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Exploring the radiative effects of precipitation on Arctic amplification and energy budget

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 14:49
One of the key metrics for climate modeling is radiative forcing. Most climate models, including the general circulation models (GCMs), focus on the effects of different atmospheric factors on radiative forcing. However, there are still large uncertainties in satellite observations and multi-model simulations associated with some atmospheric factors.

Remagnetization of Upper Triassic Limestone From the Central Lhasa Terrane (Tibet): Identification, Mechanisms, and Implications for Diagnosing Secondary Remanent Magnetization in Carbonate Rocks

JGR–Solid Earth - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 14:43
Abstract

Carbonate rocks, widely used for quantifying paleolatitude of the Gondwana-derived terranes on the Tibetan Plateau and the geodynamic evolution of the Tethyan Oceans, are prone to remagnetization. However, diagnosing such secondary remanent magnetization is difficult and the mistakes have induced confusion in paleogeographic reconstructions. To evaluate if the Upper Triassic limestones of the Duoburi Formation from the Lhasa terrane carry a primary remanence, we report comprehensive rock magnetic, diffuse reflectance spectroscopic, and petrographic results of these rocks. We discover that magnetic carriers vary systematically from magnetite to magnetite plus minor hematite/goethite to hematite/goethite plus minor magnetite with change of rock color and demagnetization behavior of the specimens. Most magnetite and all hematite/goethite grains have clear authigenic origin and were possibly formed during oxidation of early diagenetic pyrite. Such a process was likely assisted by oxic fluid circulation as shown by omnipresent calcite veins within the rocks. These authigenic iron oxides have widely distributed grain sizes with most of them being superparamagnetic at room temperature. Detrital (titano)magnetite is also recognized in some specimens, but its concentration is much lower than that of the authigenic magnetic grains. Based on these results, we conclude that limestone from the Duoburi Formation was remagnetized due to fluid circulation during late diagenesis. We discuss criteria used for diagnosing remagnetization in carbonate rocks, and suggest that a robust evaluation of the remanence origin should integrate field tests, statistics of the remanence direction, rock magnetic properties, and petrographic observations with the limits of each criterion being carefully considered.

Investigations of the polysomatism of antigorite under pressure

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 13:38
Antigorite is a type of serpentine, which is the most abundant hydrated mineral on the Earth. It is widely believed that this mineral is the main carrier of water deep into the Earth in subducting oceanic plates. It has a wavy structure along the a-axis, and in nature, several polysomes with different m-values (m=13–24) have been identified (polysomatism).

Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 2. Mechanisms and Sources of the Spread

JGR–Atmospheres - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 10:40
Abstract

We analyze the sources for spread in the response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) to global warming in Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) model projections. About half of the intermodel spread in SPV projections by CMIP6 models, but less than a third in CMIP5 models, can be attributed to the intermodel spread in stationary planetary wave driving. In CMIP6, SPV weakening is mostly driven by increased upward wave flux from the troposphere, while SPV strengthening is associated with increased equatorward wave propagation away from the polar stratosphere. We test hypothesized factors contributing to changes in the upward and equatorward planetary wave fluxes and show that an across-model regression using projected global warming rates, strengthening of the subtropical jet and basic state lower stratospheric wind biases as predictors can explain nearly the same fraction in the CMIP6 SPV spread as the planetary wave driving (r = 0.67). The dependence of the SPV spread on the model biases in the basic state winds offers a possible emergent constraint; however, a large uncertainty prevents a substantial reduction of the projected SPV spread. The lack of this dependence in CMIP5 further calls for better understanding of underlying causes. Our results improve understanding of projected SPV uncertainty; however, further narrowing of the uncertainty remains challenging.

How Critical Is the Accuracy of the Atmospheric Transport Modeling to Improve the Urban CO2 Emission in India?—A Lagrangian‐Based Approach

JGR–Atmospheres - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 10:20
Abstract

Anthropogenic CO2 emission reduction strategies depend on how well we track emission enhancements at the urban scale. The estimation system, based on inverse modeling, relies on our knowledge of atmospheric transport and prior flux distributions. Hence, the analysis framework must account for uncertainties associated with each component in order to interpret the variations in observed CO2. Using an ensemble of simulations, we quantify the uncertainties in simulating anthropogenic CO2 mixing ratio enhancements at 15 locations in India. Differences in the representation of transport mechanisms and prior emission in the forward model induce a consistently large model spread of 62.2% and 41.9%, respectively, in the simulated mixing ratio over cities. The analysis reports an average uncertainty of 2.2 ppm with a maximum of 8 ppm for representing diurnally averaged anthropogenic CO2 enhancement. Diurnal variations in emissions and transport induce a rectification effect in those enhancements. The outcome of this study can thus inform future atmospheric CO2 inversion modeling at an urban scale on the expected forward model uncertainties, which are the essential components in the Bayesian inversion framework, typically lacking in the Indian region. The first-order inversion experiments show that the change in the transport model induces significant uncertainty (up to 84.9%) in anthropogenic CO2 flux estimation at the national scale. Hence, the confidence level of inverse-based emission estimation in India depends considerably on the accuracy of atmospheric transport modeling.

Estimation of Downward Heat Flux Into the F‐Region From the Inner‐Magnetosphere During Stable Auroral Red (SAR) Arc Events in the Daytime Obtained Using OI 630.0 nm Red‐Line Emissions

JGR:Space physics - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 07:00
Abstract

Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs are enhanced OI 630.0 nm emissions formed due to an increased electron temperature (Te) near the equatorward wall of mid-latitude trough during geomagnetic disturbances. The Te enhancement associated with SAR arcs is driven by electron heating through heat flux precipitation from near plasmapause region to ionospheric F-region via heat conduction. Although Te enhancements have been reported by radar/satellite measurements along with increased 630.0 nm brightness during SAR arc events, measurements of corresponding heat flux are sparse, and almost none in the daytime. This work presents the results on the estimation of electron heat flux incident during SAR arcs formed during daytime obtained by a comprehensive suite of measurements, and forward modeling. We present observations of several SAR arc events when the ground-based OI 630.0 nm emissions were larger than the model values during disturbed periods and were found to be existing in conjunction with increased Te at the altitude of DMSP (∼840 km). Forward modeling was carried out to determine the values of Te that would cause an enhancement in these emissions during daytime at much lower altitudes (∼400–500 km). These values of Te were used to estimate the required electron heat flux varying in the range of ∼1.0–4.6 × 1010 eV-cm−2-s−1. These results present the first estimates of F-region heat flux enabled using ground-based OI 630.0 nm emissions and open a new approach in the investigations of energy released into the ionosphere through heat conduction for daytime conditions during geomagnetically disturbed periods.

Variability in the Electrodynamics of the Small Scale Auroral Arc

JGR:Space physics - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 07:00
Abstract

A statistical study has been made of dynamic small-scale auroral events in order to understand the drivers of the large variability in the electrodynamics of auroral arcs at fine scales. We used the Auroral Structure and Kinetics (ASK) instrument, located on Svalbard, in order to measure various electrodynamic properties of fine scale auroral arcs. We performed Spearman and Kendall statistical tests and found two significant correlations. The first is between the mean precipitation flux and the variability of flux, which we assume is because of the dynamic and bursty nature of the acceleration mechanism and its dependence on Alfvén waves. The second correlation is between the variability of the precipitating electron flux and the variability of the tangential component of the electric field close to the arc and perpendicular to the magnetic field. We propose that both variabilities occur because of the variability of the upward (field-aligned) current sheet in and around the arc, which is dynamic and non-uniform. The correlation between the two variabilities can therefore be explained by their common source.

Influence of Equatorial Spring Insolation on Abrupt Asian Summer Monsoon Decline at Orbital Scale

JGR–Atmospheres - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 06:26
Abstract

The dominant influence of precession-induced changes in summer insolation on orbital-scale variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during the Holocene has been widely proposed; however, it remains unclear why the decline of the ASM started several thousand years after the peak summer insolation. Through comparisons of climate simulations and proxy records, our study reveals that the abrupt decline in the ASM coincided with an increase in spring insolation at the equator. The reduced spring insolation resulted in a cooler tropical Indian Ocean, which weakened and shifted northward the westerly jet due to decreased meridional thermal gradient. The South Asian high moved northward in conjunction with the westerly jet, causing anomalous upwards over northern South Asia, the Tibetan Plateau, as well as southwestern and northern China. The associated anomalous cyclone over the Tibetan Plateau enhanced the monsoonal moisture transport, subsequently intensifying the ASM circulation and precipitation. The ASM was enhanced by the decrease in spring insolation and was weakened by the opposite. The abrupt decline of the ASM was associated with an increase in spring insolation superimposed on a decrease in summer insolation. Consequently, orbital-scale ASM variability is dominated by the precession not only via insolation changes in summer but also changes in spring.

Field‐Aligned Current Structures During the Terrestrial Magnetosphere's Transformation Into Alfvén Wings and Recovery

GRL - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 05:59
Abstract

On 24 April 2023, a Coronal Mass Ejection event caused the solar wind to become sub-Alfvénic, leading to the development of an Alfvén Wing configuration in the Earth's magnetosphere. Alfvén Wings have previously been observed as cavities of low flow around moons in Jupiter's and Saturn's magnetospheres, but the observing spacecraft did not have the ability to directly measure the Alfvén Wings' current structures. Through in situ measurements made by the Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft, the 24 April event provides us with the first direct measurements of current structures during an Alfvén Wing configuration. These structures are observed to be significantly more anti-field-aligned and electron-driven than the typical diamagnetic magnetopause current, indicating the disruption caused to the magnetosphere current system by the Alfvén Wing formation. The magnetopause current is then observed to recover more of its typical, perpendicular structure during the magnetosphere's recovery from the Alfvén Wing formation.

Co‐Benefits of Mitigating Aerosol Pollution to Future Solar and Wind Energy in China Toward Carbon Neutrality

GRL - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 05:56
Abstract

The climate commitment to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 in China has been announced recently. In the context of pursuing carbon neutrality, sharing similar sources as greenhouse gases, aerosol particle and precursor emissions are projected to substantially decrease in China, which can potentially have a great impact on climate. Here, we investigate the effects of future aerosol reductions, because of achieving carbon neutrality, on solar and wind energy in China by using an earth system model. We show that significant reductions in aerosol emissions, particularly in eastern China, lead to increases in the surface downwelling shortwave radiation, surface air temperature and wind speed, which can further enhance the potential of solar and wind energy production. The findings underline that the pursuit of carbon neutrality can yield co-benefits of not only mitigating climate change and air pollution but also fortifying the stability of renewable energy sources.

Meltwater Orientations Modify Seismic Anisotropy in Temperate Ice

GRL - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 05:50
Abstract

Seismology is increasingly used to infer the magnitude and direction of glacial ice flow. However, the effects of interstitial meltwater on seismic properties remain poorly constrained. Here, we extend previous studies on seismic anisotropy in temperate ices to consider the role of melt preferred orientation (MPO). We used the ELLE numerical toolbox to simulate microstructural shear deformation of temperate ice with variable MPO strength and orientation, and calculated the effective seismic properties of these numerical ice-melt aggregates. Our models demonstrate that even 3.5% melt volume is sufficient to rotate fast directions by up to 90°, to increase Vp anisotropy by up to +110%, and to modify Vs anisotropy by −9 to +36%. These effects are especially prominent at strain rates ≥3.17 × 10−12 s−1. MPO may thus obscure the geophysical signatures of temperate ice flow in regions of rapid ice discharge, and is therefore pivotal for understanding ice mass loss.

Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?

GRL - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 05:45
Abstract

Observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock-in into an extreme EP El Niño-dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock-in into a weak El Niño-dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system.

Meridional Shifts of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies During the Early Cenozoic

GRL - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 05:45
Abstract

Despite the crucial role of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies in modulating modern and past climate evolution, little is known about their behavior and possible forcing mechanisms during the early Cenozoic. We probe changes in the hydroclimate of southwest Australia during 62–51 Ma, based on sedimentary proxy records from the International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1514 in the Mentelle Basin. Our results reveal a transition from a less humid climate to wetter conditions at mid–high latitudes starting from the early Eocene, which suggests poleward migration of the SH westerlies. This long-term trend is punctuated by short-lived events of aridification during the Mid-Paleocene Biotic Event and wetter intervals during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, indicating additional short-term meridional shifting of the westerlies. We propose that the evolution of SH westerlies was driven by the equator-to-pole temperature gradient regulated by global warming and ephemeral growth of the Antarctic ice sheet.

The Role of Continental Alkaline Magmatism in Mantle Carbon Outflux Constrained by a Machine Learning Analysis of Zircon

GRL - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 05:39
Abstract

Continental alkaline magmatism has been suggested to play a significant role in releasing deep mantle carbon into the atmosphere, which can greatly impact the global climate. However, the temporal variations of alkaline magmatism and their potential to modulate climate over geologic time remain poorly constrained. The detrital zircon record is a frequently used proxy for tracking secular variations in particular magmatism. Here, we use a novel machine-learning technique to discriminate zircon from carbonatites, kimberlites, and other alkaline rocks. A global compilation of detrital zircon yields continental alkaline magmatic flare-ups between 1,050−850, 650−500, 250−200, and 50−0 Ma. Our estimates indicate relatively elevated contributions of total magmatic carbon outgassing from alkaline magmatism during the aforementioned magmatic flare-ups. We infer that anomalous alkaline magmatism may influence global warming during specific intervals of geologic time, but when they are not that voluminous or persistent extensive arc magmatism may drive warming conditions.

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss

GRL - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 05:29
Abstract

A novel sub-sampling method has been used to isolate the dynamic effects of the response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Siberian High (SH) from the total response to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2°C global warming above preindustrial levels in very large initial-condition ensemble climate simulations. Thermodynamic effects of Arctic warming are more prominent in Europe while dynamic effects are more prominent in Asia/East Asia. This explains less-severe cold extremes in Europe but more-severe cold extremes in Asia/East Asia. For Northern Eurasia, dynamic effects overwhelm the effect of increased moisture from a warming Arctic, leading to an overall decrease in precipitation. We show that the response scales linearly with the dynamic response. However, caution is needed when interpreting inter-model differences in the response because of internal variability, which can largely explain the inter-model spread in the NAO and SH response in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project.

Climate‐Driven Topographic Asymmetry Enhanced by Glaciers: Implications for Drainage Reorganization in Glacial Landscapes

GRL - Fri, 07/05/2024 - 05:25
Abstract

Climate contrasts across drainage divides, such as orographic precipitation, are ubiquitous in mountain ranges, and as a result, mountain topography is often asymmetric. During glacial periods, these climate gradients can generate asymmetric glaciation, which may modify topographic asymmetry and drive divide migration during glacial-interglacial cycles. Here we quantify topographic asymmetry caused by asymmetric glaciation and its sensitivity to different climate scenarios. Using an analytical model of a steady-state glacial profile, we find that the degree of topographic asymmetry is primarily controlled by differences in the equilibrium line altitude across the divide. Our results show that glacial erosion can respond to the same climate asymmetry differently than fluvial erosion. When there are precipitation differences across the divide, glacial erosion produces greater topographic asymmetry than fluvial erosion, all else equal. These findings suggest that glaciations may promote drainage reorganization and landscape transience in intermittently glaciated mountain ranges.

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