Geophysical Journal International

SummaryWe present a full-wave inversion algorithm (FWI) to accurately delineate the subsalt body using seismic borehole data. This ill-posed inverse problem is constrained by introducing geological a priori information through the parameterization of the salt boundary using a level set function. The implicit level set function is spanned by a set of B-spline basis functions for their ability to represent a wide range of shapes. Furthermore, the proposed FWI algorithm combines a meshed discretization with the implicit representation of shapes throughout the inversion process. A weak deformation of the mesh is applied at each iteration of the inversion to maintain the explicit discretization of the shapes when the level set boundary is updated. This method is very accurate when it comes to modelling the scattered wavefields and computing the Fréchet derivatives at interfaces. Three numerical examples using synthetic borehole seismic data illustrate the ability of the method to accurately retrieve the size, location and shape of the salt body when the density and seismic velocities are known.

SummaryFractures in reservoirs are potential conduits for fluid flow. Therefore, it is crucial to know to what extent fluid flowing through a fracture could be lost by seepage to its porous background. For this reason, the hydraulic contact between the porous background and the fracture should be characterized, ideally based on seismic reflections. The representation of a fracture as a thin porous layer can provide insight into this seepage from a dynamic poroelasticity perspective. This is possible because the seismic waves reflected from a fracture are partially converted into the slow P-wave, which is the fluid motion relative to the solid-frame, and are sensitive to hydraulic contact being sealed or leak. It is well known that the P-wave reflectivity of fractures exhibits a marked difference between sealed and leaky cases for small angles of incidence (below twenty degrees) because of the variation in conversion scattering to slow P-wave. Drawing from a recent finding that a vertically polarized shear wave (SV-wave) can also generate a robust slow P-wave, we analyze the SV-wave reflectivity at fractures that can be hydraulically connected or disconnected from the surrounding porous medium, with the aim of advancing fracture characterization. We find that the reflectivity of the SV-wave is sensitive to fluid seepage, particularly at larger incident angles (above thirty degrees) where the amplitude is diminished substantially. Therefore, SV-wave reflectivity can also be used to identify leaky fractures, complementing the information provided by P-wave reflectivity.

SummaryEarthquake early warning systems are designed to provide critical seconds of warning before strong ground shaking, facilitating emergency mitigation efforts. Existing methods, such as neural networks and ground motion prediction equation-based approaches, rely on manually defined parameters and physics-based computations, which introduce human bias and hinder the efficiency of real-time applications. Furthermore, current studies primarily focus on scalar metrics such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity to evaluate earthquake impacts. These metrics are limited to measuring ground shaking intensity and fail to capture the spectral characteristics of ground motion. Therefore, a ground-motion and structural-oriented deep learning-based model is proposed to predict uniform hazard spectral acceleration values across 111 periods ranging from 0.01 to 20 seconds. The framework is initially trained and evaluated on 17,500 ground-motion records from the crustal Next Generation Attenuation West 2 project. Spectral acceleration values are predicted by two subsets: deep learning-based uniform hazard spectral acceleration models 1 and 2. These models effectively utilize feature information from the initial seconds of seismic waveforms, eliminating the need for empirically defined parameters. Two deep learning-based models are developed for two datasets representing two distinct broad geographical regions. Both models utilize a similar deep-learning architecture but vary in input settings and hyperparameters to account for regional seismic characteristics. To assess the model's goodness-of-fit between observed and predicted values, as well as its generalization ability, we rigorously compare the two models with the latest data from the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazard Toolbox and the Japanese Strong-Motion Earthquake Network, respectively. An explainable artificial intelligence technique has been applied to better understand the framework and analyze how individual input features influence the outputs of the trained models. Integrating cutting-edge deep learning technologies into ground motion and engineering seismology reveals the significant potential of the model in enhancing real-time early warning systems. This integration also provides valuable support to various end-users involved in seismic monitoring, facilitating well-informed decisions in both real-time and near-real-time scenarios.

SummaryWe demonstrate a method for the prediction of seismic discontinuity topography from thermochemical Mantle Circulation Models (MCMs). We find the discontinuity depth by using the peak reflectivity at each location in our mantle transition zone, taking account of compositional as well as thermal variations. We make some comparisons of our predicted topographies with those observed using SS-precursors, developing a simple smoothing filter to capture the distribution of sensitivity of a published topography model – finding that such filtering has a significant impact on the predicted discontinuity topographies. We also consider the significance of lateral variations in reflectivity or reflection amplitude in our predicted datasets and the real Earth. Finally, we consider what aspects of mantle-transition zone discontinuity structure would be matched by the predicted discontinuity structure from an Earth-like MCM – particularly the mean depths of the discontinuities, the amplitude of the topography and the shape of its spherical harmonic spectra.

SummaryA joint tomographic inversion for high-resolution P and S wave velocity models of the crust and uppermost mantle in the Middle East is performed using absolute and differential body wave travel times as well as Rayleigh wave dispersions from earthquakes and ambient noises. Checkerboard tests indicate that the models generally have a resolution of 2° x 2° down to a depth of 100 km and reaches 1° x 1° at a depth of 60 km in areas of high-density data coverage such as the Zagros collision zone. The velocity models reveal that the sedimentary layer in the region is nonuniform with a maximum thickness in the Mesopotamian foreland, Persian Gulf, southern Caspian Sea, and eastern Mediterranean Sea (∼10 km), whereas most of the Arabian Shield has no sedimentary cover. The Moho discontinuity vary considerably beneath the Arabian Plate with its shallowest extent at the Red Sea Rift (∼10 km) and its deepest under the Zagros collision zone (∼50 to 55 km). The Arabian Shield and Arabian Platform have a relatively uniform Moho depth of ∼40 km. Widespread low velocity anomalies in the upper mantle are found along the margins of the Arabian Plate and mountain ranges of the Anatolia and Iran plateaus which coincide with the Quaternary volcanism in the region. Extensive low velocity anomalies are observed in the upper mantle underneath the southern and central Red Sea Rift and the Arabian Shield, which may represent partial melt or upwelling hot asthenosphere material from the Afar plume or East African superplume. The southern Red Sea is in an active rifting stage driven by the upwelling of the asthenosphere, whereas the northern Red Sea is in a hybrid mode of active and passive rifting. The Arabian Plate drift toward the northeast is likely the driving force for the passive rifting. In the Zagros collision zone, crustal thickening with low velocity anomalies in the upper and mid crust is observed. This suggests that the present-day tectonic framework of the Zagros collision zone is the result of oceanic subduction of the Neotethyan Plate under the Eurasian Plate and subsequent continental collision of the Arabian Plate with the Eurasian Plate, during which the lower-velocity felsic upper crust of the Arabian Plate was dragged down under the higher-velocity mafic crust of the Eurasian Plate due to slab pull. The subducted slab has a diversified form with a torn-off central portion. The southern portion slopes steeper than its northern counterpart. The subducted Neotethyan slab likely underwent bending and tearing, and it eventually broke off. The remanent slab underplated to the overriding Eurasian Plate to form a thickened crust under the Zagros orogen. This study corroborates previous findings such as there being different modes of spreading in the northern and southern Red Sea rift and the presence of crustal thickening in the Zagros collision zone, and it unveils more details including asthenosphere material migration along the Red Sea rift and complex suture structure in the Zagros collision zone.

SummaryTimely identification of the triggering mechanism behind the observed seismicity in areas with multiple overlapping human activities is an important research topic that can facilitate effective measures to mitigate the seismic hazard. This task is particularly challenging when dealing with delayed operational data, uncertain focal depths, or uneven seismic monitoring coverage. Here, we propose a deep learning (DL) framework to identify which human activity triggered a certain earthquake in near real-time using only seismic waveforms as input. We use an advanced architecture, the compact convolutional transformer (CCT), to extract high-level abstract features from the three-component seismograms and then use an advanced capsule neural network to link the induced seismicity in West Texas with three potential causal factors, i.e., hydraulic fracturing (HF), shallow saltwater disposal (SWDsh), or deep saltwater disposal (SWDdp). The training data was prepared based on an established probabilistic approach that combined physics-based principles with both real and reshuffled injection data to hindcast past seismicity rates. In the end, each activity was assigned a confidence level for association at the 5 km spatial scale. Even though the training data include only 981 events, we obtain over 90% accuracy for all three causal factors for both the single- and multi-station versions of the model.

AbstractIntradecadal variations in the length-of-day (ΔLOD) can reveal changes in angular velocity interpreted as due to Earth’s core. Previous studies have identified periodic oscillations of around 6 and 8 years. To complement widely used Fourier methods, we investigate the ΔLOD record from 1962-2025 in the time domain, seeking smooth variations using cubic B-splines. We analyse in several ways. A penalised least-squares spline fit allows isolation of coherent variations from analysing the first and second derivatives. Alternatively, a smooth curve fit with least-squares splines allows removal of the long-period behaviour of ΔLOD. From this, we fit the residual with a pure cosine-wave of varying period but examine the data fits carefully in case the signal is non-stationary (for example from impulsive forcing). All approaches show clear evidence of signals with periods around 5.9 — and in the case for the time derivatives — 8.5 years. We find that the pure 5.9-year oscillation breaks down in 2010, with a one-off peak to peak separation of around 4.7 years. After 2014, the variation is once again consistent with an approximate 6 year oscillation. Such a discontinuous, non-stationary effect is not well-characterised by frequency-domain based methods. Seeking to understand this brief interruption of the 6 year oscillation, we extend the study length using a ΔLOD series from lunar occultation data extending back to 1800, and find it suitable to repeat our spline-based analysis from 1830 onwards. From this, we find the 6 year oscillation stable throughout the entire 19th and 20th century, with the exception of 1916–1920, where we observe a similar interruption of the 6 year variation by a single 4 year oscillation. The 2010 disruption to the 6-year oscillation is contemporary with changes in geomagnetic secular variation, modelled core surface flow, and inner core seismic signature. All of these events suggest a step change in core-processes around 2010.