JGR–Atmospheres

Syndicate content Wiley: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres: Table of Contents
Table of Contents for Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. List of articles from both the latest and EarlyView issues.
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Gap‐Filled Multivariate Observations of Global Land–Climate Interactions

Tue, 12/12/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

The volume of Earth system observations has grown massively in recent decades. However, multivariate or multisource analyses at the interface of atmosphere and land are still hampered by the sparsity of ground measurements and the abundance of missing values in satellite observations. This can hinder robust multivariate analysis and introduce biases in trends. Nevertheless, gap-filling is often done univariately, which can obscure physical dependencies. Here, we apply the new multivariate gap-filling framework CLIMate data gapFILL (CLIMFILL). CLIMFILL combines state-of-the-art spatial interpolation with an iterative approach accounting for dependencies across multiple incomplete variables. CLIMFILL is applied to a set of remotely sensed and in situ observations over land that are central to observing land–atmosphere interactions and extreme events. The resulting gridded monthly time series covers 1995–2020 globally with gap-free maps of nine variables: surface layer soil moisture from European Space Agency (ESA)-Climate Change Initiative (CCI), land surface temperature and diurnal temperature range from Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, precipitation from GPM, terrestrial water storage from GRACE, ESA-CCI burned area, and snow cover fraction as well as 2-m temperature and precipitation from CRU. Time series of anomalies are reconstructed better compared to state-of-the-art interpolation. The gap-filled data set shows high correlations with ERA5-Land, and soil moisture estimates compare favorably to in situ observations from the International Soil Moisture Network. Soil moisture drying trends in ESA-CCI only agree with the reanalysis product ERA5-Land trends after gap-filling. We furthermore showcase that key features of droughts and heatwaves in major fire seasons are well represented. The data set can serve as a step toward the fusion of multivariate multisource observations.

Impacts of Biomass Burning in Southeast Asia on Tropospheric CO2 Concentration Over South China

Tue, 12/12/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

The field observations imply that the long-range transport of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by biomass burning (BB) in Southeast Asia might impact the atmospheric CO2 in South China, while the transboundary path and the contributions of long-range transport on atmospheric CO2 concentrations in South China remain poorly understood. In this study, a regional air quality model system (RAQMS) was developed by incorporating the atmospheric process of CO2 to investigate the impacts of BB in Southeast Asia on tropospheric CO2 concentration over South China in spring during 2009–2018. CO2 emissions from BB in Southeast Asia in spring varied greatly from 2009 to 2018, and high monthly mean emissions were concentrated in the west of Myanmar, the border between Myanmar, Thailand and Laos, the north of Laos, and Cambodia, with the maximum reaching 1.0 g m−2 hr−1. Higher monthly mean concentrations of near surface CO2 and tropospheric CO2 produced by BB were mainly distributed in the source regions of Southeast Asia and South China. The monthly mean tropospheric CO2 concentrations produced by BB in Southeast Asia were higher in March 2010, 2014, and 2015, which were obviously related to the interannual variation of BB emission, and affected by the atmospheric circulation as well. The contribution of BB emission in Southeast Asia to the net change of tropospheric CO2 concentration in South China presented a belt distribution from the southwest to the northeast, with a domain average of 5.7%–38.6% over South China in March 2009–2018.

The Effects of Aminium and Ammonium Cations on the Ice Nucleation Activity of K‐Feldspar

Tue, 12/12/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

Mineral dust is one of the most abundant types of ice nucleating particles in the atmosphere. During atmospheric transport, mineral dust particles can become coated with inorganic and organic solutes, which can impact their ice nucleation activity. Aminium cations formed from amines are one type of organic solute that can coat mineral dust particles in the atmosphere, but their effects on the ice nucleation activity of mineral dust have not been studied. We investigated the effects of primary, secondary, and tertiary aminium cations with methyl and ethyl groups, as well as ammonium cations, on the ice nucleation activity of K-feldspar, an important type of mineral dust, in the immersion freezing mode at low cation concentrations (0.2–20 mM) using a droplet-freezing apparatus. Ammonium cations substantially increased the ice nucleation activity of K-feldspar, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, primary aminium cations significantly reduced K-feldspar ice nucleation activity, and secondary and tertiary aminium cations had no significant effect (the effect was less than the uncertainty of our measurements). Our combined results are consistent with the following mechanisms: ammonium cations undergo ion exchange with K-feldspar, providing exposed N–H groups for hydrogen bonding with ice; primary aminium cations undergo ion exchange with K-feldspar, exposing a hydrophobic tail that is not effective at nucleating ice; secondary and tertiary aminium cations do not undergo ion exchange with K-feldspar due to steric effects caused by the multiple hydrophobic groups on the cation.

Conditions for Energetic Electrons and Gamma Rays in Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements

Mon, 12/11/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

The role of free passage distance (FPD: the distance between the avalanche region and surface detectors) in influencing the relative numbers of energetic electrons and gamma rays in Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements (TGEs) is reconsidered and focuses on the contrast between long (>100 m) versus short (<100 m) FPDs, respectively. Estimates of FPD are based on information from published balloon soundings of the electric field, from published profiles of radar reflectivity in TGEs, and from analyses of Japan winter storms. All these data sources support typical values of FPD >100 m. Neither the shortcomings of present particle detectors in distinguishing electrons from gamma rays, nor the dominance of gamma rays over electrons, are sufficient evidence to deny the robust presence of Compton electrons at FDP values greater than 100 m that have also been shown in earlier simulations as well as the present Comment. Problems with having sustained electric fields of breakeven magnitude within 100 m of the Earth's surface (in relatively rare TGEs) are identified. The resolution of these problems, and the prominent nocturnal presence of these rare events, may possibly be explained by the descent of a strong field region in a collapsing storm, and by a low cloud base that intercepts and immobilizes fast corona ions, thereby preserving the intense electric field.

Precipitation Efficiencies in a Climatology of Southern Ocean Extratropical Cyclones

Mon, 12/11/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

Precipitation efficiency refers to the amount of water that is lost from the atmosphere through precipitation compared to the available water vapor in the atmosphere. This metric plays a critical role in understanding precipitation patterns. However, calculating precipitation efficiency for extratropical cyclones can be challenging because cyclones are dynamic and move through the atmosphere as they evolve. To overcome this challenge, our study uses ERA5 reanalysis data to estimate precipitation efficiencies for 400 Southern Ocean cyclones, with a frame of reference that moves with the individual cyclones. Our findings indicate that at maximum intensity, average precipitation efficiencies reach a maximum of 60%/6 hr near the warm front where ascent rates are the largest. Typically, within 24–36 hr after cyclogenesis, all of the initial water vapor available within 500 km of a cyclone center is lost due to precipitation. However, a cyclone's precipitating phase is prolonged due to local evaporation and moisture flux convergence (MFC), which replenish the moisture lost via precipitation. Close to the cyclone center, MFC provides additional moisture from the environment into which cyclones are traveling. On average, this extends a cyclone's precipitation phase to over 60 hr after cyclogenesis. Thus, while moisture from the genesis location is quickly removed from the cyclone via precipitation, cyclones are replenished by moisture along their track, which doubles the timescale for a cyclone's precipitating phase.

Application of a Three‐Dimensional Coupled Hydrodynamic‐Ice Model to Assess Spatiotemporal Variations in Ice Cover and Underlying Mechanisms in Lake Nam Co, Tibetan Plateau, 2007–2017

Mon, 12/11/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

A three-dimensional lake-ice coupled model is used to investigate the space-time variations of ice and underlying mechanisms in Lake Nam Co (LNC), the third largest lake over Tibetan Plateau (TP), during 2007–2017. The model reasonably reproduces the in situ measured ice thickness and water temperature profile, and satellite retrieved ice coverage and lake surface temperature. Seasonally, the lake ice first forms in the eastern basin during early January, expands from east to west during January and February, covers nearly the entire LNC in March, starts melting from west to east in April, and eventually disappears in May. The eastward drift of thin ice throughout the ice-covered phase and the eastward water heat transport during the ice melting phase are key factors to determine the spatial variation of ice and freeze-thaw processes. A multiple linear regression analysis confirms that the eastward drift of thin ice can be mostly attributed to the prevailing westerly. During 2007–2017, ice volume, duration, ice-on and ice-off dates show significant interannual variations, and they are highly correlated with the surface air temperature (T 2m ) averaged over January-March, from the preceding December to May, in December and over March–May, respectively, suggesting the “cumulative effects” of T 2m . Seasonal and interannual variations of ice drift are attributed to the combined effects of wind and ice volume variations. Sensitivity analysis further points out the important impacts of ice on the lake temperature and circulation structure in winter and spring, hence the necessity of hydrodynamic-ice coupled models in large TP lakes.

Multi‐Timescale Variations of δ18O‐δ13C in Stalagmites: Insights Into Isotopic Disequilibrium and Human Activities

Mon, 12/11/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

The reasons for covariations of speleothem δ13C and δ18O remain controversial, primarily due to the limited high-resolution stalagmite records that can be compared with meteorological data. This study presents δ13C and δ18O records of two coeval, annually laminated stalagmites (TS9701 and TS9501) spanning the past ∼2000 years from Shihua cave, Beijing, northern China. The low correlation between stalagmite TS9701 records, with annual resolution, and local annual precipitation as well as mean annual temperature on interannual to decadal scales indicates that the positive covariations of δ18O and δ13C in TS9701 are partly attributed to kinetic isotope effects caused by rapid CO2 degassing. Isotopic disequilibrium between HCO3 − (aq) and drip water, induced by prior calcite precipitation on cave ceiling and stalactite surface, is another potential contributing factor. δ18O and δ13C exhibits distinct patterns on multidecadal to millennial timescales. δ18O records show notable centennial variability, aligning with El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycles. In contrast, δ13C profiles reveal a decreasing trend during the first ∼750 years, followed by an increasing trend. Prior to 1588 AD, variations in δ13C broadly correspond to changes in warm season temperature and/or moisture on centennial scale. Both δ13C records show an abrupt enrichment between 1588 and 1654 AD. Historical documents indicate that this anomaly is likely attributed to coal mining and resultant deforestation around Shihua cave during late-Ming and early-Qing Dynasties. In summary, while isotopic disequilibrium can cause high-frequency covariations of speleothem δ18O and δ13C, it does not erase the imprints of climate changes and human activities on multidecadal to millennial timescales.

Impact of Convection‐Permitting and Model Resolution on the Simulation of Mesoscale Convective System Properties Over East Asia

Mon, 12/11/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

In this study, two limited-area convection-permitting models (ICON-CPMs) and convection-parameterized models (ICON-CParMs) covering the Asia monsoon region from ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model are conducted to investigate the sensitivities of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) to convection configurations and horizontal resolutions. We find that ICON-CPMs outperform ICON-CParMs and ERA5 in number, lifetime, size, shape, orientation, effective speed, and MCS-mean precipitation. Compared to the satellite observation, MCSs in ICON-CParMs and ERA5 are oversized (30%–66%) and have longer (21%–29%) lifetimes but occur less (37%–46%) frequently. When turning off the convection scheme, performances are improved to a large extent. The underestimation of MCS-mean precipitation rates in ICON-CParMs and ERA5 are improved in ICON-CPMs. Moisture budgets show that low-level winds rather than moisture determine the strength of MCS-mean precipitation rate. The strong low-level convergence produces strong updrafts in ICON-CPMs and eventually results in strong MCS precipitation. The overly intense convective precipitation of MCSs in CPMs is an inherent problem since the scale of convection triggered at the gray zone grid spacing is larger than that in the real world. Although the MCS-mean precipitation rate is closer to the satellite observation in ICON-CPMs, it is actually a compensation for overly strong convective precipitation and overly weak stratiform precipitation. Upgrading resolution from 8 to 4 km in ICON-CPMs has benefits in simulating MCS lifetime, size, shape, orientation, and precipitation but not in MCS number.

Snow Accumulation Variability at the South Pole From 1983 to 2020, Associated With Central Tropical Pacific Forcing

Sat, 12/09/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

Despite a variety of efforts made to measure snow accumulation at the South Pole (SP), snow accumulation changes and their mechanism have not yet been fully explained. Here, SP stake farm measurements, global sea surface temperature observations, and atmospheric circulation data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 were used to investigate the annual and seasonal snow accumulation changes at the SP during 1983–2020, and their association with central tropical Pacific Sea surface temperature variations. SP annual snow accumulation decreased significantly for the 1983–2007 period at a rate of −39.7 ± 1.4 mm decade−1, but switched to a dramatically positive trend during 2008–2020 (108.7 ± 2.7 mm decade−1), with the strongest increase in the austral autumn. The switch to a dramatically upward trend can largely be attributed to a cyclonic anomaly over the South Atlantic and an anticyclonic anomaly over the Drake Passage, causing the enhanced advection of warm and wet air into the SP. These circulation patterns were generated by an atmospheric Rossby wave train forced by rapid warming in the central tropical Pacific during 2008–2020.

Air‐Sea Gas Exchange and Its Potential Influence on the Regional Fate of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the East China Marginal Sea

Sat, 12/09/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

To investigate the air-sea gas exchange and its potential influence on the regional fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the East China Marginal Seas (ECMS), which consist of the East China Sea (ECS) and Yellow Sea (YS), we collected air and surface seawater samples of this area in the summer 2018 and winter 2019, respectively. Generally, PAHs underwent a strong volatilization process in the ECMS in both summer and winter. Good correlations between wind speed and the magnitude of air-sea gas exchange were found for low molecular weight PAHs, suggesting the rate of their air-sea gas exchange was influenced by the static stability of overlying atmosphere. However, such an influence for high molecular weight PAHs was constrained by their low Henry's law constant. Dissolved concentration of PAHs in surface seawater was another key factor regulating their air-sea gas exchange, which not only influenced the rate of air-sea gas exchange but also was involved in the exchange direction. Higher air-sea gas exchange fluxes of PAHs in winter were attributed to their increasing dissolved concentrations in seawater during this season. A mass conservation analysis revealed a huge volatilization loss of PAHs from seawater to atmosphere, suggesting air-sea gas exchange might be a key process to modulate the distribution and occurrence of PAHs in the ECS and YS. Such a loss of PAHs in seawater might be compensated by the sediment resuspension, which implied that the sedimentary deposit could serve as a secondary source of PAHs in seawater and overlying atmosphere.

Aerosol Effects on Water Cloud Properties in Different Atmospheric Regimes

Sat, 12/09/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

Aerosol-cloud interaction remains one of the least understood processes in climate science arena, despite its profound impacts in radiation and water budget perturbations. The aerosol effects on clouds largely depend on aerosol characteristics. Here, we implemented 17-year (2003–2020) data set of aerosol, cloud, and meteorological factors collected over East Asia—a highly polluted region with recent decreasing trend of air pollution due to control measures—to elucidate atmospheric regime-dependent aerosol effects on water cloud properties by simultaneously accessing the response of air pollution control measures in cloud field. The study found a very close relationship between aerosol loading and cloud properties modifications in the continental region of East Asia with a significant response of air pollution control measures in the cloud field. The study further revealed that aerosols of the polluted continental atmosphere affected cloud micro- and macro-physics differently than aerosols of the clean maritime atmosphere: in the former, increased aerosol loading increased the stability under cloud base and then enhanced cloud droplet collision-coalescence process, resulting to increase cloud droplet size by decreasing cloud top height; whereas in the latter, increased aerosol loading decreased cloud droplet size without notable influence in the atmosphere thermodynamics and cloud top height. This study further showed a complex aerosol-cloud interaction process in the polluted maritime atmosphere due to the mixed effect of polluted continental and clean maritime atmospheres. In all atmospheric regimes, cloud fraction was found to increase with the increase of aerosol loading.

Jet Configurations Leading to Extreme Winter Temperatures Over Europe

Sat, 12/09/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is the main driver of winter weather in Europe and has often been described by its latitude or strength. Here, we show that the influence of the EDJ on European winter temperature extremes can be better characterized by a multiparametric perspective that accounts for additional aspects of the EDJ structure (tilt, zonal elongation, etc.). We identify four regions where extreme temperatures are distinctly associated with the EDJ: Scandinavia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Mediterranean (WMED). Overall, the anomalous horizontal advection induced by blockings during cold spells and enhanced westerlies during warm events is the main mechanism leading to extreme event occurrence. However, diabatic processes play an important role in WMED region. Both processes generate asymmetric effects in minimum and maximum temperatures contributing to higher intensities of cold than warm events. These extreme events are associated with different EDJ configurations, which typically involve perturbed EDJs during cold spells and strong tilted EDJs during warm events, but with important variations depending on the region. In almost every region, the combined effects of more than two EDJ parameters yield significant increases in the probability of cold and warm events, suggesting an oversimplification of traditional approaches based on a single EDJ parameter. We show, using logistic regression models, that, although important, latitude and intensity are often unable to discriminate unequivocally the region of extreme event occurrence, and in some regions, they do not drive the largest changes in the odds of extremes.

Issue Information

Sat, 12/09/2023 - 08:00

No abstract is available for this article.

Simulation of Temperature Extremes Over West Africa With MPAS

Thu, 12/07/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

A large ensemble of 51 simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) has been applied to assess its ability to reproduce extreme temperatures and heat waves in the area of West Africa. With its global approach the model avoids transition errors influencing the performance of limited area climate models. The MPAS simulations were driven with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice extent as the only boundary condition. The results reveal moderate cold biases in the range from −0.6° to −0.9°C for the daily mean temperature and −1.2° to −2.0°C for the area mean of the daily maximum temperature. The bias in the number of tropical nights ranges from +3 to −10 days. An underestimation by up to 50% is also present regarding the number of summer days. The heat wave duration index is underestimated regionally by 10%–60%. MPAS simulations are generally closer to the reanalysis results than they are to the observational reference. The results from long term runs and from short term runs with selected SST years are similar. Shortcomings in the reproduction of the temperature and precipitation indices found in the present investigation indicate that the global MPAS approach does provide a fidelity similar to that of the regional climate models.

Estimation of Lightning Flash Rate in Precipitation Features by Applying Shallow AI Neural Network Models to the GMI Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures

Thu, 12/07/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

The satellite-constellation passive-microwave Brightness Temperature (TB) observations, with global coverage, and more additions from upcoming CubeSats, have been mainly used in surface precipitation retrievals. However, these observations can also be used to indicate the intensity of convective systems. This study attempts to relate Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) TBs to Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) lightning flashes by using 4 years (02/2018–04/2022) of GPM Precipitation Feature (PF) database. GMI TBs are collocated to the GLM lightning counts, and to the ERA5 reanalysis 2-m air temperature in PFs. Three Artificial Intelligent Neural Network Models (AI-NN) are trained to classify PFs producing lightning in a 20-min window respectively for land, ocean, or coast. The flash rate of the determined Lightning producing PFs (LPFs) is then quantified by three other AI-NNs, each trained for one of the three regions. Though the models clearly capture the global geographical distribution of LPFs with a Probability Of Detection over 90%, high False Alarm Rates are found, ranging from 49.9% over land to 91.5% over the ocean. The importance of TB at each passive microwave channel varies regionally, corresponding to the different microphysical properties in various types of precipitation systems. The global lightning distribution is derived by applying the AI models to global PFs and is well compared to the lightning climatology from Lightning Imaging Sensor and Optical Transient Detector. This suggests that the use of passive microwave TBs can help to fill the gaps in lightning monitoring thanks to their global coverage.

Assessing Storm Surge Multiscenarios Based on Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Thu, 12/07/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

Ensemble forecasting is a promising tool to aid in making informed decisions against risks of coastal storm surges. Although tropical cyclone (TC) ensemble forecasts are commonly used in operational numerical weather prediction systems, their potential for disaster prediction has not been maximized. Here we present a novel, efficient, and practical method to utilize a large ensemble forecast of 1,000 members to analyze storm surge scenarios toward effective decision making such as evacuation planning and issuing surge warnings. We perform the simulation of TC Hagibis (2019) using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) nonhydrostatic model. The simulated atmospheric predictions were utilized as inputs for a statistical surge model named the Storm Surge Hazard Potential Index to estimate peak surge heights along the central coast of Japan. We show that Pareto-optimized solutions from an ensemble storm surge forecast can describe potential worst (maximum) and optimum (minimum) storm surge scenarios. These solutions exemplify a diversity of trade-off surge outcomes across diverse coastal locations, reflecting variations in coastal geometry, including bathymetry. For example, some of the Pareto-optimized solutions that illustrate worst surge scenarios for inner bay locations are not necessarily accountable for bringing severe surge cases in open coasts. We further emphasize that an in-depth evaluation of Pareto-optimal solutions can shed light on how meteorological variables such as track, intensity, and size of TCs influence the worst and optimum surge scenarios, which is not clearly quantified in current multiscenario assessment methods such as those used by JMA/National Hurricane Center in the United States.

Investigating the Performance of CMIP6 Seasonal Precipitation Predictions and a Grid Based Model Heterogeneity Oriented Deep Learning Bias Correction Framework

Thu, 12/07/2023 - 08:00
Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of hydro-climate variables such as precipitation, which has significant impacts on the ecosystem, human societies and water security. Global Climate Models are the major tools to simulate historical as well as future precipitation. However, due to imperfect model structures, parameters and boundary conditions, direct model outputs are subject to large uncertainty, which needs serious evaluation and bias correction before usage. In this study, seasonal precipitation predictions from 30 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and Climate Research Unit observations are used to evaluate historical precipitation climatology in global continents during 1901–2014. A grid based model heterogeneity oriented Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is proposed to correct the ensemble mean precipitation bias ratio. Besides, regression based Linear Scaling (LS), distribution based Quantile Mapping (QM) and spatial correlation CNN bias correction approaches are employed for comparison. Results of model performance evaluation indicate that generally precipitation prediction is more reliable in JJA than DJF on the global scale. Most models tend to have larger bias ratio for extreme precipitation. In addition, current CMIP6 models still have certain issues in accurate simulation of precipitation in mountainous regions and the regions affected by complex climate systems. Moreover, the proposed grid based model heterogeneity oriented CNN has better performance in ensemble mean bias correction than LS, QM, and spatial correlation CNN, which could consider the relative model performance and capture the features similar to actual climate dynamics.

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