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Algunos árboles tropicales se benefician de los rayos

EOS - Tue, 06/10/2025 - 12:02

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. Esta es una traducción al español autorizada de un artículo de Eos.

De vez en cuando, algunos árboles parecen necesitar una sacudida. Cuando es alcanzado por un rayo, el frondoso Dipteryx oleifera sufre daños mínimos, mientras que los árboles y enredaderas parásitas de las inmediaciones suelen marchitarse o morir por completo. Los investigadores estiman que la eliminación de la vegetación competidora multiplica casi por quince la producción de semillas de D. oleifera a lo largo de su vida.

Un bosque bien equipado

“Este es el único lugar de la Tierra en el que disponemos de datos precisos de seguimiento de rayos para saber si [un rayo ha caído] en una zona del bosque”.

Panamá suele ser conocida por su canal homónimo. Sin embargo, la Isla de Barro Colorado, en el centro de Panamá, también alberga lo que los investigadores que trabajan en el área llaman “una de las zonas de bosque tropical mejor estudiadas de la Tierra”. Esto se debe a que cámaras y aparatos para medir campos eléctricos vigilan constantemente el bosque desde lo alto de una serie de torres de unos 40 metros de altura. Estos instrumentos pueden revelar, entre otros datos, la ubicación exacta de la caída de rayos. “Este es el único lugar de la Tierra en el que disponemos de datos precisos de seguimiento de rayos para saber si [un rayo ha caído] en una zona del bosque”, explica Evan Gora, ecólogo del Instituto Cary de Estudios de Ecosistemas y del Instituto Smithsoniano de Investigaciones Tropicales.

Según Gabriel Arellano, ecólogo forestal de la Universidad de Michigan en Ann Arbor que no participó en la investigación, este tipo de infraestructura es fundamental para localizar los árboles que han sido alcanzados por un rayo. “Es muy difícil hacer un seguimiento de los rayos y encontrar los árboles concretos que se han visto afectados”.

Esto se debe a que el impacto de un rayo en un árbol tropical rara vez provoca un incendio, explica Gora. Lo más habitual es que los árboles tropicales alcanzados por un rayo parezcan prácticamente intactos, pero mueren lentamente a lo largo de varios meses.

Siguiendo los destellos

Para comprender mejor cómo afectan los rayos a los grandes árboles tropicales, Gora y sus colegas examinaron 94 rayos que cayeron sobre 93 árboles únicos en la isla de Barro Colorado entre 2014 y 2019. En 2021, el equipo viajó a la isla para recopilar imágenes terrestres y aéreas de cada árbol impactado directamente y sus alrededores.

Gora y sus colegas registraron seis parámetros sobre el estado de cada árbol afectado directamente y del grupo de enredaderas leñosas parásitas conocidas como lianas: pérdida de la copa, daños en el tronco y porcentaje de la copa infestada de lianas. Las lianas colonizan las copas de muchos árboles tropicales, usándolas para darse estructura y compitiendo con los árboles por la luz. Piensa en alguien que se sienta a su lado y le arranca la mitad de cada bocado de comida que tomas, dice Gora. “Eso es efectivamente lo que hacen estas lianas”.

El equipo también examinó los árboles que rodeaban a cada uno de los que habían sido alcanzados directamente. La corriente eléctrica de un rayo puede viajar por el aire y atravesar también los árboles cercanos, explica Gora. Cuando las ramas de un árbol alcanzado por u nrayo están cerca de las de sus vecinos, “los extremos de sus ramas y las de sus vecinos mueren”, explica Gora. “Verás docenas de esos lugares”.

Creciendo prosperamente después de un rayo

Los investigadores descubrieron que en promedio una cuarta parte de los árboles alcanzados directamente por un rayo morían. Pero cuando el equipo dividió su muestra por especies de árboles, el D. oleifera (más conocido como almendro o haba tonka) destacó por su asombrosa capacidad para sobrevivir a los rayos. Los nueve árboles D. oleifera de la muestra del equipo sobrevivieron sistemáticamente a los rayos, mientras que a sus lianas y vecinos inmediatos no les fue tan bien. “Hubo daños considerables en la zona, pero no en el árbol directamente afectado”, explica Gora. “Éste nunca murió”.

(Otras diez especies del grupo de árboles de los investigadores tampoco mostraron mortalidad tras ser alcanzadas por un rayo, pero todas esas muestras eran demasiado pequeñas, entre uno o dos individuos, para extraer conclusiones sólidas).

Se muestra un árbol de <em>D. oleífera</em> en Panamá justo después de ser alcanzado por un rayo en 2019 (izquierda) y 2 años después (derecha). El árbol sobrevivió al impacto, pero sus enredaderas parásitas y algunos de sus vecinos no. Crédito: Evan Gora

Gora y sus colaboradores calcularon que los grandes árboles de D. oleifera son alcanzados por un rayo un promedio de cinco veces a lo largo de sus aproximadamente 300 años de vida. El equipo infirió que la capacidad de esta especie para sobrevivir a esos eventos, mientras que las lianas y los árboles vecinos a menudo morían, debería traducirse en una reducción general de la competencia por los nutrientes y la luz solar. Al usar modelos de crecimiento y capacidad reproductiva de los árboles, los investigadores calcularon que D. oleifera obtenía beneficios sustanciales de ser alcanzada por un rayo, sobre todo en lo que respecta a la fecundidad, es decir, el número de semillas producidas a lo largo de la vida de un árbol. “La capacidad de sobrevivir a los rayos multiplica por catorce su fecundidad», afirma Gora.

D. oleifera esté evolucionando para convertirse en un mejor pararrayos.

Los investigadores demostraron además que D. oleifera tendía a ser más alto y ancho en su copa que muchas otras especies de árboles tropicales de la Isla de Barro Colorado. Trabajos anteriores de Gora y sus colegas han demostrado que los árboles más altos corren especial riesgo de ser alcanzados por un rayo. Por tanto, es posible pensar que D. oleifera esté evolucionando para convertirse en un mejor pararrayos, afirma Gora. “Quizá los rayos estén moldeando no sólo la dinámica de nuestros bosques, sino también su evolución”.

Estos resultados fueron publicados en New Phytologist.

Gora y sus colaboradores partieron de la hipótesis de que la fisiología de D. oleifera debe de otorgar cierta protección contra la enorme cantidad de corriente impartida por un rayo. Trabajos anteriores de Gora y otros investigadores han sugerido que el D. oleifera es más conductor que el promedio; niveles más altos de conductividad significan menos resistencia y, por tanto, menos calentamiento interno. “Creemos que el grado de conductividad de un árbol influye mucho en si muere o no”, afirma Gora.

Seguir descubriendo otras especies de árboles resistentes a los rayos será importante para comprender cómo evolucionan los bosques a lo largo del tiempo. Es ahí donde más datos serán útiles, dijo Arellano. “No me sorprendería que encontráramos muchas otras especies”.

—Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), Escritora de ciencia

This translation by Mónica Alejandra Gómez Correa was made possible by a partnership with Planeteando y GeoLatinas. Esta traducción fue posible gracias a una asociación con Planeteando and GeoLatinas.

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Tracking the Sediment Carried by the Muddy Mississippi

EOS - Tue, 06/10/2025 - 12:00

Mississippi River ships and barges carry over 500 million tons of cargo through the Southwest Pass shipping channel at the river’s end to reach major ports that handle 18% of U.S. waterborne commerce. For almost 100 years, levees and other human-made flood control structures have lined the banks of the river, obstructing its land-building silt, sand and clay from naturally rebuilding land along coastal Louisiana.

That sediment is essential to rebuilding—or at this point, maintaining—the fragile coastline that has been receding for decades. Without it, the small towns that dot the lower part of the Louisiana Gulf Coast are left exposed, with no protection against storm surges and hurricane-strength winds. But to reverse coastal erosion, scientists found that they first had to understand where sediment that could be used to rebuild settles instead.

Most of the year, less than 10% of the river’s sediment reaches the critical Bird’s Foot Delta, according to scientists from the Mississippi River Delta Transition Initiative, known as MissDelta. The bird’s foot—at the southernmost reach of the river system that juts into the Gulf of Mexico—plays a vital role in coastal protection, navigation, fisheries and energy infrastructure.

In 2023, MissDelta launched a $22 million, five-year research project spearheaded by Tulane University and Louisiana State University, and funded by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. The study aims to evaluate the Delta and Southwest Pass, the critical navigation channel, with hopes of finding management approaches that will benefit both the delicate ecosystem and the people who live and work in the delta region, including fisherpeople, charter-boat operators, offshore workers, shipyard builders, mechanics and petrochemical-facility operators.

A team of researchers from Tulane University and the University of Louisiana at Lafayette pose for a portrait on a dock in Venice, La., with the PS-200 isokinetic sediment sampler used to collect water samples from the Mississippi River on 23 April 2025. Credit: Stacey Plaisance, Tulane University

During the first year-and-a-half of the study, researchers measured discharge by plunging a 200-pound sampler into the river at various depths. By tracking sediment from the sampler, the team can measure how much settles in the wetlands upriver versus how much exits into the deepwater Gulf, said Claire Kemick, a Tulane graduate student working to collect the samples.

The study’s early findings, announced at Louisiana’s State of the Coast conference, show that the Mississippi River loses substantial amounts of water and sediment above what’s called the Head of Passes, at the mouth of the river, where the Mississippi forms its distinct bird’s foot by branching into three directions: the Southwest Pass shipping channel (west), Pass A Loutre (east) and South Pass (center).

Bird’s Foot Delta is headed toward further degradation, after losing ground for decades.

That means the Bird’s Foot Delta is headed toward further degradation, after losing ground for decades, said Mead Allison, co-lead of MissDelta and a professor in Tulane’s Department of River-Coastal Science and Engineering.

Above the Head of Passes, substantial amounts of sediment carried by the Mississippi River are lost through both natural and man-made channels, such as the rapidly expanding Neptune Pass near Buras, Louisiana, in lower Plaquemines Parish. But most is lost well before then.

Using data on sediment movement, the team can calibrate models to predict what will happen to the delta by 2100 under different scenarios, with varied sea-level rise, storm frequency and river-flow fluctuations. Once the researchers develop the models, they will use them to test various interventions that could save the delta, such as closing river exits and changing water-flow patterns.

In the fall, the MissDelta team will return to lower Plaquemines Parish to study the saltwater wedge that creeps up the river during low flow periods. For three years in a row, the wedge of heavy salt water has crept up the river underneath the fresh water, imperiling drinking water in the greater New Orleans area.

The goal is to find management approaches that can help build up this region, which Allison has called one of the most threatened places in the nation, if not on Earth.

But they cannot forge management solutions without an understanding of how the muddy Mississippi carries its load of sandy sediment in the lower delta. “Right now, we don’t know very much about where the sediment is in the Lower Mississippi River,” Kemick said. Further research will help determine where the coarse sand is settling in the riverbed.

“Sand is white gold for Louisiana. We need to keep it.”

Sediment loss is especially high during low or average river flow, when the water is traveling slowly enough to allow the heavy sand particles to sink to the bottom. When the river floods, the faster-moving river brings sand from throughout the drainage basin to Louisiana. But it doesn’t necessarily help to build up the Bird’s Foot area. Instead, it falls out in the channel, creating a need for more dredging to maintain the ship route.

The Mississippi River’s sediment is an important resource for coastal restoration, Allison said. “Sand is white gold for Louisiana. We need to keep it.”

The Louisiana Coastal Master Plan was built upon this principle, with an ambitious plan for a sediment diversion, the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion, that would be one of the largest environmental infrastructure projects in the history of the U.S.

But the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has suspended the permit to build the keystone project.

On Wednesday, more than 50 Louisiana business and civic leaders sent a letter to Gov. Jeff Landry urging him to resume construction of the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion at the size and scale that it was designed and permitted for.

“Delaying or downsizing the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion threatens not just our coast, but our economy, our safety and our credibility as a state.”

“These business and civic leaders are part of the backbone of Louisiana—people who live, work, and invest in this region every day,” said Simone Maloz, campaign director for Restore the Mississippi River Delta. “Delaying or downsizing the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion threatens not just our coast, but our economy, our safety and our credibility as a state.”

Conversations about the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion were absent from this year’s State of the Coast conference, an interdisciplinary forum hosted by the Coalition to Restore Coastal Louisiana.

“In some ways, I feel like Mid-Barataria is kind of haunting this conference,” said Alisha Renfro, a coastal scientist with the National Wildlife Federation. She is hopeful that Louisiana can find a pathway to resume the project, after investing $500 million into planning.

The state is also in danger of losing billions in federal funding if its leaders don’t commit to finishing the construction.

It may be time to look for alternative coastal restoration projects, some scientists say. For Allison, that means not only determining how the Mississippi River sediment moves now but also where dredged sand could best restore coastal wetlands like the Barataria Basin.

Currently, dredge spoil used for coastal restoration remains relatively close to where it came from in the river. In the Barataria Basin, one project to restore approximately 302 acres of brackish marsh known as Bayou Grande Cheniere required nearly eight miles of pipes to move the sediment.

A map of the Bird’s Foot Delta showing underwater depth based on the three distributaries. Credit: USGS

Other solutions might involve closing gaps where sediment leaks out before reaching the Bird’s Foot Delta. The Army Corps is essentially testing this theory now, Allison said, with its plan to reduce the flow at Neptune Pass, a nearby branch in the river that is creating new land in Quarantine Bay.

The plan could boost land-building in the Barataria Basin, Allison said. While the Army Corps proposes using rocks to limit the size of the channel’s entrance and minimize the risk of navigational hazards, the construction at the outflow could reinforce the crevasse’s land-building power, he said.

In addition to building sediment retention structures, the Army Corps could pump sand out of the river and place it directly at the outflow of the channel, allowing the water to redistribute it into a more natural wetland building pattern.

“It’s really encouraging that the Corps is thinking about these forward-looking strategies to better use dredged material,” Allison said.

This story is a product of the Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk, an independent reporting network based at the University of Missouri in partnership with Report for America, with major funding from the Walton Family Foundation.

—Delaney Dryfoos (@delaneydryfoos.bsky.social), The Lens

Another landslide crisis in Switzerland – debris flows in the Val de Bagnes

EOS - Tue, 06/10/2025 - 06:01

30 people have been evacuated in Les Epenays and Fregnoley in the Val de Bagnes in Valais due to the threat of debris flows .

As the dust settles on the landslide crisis at Blatten, Swissinfo has published a very nice article highlighting the growing landslide risk in Switzerland. For example, in the canton of Graubünden (which is the focus of the article) alone, 17,000 buildings are located in high natural hazard areas. Over 5,000 of these are residential properties.

Right on cue, another significant landslide crisis has developed in Switzerland, this time in in the upper Val de Bagnes in Valais. Here, an ongoing slope collapse is generating debris flows that are affecting the village of Les Epenays. Thirty people have been evacuated. Blue News has published a nice article that summarises the threat. Parts of another hamlet, Fregnoley, are also at some risk, and two farms have been evacuated there as well.

The evolution of this crisis is best told with a series of Planet Labs satellite images. So, to start, this is the site on 28 June 2024. The marker, which is located at [46.06612, 7.26522], is in the upper part of the catchment that is causing the problems.

Satellite image of site of the debris flows at Val de Bagnes in Switzerland in late June 2024. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission. Image dated 28 June 2024.

This is a typical alpine subcatchment, with steep upper slopes and some incision. How let’s jump forward a week to 5 July 2024:-

Satellite image of the debris flows at Val de Bagnes in Switzerland in July 2024. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission. Image dated 5 July 2024.

The site had dramatically changed, the result of intense rainfall. In the upper part of this subcatchment, slope failure had occurred. Lower down the slope a large alluvial fan has developed, and the image shows that the road has been inundated. Further debris flows occurred through summer 2024.

In the last week, storms have further exacerbated the issues. This is an image collected on 8 June 2025:-

Satellite image of the debris flows at Val de Bagnes in Switzerland in June 2025. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission. Image dated 8 June 20245

Note the dramatic increase in instability in the upper portions of the catchment (especially in the area of the marker) and the huge area inundated by the debris flows downstream. This acceleration in activity was driven by a storm on 1 June 2025.

It is interesting to compare the June 2024 and June 2025 images:-

What a difference a year makes!

The Commune of Val de Bagnes has also released this image of the impact of the debris flows on the road:-

The impact of the debris flows on the road at Val de Bagnes in Switzerland. Image released by the Commune de Val de Bagnes.

The Commune of Val de Bagnes is publishing daily updates. The bulletin published yesterday highlighted that the slopes in the upper catchment that are generating these debris flows are currently moving at up to 2 metres per day.

Clearly, this issue is less acute than the one at Blatten, but it is serious headache nonetheless. The Alps are prone to thunderstorms with intense rainfall in the summer months, so this could be a trying period for the local community and for the authorities in Vallais.

Acknowledgement and reference

Thanks to loyal reader Alasdair MacKenzie for highlighting the article on landslide risk in Graubünden. And thanks also to Planet Labs for their wonderful imagery, again.

Planet Team 2025. Planet Application Program Interface: In Space for Life on Earth. San Francisco, CA. https://www.planet.com/

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

An Alaskan volcano could help scientists understand why 'stealthy' volcanoes erupt without warning

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 06/10/2025 - 04:00
When volcanoes are preparing to erupt, scientists rely on typical signs to warn people living nearby: deformation of the ground and earthquakes, caused by underground chambers filling up with magma and volcanic gas. But some volcanoes, called "stealthy" volcanoes, don't give obvious warning signs. Now scientists studying Veniaminof, Alaska, have developed a model which could explain and predict stealthy eruptions.

Hybrid Bayesian Inversion Applied to Hydrogeophysical Interpretation of Single-Time 2D ERT Data

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 06/10/2025 - 00:00
SummaryEstimating quantitative hydrogeological information from geophysical datasets remains a key challenge in hydrogeophysics, driving the development of innovative inversion methodologies. Among these, coupled hydrogeophysical inversion (CHI) is a promising approach that integrates hydrological and geophysical modeling to improve hydrological property estimations from geophysical observations. However, most CHI applications focus on time-lapse geophysical datasets, while applications using single-time geophysical datasets “historically far more common in hydrological studies” remain scarce. Moreover, CHI also depends on petrophysical relationships, whose accurate calibration is challenging, leading to uncertainties that significantly affect CHI results and must be accounted for. This work proposes Hybrid Bayesian Inversion (HBI) to implement CHI using single time geophysical dataset, which considers coupled hydrological-geophysical modelling constraints and petrophysical relationships, including several calibration uncertainties. HBI is based on solving the hybrid decomposition of subsurface geophysical properties. This decomposition is derived as the sum of the groundwater model, directly predicted by coupled geophysical-hydrological modeling, and the background model, which accounts for the residual geophysical properties not predicted by coupled modeling. The groundwater model is formulated as a stochastic model characterized by probability density functions (PDFs), which enable the derivation of estimations for posterior conditional PDFs of hydrological and geophysical properties. In contrast, the background model is characterized only by estimating its values (e.g. using maximum likelihood estimators) and its PDFs are not determined. The hybrid decomposition in HBI is solved using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. This approach divides the iterative solution into sequential steps of Bayesian inversion (E-step) and classic least-squares geophysical inversion (M-step). This formulation allows Bayesian inversion, which is computationally intensive, to focus only on relevant variables linked to hydrological conceptualization (Groundwater model), while classic least-squares geophysical inversion is used to solve the remaining variables (Background model). The HBI methodology was tested using 2D ERT synthetic and experimental data from an unconfined aquifer. In these examples, ERT modelling is integrated with saturated groundwater flow modeling through uncalibrated Archie and CK (electrical conductivity to hydraulic conductivity) petrophysical relationships. Results indicate that even with significant calibration uncertainties in petrophysical relationships, HBI can recover valuable information regarding water table and water conductivity what is not directly derivable from classic least-squares inversion results. Additionally, results derived from experimental data show that HBI can be an effective method to discriminate between low resistivity caused by fine-grain content and the water-saturated zones.

Denoising Daily Displacement GNSS Time series using Deep Neural Networks In a Near Real-Time Framing: a Sin- gle-Station Method

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 06/10/2025 - 00:00
SummaryRecent ground observations from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) displacement time series have provided compelling evidence that the tectonic motion in many settings is ubiquitously non-steady-state. In some cases, these anomalous transient motions have been identified as potential precursors occurring months, days, or hours before large-magnitude earthquakes. However, effectively detecting these signals in daily geodetic time series at the earliest opportunity remains challenging due to the levels of high-frequency noise. Currently, there is a lack of established methodologies to reduce this noise in near-real-time thereby hindering our ability to promptly monitor tectonic transient motions. Precursors are typically modeled retrospectively, and the use of geodetic data for seismic hazard surveillance remains limited. To address this limitation, this study demonstrates an approach to model high-frequency noise in daily GNSS displacement time series, with the removal of this modeled noise allowing for tectonic transients to be potentially more clearly identified. Using Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), we develop a denoising approach that removes noise from GNSS displacement time series on a station-by-station basis. To more effectively train our DNN models, we generate a comprehensive and diverse dataset by combining synthetic trajectories with synthetic noise time series created using Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN). To train the GAN, we use noise time series extracted from ∼5000 GNSS displacement time series distributed globally. Validating our approach with real data confirms its capability to significantly reduce the high-frequency noise that characterizes GNSS time series. The flexibility of the method allows for near-real-time noise removal (with a latency of a few days), opening up the possibility of detecting and modeling small tectonic transients in a timely fashion. By introducing this novel approach, we present exciting opportunities to advance the geodetic surveillance of tectonic motions and usher in a new era of improved monitoring of seismic activity.

Goldilocks conditions for wildfires: Twenty years of data show which areas are most at risk

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 16:34
As the global climate continues to warm, fire seasons have intensified, and large-scale wildfires have become more frequent in many parts of the world. Factors such as vegetation type, land use patterns, and human activity all affect the likelihood of ignition, but wildfire proliferation ultimately depends on two factors: climate and fuel availability.

New machine learning model improves early tsunami warnings

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 15:44
History has a way of repeating itself. But unlike science, built on general principles and testable theories about the natural world, history examines past events and human actions using evidence and interpretation. This delineation is critical when predicting earthquakes and tsunami waves for Canada's west coast, as researchers just don't have the scientific data required to make communities safe—at least not yet—so current calculations are informed by historic natural disasters in faraway places like Japan and Indonesia.

Ocean mud locks up much of the planet's carbon—we're digging deep to map these ancient stores

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 13:40
Mud is messy. For some, it's a plaything. To many, it can mean real hardship. Mud, though, is often overlooked, particularly when it lies out of sight. Deep down at the bottom of the sea, it is one of the most important natural archives of Earth's past—holding clues of shifting climates, coastlines, ocean conditions and carbon storage.

AMOC decline linked to increased dry season rainfall in parts of the Amazon rainforest

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 13:29
New research led by IIASA reveals a surprising link between two major climate-tipping elements: the Southern Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While the study finds that a weakening AMOC may buffer dry season rainfall loss in the Amazon, it also highlights the urgent need to reduce emissions as broader climate risks continue to escalate.

Lawn story: Turfgrass data may improve urban greenhouse gas emission estimates

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 13:20
Data that has been lost in the weeds—or more accurately the turfgrass—could help improve estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from urban areas, according to a team led by scientists at Penn State.

The Goldilocks Conditions for Wildfires

EOS - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 13:12
Source: AGU Advances

As the global climate continues to warm, fire seasons have intensified, and large-scale wildfires have become more frequent in many parts of the world. Factors such as vegetation type, land use patterns, and human activity all affect the likelihood of ignition, but wildfire proliferation ultimately depends on two factors: climate and fuel availability.

Kampf et al. studied relationships between fire, fuel, and climate in temperate regions around the world, focusing specifically on western North America, western and central Europe, and southwestern South America. Each of the three regions includes desert, shrub, and forest areas, as well as local climates ranging from arid to humid.

The researchers pulled information on total burned area and wildfire frequency in these regions between 2002 and 2021 from the GlobFire database, and they sourced data on land cover and biomass during the same period from NASA’s Global Land Cover Mapping and Estimation (GLanCE). They also used precipitation and evapotranspiration data from TerraClimate to calculate the mean annual aridity index (mean annual precipitation divided by mean annual evapotranspiration) for each region.

The researchers found that over the 20-year study period and across all three regions, fires burned smaller areas of land in zones with either very dry climates or very wet climates compared with zones of intermediate aridity. They suggest that this trend is explained by the lack of vegetation sufficient to fuel widespread fires in dry zones and, in wet zones, by weather conditions that dampen the likelihood of fires. In contrast, burned areas were larger in the intermediate zones where biomass abundance and weather conditions are more conducive to fueling fires.

Of the three regions studied, North America had the largest total burned area, fraction of area burned, and fire sizes. The researchers note that the fragmentation of vegetated areas in South America (by the Andes Mountains) and in Europe (because of extensive land use) has likely limited the sizes of fires and burned areas in those regions. They also point out that rising temperatures and aridity are increasing the risk of large wildfires in all three regions, suggesting that fire managers need to be flexible and responsive to local changes. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001628, 2025)

—Sarah Derouin (@sarahderouin.com), Science Writer

Citation: Derouin, S. (2025), The Goldilocks conditions for wildfires, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250215. Published on 9 June 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Rising Concerns of Climate Extremes and Land Subsidence Impacts

EOS - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Vox is a blog from AGU’s Publications Department.

A recent article in Reviews of Geophysics explores land subsidence drivers, rates, and impacts across the globe. It also discusses the need for improved process representations and the inclusion of the interplay among land subsidence and climatic extremes, including their effects in models and risk assessments. Here, we asked the lead author to explain the concept of land subsidence, its impacts, and future directions needed for improved mitigation.

What is land subsidence? 

Land subsidence (LS) refers to the relative sinking or lowering of the Earth’s land surface. LS is a pressing global issue that warrants action since subsidence can adversely impact infrastructure, humans, and the environment across various landscapes and climates (Figure 1). It may be driven by one or more natural processes and/or human activities that compound to cause localized or expansive ground deformation. Differential LS causes structures and roadways to crack and buckle. LS can also reduce the water storage capacity of aquifers. Notably, LS can be recoverable (e.g., natural variations in groundwater levels) or permanent (e.g., overdraft causing irreversible compaction).  

Figure 1. Reported LS rates and drivers around the world based on literature. (a) Map of primary LS drivers (colors) indicating mean (circles) and maximum (triangles) rates (shape sizes). A shared color scheme (shown in (b)) demarcates the main causes of LS in (a) and (b). (b) 50 largest mean LS rates for global locations (numbered along x-axis and listed above). LS rates are often nonlinear, temporally dependent, and occur at various time scales. Rates shown were not all observed or estimated over the same time period. Credit: Huning et al. [2024], Figure 1.

Why is it important to understand and monitor land subsidence? 

Various LS drivers and physical processes exist and interact with one another (Figure 1). LS is often closely related to natural resources demand, which increases with growing urbanization and megacities. The proximity of LS to critical infrastructure like water conveyance, transportation, and utility systems is a significant concern since LS could cause catastrophic lifeline failures, outages, and/or loss of life. Also, feedbacks between climatic extremes (e.g., droughts, floods, wildfires, heatwaves) and LS impacts exist, but are not fully understood.

Although a chronic hazard, LS may initially go unnoticed as sinking typically occurs slowly. This influences perceived risk and contributes to reactive policies, regulations, and mitigation steps targeting LS and its implications rather than proactive measures. Furthermore, the compounding effects of extreme events and their impacts can exacerbate LS. More pronounced interactions are likely with projected rises in climate extremes.

How do scientists monitor and measure land subsidence across the globe? 

Scientists use various techniques and technologies to measure LS, including ground-based surveys, subsurface instrumentation, and satellite-based observations. Satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has revolutionized LS monitoring and mapping. It is an active remote sensing system that emits microwave pulses and receives echoes. Such systems can operate under various conditions (e.g., day and night, in cloudy skies) and produce high-resolution imagery. With SAR-based information, scientists can infer surface deformation by computing phase differences between SAR snapshots over a region using techniques like interferometric SAR (InSAR). SAR-based observations commonly inform impact assessments for agriculture, structural health, and resource management.

What are the major natural and anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence? 

Naturally-occurring processes and human activities can independently drive LS or enhance existing LS rates (Figure 2). Some examples of natural drivers of LS include: natural consolidation, volcanic or tectonic activity, seasonal groundwater level variations, and soil organic material decomposition. Extraction of natural resources (e.g., fossil fuels, groundwater), removal of wetlands and peatlands, and loading from rapid urbanization serve as examples of human-related activities contributing to LS. Natural resource extraction is a leading anthropogenic driver of LS (Figure 1), which often rises with increasing population. Also, extreme events such as wildfires or heatwaves can trigger LS in permafrost areas by thawing the permafrost layer, altering the soil structure, and releasing greenhouse gases that accelerate warming.

Figure 2. Schematic illustrating feedbacks and effects of land subsidence, extreme events, and human activities. Credit: Huning et al. [2024], Figure 3.

How is land subsidence projected to change in the future? 

Estimating future LS rates is challenging. Projecting human activities driving LS and the effectiveness of restoration and mitigation efforts is complicated, uncertain, and variable. LS projections also depend on other factors (e.g., infrastructure investments, land use-land cover changes). They are further complicated by uncertain projected hydrologic variables like precipitation. Yet, more people are expected to be exposed to LS with greater economic losses anticipated in the future.

Sea level rise (SLR), rising temperatures, and extreme events often compound LS. Subsiding coastal areas and deltas face higher inundation risk from the compounding effect of SLR. Extreme events and LS impacts are expected to increasingly affect one another (Figures 2-3) as extremes (e.g., drought) intensify with warming. Amidst drought, groundwater levels drop through decreased recharge and increased pumping, often leading to soil compaction and LS. As soils dry and crack, heightened microbial processes decompose soil organic matter and release carbon. Such processes can enhance warming while triggering LS and feedbacks. As temperatures rise, permafrost thaw-driven LS is also expected to expand, increasing the infrastructure at risk for damage and failure.

Figure 3. Example feedback loops involving land subsidence, climatic trends, extreme events, infrastructure, and cascading hazards. (a) Peatland‐carbon, (b) permafrost‐carbon, and (c) salinization‐subsidence feedbacks and (d) infrastructure‐subsidence, (e) flood‐subsidence, and (f) drought‐subsidence cascading hazards. Black (orange) arrows denote a positive feedback (strengthening of impacts). Credit: Huning et al. [2024], Figure 4.

What additional research, data, or modeling is needed to help track and mitigate land subsidence and its impacts? 

Integrated models incorporating multiple LS drivers and processes are necessary for better estimating LS rates, extent, and ramifications at the spatiotemporal resolutions essential for mitigation, adaptation, and policy. Additional data and research are needed to understand the interplay of extreme events, infrastructure, climatic trends, and human activities with LS dynamics and effects (Figure 3), and inform LS mitigation efforts.

Improved climate modeling, management practices, and risk assessments require better representations of LS feedbacks, carbon emissions, and LS processes. Such advancements necessitate accurate, longer, and spatial observations and analyses with improved process understandings. Global adoption of consistent monitoring and reporting frameworks will also support such efforts by leading to new insight into LS observations and regions at-risk for LS, LS-enhanced flooding, etc. Interdisciplinary efforts will help transform science into action focused on LS hazard and risk mitigation.

—Laurie S. Huning (laurie.huning@csulb.edu, 0000-0002-0296-4255), California State University, Long Beach, United States

Editor’s Note: It is the policy of AGU Publications to invite the authors of articles published in Reviews of Geophysics to write a summary for Eos Editors’ Vox.

Citation: Huning, L. S. (2025), Rising concerns of climate extremes and land subsidence impacts, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO255019. Published on 9 June 2025. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

California tsunami: Here's where damage and casualties could be the worst

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 10:51
Tsunamis pose a risk to the entire California coast. But should a major one strike, how bad could it be?

Influence of plasma screening on high-density inverse bremsstrahlung absorption

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 10:00

Author(s): D. Turnbull, R. K. Follett, M. Sherlock, D. J. Strozzi, J. Katz, D. Cao, N. R. Shaffer, K. Aytekin, D. H. Edgell, L. Stanton, and D. H. Froula

A spherical-implosion platform diagnosed with the “beamlets” scattered-light detector provides high sensitivity to the impact of plasma screening on inverse bremsstrahlung absorption. Contrary to the more restrictive screening length suggested previously [D. Turnbull et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 14…


[Phys. Rev. E 111, 065206] Published Mon Jun 09, 2025

An initial analysis of the 8 February 2025 Junlian rock avalanche, China

EOS - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 07:49

A new paper in the journal Landslides has presented a review of a large landslide that killed 29 people in Sichuan Province.

On 8 February 2025, a large rock avalanche occurred in Junlian County in Sichuan Province, China. I wrote about this event, now known as the Junlian rock avalanche, at the time. With remarkable and commendable pace, Bo Zhao and colleagues have published an initial review of the event (Zhao et al. 2025) in the journal Landslides. Whilst the paper is behind a paywall, this link should allow readers to access the full text.

The landslide is located at [27.99885, 104.60801]. The Google Earth image below shows the site in 2020 – the marker is on the source area of the Junlian rock avalanche:-

Google Earth image of the site of the 8 February 2025 Junlian rock avalanche, China.

The image below, published by Xinhua, shows the aftermath of the landslide:-

The aftermath of the 8 February 2025 Junlian rock avalanche in Sichuan, China. Image by Xinhua.

Zhao et al. (2025) have determined the key statistics for this landslide. The initial failure was 370,000 m3, increasing to 600,000 m3 through entrainment. The landslide had a runout distance of 1,180 metres and a vertical elevation change of 440 m, giving a landslide mobility index of 0.37. This is a typical value for a rock avalanche of this volume.

Zhao et al. (2025) show that the initial failure was structurally controlled, which is no surprise. It occurred in a Triassic interbedded sandstone and mudstone formation. They estimate that the average velocity was 19.3 m/second.

The authors consider in some detail the triggering event. The site experienced 10 days of low intensity rainfall prior to the failure. Zhao et al. (2025) suggest that this led to the build up of pore water pressure, initiating the failure. Total rainfall in the month proceeding the collapse was in the order of 85 mm. This rainfall seems somewhat unexceptional, suggesting to me that a progressive failure mechanism was in play.

The Junlian rock avalanche killed 29 people and left two people injured. It is a fascinating example of a major failure with high consequences in a remote mountainous area. Anticipating such events remains a major challenge in landsldie research. Many thanks to the authors for providing such a rapid description of this event.

Reference

Zhao, B., Zhang, Q., Wang, L. et al. 2025. Preliminary analysis of failure characteristics of the 2025 Junlian rock avalanche, ChinaLandslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-025-02556-1.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Ensemble Kalman inversion for spatially varying rheological parameters in a stress-driven model of postseismic deformation

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 00:00
AbstractGeodetic observations of postseismic deformation due to afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation can be used to infer fault and lithosphere rheologies by combining the observations with mechanical models of postseismic processes. However, estimating the spatial distributions of rheological parameters remains challenging because it requires solving a nonlinear inverse problem with a high-dimensional parameter space and potentially computationally expensive forward model. Here we introduce an inversion method to estimate spatially varying fault and lithospheric rheological parameters in a mechanical model of postseismic deformation using geodetic time series. The forward model combines afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation governed by a velocity-strengthening frictional rheology and a power-law Burgers rheology, respectively, and incorporates the mechanical coupling between coseismic slip, afterslip, and viscoelastic relaxation. The inversion method estimates spatially varying fault frictional parameters, viscoelastic constitutive parameters, and coseismic stress change. We formulate the inverse problem in a Bayesian framework to quantify the uncertainties of the estimated parameters. To solve this problem with reasonable computational costs, we develop an algorithm to estimate the mean and covariance matrix of the posterior probability distribution based on an ensemble Kalman filter. We validate our method through numerical tests using a two-dimensional forward model and synthetic postseismic GNSS time series. The test results suggest that our method can estimate the spatially varying rheological parameters and their uncertainties reasonably well with tolerable computational costs. Our method can also recover spatially and temporally varying afterslip, viscous strain, and effective viscosities and can distinguish the contributions of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation to observed postseismic deformation.

A full-envelope based approach to estimate absorption and scattering attenuation from seismic ambient noise

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 00:00
AbstractWe present a novel technique for the characterization of small-scale absorption and scattering properties from cross-correlation functions (CCFs) of seismic ambient noise. We use a continuous data set recorded over four years at the Piton de la Fournaise volcano. Attenuation properties are estimated in the frequency range from 0.5 to 4 Hz, by comparing energy envelopes from CCFs with those from the radiative transfer theory (RTT) and the diffusion approximation. Our technique exploits the different propagation regimes observed at long and short propagation distances, which allows us to quantify attenuation properties in two stages: firstly, we measure absorption from short propagation distances including auto-correlation functions (source-receiver collocated case) to profit from the long coda durations. This set of estimates also allows to observe spatial variation of absorption either from RTT or the diffusion approximation. Once absorption is estimated, we proceed to characterize scattering from long propagation distances where scattering effects dominate absorption. Our inversion strategy to characterize scattering is called the ’ball-diff’ ratio because we propose to use the ratio of the integrated energies contained in the ballistic and early diffuse regimes. This technique can considerably reduce the effect of the uneven distribution of noise sources. Finally, in order to validate our method, the scattering and absorption properties estimated from CCFs of seismic noise are compared with those from earthquake data, for which we used magnitudes between 1.5 and 2.5. Good agreement was found between the estimates of these two approaches.

The Influence of Stress Release on the Spatial and Magnitude Distribution of Subsequent Earthquakes

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 00:00
AbstractDetermining when and where the next big earthquake will occur is a fundamental challenge in earthquake forecasting. Although it is reasonable to assume that the next major earthquake will occur in regions where stress has been increased by previous events, the most common and reliable earthquake forecasting models assume that the magnitude of next earthquakes is independent from what happen before and, implicitly, from the stress state. In this study, we investigate the correlation between stress distribution and the occurrence of large earthquakes using a realistic physical model. Our findings reveal that the next big earthquake is more likely to occur on the periphery of previous large earthquakes, where stress has accumulated but not yet been relaxed. Additionally, we explore how stress redistribution influences the magnitude distribution of aftershocks. These results can inform the introduction of correlations between large earthquakes in existing seismic forecasting models, potentially enhancing their accuracy and reliability.

Comment on “The SPOCK equation of state for condensed phases under arbitrary compression” by R. Myhill

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 06/09/2025 - 00:00
AbstractIt is shown that the SPOCK equation of state is equivalent to the Variable Polytrope Index equation of state.

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