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Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Thu, 05/23/2024 - 14:29

Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.

Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Thu, 05/23/2024 - 14:29

Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.

Отдел физики околоземного космического пространства

Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems

Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)

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