Feed aggregator

The Mediterranean Sea releases approximately 1 Sv of water into the North Atlantic through the Gibraltar Straits, forming the saline Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW). Its impact on large-scale flow and specifically its northbound Lagrangian pathways are widely debated, yet a comprehensive overview of MOW pathways over recent decades is lacking. We calculate and analyze synthetic Lagrangian trajectories in 1980–2020 reanalysis velocity data. Sixteen percent of the MOW follow a direct northbound path to the sub-polar gyre, reaching a 1,000 m depth crossing window at the southern tip of Rockall Ridge in about 10 years. Surprisingly, time-dependent chaotic advection, not steady currents, drives over half of the northbound transport. Our results suggest a potential 15–20 years predictability in the direct northbound transport. Additionally, monthly variability appears more significant than inter-annual variability in Lagrangian mixing and spreading the MOW.

Large-scale seepage faces occur on tidal flats with gentle slope, which are widely distributed worldwide. Evaporation on these seepage faces, leading to salt retention and accumulation, may significantly impact the density-dependent groundwater flow beneath the tidal flats. However, due to nonlinear complexities of the groundwater flow and solute transport on seepage faces, explicit boundary conditions and numerical models to quantify these processes are lacking. In this study, we present both mathematical and numerical models to quantify these processes. Compared to the results of our previous study, this paper shows that seepage-face evaporation can (a) significantly increase the groundwater salinity in the upper intertidal zone, and form multiple groundwater circulation cells in the intertidal zone, (b) cause the disappearance of multiple seepage-faces and reduce the spatial extent of seepage faces notably, (c) and intensify the groundwater and salt exchange as well as the seawater-groundwater circulation through the intertidal zone.

Extreme heat events (EHEs) often hit North China, resulting in significant losses. The devastating EHE in the 1743 summer, marked as the highest temperature in the past 300 years, led to ∼11,000 fatalities. These historical EHEs prompt us to explore potential mechanisms beyond anthropogenic influences. We employ the Norwegian Earth System Model here to simulate the past millennium climate and then dynamically downscale the July 1743 event using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The successful simulation of warming in North China, although it has been a fortunate outcome, is supported by tree-ring records, providing a compelling case study for the event. Through composite and case analyses, we discover a connection between EHEs and active Northeast China Vortexes (NCVs) which induce warm advection, consequently heating the lower atmosphere. Reanalysis further confirms the connection in the modern era. Our study suggests modeling past EHEs, while challenging, is indeed feasible.

The East China Sea Kuroshio (ECS-Kuroshio) and the Ryukyu Current are the major poleward heat carriers in the North Pacific. Anomalous changes of ECS-Kuroshio and Ryukyu Current could exert substantial influence on the climate in mid-latitude regions. However, owing to limited observations and coarse resolution of climate models, how they might change under anthropogenic warming remains unknown. Here, we find an accelerating ECS-Kuroshio (1.5 Sv) and a decelerating (−2.2 Sv) Ryukyu Current using in-situ observation during 1958–2022, equivalent to 7% strengthening and 20% weakening in the 65 years. The trend is also simulated by four high-resolution climate models, with multi-model ensemble-mean acceleration (deceleration) of the ECS-Kuroshio (Ryukyu Current) of 1.2 ± 0.6 Sv (−6.2 ± 2.5 Sv) over 1950–2050. The weakening subtropical wind field reduces their summed transport o. Enhanced stratification, which induces uplift of current system and weaker topography-flow interaction, leads to the intensifying ECS-Kuroshio and disappearing Ryukyu Current.

As the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried by the solar wind encounters the martian atmosphere, it tends to pile up and drape around the planet, forming looping magnetic fields and inducing marsward ion flows on the nightside. Previous statistical observations revealed asymmetrical distribution features within this morphology; however, the underlying physical mechanism remains unclear. In this study, utilizing a three-dimensional multi-fluid magnetohydrodynamic simulation model, we successfully reproduce the asymmetrical distributions of the looping magnetic fields and corresponding marsward flows on the martian nightside. Analyzing the magnetic forces resulting from the bending of the IMF over the polar area, we find that the asymmetry is guided by the orientation of the solar wind motional electric field (E SW ). A higher solar wind velocity leads to enhanced magnetic forces, resulting in more tightly wrapped magnetic fields with an increased efficiency in accelerating flows as they approach closer to Mars.

The direct radiative forcing (RF) from halocarbons is reasonably well characterized. However, the forcing due to polyatomic halogen reservoir and halocarbon breakdown products has not previously been quantified and it is important to estimate this contribution. Four gases, ClONO2, COCl2, COF2 and COClF, are considered; their stratospheric abundances mostly originate from the breakdown of chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons and CCl4. They have significant mid-infrared absorption bands and peak stratospheric mole fractions ranging from around 20 ppt to over 1 ppb, which are large compared to typical abundances of many emitted halocarbons. Using satellite observations of stratospheric abundance, observed infrared spectra, and a narrow-band radiation code, the stratosphere-adjusted radiative forcings (SARF) is computed. The global-annual mean SARF is estimated to be 7 ± 0.8 mW m−2 based on measured abundances in the period 2004–2019, with ClONO2 contributing about 50%. Whilst not a major contributor to anthropogenic RF, only six individual halocarbon gases cause a significantly greater forcing. This forcing is then approximately attributed to their source gases; for most, it modestly enhances (by 1%–3%) both their direct RF and their global warming potentials. The most significant enhancement (5%–15%) is to CCl4, the principal source of stratospheric COCl2 and contributor to ClONO2 abundances; disagreement in recent satellite-based COCl2 retrievals is a significant source of uncertainty. These additional gases enhance the available best estimate of the total forcing due to halocarbon source gases (including e.g., ozone depletion) by about 3%; notably, this is the only identified indirect mechanism that increases, rather than decreases, total halocarbon forcing.

Recent studies have demonstrated great values of deep-learning (DL) methods for improving El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. However, the black-box nature of DL makes it challenging to physically interpret mechanisms responsible for successful ENSO predictions. Here, we demonstrate an interpretable method by performing perturbation experiments to predictors and quantifying input-output relationships in predictions by using a transformer-based model; ENSO-related thermal precursors serving as initial conditions during multi-month time intervals (TIs) are identified in the equatorial-northern Pacific, acting to precondition input predictors to provide for long-lead ENSO predictability. Results reveal the existence of upper-ocean temperature anomaly pathways and consistent phase propagations of thermal precursors around the tropical Pacific. It is illustrated that three-dimensional thermal fields and their basinwide evolution during long TIs act to enhance long-lead prediction skills of ENSO. These physically explainable results indicate that neural networks can adequately represent predictable precursors in the input predictors for successful ENSO predictions.

Objectively exploring global variations in crust and upper mantle structure helps constrain fundamental aspects of Earth's plate tectonic and convective processes. Here we adopted a Variational Auto-Encoder to explore the degrees of freedom of global Rayleigh wave dispersion maps at 4–40 mHz. We found that two latent variables sufficiently represent the global variations, suggesting inherent coupling between crustal and mantle seismic properties. We propose that the two extracted latent variables mostly correspond with crustal thickness and upper mantle thermal structure. The first variable shows low values for continental mountain belts and ocean spreading ridges, contrasted by high values for abyssal plains. The second variable shows low values for most oceanic lithosphere and Phanerozoic continental areas, contrasted by high values for Archean cratons. Latent space correlations indicate that continental lithosphere has more strongly coupled depth features than beneath the oceans, which might be a consequence of its longevity.

Understanding grounding line dynamics is critical for projecting glacier evolution and sea level rise. Observations from satellite radar interferometry reveal rapid grounding line migration forced by oceanic tides that are several kilometers larger than predicted by hydrostatic equilibrium, indicating the transition from grounded to floating ice is more complex than previously thought. Recent studies suggest seawater intrusion beneath grounded ice may play a role in driving rapid ice loss. Here, we investigate its impact on the evolution of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, using an ice sheet model. We compare model results with observed changes in grounding line position, velocity, and ice elevation between 2010 and 2022. We match the observed retreat, speed up, and thinning using 3-km-long seawater intrusion that drive peak ice melt rates of 50 m/yr; but we cannot obtain the same agreement without seawater intrusion. Including seawater intrusion in glacier modeling will increase the sensitivity to ocean warming.

A THz radar, with its wide bandwidth, is capable of high-resolution imaging down to the centimeter scale. In this study, a THz radar is applied to detect hydrometeors generated in a spray chamber. The observed backscattering signals show fluctuations at centimeter scales, indicating various hydrometeor distribution patterns along the radar beam. A co-located High-Speed Imaging (HSI) sensor is used to measure the Drop Size Distributions (DSD) in the spray chamber. The radar sampling beam is well aligned with the HSI probes, allowing an objective comparison between the remote sensing and in situ observations. In this study, the observed radar power is compared with the power estimated from the HSI measurements. Results show great consistency, with power difference smaller than 0.5 dB. This study demonstrates the feasibility and great potential of using a THz radar for ultra-high-resolution observations of clouds in a laboratory facility, and in the real atmosphere.

Climate models robustly project acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in response to climate change. However, the BDC trends simulated by comprehensive models are poorly constrained by observations, which cannot even determine the sign of potential trends. Additionally, the changing structure of the troposphere and stratosphere has received increasing attention in recent years. The extent to which vertical shifts of the circulation are driving the acceleration is under debate. In this study, we present a novel method that enables the attribution of advective BDC changes to structural changes of the circulation and of the stratosphere itself. Using this method allows studying the advective BDC trends in unprecedented detail and sheds new light into discrepancies between different data sets (reanalyses and models) at the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere. Our findings provide insights into the reliability of model projections of BDC changes and offer new possibilities for observational constraints.

The Venusian atmosphere hosts a 10 km deep convective layer that has been studied by various spacecrafts. However, the impact of the strong vertical mixing on the chemistry of this region is still unknown. This study presents the first realistic coupling between resolved small-scale turbulence and a chemical network. The resulting vertical mixing is different for each species: those with longer chemical timescales will tend to be well-mixed. Vertical eddy diffusion due to resolved convection motions was estimated, ranging from 102 to 104 m2/s for the 48–55 km convective layer, several orders of magnitude above the typically used value. In the 48–55 km convective layer, the impact of the small-scale turbulence on the cloud layer boundaries was between 200 m and 1 km. The impact of turbulence on cloud chemistry is consistent with Venus Express/Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer observations. The observability at the cloud-top of small-scale turbulence by VenSpec-U spectrometer would be challenging.

Infrared (IR) luminosity of lightning channel in the 3–5 μm range usually persisted throughout the entire interstroke interval, which is in contrast to the simultaneously recorded visible (0.4–0.8 μm) luminosity that always decayed to an undetectable level prior to a subsequent return stroke pulse. A longer visible luminosity period at the end of flash tended to be associated with a longer IR afterglow period following the decay of visible luminosity (and by inference current) to an undetectable level. At the end of flash, the IR luminosity persisted up to about 1 s, and the median IR afterglow duration was a factor of 10 longer than the median visible luminosity duration. The IR luminosity often exhibited a hump when the visible luminosity was monotonically decaying or undetectable, with the corresponding channel temperature being likely around 3400 K.

An accurate solar wind (SW) speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning SW—magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetic field maps, considering a SW source surface of R SS = 2.5R⊙, aiming to predict the SW speed at the Lagrange-1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four PFSS magnetic field maps at R SS, which are three, four, five, and six days before the target epoch. Reduced maps are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetic field maps at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the quasi-continuous test data set, which is generated by randomly assigning 120 data segments that are individually continuous in time, with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.53 ± 0.07 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 ± 4.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the SW, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

A coronal mass ejection erupted from the Sun on 21 April 2023 and created a G4 geomagnetic storm on 23 April. NASA's global-scale observations of the limb and disk (GOLD) imager observed bright equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crests at ∼25° Mlat, ∼11° poleward from their average locations, computed by averaging the EIA crests during the previous geomagnetic quiet days (18–22 April) between ∼15°W and 5°W Glon. Reversed C-shape equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) were observed reaching ∼±36° Mlat (∼40°N and ∼30°S Glat) with apex altitudes ∼4,000 km and large westward tilts of ∼52°. Using GOLD's observations EPBs zonal motions are derived. It is observed that the EPBs zonal velocities are eastward near the equator and westward at mid-latitudes. Model-predicted prompt penetration electric fields indicate that they may have affected the postsunset pre-reversal enhancement at equatorial latitudes. Zonal ion drifts from a defense meteorological satellite program satellite suggest that westward neutral winds and perturbed westward ion drifts over mid-latitudes contributed to the observed latitudinal shear in zonal drifts.

Atmospheric aerosols not only cause severe haze pollution, but also affect climate through changes in cloud properties. However, during the haze pollution, aerosol-cloud interactions are not well understood due to a lack of in situ observations. In this study, we conducted simultaneous observations of cloud droplet and particle number size distribution, together with supporting atmospheric parameters, from ground to cloud base in East China using a high-payload tethered airship. We found that high concentrations of aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei were constrained below cloud, leading to the pronounced “Twomey effect” near the cloud base. The cloud inhibited the pollutants dispersion by reducing surface heat flux and thus deteriorated the near-surface haze pollution. Satellite retrievals matched well with the in situ observations for low stratus clouds, while were insufficient to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions for other cases. Our results highlight the importance to combine in situ vertical and satellite observations to quantify the aerosol-cloud interactions.

Freezing temperature parameterization significantly impacts the heat balance at sea-ice bottom and, consequently, the simulated sea-ice thickness. Here, the single-column model ICEPACK was used to investigate the impact of the freezing temperature parameterization on the simulated sea-ice thermodynamic growth during the MOSAiC expedition from October 2019 to September 2020. It is shown that large model errors exist with the standard parameterization and that different formulations for calculating the freezing temperature impact the simulated sea-ice thickness significantly. Considering the winter mixed layer temperature, a modified parameterization of the freezing point temperature based on Mushy scheme was developed. The mean absolute error (ratio) of simulating sea-ice thickness for all buoys reduces from 7.4 cm (4.9%) with the “Millero” scheme, which performs the best among the existing schemes in the ICEPACK model, to 4.2 cm (2.9%) with the new developed scheme.

The Emirates Mars Ultraviolet Spectrometer (EMUS), aboard the Emirates Mars Mission (EMM), has been conducting observations of ultraviolet emissions within the Martian exosphere. Taking advantage of the distinctive orbit of the EMM around Mars, EMUS utilizes a dedicated strafe observation strategy to scan the illuminated Martian exosphere at tangential altitudes ranging from 130 to over 20,000 km. To distinguish between emissions of Martian origin and those from the interplanetary background, EMUS conducts specialized background observations by looking away from the planet. This approach has allowed us to investigate the radial and seasonal variations in Martian coronal emission features at H Lyman-α, β and γ wavelengths. Our analysis supports the previous studies indicating that Martian exospheric hydrogen Lyman emission brightness attains its highest levels around the southern summer solstice and reaches its lowest levels when Mars is near aphelion. Additionally, a secondary peak emission at all altitudes is observed after perihelion during Martian Year (MY) 36, which can be attributed to a Class C dust storm. Our study establishes a strong correlation between solar flux and coronal brightness for these emissions, highlighting the impact of solar activity on the visibility of Martian corona. In addition, we have examined interannual variability and found that emission intensities in MY 37 surpassed those in MY 36, primarily due to increased solar activity. These observations help to understand potential seasonal patterns of exospheric hydrogen, which is driven by underlying mechanisms in the lower atmosphere and solar activity, eventually suggesting an impact on water loss in the Martian atmosphere.

Quasi 16-day waves (Q16DWs) are a prominent and recurrent phenomenon in the middle atmosphere, typically observed over winter mid and high latitudes. This study investigates the intense Q16DW event during the 2018–2019 Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, and explores its propagation in the middle atmosphere and its notable influence on the E-region ionosphere. Long-term geopotential height estimates of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) reveal that the wave activity under consideration exhibited the largest amplitudes in the mesosphere for past 16 years. An analysis of wind data obtained from medium frequency (MF) and meteor radars, as well as from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, reveals the presence of a westward-propagating Q16DW with zonal wavenumber 1 exhibiting notable asymmetry about the equator, with the majority of the wave activity being confined to the NH. The prominently large amplitudes and vertical wavelengths of the wave suggest potential for the wave propagation to extend deep into the E-region ionosphere. Swarm satellite observations reveal concurrent ∼16-day oscillations in the eastward component of the geomagnetic field at low latitudes. These oscillations can be attributed to the periodic variations in interhemispheric field-aligned currents (IHFACs). The ∼16-day oscillations in the IHFACs are likely a consequence of asymmetric wind-dynamo action, which is directly or indirectly associated with the Q16DW. These findings suggest that planetary waves originating in the middle atmosphere can cause interhemispheric coupling in the ionosphere.

Interplanetary (IP) shocks are one of the dominant solar wind structures that can significantly impact the Geospace when impinge on the Earth's magnetosphere. IP shocks severely distort the magnetosphere and induce dramatic changes in the magnetospheric currents, often leading to large disturbances in the geomagnetic field. Sudden enhancements in the solar wind dynamic pressure (P Dyn) during IP shocks cause enhanced high-latitude convection electric fields which penetrate promptly to equatorial latitudes. In response, the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) current exhibits sharp changes of magnitudes primarily controlled by the change in P Dyn and the local time. In this paper, we further investigated the influence of shock impact angle on the EEJ response to a large number (306) of IP shocks that occurred during 2001–2021. The results consistently show that the EEJ exhibits a heightened response to the shocks that head-on impact the magnetosphere (frontal shocks) than those with inclined impact (inclined shocks). The greater EEJ response during the frontal shocks could be due to a more intensified high-latitude convection electric field resulting from the symmetric compression of the magnetosphere. Finally, an existing empirical relation involving P Dyn and local time is improved by including the effects of impact angle, which can quantitatively better predict the EEJ response to IP shocks.