconnect between the modeling results that suggest cold climate and the geologic evidence that liquid water was retained into Mars’ lakes. By concluding that relatively small lakes with a relatively limited water input and seasonal ice cover could retain seasonal liquid water for long times under Mars’ paleoclimate, the authors provide groundbreaking findings to inform climate models and enhance our understanding of conditions on early Mars.  

Citation: Moreland, E. L., Dee, S. G., Jiang, Y., Bischof, G., Mischna, M. A., Hartigan, N., et al. (2026). Seasonal ice cover could allow liquid lakes to persist in a cold Mars paleoclimate. AGU Advances, 7, e2025AV001891. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001891

—Alberto Montanari, Editor-in-Chief, AGU Advances

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Sargassum has a bad reputation for washing up on shorelines, rotting on the beach, and creating a stinky mess. But this marine algae also functions as a habitat for many marine species, and new research published in Nature Geoscience indicates that its biomass has significantly declined where it once flourished: Since 2015, the amount of Sargassum in the northern Sargasso Sea has decreased by more than 90%. That change is likely caused by a reduced supply of healthy algae from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are rising, the researchers suggest.

“This is the only sea on Earth that has no physical boundaries.”

The floating brown algae known as Sargassum is found throughout the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. (Other species exist in the Pacific.) A region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean is even named in its honor: the Sargasso Sea. Rafts of Sargassum measuring tens of meters wide and several kilometers long frequently form in the Sargasso Sea, and marine life ranging from crabs to shrimp to sea turtles takes refuge in the nooks and crannies afforded by its leaves and air-filled bladders.

The Sargasso Sea is a geographical anomaly when it comes to bodies of water—it’s bounded by ocean currents, not land. “This is the only sea on Earth that has no physical boundaries,” said Chuanmin Hu, an optical oceanographer at the University of South Florida in Tampa and the senior author of the new study.

Spotting Algae from Space

To better understand how Sargassum populations have shifted over time in the Sargasso Sea and beyond, Hu and his colleagues mined archival satellite data. The team focused on observations made from 2000 to 2023 with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, which collects data in the near- and midinfrared ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum. That spectral coverage is important because Sargassum, like all other vegetation, strongly reflects near-infrared light; ocean water, on the other hand, does not.

“Sargassum has a different signal than the background ocean water,” said Hu.

The team, coled by Yingjun Zhang, Brian Barnes, and Deborah Goodwin, exploited that telltale sign to estimate the amount of algae present in various swaths of water. The researchers focused on six geographic regions that cumulatively spanned more than 40° in latitude and 90° in longitude. The team was able to detect Sargassum where the fractional areal coverage of the algae was as low as 1 part in 500. Typically, when Sargassum is present, there’s about 5 times that much of it in an average pixel, said Barnes, a satellite oceanographer at the University of South Florida in St. Petersburg.

The Northern Sargasso Sea, with Less Sargassum

The researchers found that Sargassum populations in the northern part of the Sargasso Sea have decreased dramatically since 2015—the satellite data revealed a roughly twelvefold drop in average biomass between 2000–2014 datasets and 2015–2023 datasets. (Measurements from the team’s shipboard surveys showed that Sargassum density declined by only about 50% over the same time period, but the team noted that those in situ data are sparse and potentially suffer from sampling bias.) If the satellite data are reflecting reality—and it’s likely that they are—that’s a substantial decrease in Sargassum, said Barnes. “There’s so much less now.”

At the same time, there’s been a proliferation of Sargassum in the so-called Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt. This 9,000-kilometer-wide swath of the ocean stretching from western Africa to the Gulf of Mexico saw an uptick in Sargassum beginning in 2011 that hasn’t abated. But it’s not as though the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt is robbing the northern Sargasso Sea of its algae. The Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt is playing a role in the demise in the northern Sargasso Sea, but the largest changes are likely caused by shifting conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, the team surmised.

The agent that facilitates all of these connections? That’s ocean currents, said Zhang, an oceanographer at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego. The Sargasso Sea and the Gulf of Mexico may be thousands of kilometers apart, but they’re nonetheless linked by waters on the move.

Algae on a Journey

Satellite data have shown that the Gulf of Mexico is one of the key sources of Sargassum that ultimately ends up in the northern Sargasso Sea. The algae makes a journey that lasts several months: From the Gulf of Mexico, Sargassum hitches a ride on ocean currents—namely, the Loop Current and the Florida Current—before getting swept up in the Gulf Stream. It then makes its way along the East Coast of the United States before finally reaching the northern Sargasso Sea.

But sea surface temperatures have been rising in the Gulf of Mexico in recent years, often reaching more than 30°C in the summertime. Sargassum prefers temperatures ranging from 23°C to 28°C, and heat-stressed algae are less likely to survive the monthslong journey to the northern Sargasso Sea, said Hu. “During the long-distant transport, most of it will die.”

“You have a one-two punch.”

That makes sense, said William Hernandez, an oceanographer at the University of Puerto Rico–Mayaguez who was not involved in the research. Sargassum stressed by high temperature is less likely to take up nutrients and grow adequately, he said. “It’s the same thing that you see in terrestrial vegetation.”

In addition to heat stress, Sargassum in the Gulf of Mexico is also likely suffering from a lack of nutrients. That’s because the plentiful Sargassum in the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt is gobbling up necessary compounds like phosphorus and sulfates, said Hernandez. So when currents off the coast of South America and in the Caribbean sweep water into the Gulf of Mexico, they’re transporting something that’s essentially already been picked over, he said. “By the time those waters reach that area, they’ve already been depleted of their nutrients.”

The combined effects of heat stress and limited nutrients really wallop Sargassum populations, said Hernandez. “You have a one-two punch.” There might well be ecological repercussions to having less Sargassum in the northern Sargasso Sea, the team suggests. Fish and other creatures rely on Sargassum for habitat, so less algae could translate into measurable impacts on other animals. Collecting in situ animal data in the Sargasso Sea will help answer that question, said Hu. “There should be impacts on other animals. Is that the case?”

—Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), Science Writer

Citation: Kornei, K. (2026), The northern Sargasso Sea has lost much of its namesake algae, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260014. Published on 8 January 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Source: AGU Advances

Heat waves are becoming commonplace, and so too is high humidity, which can strain the electrical grid, hurt the economy, and endanger human health. But the global prevalence of record-breaking humidity events, some of which approach the physiological limit of what humans can safely handle—and all of which go beyond local expectations and adaptations—has not been widely studied.

To remedy that oversight, Raymond et al. used data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) and several other sources to establish the most intense humid heat that has occurred in recent years across the globe. They then used several climate models to estimate where instances of even more severe humid heat are most likely to occur in the future.

Relative to the local climate, humid heat can be most extreme in the Middle East and North Africa, with tropical regions coming in a close second, the researchers found. In these locales, the wet-bulb temperature (a measure of humid heat) is capable of reaching 4–5 standard deviations above the average for the warm season. The Middle East and North Africa are also among the regions that experience the longest stretches of humid heat, sometimes lasting 20 or more days.

Estimates of overall humid heat likelihood are very sensitive to a few extremely hot, humid days, the researchers found. In many locations, removing a single outlier led statistical models to predict fivefold fewer hot, humid days in the future. The finding highlights the need for accurate observational data, the researchers write.

Humid heat is particularly dangerous when it comes in spurts, offering areas little relief for concentrated periods. In the tropics, three quarters of the days when the wet-bulb temperature was in the top 5% occurred in only a quarter of the years included in the study. This is likely largely because El Niño heightens both atmospheric temperature and moisture levels, so record-setting days in the tropics tend to cluster in years when this weather pattern is active.

The researchers note that 2023 was a banner year for humid heat, with 23 different regions setting records. That’s entirely because of climate change, the researchers’ work suggests: Otherwise, no records would have been broken. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001963, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2026), Temperatures are rising, but what about humidity?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260020. Published on 8 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

SummaryTime-domain induced polarization (TDIP) data carry spectral information that can be used for petrophysical interpretation. At the same time, TDIP data can be collected in the field more efficiently than frequency-domain induced polarization (FDIP) data, thanks to the use of square-wave signals. However, TDIP field data are prone to noise, particularly strong near industrial installations and urban areas, above conductive media and in cases where little current is injected. The integral chargeability is a useful parameter to smoothen out the signal but it precludes any spectral interpretation. Debye decomposition (DD) is recognized as one of the best methods for spectral interpretation but the extracted parameters are particularly affected by data noise. More generally, processing TDIP data before further analysis, such as inversion or spectral analysis, is usually necessary for any quantitative interpretation. We propose here an automatic processing algorithm, based on the Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts (KWW) function, which is very close to the Havriliak-Negami model in frequency-domain, that fulfills this need. The processing is completed by an empirical handling of early-time electromagnetic coupling effects to improve the overall performance. The resulting procedure, tested and validated on three datasets that cover a large range of contexts, electrode configurations and acquisition settings, is available as open-source MATLAB scripts. The proposed approach is especially useful for further extracting spectral information from TDIP data through DD. Thanks to the theoretical framework offered by the KWW function, the behavior of the integral chargeability could be investigated in a systematic manner, using both synthetic and field TDIP data. Recommendations could be formulated on how to make use of the spectral information, while keeping the automatic processing transparent and accessible to unexperienced users. This work advances the use of TDIP in the field of environmental geophysics.

SummaryJoint petrophysical inversion is a powerful technique for using multiple geophysical modalities to estimate petrophysical or geotechnical parameters of the subsurface. A precise knowledge of the petrophysical laws for the full model domain is imperative to enable petrophysical coupling. In this work, we investigate the effect of partially invalid petrophysical laws on the inversion of a synthetic data set, using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and seismic traveltime data to image a CO2 plume in a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) setup. We consider a model consisting of a reservoir and a caprock in which only the reservoir can be described by a petrophysical law. We first apply a conventional (joint) petrophysical inversion (JPI) and show that the use of wrong petrophysical laws leads to systemic artefacts within the parts of the model in which the petrophysical relations are invalid. We then present a new hybrid partially petrophysically coupled joint inversion (P-JPI) approach that combines petrophysical coupling for regions with valid petrophysical laws, and structural coupling, whenever no reliable petrophysical laws are available. The P-JPI approach outperforms tomography based on the individual ERT or seismic data set, as well as joint structural inversion (JSI) based on the cross-gradient functional. The partially petrophysically coupled joint inversion thus enables petrophysical coupling and provides a unique, quantitatively interpretable saturation model for the CO2-plume. We further show that it is possible to detect zones with incorrect petrophysical relations by analysing the difference of the model updates based on the stand-alone data sets. Finally, we combine the detection of zones of incorrect petrophysical laws with the P-JPI to derive an inversion scheme that is independent of prior knowledge of the validity of petrophysical laws. Our novel methods facilitate direct estimation of the petrophysical subsurface parameters from multiple geophysical measurements if petrophysical relations are only available for parts of the model domain and provide means to quantify the spatial extent of regions where the petrophysical relations are valid.

SummaryThe rapid and accurate estimation of strong ground motion is essential for seismic hazard assessment and near-real-time disaster response. Although empirical ground motion models enable fast intensity predictions, they simplify the underlying physics and exhibit large uncertainties. Conversely, physics-based simulations — while capable of more accurately predicting ground shaking — are computationally expensive, making them impractical for large-scale hazard assessments and real-time event response. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel two-step machine learning framework that predicts peak ground velocity (PGV) for arbitrary double-couple sources positioned anywhere within a given medium, combining the accuracy of physics-based models with near-instantaneous inference. In the first step, an ensemble of XGBoost predictors, trained on a reciprocal Green’s function database, generates a sparsely sampled PGV map for any input source. In the second step, we refine this map into a continuous spatial prediction. By leveraging Green’s function reciprocity, our approach reduces the required number of simulations in training, lowering both computational cost and storage demands. Our framework provides spatially continuous PGV predictions and inherently accounts for complex 3D geological and topographic effects. It can deliver results within seconds while maintaining accuracy up to the highest frequency captured in the physics-based simulations. This makes PGVnet ideal for applications such as rapid earthquake disaster response, as well as large-scale probabilistic seismic hazard analyses and multi-hazard digital ecosystems. Validated in the geologically complex San Francisco Bay Area, our approach generates PGV maps consistent with physics-based simulations, offering an effective balance between computational speed and accuracy.

How do avalanches affect pylons and other sensitive infrastructure? Using detailed simulations, SLF researcher Michael Kohler has shown that the compressibility of snow initially reduces avalanche pressure, but that at high speeds this buffer suddenly fails.

Globally, toxic algal blooms are becoming more frequent and severe, fueled by a warming climate and nutrient runoff. While satellites can easily spot the green carpets once they reach the surface, the "prequels" to these outbreaks remain hidden in the deep.

Oxygen isotopes data enable researchers to look far back into the geologic past and reconstruct the climate of the past. In doing so, they consider several factors such as ocean temperature and ice volume in polar regions. A new publication by an international team from Bergen (Norway) and Bremen in Nature Geoscience concludes that the Antarctic ice sheet was less dynamic during the Oligocene epoch 34 to 23 million years ago than previously assumed.

NASA astronaut Nichole Ayers captured this image of lightning while orbiting aboard the International Space Station more than 250 miles above Milan, Italy on July 1, 2025.

The extent and speed of ice moving off the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica into the sea—an important dynamic for climate and sea-rise modeling—has been captured over a 10-year period by satellites from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission.

Alaska's glaciers are melting at an accelerating pace, losing roughly 60 billion tons of ice each year. About 4,000 kilometers to the south, in California and Nevada, records for heat and dryness are being shattered, creating favorable conditions for wildfire events.

Climate change has many culprits, from agriculture to transportation to energy production. Now, add another: the deep ocean salty blob.

Think of the destruction of Earth's rainforests and a familiar image may come to mind: fires or chainsaws tearing through enormous swaths of the Amazon, releasing masses of planet-warming carbon dioxide.

Recent reports of wells drying up in New Hampshire reflect a pattern we're increasingly seeing across New England: extended dry periods and below-normal precipitation are stressing shallow groundwater systems that many homeowners depend on.

The natural sands of beaches along the Firth of Forth are being mixed with significant amounts of human-made materials like bricks, concrete, glass and industrial waste, new research has revealed.

On clear days in Hartbeespoort, South Africa, satellite images often reveal a reservoir with shades of deep blue interrupted by drifting patches of vivid green. These shifting features indicate algae blooms, which can affect water quality, ecosystems, and nearby human communities.

The universe never fails to surprise. Take TOI-561 b, an Earth-sized exoplanet that circles its star on an orbit more than 30 times smaller than Mercury’s.

Despite being blasted by radiation to the point that its rocky surface is likely molten, TOI-561 b still seems to retain a thick atmosphere. This discovery, reported in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, shows that even highly irradiated planets—whose atmospheres should have been eroded long ago—can remain enshrouded in gas for billions of years.

Lava World

When it comes to constellations, Sextans (the Sextant) is largely unremarkable; its brightest stars can’t even be seen with the naked eye from a large city. But there’s a star in Sextans that is home to a miniature solar system: TOI-561, roughly twice as old as the Sun, has four planets orbiting it. And the innermost of those planets, known as TOI-561 b, holds the special honor of being what’s called an ultrashort-period exoplanet. That’s a world no larger than twice the radius of Earth that whips around its host star in 1 day or less.

“We do not expect that an atmosphere can survive.”

Ultrashort-period exoplanets are rare—only several dozen are known to exist—and they’re extreme: They orbit so close to their host stars that they typically have dayside temperatures above the melting point of rock, leading researchers to dub them “lava worlds.” Ultrashort-period exoplanets are also planets on a journey—it’s thought that they formed farther away from their stars and migrated inward over time.

Many ultrashort-period exoplanets observed to date also don’t have atmospheres. That makes sense, said Rafael Luque, an astrophysicist at the Institute of Astrophysics of Andalusia in Granada, Spain, not involved in the new research. These extreme worlds are literally being irradiated by their host stars, he said. “We do not expect that an atmosphere can survive.”

A Puffed-Up World?

Earlier observations revealed both the size and mass of TOI-561 b. Taken together, those data suggest an anomalously low density for the planet, roughly 4.3 grams per cubic centimeter. (Earth’s average density, for comparison, is about 5.5 grams per cubic centimeter.)

There are several explanations for that finding, said Nicole Wallack, an astronomer at Carnegie Science in Washington, D.C., and a member of the research team. For instance, TOI-561 b might lack an iron core. But a more likely scenario is that it’s a puffed-up planet that appears larger and therefore less dense than it actually is, said Wallack.

And a thick atmosphere is the most logical culprit for a puffed-up exoplanet, she explained. “It could have an atmosphere that’s making the planet appear larger in radius but isn’t influencing its mass as much.”

To test that idea, Wallack and her colleagues, led by Johanna Teske, an astronomer at Carnegie Science, recently observed TOI-561 b and its host star using the James Webb Space Telescope. The researchers collected near-infrared observations of four orbits of the planet, each of which lasted only about 11 hours.

“Atmospheres are much better than solid rocks are at transporting heat.”

For this new study, the team focused on data collected around the time of so-called secondary eclipse. That’s when a planet passes behind its star, as seen from a telescope’s perspective. By comparing observations recorded when the star and planet are both visible to those recorded when just the star is visible, it’s possible to home in on just the signal from the planet, said Wallack. For TOI-561 b, the team divided that planet signal into seven near-infrared wavelength bins and looked at how the light was distributed as a function of wavelength.

That investigation allowed the team to estimate the approximate temperature of TOI-561 b: about 1,700–2,200 K. That’s significantly cooler than the roughly 3,000 K expected on the basis of the temperature of the star and TOI-561 b’s distance from it. “The planet appears to be colder than we would have expected,” said Wallack.

An atmosphere is the best explanation for that discrepancy, Teske and her colleagues proposed. The presence of an atmosphere would allow heat to be redistributed away from a planet’s warmer dayside and toward its cooler nightside. That process of heat distribution is much more efficient than relying on rocks to do the same thing, said Wallack. “Atmospheres are much better than solid rocks are at transporting heat.”

TOI-561 b might not be a complete outlier when it comes to having an atmosphere. After all, a handful of other ultrashort-period exoplanets, such as 55 Cancri e, are believed to be enshrouded in gas.

Hunting for Molecules

After analyzing the Webb observations, the researchers modeled signals that would be expected from an atmosphere containing varying proportions of molecules such as water, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide. They found that their data were no more consistent with one model than another. The relatively wide spectral binning that the team adopted—just seven data points over a range of roughly 2.7–5.1 micrometers—may have precluded detecting any molecule-specific features, the team concluded.

Even though the composition of TOI-561 b’s atmosphere remains inconclusive, there’s good evidence that it exists, said Michael Zhang, an astronomer at the University of Chicago not involved in the research. “I believe that there is an atmosphere.”

And that atmosphere is most likely composed of material outgassed from TOI-561 b’s molten surface. That inference can guide logical follow-on work modeling the planet’s atmosphere, said Zhang. “You can test compositions that you expect would be outgassed from the magma ocean.”

Analyzing TOI-561 b’s nightside signal—something that’s possible with the researchers’ current dataset—will also be important, said Zhang. It’s a tough measurement to make, but because atmospheres are good at redistributing heat, he explained, even the side of TOI-561 b facing away from its star should be detectable. “The nightside should be warm.”

—Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), Science Writer

Citation: Kornei, K. (2026), A “lava world” unexpectedly hosts an atmosphere, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260019. Published on 7 January 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

An fascinating case study from the 24 June 2025 Granizal landslide in Medellín, Colombia, which killed 27 people and destroyed 50 homes, shows demonstrates that it is not just the urban poor that are exposed to landslides.

That urban areas can be subject to high levels of landslide risk is well-established – commonly cited examples are Hong Kong (which has a huge programme to manage the risk), Sao Paolo and Medellín, amongst other places. The well-established pattern is that it is the urban poor that have the highest levels of risk, being forced to live on slopes on the margins of the conurbation, often with poor planning and low levels of maintenance of, for example, drainage systems.

A fascinating open access paper (Ozturk et al. 2025) has just been published in the journal Landslides that suggests that this pattern might be beginning to change under the impacts of climate change. The paper examines the 24 June 2025 Granizal landslide in Medellín, Colombia, which killed 27 people and destroyed 50 houses. I wrote about this landslide at the time, including this image of the upper part of the landslide:-

The main body of the 25 June 2025 landslide at Granizal in Colombia. Still from a video posted to Youtube by Cubrinet.

The location of the headscarp of the Granizal landslide is [6.29587, -75.52722].

The analysis of Ozturk et al. (2025) shows that this is a 75,000 cubic metre failure with a source area length of 143 m and a width of 50 m. The landslide was triggered by rainfall over a 36 hour period.

The authors’ analysis suggests that the landslide occurred on terrain that is steep even by the standards of Medellín, and at a comparably high elevation for the city. They have then looked at the distribution of income tax bands for the city according to both elevation and slope angle:-

Hillslope angle (a) and elevation (b) of the built up area in Medellín, categorized by utility tax, known as Strata, which determines the socio-economic status of different neighbourhoods. For example, the utility tax decreases as the categories get lower. Hillslope angle increases generally towards poorer categories. Figure from Oztuk et al. (2025), with the caption lightly edited.

The diagram shows that in Medellín, the poorest people live on the steepest slopes, and thus (at the first order) are more at risk of landslides. People with higher income levels tend to live on areas with a lower slope angle – the more affluent you are, the lower your landslide risk. However, this pattern reverses for those in the highest tax band (i.e. the richest). Those people live on steeper slopes (although not as steep as for the poorest people).

A similar pattern emerges for elevation, although the pattern is weaker. But compare Utility tax categories 5 and 6 for example – the richest people migrate to higher elevations.

This probably represents a desire by the most affluent to live in locations with the best views and in which they can have larger plots of land. A similar pattern is seen elsewhere – for example, property prices in The Peak in Hong Kong are very high.

It has been possible to live in these higher risk locations because of good identification of hazards for those that can afford it, the use of engineering approaches to mitigate the hazard and good maintenance of drains. These options are available to those with money, who live in “formal neighbourhoods” rather than unplanned communities. Of course, as Ozturk et al. (2025) remind us, the vulnerability of these communities is still much lower than that of the poor.

But Ozturk et al. (2025) make a really important point:-

“…we should not forget that climate change is gradually intensifying and may soon render the design criteria used for planning formal neighbourhoods obsolete. Hence, our concluding message is that future rainfall changes may also lead to catastrophic landslide impacts in formally planned urban neighbourhoods, challenging the assumption that only informal settlements are at high risk.”

The vulnerability of the poorest communities means that this is where the highest risk will continue to be located, and this is where the greatest levels of loss will occur. But our rapidly changing environment means that even more affluent communities are facing increasing levels of risk.

Reference

Ozturk, U., Braun, A., Gómez-Zapata, J.C. et al. 2025. Urban poor are the most endangered by socio-natural hazards, but not exclusively: the 2025 Granizal Landslide case. Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-025-02680-y

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