Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 1 day 18 hours ago

Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides

Tue, 12/12/2023 - 17:50
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-212,2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Landslides are complex phenomena, causing important impacts in vulnerable areas and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.

Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production

Tue, 12/12/2023 - 13:36
Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-182,2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings, and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We're not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We studied what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.

Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Viet Nam – Part 2: An evaluation of predictability using a time-lagged cloud-resolving ensemble system

Mon, 12/11/2023 - 19:04
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Viet Nam – Part 2: An evaluation of predictability using a time-lagged cloud-resolving ensemble system
Chung-Chieh Wang, Duc Van Nguyen, Thang Van Vu, Pham Thi Thanh Nga, Pi-Yu Chuang, and Kien Ba Truong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-192,2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
CReSS well predict the rainfall fields at the short-range forecast (less than 3 days) for 10 December. These good results are due to the model having good predicts of other meteorological variables, such as surface wind fields. These prediction skills are reducing at lead time longer than 3 days. The 24-hour rainfall is very sensitive with initial conditions, not only at the lower level but also at the upper level. The ensemble-based sensitivity is decreased with the increasing lead time.

Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines

Mon, 12/11/2023 - 17:03
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197,2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System ECFAS project, presents an approach used to estimate coastal flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along the European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS Impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.

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